After a hectic week of finalizing my work at the YMCA and moving into my apartment up at school, I'm finally ready to reveal my preseason top five teams. They are:
5. South Carolina
Why they will contend: I've said it before and I'll say it again- the SEC will be a run first league this year. Lucky for gamecock fans and the good people of South Carolina, Steve Spurrier has assembled a dynamic run attack led by all-star runningback Marcus Lattimore. He shredded defenses a freshman last year and will be back for a 2011-2012 campaign to do the exact same thing all over again. Lattimore will probably see a good 55% of the total touches this year- just enough to make him the primary weapon without working him too hard and probably injuring him. Another large chunk of the action will be seen by Alshawn Jeffrey, a fantastic weapon that will keep the chains moving when Lattimore needs to hit up the Gatorade cooler. Oh yeah, don't forget about the solid offensive line supporting them and an awesome front 7 on the defensive end.
Where their problems lie: Stephen Garcia, Stephen Garcia, and Stephen Garcia. It's pretty rare that you're quarterback is actually the weak spot of your offense in this day and age, but Garcia is the clear object of many pointing fingers in the college football landscape right now. His ball skills are adequate enough to keep the offense running, but his constant mental focus issues could honestly be this programs undoing. He's been suspended multiple times for off the field issues- he's not out there robbing banks or even selling rings for tattoos, people, he just does stupid stuff- and his absence could completely derail South Carolina's shot at the SEC title and beyond. Lattimore might be a monster, but if you have a quarterback starting his very first game in the middle of SEC play, things don't look great for your team.
What you can expect: The gamecocks really only have one difficult game in the first half of their schedule: playing in Athens in week 2. I think a tough running attack overpowers an already fatigued and slightly overrated Georgia team as South Carolina cruises to a 6-0 start. Three consecutive road games at Miss St, Tennessee, and Arkansas leave South Carolina at 7-2, but a 3-0 finish leaves Spurrier's squad playing in the SEC title game. South Carolina again gets blown out by superior SEC West competition as Garcia sits for personal reasons, but a 10 win season leaves South Carolina's team in the running for the SEC's second BCS bowl bid and fans happy.
4. Texas A&M
Why they will contend: There's something to said for a team that finishes hot. There's also something to be said for a team that returns most of their players. Put them together, and there's a lot that can be said for Texas A&M. A physical and experienced team, the Aggies have a hugely talented running game that should be strong enough to counter most of the problems usually associated with breaking in new quarterbacks. The defense is of a high caliber. Maybe the most important thing to note is the managebility of the schedule- while A&M does have play at Oklahoma, the more or less unanimous conference favorite, their only other road games are Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech. The Aggies will get to host preseason #9 Oklahoma State and preseason #21 Missouri along with the remaining three Big 12 teams.
Where their problems lie: There will inevitably be growing pains with this new freshman in a league like the Big 12- the real question is how big those pains will be and how long they will last. The schedule doesn't leave much room for error- top ten teams are showing up in College Station by week 4.
What you can expect: Obviously I am quite a bit higher on A&M than most other people, but I think people are underselling Texas A&M because of the overstatement of preseason #1 Oklahoma. Oklahoma is not invincible, and I think Texas A&M will beat them. The following is a highly specific and thus probably very wrong prediction, but here's what I think happens: because Oklahoma is #1 right now, they are an inevitable favorite to make a run at a BCS championship bid. However, now that the Big 12 is no longer divided into two divisions, the margin for error in the league in much smaller. Rather than having the opportunity to drop a game but still win the league via a championship game win, teams must now win the conference outright to secure their BCS bid. In other words, egular season games are worth significantly more over in Tornado Alley. Texas A&M will certainly drop a conference game- whether it's Mizzou or OSU, it doesn't really matter. I also think they lose their neutral site game to Arkansas, leaving them at 10-2. Oklahoma goes 11-1 with their only loss to A&M. The Aggies win the Big 12 despite their inferior record, and the Sooners are denied any sort of BCS bid completely because of the depth of the SEC/Pac12. Oklahoma plays in the Cotton Bowl in what is easily the best non-BCS bowl game of the year. Texas A&M goes to the BCS. Oklahoma Sooner fans are once again disappointed, regardless of the outcome of the bowl game.
Wow, now I feel like Fred Weasley calling for Ireland to win while Viktor Krum catches thes snitch. If that all comes true, I deserve to be paid for this.
3. Wisconsin
Why they will contend: Another team I'm really high on, there is a LOT to like about the Badgers this year. Where to even begin? Wisconsin has a great tradition at the runningback spot, and this year is no different. RB White returns to tear up backfields, linemen, and secondaries as he did last year when he wasn't even on top of the depth chart! His running will be augmented by probably the best offensive line in all of college football. Even new NC State transfer quarterback Russell Wilson will get in on the running action, as he is (in my opinion) almost as exciting to watch as fellow Big 10 quarterback Denard Robinson. The defense is solid great. The schedule lines up near perfectly; in fact, the Badgers don't even play a true road game until October 22 at Michigan State.
Where their problems lie: Honestly, this team might have the smallest downside in all of college football. But they did lose quite a few outstanding high draft picks. High picks translate to big talent. Big talent in the NFL draft translates to loss of talent at Camp Randall. So while Wisconsin certainly returns enough talent to make a run, they've also lost a considerable amount of defensive front seven/offensive line skill too. I also have small concerns about Russell Wilson being able to run like he did in the ACC. The guy is talented, but ACC defenses are built differently than Big 10 defenses at pretty much every level. His running ability could potentially see a drop off playing against different style defenses.
What you can expect: Wisconsin to win the Big 10 and make a repeat appearance in the Rose Bowl. Nebraska features a similar offense with a dual threat quarterback, but they dont have the skill all over the field that the Badgers do. Their October 1 game will certainly be a great College GameDay Game, but I don't expect Nebraska to leave with a win. Wisconsin will most likely be tested the most while visiting Ohio State because of the sheer power of the Buckeye trenches; look for Ohio State to possibly turn the tables on a Wisconsin team that knocked Ohio State from their undefeated perch last year. The Badgers still make it through the Big 10 and championship game with a double digit win season and find themselves in the BCS postseason once again.
2. Oklahoma
Why they will contend: Oklahoma is flat out talented. Everywhere. I could go through and list all the positions they're good at, but that would get boring fast. Imagine a football position, and and Oklahoma has skill talent there.
Where their problems lie: Hey, do you remember Sam Bradford's senior season? Yeah, me neither. Oklahoma has a nasty habit of suffering injuries and other setbacks that deplete their depth, and that nasty habit has already reared its ugly head this year. Travis Lewis, who has led the Sooners in tackles for the past three years, just broke his toe and will miss probably the first 5 or 6 weeks of the season. Senior middle linebacker Austin Box died from painkiller OD in May. Breakout talent defensive end Ronnell Lewis appears to be academically ineligble and will likely miss this season. DT Daniel Noble is giving up football due to effects of a concussion he sustained last year and never quite got over. The hits keep on coming for the Sooners. And while everyone was so hip to talk about the run game with DeMarco Murray last year, let's have a reality check. He averaged 3.3 ypc, and he was an absolute stud. That offensive line might be great for protecting the pocket, but they somehow aren't nearly as good at opening up running lanes. If they can only get 3.3 yards for Murrary, what will they manage for the poor shmuck running the ball for Oklahoma this year?
What you can expect: See above rant for Texas A&M. Oklahoma goes 11-1 but doesn't win the Big 12. Hop off the bandwagon before it crashes over a bridge and into the Red River, folks.
1. Alabama
Why they will contend: Defense, defense, defense. Five star recruits permeate through Alabama's defense in the same way that Lacrosse pennies line the streets and sidewalks of JMU: they're so ubiquitous that it's kind of obnoxious. The offense is led by absolute freak Trent Richardson, who... well, there are no words for him. He's just a freak. Go youtube his workouts, you'll see what I mean. He doesn't have the lateral movement or pure lane running abilities of a Marcus Lattimore, but Richardson has the tenaciousness of a runner who is not afraid to drop his shoulder and shirk tough defenses. And in the SEC, that toughness is probably the most important quality you can find in a runningback.
Where their problems lie: There's not much you can say that's bad about Alabama. The departure of key offensive weapons Greg McElroy and first round draft pick Julio Jones will certainly leave the offense less explosive. Alabama will have to lean on the running game to put points up on the board and hope that its offense isn't left too one dimensional.
What you can expect: Regardless of how efficient the Crimson Tide offense is, expect their defense to keep them in every single game they play. They get other SEC west hopefuls Arkansas and LSU at home, which should lead to a definite inside track to the SEC title game. I don't think Alabama goes undefeated like they did two years ago, but I do think they have the easiest shot at the SEC title. Whether they execute with a young offense and actually win remains to be seen.
I will continue my preseason coverage right up til the college football kickoff next Thursday night. Welcome to football season!
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Preseason Poll: Cracking the Top 10
Today we catch a first look at my preseason top 10.
10. Arkansas
Why they could contend: Arkansas returns a solid, deep defense that is going to help them contend for the SEC title and beyond. Quarterback Ryan Mallett is gone, but his replacement Tyler Wilson played in multiple games last year when Mallet was out and looked very competent. The receivers he will be throwing to will be excellent and elevate his game further.
Where their problems lie: For a championship quality team, the razorback offensive line will be very shaky this year. Couple that with the recent news that runningback Knile Davis will likely miss the season, and the hogs offense might become dangerously one dimensional- assuming the line can hold together long enough to even get passes off.
What you can expect: Before the Davis injury, Arkansas was actually my preseason favorite to win the SEC. When you take away a returning 1300 yard runningback in a league forecasted to be dominated by runningbacks... things get a little hairy. I still like Arkansas to probably make a top 15 finish, but they probably won't contend for the national championship like I thought they might have a week ago. Nearly every game for the Razorbacks will likely be on an extreme end of the difficulty spectrum this year; opening games against Missouri State, New Mexico, and Troy will not provide much of a challenge whatsoever, while road games at Alabama and LSU will likely be incredibly tough (I'm predicting 0-2 between the two without Davis). Home games against Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Mississippi State will likely be close, but I think Arkansas actually pulls off all three wins in albeit close fashion. Arkansas closes out the regular season at 10-2 and will likely play in the Cotton Bowl, maybe even in a week 5 regular season rematch against Texas A&M.
9. Nebraska
Why they could contend: With all this offseason's crazy headlines of scandal, coaching changes, and conference realignment, one of the more interesting stories has been lost. A Nebraska program that is as steeped in tradition as they come will play its first season in the Big 10 this year. The Cornhuskers bring with them a championship calibre defense and electrifying quarterback Taylor Martinez- a young gun that is probably as exciting a quarterback as college football has to offer.
Where their problems lie: Like many dual threat quarterbacks before him, Taylor Martinez has a big weakness, and that is... well, weakness. Martinez gets himself injured every other game it seems like, and Nebraska isn't exactly rolling in signal callers. To make matters worse, Nebraska's biggest area of concern is the offensive line, which has many holes and seams that still need to be addressed, even after a whole two years of very good recruiting. If you mix a bad offensive line with an already-injury-prone quaterback, you might not like what you get.
What you can expect: Nebraska to contend for the Big 10 title in their first year in the conference. Nebraska is in the sublimely named Legends division of the Big 12 along with Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Minnesota- not exactly hardcore competition in the 2011 football landscape. Michigan State is head and shoulders above the remaining four teams, but are the Spartans more talented than the Cornhuskers? The answer: probably not. I expect Nebraska to score a spot in the first Big 10 title game by dropping just one conference game- at Wisconsin. Look for a rematch of Nebraska's sole season loss in the Big 10 finale- and look for the badgers to rain on the Nebraska's welcoming party a second time, too.
8. LSU
Why they could contend: Les Miles stockpiles defensive talent, there's no question. LSU will once again put together a tough SEC defense that will keep them in virtually every game. Their home field advantage in Death Valley is one of the best in all of college football, and THAT could keep them in virtually every [home] game. A tough nonconference schedule means these Tigers won't be tripped up with conference play starts, too.
Where their problems lie: Several people have LSU in their top five, and I understand their reasoning. They're an SEC staple, they're good every year... blah blah blah. I see a talented defense that is also very young and prone to occasional mistakes. I see a quarterback who, frankly, I wonder how he landed the starting job at a school that won the national championship less than five years ago. I see a coach who I constantly have to wonder which side of the genius/madness line he sits on. And I'm sorry, but no team can run the table with a schedule like theirs. In addition to playing a typical SEC schedule- playing at Alabama and Miss St and having to host the likes of Florida and Arkansas- LSU will also travel to Texas to play Oregon in week one and take a trip up to Morgantown to play WVU in week 4. If they can run the table playing the twelve regular season games that they do, they deserve to win the national championship outright. No NC game... not even an SEC championship game. Just hand them the trophy.
What you can expect: I think LSU can pull out a narrow victory over Oregon with an offensive line in chaos. I think they might even pull off the win at Mississippi State, a team that could very easily sneak up on unsuspecting SEC West teams this year. But I think games in Morgantown and Tuscaloosa will be too much for Les Miles and his gang, and they will finish the season at 10-2, 7-1 in SEC play. They miss out on the SEC championship but are still in contention to be the SEC's second BCS team.
7. Oregon
Why they could contend: There was a point last year where I honestly thought that, if you could actually move the Oregon Ducks from the Pac10 to the NFC West, they might actually make the NFL playoffs. Their mile a minute offense just runs circles around people, and quarterback Darren Thomas + star runningback LaMichael James just know how to work Chip Kelly's system. Their offense puts up points, and then they put up more points, and then they coast... by continuing to score more points. The ducks averaged 48 points a game last year: they're actually aiming to top that mark this year. And if that's not enough, don't bother trying to play from behind- Oregon's secondary is stellar too.
Where their problems lie: As mediocre as Oregon's offensive line was last year for LaMichael James to run through, it's even worse this year. If the Oregon program wanted to protect the health of their star pony and make his wellbeing a priority, they would have gone out and recruited some 5 start offensive linemen. Instead, James faces the very real possibility of finding himself injured from lack of help this year along the line. On defense, the front 7 are nothing to brag about for a team with championship aspirations, and the schedule is hardly forgiving. Road games at Stanford and Washington and a very far away, technically-but-not-really neutral game in Texas against LSU could really damage Oregon's national title hopes.
What you can expect: Expect a disappoining sophomore campaign from LaMichael James. Darren Thomas is nice, but LaMichael James is what makes this offense goes. James will try to shoulder too much of the load when he simply can't do it with the offensive line the way it is. Going through a critical stretch of games (@Wash, @Stanford, USC), I think James finds himself injured and the offense stutters in his absense. He is missed sorely. Oregon drops two of its three most important conference games and surrenders control of its BCS fate to the Stanford Cardinals.
6. Stanford:
Why they could contend: Hey, have you heard of that kid Andrew Luck? Yeah. Okay.
But seriously, Stanford is loaded at all the skill positions on offense. The defense is decent. It could be better, but when your offense is what's out at the farm right now, does it really need to be?
Where their problems lie: Simply put, Stanford's play at both the offensive and defensive line is pretty mediocre. The cardinals will probably be able to manage without an elite pass rush, but if the O line can't hold up and protect Luck, this team won't be able to compete for the Pac12 title, let alone a Rose bowl berth/national championship.
What you can expect: For one, you can expect Luck to throw for at least 3000 yards in his senior year Heisman campaign. He came back for his senior year not just because he is a classy guy, but because he feels he can accomplish more at the college level before going on to (probably) become a number 1 overall draft pick. So i predict 3400 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 6 picks. Team wise, the cards go 3-0 in the nonconference. The only noteworthy team is a home game against Notre Dame in the final week of the regular season, and you can expect Luck to tear up a defense that will be touted as "tough to crack" up until this game. In conference play, there isn't much more of a challenge. Early games at Arizona and against UCLA might provide a nice early test, but I think the cardinals won't be truly tested until a late October game against USC. The trojans will fly well below the radar and use a huge home field audience to shock the cardinals, bringing them down to a 7-1 record. As for the Pac12 title, most people fathom that it will be decided on November 12. That is, of course, the day that Oregon plays at Stanford. Oregon will most likely come in guns blazing with their high octane offense, but I think their team is too banged up and faces too much of a challenge in a shootout against Stanford. The cardinals cruise to a near undefeated season and win the Pac12 title game against surprise southern champion Arizona State, but their disappointing loss to postseason-ineligble USC relegates them to the Rose Bowl rather than the National Championship.
10. Arkansas
Why they could contend: Arkansas returns a solid, deep defense that is going to help them contend for the SEC title and beyond. Quarterback Ryan Mallett is gone, but his replacement Tyler Wilson played in multiple games last year when Mallet was out and looked very competent. The receivers he will be throwing to will be excellent and elevate his game further.
Where their problems lie: For a championship quality team, the razorback offensive line will be very shaky this year. Couple that with the recent news that runningback Knile Davis will likely miss the season, and the hogs offense might become dangerously one dimensional- assuming the line can hold together long enough to even get passes off.
What you can expect: Before the Davis injury, Arkansas was actually my preseason favorite to win the SEC. When you take away a returning 1300 yard runningback in a league forecasted to be dominated by runningbacks... things get a little hairy. I still like Arkansas to probably make a top 15 finish, but they probably won't contend for the national championship like I thought they might have a week ago. Nearly every game for the Razorbacks will likely be on an extreme end of the difficulty spectrum this year; opening games against Missouri State, New Mexico, and Troy will not provide much of a challenge whatsoever, while road games at Alabama and LSU will likely be incredibly tough (I'm predicting 0-2 between the two without Davis). Home games against Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Mississippi State will likely be close, but I think Arkansas actually pulls off all three wins in albeit close fashion. Arkansas closes out the regular season at 10-2 and will likely play in the Cotton Bowl, maybe even in a week 5 regular season rematch against Texas A&M.
9. Nebraska
Why they could contend: With all this offseason's crazy headlines of scandal, coaching changes, and conference realignment, one of the more interesting stories has been lost. A Nebraska program that is as steeped in tradition as they come will play its first season in the Big 10 this year. The Cornhuskers bring with them a championship calibre defense and electrifying quarterback Taylor Martinez- a young gun that is probably as exciting a quarterback as college football has to offer.
Where their problems lie: Like many dual threat quarterbacks before him, Taylor Martinez has a big weakness, and that is... well, weakness. Martinez gets himself injured every other game it seems like, and Nebraska isn't exactly rolling in signal callers. To make matters worse, Nebraska's biggest area of concern is the offensive line, which has many holes and seams that still need to be addressed, even after a whole two years of very good recruiting. If you mix a bad offensive line with an already-injury-prone quaterback, you might not like what you get.
What you can expect: Nebraska to contend for the Big 10 title in their first year in the conference. Nebraska is in the sublimely named Legends division of the Big 12 along with Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Minnesota- not exactly hardcore competition in the 2011 football landscape. Michigan State is head and shoulders above the remaining four teams, but are the Spartans more talented than the Cornhuskers? The answer: probably not. I expect Nebraska to score a spot in the first Big 10 title game by dropping just one conference game- at Wisconsin. Look for a rematch of Nebraska's sole season loss in the Big 10 finale- and look for the badgers to rain on the Nebraska's welcoming party a second time, too.
8. LSU
Why they could contend: Les Miles stockpiles defensive talent, there's no question. LSU will once again put together a tough SEC defense that will keep them in virtually every game. Their home field advantage in Death Valley is one of the best in all of college football, and THAT could keep them in virtually every [home] game. A tough nonconference schedule means these Tigers won't be tripped up with conference play starts, too.
Where their problems lie: Several people have LSU in their top five, and I understand their reasoning. They're an SEC staple, they're good every year... blah blah blah. I see a talented defense that is also very young and prone to occasional mistakes. I see a quarterback who, frankly, I wonder how he landed the starting job at a school that won the national championship less than five years ago. I see a coach who I constantly have to wonder which side of the genius/madness line he sits on. And I'm sorry, but no team can run the table with a schedule like theirs. In addition to playing a typical SEC schedule- playing at Alabama and Miss St and having to host the likes of Florida and Arkansas- LSU will also travel to Texas to play Oregon in week one and take a trip up to Morgantown to play WVU in week 4. If they can run the table playing the twelve regular season games that they do, they deserve to win the national championship outright. No NC game... not even an SEC championship game. Just hand them the trophy.
What you can expect: I think LSU can pull out a narrow victory over Oregon with an offensive line in chaos. I think they might even pull off the win at Mississippi State, a team that could very easily sneak up on unsuspecting SEC West teams this year. But I think games in Morgantown and Tuscaloosa will be too much for Les Miles and his gang, and they will finish the season at 10-2, 7-1 in SEC play. They miss out on the SEC championship but are still in contention to be the SEC's second BCS team.
7. Oregon
Why they could contend: There was a point last year where I honestly thought that, if you could actually move the Oregon Ducks from the Pac10 to the NFC West, they might actually make the NFL playoffs. Their mile a minute offense just runs circles around people, and quarterback Darren Thomas + star runningback LaMichael James just know how to work Chip Kelly's system. Their offense puts up points, and then they put up more points, and then they coast... by continuing to score more points. The ducks averaged 48 points a game last year: they're actually aiming to top that mark this year. And if that's not enough, don't bother trying to play from behind- Oregon's secondary is stellar too.
Where their problems lie: As mediocre as Oregon's offensive line was last year for LaMichael James to run through, it's even worse this year. If the Oregon program wanted to protect the health of their star pony and make his wellbeing a priority, they would have gone out and recruited some 5 start offensive linemen. Instead, James faces the very real possibility of finding himself injured from lack of help this year along the line. On defense, the front 7 are nothing to brag about for a team with championship aspirations, and the schedule is hardly forgiving. Road games at Stanford and Washington and a very far away, technically-but-not-really neutral game in Texas against LSU could really damage Oregon's national title hopes.
What you can expect: Expect a disappoining sophomore campaign from LaMichael James. Darren Thomas is nice, but LaMichael James is what makes this offense goes. James will try to shoulder too much of the load when he simply can't do it with the offensive line the way it is. Going through a critical stretch of games (@Wash, @Stanford, USC), I think James finds himself injured and the offense stutters in his absense. He is missed sorely. Oregon drops two of its three most important conference games and surrenders control of its BCS fate to the Stanford Cardinals.
6. Stanford:
Why they could contend: Hey, have you heard of that kid Andrew Luck? Yeah. Okay.
But seriously, Stanford is loaded at all the skill positions on offense. The defense is decent. It could be better, but when your offense is what's out at the farm right now, does it really need to be?
Where their problems lie: Simply put, Stanford's play at both the offensive and defensive line is pretty mediocre. The cardinals will probably be able to manage without an elite pass rush, but if the O line can't hold up and protect Luck, this team won't be able to compete for the Pac12 title, let alone a Rose bowl berth/national championship.
What you can expect: For one, you can expect Luck to throw for at least 3000 yards in his senior year Heisman campaign. He came back for his senior year not just because he is a classy guy, but because he feels he can accomplish more at the college level before going on to (probably) become a number 1 overall draft pick. So i predict 3400 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 6 picks. Team wise, the cards go 3-0 in the nonconference. The only noteworthy team is a home game against Notre Dame in the final week of the regular season, and you can expect Luck to tear up a defense that will be touted as "tough to crack" up until this game. In conference play, there isn't much more of a challenge. Early games at Arizona and against UCLA might provide a nice early test, but I think the cardinals won't be truly tested until a late October game against USC. The trojans will fly well below the radar and use a huge home field audience to shock the cardinals, bringing them down to a 7-1 record. As for the Pac12 title, most people fathom that it will be decided on November 12. That is, of course, the day that Oregon plays at Stanford. Oregon will most likely come in guns blazing with their high octane offense, but I think their team is too banged up and faces too much of a challenge in a shootout against Stanford. The cardinals cruise to a near undefeated season and win the Pac12 title game against surprise southern champion Arizona State, but their disappointing loss to postseason-ineligble USC relegates them to the Rose Bowl rather than the National Championship.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Preseason Poll: Ranking West Virginia and Others
Preseason Poll, part 2. Let's get down to it.
15. Boise State
Why they could contend: Whoever cooked up Boise State's football strategy for the last few years is, frankly, an absolute genius. They have played in the WAC up until this year; despite what anyone tells you, this is an absolute cupcake conference. They hardly ever face a challenge in conference play. By blowing everyone out after getting one big road victory in the nonconference, they can claim that they are a team worthy of competing for the national title. Add in a quarterback that is a legitimate threat to pick apart any secondary and an incredibly tenacious defensive line, and you've got the makings of a team that garners national attention throughout the year. The genius of it is the controversy a team like Boise creates in a system that works like the BCS does. This year is no different than the others- Boise has Kellen Moore back for his senior year, and has once again put together a defense that is not national championship caliber, but it's still pretty good.
Where their problems lie: 2011 is Boise's first year in the mountain west, a conference that isn't AQ but is still pretty good. The MWC lost Utah to the Pac-10 and will lose TCU at the end of this year to the Big East in a geographically questionable conference realignment, but Boise will still face tougher conference opponents than it has in previous years. This threatens their ability to run the table like they usually do. Most notable are the losses on offense, where Kellen Moore has lost both of his best receivers. Boise's offensive coordinator bolted for a more notworthy job, so the offense may go through some growing pains in the new OC's first year. Oh, and don't forget the the AD just got canned too.
What you can expect: The preseason hype will always be around, but I think this is the year that it finally goes unjustified. Whether or not Boise wins at Georgia is irrelevant; they won't be able to make it through the season in their usual undefeated, flashy enough fashion to make it anywhere close to the national championship. Though i do think Boise pulls off a home win against TCU, Boise doesn't have the talent on both sides of the ball this year to get it done. They will drop a game somewhere along the way and fall into obscurity.
14. Mississippi State
Why they could contend: Head coach Dan Mullen has been quietly building Miss. St into a program that can some day compete with the likes of the SEC west. For 2011, he has lined up what could be an offensive juggernaut: a dual threat quarterback that could run roughshot over SEC defenses, two powerful runningbacks, and an entire stable of wide receivers. On the other side of the ball, the secondary is a huge strength and will most likely hold opponents to very low 3rd down conversion rates. Possibly most important of all, State's schedule lines up incredibly favorably. Playing in the absolutely loaded SEC West ( I have four of six SEC west teams in my top 15), Miss St gets LSU, Alabama, and eastern foe South Carolina at home. They do have to travel to Arkansas, but the schedule still lines up favorably for a run, albeit a darkhorse run, at the West's spot in the SEC championship game.
Where their problems lie: Receivers are out and power runningbacks are in this year in the SEC. It's great that State will field a good secondary, but I fear that the rest of their defense (which is very mediocre, especially by SEC standards) won't be able stop the run well enough to get opponents' offenses off the field. SEC teams will probably decide to shove the run down Mississippi State's throats, and the dawgs might be powerless to stop it.
What you can expect: If it were any other conference, Mississippi State could probably contend for the title. State probably starts off well enough, winning at Memphis and Auburn. They might even pull a big upset over LSU at home if the Tigers are too tired from previous games or looking past State to a road trip to Morgantown. A 6-0 start seems unlikely though. At best, State enters their home game against South Carolina at 5-1, and Marcus Lattimore's ground attack is way too much for the front 7 to handle. The gamecocks give the remaining teams a blueprint on how to beat the bulldogs. They open 5-1 but close 3-3 to end up 8-4, 9-4 counting their bowl game blowout of some other fourth place team.
13. West Virginia
Why they could contend: I know, I know. Nepotism. But just hear me out. Dana Holgorsen has taken absolute nobody's and made them into monstrous offensive units. Remember that preseason-last-place Oklahoma State team that led the nation in offense last year? Remember how a receiver was getting Heisman hype? Remember how right before that, C-USA team Houston somehow had the number one offense in the country, and Case Keenum was a god of football? Yeah. Dana Holgorsen. So there's some monstrous potential when you combine Holgy's offense with Geno Smith, the qb who has poise beyond his years (insert Marshall comment here). West Virginia doesn't just have a stable of receivers and runningbacks- it has an entire farm. Lots of incoming freshman runningbacks are very talented. Legendary coach Don Nehlen's grandson has also walked onto the team and is making an impact at receiver right behind playmakers like Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. There's talent on the defensive side of the ball, with defensive end Bruce Irvin stepping into a full time role this year. If you wanna know how good the juco transfer Irvin is, just know that he ranked in the top 5 nationally last year in sacks- and only played on third downs. The secondary s solid too, with returning players like Keith Tandy who ranked near the top nationally in picks last year.
Where their problems lie: There have been plenty of off the field distractions this year that could cause chinks in the armor. But much more important than the off the field issues is what's hapenning on the field. Holgorsen brings with him a brand new Air Raid, pass-happy offense that could cause some growing pains to a football team that is traditionally a run-first offense. And even if everyone has the offense down by the season's start, the defense lost nine starters, many of whom were all big-east selections. One of the best returners, Julian Miller, is being moved from the end opposite Bruce Irvin to the defensive tackle position. Miller was very effective last year, but he could be a serious question mark playing from the DT position instead of as a DE. Can a team with a relatively unproven defense survive in tandem with a fast paced offense?
What you can expect: Former head coach Bill Stewart predicted a few years ago that West Virginia will win its first national title in the 2011-2012 season. Ironically, his prediction stands a fair shot of coming true without him present; West Virginia's schedule is set up this year to put them in position to be in the national title race. If the mountaineers can get past LSU at home and not look past Maryland on the road the week before, few teams in the Big East will likely have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Holgorsen offense regardless of how the defense plays. The most difficult games are all at home- including the Backyard Brawl, which is always a wide open competition. If West Virgina beats LSU, I think they will go 11-0 all the way up to the USF game. South Florida always plays WVU incredibly hard, and if a top 5 ranked WVU team comes to Tampa, USF is going to be very fired up. That game could very easily go to the bulls. Ultimately though, WVU's season comes down to games against LSU at home and on the road in Tampa- those two games will determine the postseason fate of this team.
12. Missouri
What you can expect: Sure, Blaine Gabbert is gone... but pretty much everything else is still there. Missouri has a fantastic offensive line to protect their new quarterback. The runningbacks and receivers are solid at the top of the depth chart too, which means an all around balanced attack and less immediate pressure on the quarterback. This offense can hold pace with the other high-powered attacks in the Big 12.
Where their problems lie: The defense overall is so-so, but the secondary is particularly vulnerable. Teams like Oklahoma State will pass on the Tigers all day, and they won't be able to do much to stop them.
What you can expect: Missouri's offense can keep it in a shootout, but ultimately it's defense is going to hold it back if it can't come up with stops when they matter most. Add in a new quarterback and even with a proven offense, it could be a step back for Mizzou this year. Early tests might be too much- Missouri will easily drop at least one game in the month of September between road games at Arizona State and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State will probably win at Missouri, and I don't think the tigers can win at Texas A&M either, my darkhorse national title contender. Missouri finds one more game to lose and ends up somewhere around fourth in the Big 12 at the end of the season. Realizing they can't even compete where they're at, the Tigers don't even think about bolting for the SEC.
11. Florida State
What you can expect: Sportscenter highlights. When you couple old guard teams that many college football fans would love to see come back into their own with great skill position talent, you get sportscenter highlights all day long. Christian Ponder might be gone from Tallahassee, but the seminoles still possess great runningback/wide receiver depth and talent that will allow them to dominate most of their ACC competition. The defense isn't too shabby either. It returns several starters and will probably be one of the best in the conference.
Where their problems lie: Sure, the loss of Christian Ponder hurts, but what probably hurts more is the departure of the men that protected him. FSU had one of the best offensive lines in the country, and the line will face a serious rebuilding effort this year. Combine that with new quarterback EJ Manuel who has thrown 6 td's and 10 picks over his career, and who knows what you're gonna get? If the pocket can hold, the offense could be powerful, but it's gonna be a big if. That's why I'm not as high on them as others in the media are.
What you can expect: Expect the seminoles to take a big step toward being "back" this year. I think they will run through ACC competition, but Oklahoma will have too many athletes in their pass rush for FSU to get the win. I also think other road games in the ACC might prove tricky for the impulsive qb Manuel, and teams that are physical up front like Clemson and Boston College might be too much on the road. FSU goes 10-2 in the regular season, wins the ACC championship game, and loses the ensuing BCS game.
15. Boise State
Why they could contend: Whoever cooked up Boise State's football strategy for the last few years is, frankly, an absolute genius. They have played in the WAC up until this year; despite what anyone tells you, this is an absolute cupcake conference. They hardly ever face a challenge in conference play. By blowing everyone out after getting one big road victory in the nonconference, they can claim that they are a team worthy of competing for the national title. Add in a quarterback that is a legitimate threat to pick apart any secondary and an incredibly tenacious defensive line, and you've got the makings of a team that garners national attention throughout the year. The genius of it is the controversy a team like Boise creates in a system that works like the BCS does. This year is no different than the others- Boise has Kellen Moore back for his senior year, and has once again put together a defense that is not national championship caliber, but it's still pretty good.
Where their problems lie: 2011 is Boise's first year in the mountain west, a conference that isn't AQ but is still pretty good. The MWC lost Utah to the Pac-10 and will lose TCU at the end of this year to the Big East in a geographically questionable conference realignment, but Boise will still face tougher conference opponents than it has in previous years. This threatens their ability to run the table like they usually do. Most notable are the losses on offense, where Kellen Moore has lost both of his best receivers. Boise's offensive coordinator bolted for a more notworthy job, so the offense may go through some growing pains in the new OC's first year. Oh, and don't forget the the AD just got canned too.
What you can expect: The preseason hype will always be around, but I think this is the year that it finally goes unjustified. Whether or not Boise wins at Georgia is irrelevant; they won't be able to make it through the season in their usual undefeated, flashy enough fashion to make it anywhere close to the national championship. Though i do think Boise pulls off a home win against TCU, Boise doesn't have the talent on both sides of the ball this year to get it done. They will drop a game somewhere along the way and fall into obscurity.
14. Mississippi State
Why they could contend: Head coach Dan Mullen has been quietly building Miss. St into a program that can some day compete with the likes of the SEC west. For 2011, he has lined up what could be an offensive juggernaut: a dual threat quarterback that could run roughshot over SEC defenses, two powerful runningbacks, and an entire stable of wide receivers. On the other side of the ball, the secondary is a huge strength and will most likely hold opponents to very low 3rd down conversion rates. Possibly most important of all, State's schedule lines up incredibly favorably. Playing in the absolutely loaded SEC West ( I have four of six SEC west teams in my top 15), Miss St gets LSU, Alabama, and eastern foe South Carolina at home. They do have to travel to Arkansas, but the schedule still lines up favorably for a run, albeit a darkhorse run, at the West's spot in the SEC championship game.
Where their problems lie: Receivers are out and power runningbacks are in this year in the SEC. It's great that State will field a good secondary, but I fear that the rest of their defense (which is very mediocre, especially by SEC standards) won't be able stop the run well enough to get opponents' offenses off the field. SEC teams will probably decide to shove the run down Mississippi State's throats, and the dawgs might be powerless to stop it.
What you can expect: If it were any other conference, Mississippi State could probably contend for the title. State probably starts off well enough, winning at Memphis and Auburn. They might even pull a big upset over LSU at home if the Tigers are too tired from previous games or looking past State to a road trip to Morgantown. A 6-0 start seems unlikely though. At best, State enters their home game against South Carolina at 5-1, and Marcus Lattimore's ground attack is way too much for the front 7 to handle. The gamecocks give the remaining teams a blueprint on how to beat the bulldogs. They open 5-1 but close 3-3 to end up 8-4, 9-4 counting their bowl game blowout of some other fourth place team.
13. West Virginia
Why they could contend: I know, I know. Nepotism. But just hear me out. Dana Holgorsen has taken absolute nobody's and made them into monstrous offensive units. Remember that preseason-last-place Oklahoma State team that led the nation in offense last year? Remember how a receiver was getting Heisman hype? Remember how right before that, C-USA team Houston somehow had the number one offense in the country, and Case Keenum was a god of football? Yeah. Dana Holgorsen. So there's some monstrous potential when you combine Holgy's offense with Geno Smith, the qb who has poise beyond his years (insert Marshall comment here). West Virginia doesn't just have a stable of receivers and runningbacks- it has an entire farm. Lots of incoming freshman runningbacks are very talented. Legendary coach Don Nehlen's grandson has also walked onto the team and is making an impact at receiver right behind playmakers like Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. There's talent on the defensive side of the ball, with defensive end Bruce Irvin stepping into a full time role this year. If you wanna know how good the juco transfer Irvin is, just know that he ranked in the top 5 nationally last year in sacks- and only played on third downs. The secondary s solid too, with returning players like Keith Tandy who ranked near the top nationally in picks last year.
Where their problems lie: There have been plenty of off the field distractions this year that could cause chinks in the armor. But much more important than the off the field issues is what's hapenning on the field. Holgorsen brings with him a brand new Air Raid, pass-happy offense that could cause some growing pains to a football team that is traditionally a run-first offense. And even if everyone has the offense down by the season's start, the defense lost nine starters, many of whom were all big-east selections. One of the best returners, Julian Miller, is being moved from the end opposite Bruce Irvin to the defensive tackle position. Miller was very effective last year, but he could be a serious question mark playing from the DT position instead of as a DE. Can a team with a relatively unproven defense survive in tandem with a fast paced offense?
What you can expect: Former head coach Bill Stewart predicted a few years ago that West Virginia will win its first national title in the 2011-2012 season. Ironically, his prediction stands a fair shot of coming true without him present; West Virginia's schedule is set up this year to put them in position to be in the national title race. If the mountaineers can get past LSU at home and not look past Maryland on the road the week before, few teams in the Big East will likely have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Holgorsen offense regardless of how the defense plays. The most difficult games are all at home- including the Backyard Brawl, which is always a wide open competition. If West Virgina beats LSU, I think they will go 11-0 all the way up to the USF game. South Florida always plays WVU incredibly hard, and if a top 5 ranked WVU team comes to Tampa, USF is going to be very fired up. That game could very easily go to the bulls. Ultimately though, WVU's season comes down to games against LSU at home and on the road in Tampa- those two games will determine the postseason fate of this team.
12. Missouri
What you can expect: Sure, Blaine Gabbert is gone... but pretty much everything else is still there. Missouri has a fantastic offensive line to protect their new quarterback. The runningbacks and receivers are solid at the top of the depth chart too, which means an all around balanced attack and less immediate pressure on the quarterback. This offense can hold pace with the other high-powered attacks in the Big 12.
Where their problems lie: The defense overall is so-so, but the secondary is particularly vulnerable. Teams like Oklahoma State will pass on the Tigers all day, and they won't be able to do much to stop them.
What you can expect: Missouri's offense can keep it in a shootout, but ultimately it's defense is going to hold it back if it can't come up with stops when they matter most. Add in a new quarterback and even with a proven offense, it could be a step back for Mizzou this year. Early tests might be too much- Missouri will easily drop at least one game in the month of September between road games at Arizona State and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State will probably win at Missouri, and I don't think the tigers can win at Texas A&M either, my darkhorse national title contender. Missouri finds one more game to lose and ends up somewhere around fourth in the Big 12 at the end of the season. Realizing they can't even compete where they're at, the Tigers don't even think about bolting for the SEC.
11. Florida State
What you can expect: Sportscenter highlights. When you couple old guard teams that many college football fans would love to see come back into their own with great skill position talent, you get sportscenter highlights all day long. Christian Ponder might be gone from Tallahassee, but the seminoles still possess great runningback/wide receiver depth and talent that will allow them to dominate most of their ACC competition. The defense isn't too shabby either. It returns several starters and will probably be one of the best in the conference.
Where their problems lie: Sure, the loss of Christian Ponder hurts, but what probably hurts more is the departure of the men that protected him. FSU had one of the best offensive lines in the country, and the line will face a serious rebuilding effort this year. Combine that with new quarterback EJ Manuel who has thrown 6 td's and 10 picks over his career, and who knows what you're gonna get? If the pocket can hold, the offense could be powerful, but it's gonna be a big if. That's why I'm not as high on them as others in the media are.
What you can expect: Expect the seminoles to take a big step toward being "back" this year. I think they will run through ACC competition, but Oklahoma will have too many athletes in their pass rush for FSU to get the win. I also think other road games in the ACC might prove tricky for the impulsive qb Manuel, and teams that are physical up front like Clemson and Boston College might be too much on the road. FSU goes 10-2 in the regular season, wins the ACC championship game, and loses the ensuing BCS game.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Preseason Poll: 20-16
Today I kick off my four part mini series on my preseason poll. This is not based on the Harris Poll, Coaches Poll, AP Poll, or ESPN poll. Instead, this is based off my own research, opinions, and trends that I note. For each team, I will highlight some strengths, some weaknesses, and what you should probably expect from the team over the course of the season. The poll will ascend through the week from the bottom rung all the way to my top 5, which will be revealed early next week. Without further ado:
20. South Florida
Why they could contend: The Bulls home in Tampa places them in one of the very best recruiting grounds in the entire country, and their rosters usually show it. They are constantly loaded with top-notch, speedy talent on the defensive side of the ball. This year is no exception, as USF looks to be one of the top two defenses in the Big East. Seasoned quarterback BJ Daniels is a dual threat who looks to finally be putting everything together the right way. A pretty favorable schedule could net the bulls their first Big East title.
Where their problems lie: South Florida has a nasty habit of looking like a national title hopeful in the beginning of their season but more like a FCS practice squad by the end. Second year coach Skip Holtz shows some promise, but he may need a couple more years before he really has the program soaring. And oh yeah- this is the second or third year I've thought BJ Daniels was really gonna put it all together.
What you can expect: I think South Florida comes out swinging and pulls an absolutely massive shocker in South Bend. Now in the national spotlight, the bulls coast through September playing their relatively-timid-after-we-get-through-Notre-Dame nonconference schedule. The bulls prove the doubters wrong again by winning at Pitt and grab their first top 20 ranking in quite some time as the calendar heads into October. The bulls win and win right up until the beach-accustomed team pays a November trip to upstate New York. Looking forward to the upcoming week's Miami game, the relatively young squad gets tripped up by Syracuse, and the bulls unravel at the end yet again by dropping three of their last four games. They still finish the season with an improved record and a near-the-top-of-the-big-east finish, but Bulls fans still aren't appeased with their teams performance.
19. Virginia Tech
Why they could contend: I don't exactly expect a loaded ACC this year (don't be surprised if the ACC never gets more than two teams in the top 25), and Virginia Tech pulls enough quality talent to put forward a conference contender every year. Freakishly fast runningback David Wilson returns to the squad and will likely anchor a young offense with a whiplash-inducing ground attack. New hokie quarterback Logan Thomas will be a powerful force to be reckoned with too, standing at 6 feet 6 inches. This team will challenge for the ACC title just as they always do.
Where their problems lie: I make it no secret that I kind of despise Virginia Tech fans. It comes with the territory of growing up a WVU fan, but it's also because they think that their team walks on water every year. Fans of the team from Blacksburg: put a serious lid on it this year, or you might look foolish. The offensive line has a few issues that need to be worked out before David Wilson breaks off 40 yards every other play like he is probably capable of. Logan Thomas has potential- but he also has 0 games that he has started in. Most importantly, the entire defensive line will have to be replaced- a defensive line that also anchor's Frank Beamer's notorious "Beamer Ball" special teams. I don't see Tech dropping any games to FCS opponents in Lane Stadium this year (though App State is always pretty good, and they have slayed a Goliath before), but I also don't see them coming close to beating Florida State in a potential Championship rematch from last year either.
What you can expect: I heard a rumor that some SOS system actually ranked Virginia Tech's schedule the easiest in all of FBS football. It wouldn't surprise me- they play 8 ACC games, two C-USA games, one sunbelt team, and one FCS opponent. Both of the CUSA games are away, so look for Marshall/ECU to try to spring an upset. The hokies might run the table at home this year- the only real threat to beat them is Clemson, which has a reasonable shot- but their road schedule is a different story. I think Tech drops their game at Georgia Tech, and don't be surprised if this is finally the year UVA gets back into the UVA-VT rivalry. Tech is 9-4 after losing the ACC championship to Florida State and gets blown out for the second year in a row in their postseason bowl game. Hokie nation still thinks their team was the true national champion... if you just cut all those losses off the record.
18. Ohio State
Why they could contend: Despite the circus that has been the Buckeye offseason, Ohio State has great line play set up for this year. All-American line play, probably. They will win the battles in the trenches, and that always puts you in great position to win football games.
Where their problems lie: Where to even begin... new coach. New quarterback. New scandals constantly unfolding in the national spotlight. The pressure is seriously on this team to not suck like they probably should after everything that has happened in Columbus this last nine months or so. Don't forget the nice chunk of talent that can't play for the first five games, including a critical conference game at home against Michigan State.
What you can expect: Gauging how Ohio State is going to do over the entire upcoming football season is kind of like predicting the next country to stage a mass revolt using twitter: you might be able to take a couple educated guesses, but you're ultimately taking completely random shots in the dark. This unit could come together through all the crap that's happened, or it could completely wilt under pressure with a new head coach and very few leaders. I honestly have no idea. The one thing they do have is a lot of luck when it comes to who is schedule and when they're scheduled. Their first two games are cupcakes. The third game is long haul to the University of Miami (Fl), which could prove too challenging for the team to overcome... if Miami weren't experiencing their own hard times with a new coach. Colorado probably doesn't have the talent upfront to beat OSU in week four, and I don't think Michigan State has a credible enough pass rush threat to beat even an undermanned Ohio State team in Columbus. So it is incredibly possible that Ohio State escapes their first-five dilemna unscathed. Even a home game against Wisconsin seems a bit lucky- the buckeye's biggest strength is their line play, which could be solid enough to stop the badger run attack. Games at Nebraska and Illinois could prove challenging, but ultimately I think Ohio State ends up with a 10-2, non-BCS season. They even follow it up with a bowl win. Their crappy new coach will be made out to be a Messiah, obnoxious First Take interviews and all. Gag me now.
17. Arizona State
Why they could contend: Arizona State is a good team with a national-championship caliber defense. They are flying pretty far below the radar, as they weren't too good last year (though they came very close to springing some huge upsets quite a few times), and just missed out on entrance into the preseason coaches' poll. Expect any coach worth his tenure to turn that into motivation for any team with remote amounts of potential.
Where their problems lie: Here's one you don't hear a whole lot: discipline. If you ever watched the sun devils play last year, they are a horribly disciplined team. They rack up penalties faster than James Harrison racks up fines for illegal hits, and they're just as angry about it (and just as unwilling to do something about it, too). If this team wants to contend for the Pac-12 title, it has got to stop picking up penalties at inopportune moments. You can bet Stanford and Oregon won't be forgiving.
What you can expect: For one, look for a big sun devil test when Mizzou comes to town on a Friday night in week two. If Arizona can make a big time home stand, I guarentee they crack the top 25. Win again on the road the following week at Illinois, and you've earned the top 20. The problem is, I don't think this team will be disciplined enough to follow up a huge home shocker with a big road victory. This team opens 2-1, squeaks by USC, and bests Oregon State. At 4-1, you're still talking about a fringe top 20 team. They drop a game on the road to hungry newcomer Utah and don't stand a chance at lightning-pace Oregon. Another game is dropped at UCLA... State makes up for the poor October play by winning their big rivalry game against Arizona at home, but they still only finish 8-4. The sun devils almost squander a big halftime lead in their bowl game as the offense struggles in the second half under a new quarterback that's still being broken in, even in late december. They hang on to win, but only because of the high caliber of their defense. Still, wins in both the postseason bowl AND the main rivalry game, in addition to a much improved 9-4 season, leaves sun devil fans satisfied.
16. Oklahoma State
Why they could contend: All Oklahoma State did last year was have the number one offense in the country when they were picked to finish at the bottom of the big 12. Returning qb Brandon Weeden and returning receiver phenom Justin Blackmon are great players and even better in tandem. They're playing in a system that lets them flourish while putting up rediculous numbers. The entire offensive line is a good unit too- look for their offensive line to lead the country in sacks allowed (a good unit + a system that employs lots of quick passes). And while everybody is talking about the offense, don't sleep on the Cowboys' secondary- it's not too bad either.
Where their problems lie: The secondary is about all that's solid on the Oklahoma State defense. Running and play action passes are going to absolutely kill them every time. Ironically, the cowboys might need to look to shootouts to wins quite a few games this year.
What you can expect: The 2011 Oklahoma State Cowboys are going to be an experiment in System vs Coach. Can the system really flourish without the mastermind of a coach that engineered it? Dana Hologorsen left Stillwater to become the Head-Coach-in-Waiting/Offensive Coordinator/actually-the-head-coach-after-all at West Virginia. Weeden and Blackmon know the Air Raid offense well enough by now to run it efficiently and effectively without Coach Holgorsen around to hold their hand as they practice, but I still think that the offense sees some significant dropoff. They're going to be good, but not nearly as good as the pundits think they will be. In a pretty loaded would-have-been-the-big-12-south, expect a step back toward mediocrity. I think they finish 8-4 in a difficult conference year and go on to beat some scrub team in a bowl game.
Keep it here to find out if I allow my Mountaineers to crack the top 10 of my poll. Or maybe they didn't make it at all? You'll just have to wait to find out.
20. South Florida
Why they could contend: The Bulls home in Tampa places them in one of the very best recruiting grounds in the entire country, and their rosters usually show it. They are constantly loaded with top-notch, speedy talent on the defensive side of the ball. This year is no exception, as USF looks to be one of the top two defenses in the Big East. Seasoned quarterback BJ Daniels is a dual threat who looks to finally be putting everything together the right way. A pretty favorable schedule could net the bulls their first Big East title.
Where their problems lie: South Florida has a nasty habit of looking like a national title hopeful in the beginning of their season but more like a FCS practice squad by the end. Second year coach Skip Holtz shows some promise, but he may need a couple more years before he really has the program soaring. And oh yeah- this is the second or third year I've thought BJ Daniels was really gonna put it all together.
What you can expect: I think South Florida comes out swinging and pulls an absolutely massive shocker in South Bend. Now in the national spotlight, the bulls coast through September playing their relatively-timid-after-we-get-through-Notre-Dame nonconference schedule. The bulls prove the doubters wrong again by winning at Pitt and grab their first top 20 ranking in quite some time as the calendar heads into October. The bulls win and win right up until the beach-accustomed team pays a November trip to upstate New York. Looking forward to the upcoming week's Miami game, the relatively young squad gets tripped up by Syracuse, and the bulls unravel at the end yet again by dropping three of their last four games. They still finish the season with an improved record and a near-the-top-of-the-big-east finish, but Bulls fans still aren't appeased with their teams performance.
19. Virginia Tech
Why they could contend: I don't exactly expect a loaded ACC this year (don't be surprised if the ACC never gets more than two teams in the top 25), and Virginia Tech pulls enough quality talent to put forward a conference contender every year. Freakishly fast runningback David Wilson returns to the squad and will likely anchor a young offense with a whiplash-inducing ground attack. New hokie quarterback Logan Thomas will be a powerful force to be reckoned with too, standing at 6 feet 6 inches. This team will challenge for the ACC title just as they always do.
Where their problems lie: I make it no secret that I kind of despise Virginia Tech fans. It comes with the territory of growing up a WVU fan, but it's also because they think that their team walks on water every year. Fans of the team from Blacksburg: put a serious lid on it this year, or you might look foolish. The offensive line has a few issues that need to be worked out before David Wilson breaks off 40 yards every other play like he is probably capable of. Logan Thomas has potential- but he also has 0 games that he has started in. Most importantly, the entire defensive line will have to be replaced- a defensive line that also anchor's Frank Beamer's notorious "Beamer Ball" special teams. I don't see Tech dropping any games to FCS opponents in Lane Stadium this year (though App State is always pretty good, and they have slayed a Goliath before), but I also don't see them coming close to beating Florida State in a potential Championship rematch from last year either.
What you can expect: I heard a rumor that some SOS system actually ranked Virginia Tech's schedule the easiest in all of FBS football. It wouldn't surprise me- they play 8 ACC games, two C-USA games, one sunbelt team, and one FCS opponent. Both of the CUSA games are away, so look for Marshall/ECU to try to spring an upset. The hokies might run the table at home this year- the only real threat to beat them is Clemson, which has a reasonable shot- but their road schedule is a different story. I think Tech drops their game at Georgia Tech, and don't be surprised if this is finally the year UVA gets back into the UVA-VT rivalry. Tech is 9-4 after losing the ACC championship to Florida State and gets blown out for the second year in a row in their postseason bowl game. Hokie nation still thinks their team was the true national champion... if you just cut all those losses off the record.
18. Ohio State
Why they could contend: Despite the circus that has been the Buckeye offseason, Ohio State has great line play set up for this year. All-American line play, probably. They will win the battles in the trenches, and that always puts you in great position to win football games.
Where their problems lie: Where to even begin... new coach. New quarterback. New scandals constantly unfolding in the national spotlight. The pressure is seriously on this team to not suck like they probably should after everything that has happened in Columbus this last nine months or so. Don't forget the nice chunk of talent that can't play for the first five games, including a critical conference game at home against Michigan State.
What you can expect: Gauging how Ohio State is going to do over the entire upcoming football season is kind of like predicting the next country to stage a mass revolt using twitter: you might be able to take a couple educated guesses, but you're ultimately taking completely random shots in the dark. This unit could come together through all the crap that's happened, or it could completely wilt under pressure with a new head coach and very few leaders. I honestly have no idea. The one thing they do have is a lot of luck when it comes to who is schedule and when they're scheduled. Their first two games are cupcakes. The third game is long haul to the University of Miami (Fl), which could prove too challenging for the team to overcome... if Miami weren't experiencing their own hard times with a new coach. Colorado probably doesn't have the talent upfront to beat OSU in week four, and I don't think Michigan State has a credible enough pass rush threat to beat even an undermanned Ohio State team in Columbus. So it is incredibly possible that Ohio State escapes their first-five dilemna unscathed. Even a home game against Wisconsin seems a bit lucky- the buckeye's biggest strength is their line play, which could be solid enough to stop the badger run attack. Games at Nebraska and Illinois could prove challenging, but ultimately I think Ohio State ends up with a 10-2, non-BCS season. They even follow it up with a bowl win. Their crappy new coach will be made out to be a Messiah, obnoxious First Take interviews and all. Gag me now.
17. Arizona State
Why they could contend: Arizona State is a good team with a national-championship caliber defense. They are flying pretty far below the radar, as they weren't too good last year (though they came very close to springing some huge upsets quite a few times), and just missed out on entrance into the preseason coaches' poll. Expect any coach worth his tenure to turn that into motivation for any team with remote amounts of potential.
Where their problems lie: Here's one you don't hear a whole lot: discipline. If you ever watched the sun devils play last year, they are a horribly disciplined team. They rack up penalties faster than James Harrison racks up fines for illegal hits, and they're just as angry about it (and just as unwilling to do something about it, too). If this team wants to contend for the Pac-12 title, it has got to stop picking up penalties at inopportune moments. You can bet Stanford and Oregon won't be forgiving.
What you can expect: For one, look for a big sun devil test when Mizzou comes to town on a Friday night in week two. If Arizona can make a big time home stand, I guarentee they crack the top 25. Win again on the road the following week at Illinois, and you've earned the top 20. The problem is, I don't think this team will be disciplined enough to follow up a huge home shocker with a big road victory. This team opens 2-1, squeaks by USC, and bests Oregon State. At 4-1, you're still talking about a fringe top 20 team. They drop a game on the road to hungry newcomer Utah and don't stand a chance at lightning-pace Oregon. Another game is dropped at UCLA... State makes up for the poor October play by winning their big rivalry game against Arizona at home, but they still only finish 8-4. The sun devils almost squander a big halftime lead in their bowl game as the offense struggles in the second half under a new quarterback that's still being broken in, even in late december. They hang on to win, but only because of the high caliber of their defense. Still, wins in both the postseason bowl AND the main rivalry game, in addition to a much improved 9-4 season, leaves sun devil fans satisfied.
16. Oklahoma State
Why they could contend: All Oklahoma State did last year was have the number one offense in the country when they were picked to finish at the bottom of the big 12. Returning qb Brandon Weeden and returning receiver phenom Justin Blackmon are great players and even better in tandem. They're playing in a system that lets them flourish while putting up rediculous numbers. The entire offensive line is a good unit too- look for their offensive line to lead the country in sacks allowed (a good unit + a system that employs lots of quick passes). And while everybody is talking about the offense, don't sleep on the Cowboys' secondary- it's not too bad either.
Where their problems lie: The secondary is about all that's solid on the Oklahoma State defense. Running and play action passes are going to absolutely kill them every time. Ironically, the cowboys might need to look to shootouts to wins quite a few games this year.
What you can expect: The 2011 Oklahoma State Cowboys are going to be an experiment in System vs Coach. Can the system really flourish without the mastermind of a coach that engineered it? Dana Hologorsen left Stillwater to become the Head-Coach-in-Waiting/Offensive Coordinator/actually-the-head-coach-after-all at West Virginia. Weeden and Blackmon know the Air Raid offense well enough by now to run it efficiently and effectively without Coach Holgorsen around to hold their hand as they practice, but I still think that the offense sees some significant dropoff. They're going to be good, but not nearly as good as the pundits think they will be. In a pretty loaded would-have-been-the-big-12-south, expect a step back toward mediocrity. I think they finish 8-4 in a difficult conference year and go on to beat some scrub team in a bowl game.
Keep it here to find out if I allow my Mountaineers to crack the top 10 of my poll. Or maybe they didn't make it at all? You'll just have to wait to find out.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Don't Expect These Teams in my Preseason Rankings
Welcome to my week dedicated to the anticipation many of us are feeling for the beginning of the college football season! With the publication of this year's preseason coaches poll, I thought I'd go through and highlight my own top teams to watch going into the preseason. I'll be doing 5 a day for the remainder of the week in ascending order. For each team, I'll name why they're ranked where they are, what's holding them back, and what you can expect from them over the course of the season- all my own humble opinions of course. Everyone should feel free to disagree. Also, notice that there's a new poll on the blog- something I have neglected for lack of content this summer- so take a look and voice your opinions.
While I'll be taking a look at my top 20 for the rest of the week, I wanted to talk a little bit today about teams you shouldn't expect to see in my rankings. Because of the scale of the top 25 polls, many voters often fill the voids with power teams that are traditionally good from year to year because of the lack of information. Sometimes they just carry teams over that were successful the previous year- it's just the nature of the game. So I spent the better part of the last seven days compiling information, and now I'm ready to give you the filler teams from most polls that you should ignore, at least for now, until they prove themselves in the coming weeks:
TEXAS
Why they could contend: It's really the same reason why they could contend every year. Texas lies in the heart of one of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country. When you mix four and five star recruits with top-of-the-line facilities, you always have the ability to be a pretty solid team. Many of the same pieces are still in place from last year too, which means more experienced players are around to improve on the Longhorn's 2010 5-7 campaign.
Why they won't contend: What's changed since last year? Coaches have been switched around, but it's primarily the same offense, same defense, and most of the same players that didn't jel. Mainly, it's the presence of quarterback Garrett Gilbert, who just isn't that great of a leader or player. Unlike most bigtime signalcallers, Gilbert really lacks the inner fire that drive most of these college football stars... watching him is not exciting. He lacks a lot of confidence, and that carries over and affects the play of his teammates. A loaded quarterback stable, including Colt McCoy's little brother, is going to put some pressure on Gilbert to play better this year, but don't expect much to be different.
What you should expect: Expect the record to be a little better; don't expect the team to be much better. I expect Texas to drop at least three conference games (expect the longhorns to go 1-3 out of games @Missouri, @A&M, Oklahoma, OkSt) plus their road game at UCLA. An 8-4 record is enough to get Texas into a lower tier bowl game, but I expect a fired up team with less talent to come in and steal a victory. Texas will end its season 8-5: a step in the right direction after a losing season for Mack Brown but still far from where expectations lie in the heart of longhorn nation.
Notre Dame
Why they could contend: The installation of former Cincinatti coach Brian Kelly has Notre Dame heading toward a Recruiting Rennaissance. In many ways, BK has been made out to be the Messiah that the Fighting Irish need, and that could still very well prove true. BK fervor has attracted a lot of young talent to South Bend, and the defense that Notre Dame puts forth should be above average this year. On the offensive side of the ball, Brian Kelly is a mastermind of putting points on the board, and any offense he's commanding has to be given some respect.
Why they won't contend: Departures from last year's offense already have hurt the Irish. They retain their best wide receiver, but serious off the field/mentality issues may threaten his ability to contribute. Possibly the most worrisome preseason problem plaguing the Notre Dame offense is the giant quarterback controversy. Four different athletes are all competing for their chance to call the signals for the offense, but Brian Kelly has decided to not make a decision in the immediate future. Instead, he will wait until ten days before the team's first game to decide who will be leading the offense- a highly risky move that could create serious controversy and consternation in the backfield.
What you should expect: Kelly is building Notre Dame into a contender, but the Irish aren't quite there yet. Look for a very underrated and speedy South Florida team to come in and shock Notre Dame in the very first weekend, setting the home upset tone for the remainder of the year. The Irish also host, among other teams, Boston College, USC, Air Force, and Michigan State. I expect them to go 2-2 against these four teams. I also think they will drop games at Pitt and Stanford, thus finishing the season at 7-5. Though technically it's a worse finish than their 8-4 mark from last year, Kelly is going in the right direction and the program will reascend to greater heights in the next few years.
TCU
Why they could contend: Coach Gary Patterson has escalated TCU's football program to a new level. They are constantly in the national spotlight and have established a tradition of excellence in the last 10-15 years. This much is obvious, seeing as they were recently invited to join an AQ conference. The AQ invitation only helped to create more hype around the program, and recruits have been flooding to the horned frogs in waves. Patterson has consistenly put together tough defenses that are capable of allowing this team to hang around with anyone.
Why they won't contend: Don't get me wrong- the defense is still good. But it's not quite the same as it was in the previous few years. The linebacker positions are still a huge strength for the horned frogs, but heavy depletions on the front d-line as well as in the secondary have left the defense slightly more vulnerable. I'm not saying the recruits aren't capable in their own right- they certainly are- but this won't be the same defense that halted the insane power-running game of Wisconsin in last year's Rose Bowl. On the other side of the ball, celebrated TCU quarterback Andy Dalton has graduated and declared for the NFL draft, and the heir to his position is probably not quite as skilled as he was at running the TCU offense. Finally, the Mountain West did the frogs no scheduling favors in their last year in the conference before their move to the big east. TCU must face an early challenge at Baylor, and travel to both Boise and San Diego State. These and other road challenges could put a damper on the expectations for Patterson's squad; a perfect season repeat is pretty unlikely.
What you should expect: TCU probably drops two games at the minimum, probably even three. They still get to go to a bowl game, where they will likely dominate some lesser AQ team from the middle of their conference. TCU grabs another 10+ win season as they leave the mountain west for the big east, but the comparison to last year's undefeated Rose Bowl winners leaves frog fans yearning for just a little bit more.
Michigan State
Why they could contend: Quarterback Kirk Cousins in a winner. The Spartan stable of runningbacks is formiddable, there's no question. Though this team did get absolutely walloped by an angry Alabama team in last year's Capital One bowl, they were still a very solid group that shared the Big Ten title. A big portion of that experienced, skilled team returns. So why wouldn't they be able to put it together this year?
Why they won't contend: The Spartans took a pretty big hit to their front 7 on the defensive side of the ball, which might make many of their games this year into more of a shootout. Cousins and his runningbacks are very good, but at the same time... if you had to choose an offense to win you a shootout, would Michigan State's immediately come to mind? In addition, much of MSU's success last year was thanks to an incredibly favorable schedule. As nice as last year's was, this year's is just the opposite. The Spartans play some serious cupcakes in their non-conference, and probably won't be ready for their first road game at Notre Dame. Don't bet on that game folks- it could go either way. If the Spartans can escape South Bend with the W, they must soon travel to Ohio State- another game that could go either way because of the multiple player suspensions Ohio State will suffer from for their first five games (MSU is OSU's fifth game). The spartans do get to host both Michigan and Wisconsin, but they must later travel to Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern. By the end of the season, I think MSU's runningbacks get eaten up by injuries because of the lack of other playmakers, and the Spartans drop at least 4 games. They do make a bowl game at 8-4, but surprisingly drop their postseason game to a lesser team to finish 8-5.
Auburn
Why they could contend: Any time a team wins a national championship, their recruiting skyrockets. While Auburn's recruiting hasn't been nearly as good as other recent national champions (many of their desired recruits have jumped ship to conference rival Florida or archrival Alabama), they've still had a solid intake of young talent to keep the wins coming in.
Why they won't contend: Can you honestly name an offensive player from last year's national championship team besides Cam Newton? It's harder than you think. Auburn's defense was great last year; with the loss of Nick Fairley and others to the NFL draft, it reverts to just good. As for the offense, it was 100% powered by the versatility of Cam Newton. The SEC is not a league often associated with dual threat quarterbacks (it's more of a big 12/ACC thing, and the big east gets some good ones every once in a while too), so when a team gets a Cam Newton or a Tim Tebow that has any amount of running talent at all... forget about it. You couple that with a good defense and you've perfected the formula for a national championship team. With the loss of Auburn's home run hitting ability, their offense will slack back into the mediocrity of three years ago. It doesn't matter if you have a good defense when your offense can't put up enough points outscore the other team.
What you should expect: Auburn plays in the SEC west, which is somehow even more loaded than it was last year. Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi State are all solid top 25 teams this year, not to mention at least one very good team from the east (South Carolina). Auburn might be a decent team in other conferences, but expect them to get lost in the mix of incredible talent that is the SEC West. They could manage to squeak by Mississippi State at home in week 2, but @SCAR, @Arkansas, @LSU, and @Georgia are all games they will most likely drop. Don't forget a loss to a far superior Alabama team in the Iron Bowl. Factor in a probable 1-1 record between hosting Florida and visiting Clemson, and you're looking at team one year removed from a national championship that could very well end up at 6-6... or worse.
Georgia
Why they could contend: Nabbing the top runningback in the country always helps your offense go, and the bulldogs have an above average defense led by guys like linebacker Jarvis Jones, who was recently cleared by the NCAA to play for Georgia this year. With many of the defensive pieces falling into place, and an incredibly friendly SEC schedule, it looks like Georgia could finally be back to their 10 win form that dominated the SEC for most of the last decade, but mysteriously disappeared for the last few years.
Why they won't contend: Sure, the dawgs grabbed the top runningback, but huge holes in their offensive line aren't going to support the inexperienced true freshman very much. And if he gets injured, Georgia's RB depth is shallower than the kiddie pool at your neighborhood recreational facilities. Either way, Georgia's offense is already going to be pretty one-dimensional, with the pass attack averaging a very low yards-per-attempt mark the last few years; the departure of receiver AJ Green isn't gonna help that stat either. If SEC teams start loading the box against Georgia's run, it could be trouble- and it appears that the team doesnt have the star power at receiver to keep defenses honest.
What you should expect: Georgia is going to stumble out of the gate. Even though the Boise State Broncos will yet again traverse the country to play an east coast AQ team, and even though I seriously doubt their ability to pull away with a win, the boys from Idaho have a reputation for pulling out wins against upper level teams. Georgia could win a game against Boise... or it could drop it. Either way, I don't see them beating South Carolina one week later, and the game against Mississippi State is a toss up too. Tennessee is a bit of a trap game because the Vols match up well against the dawgs, and Florida is never a gimme game. Between those five games, I expect Georgia to go 2-3. An incredibly easy SOS will probably allow the bulldawgs to win at least 6 of their remaining 7 games, and they will probably wind up somewhere around
8-5 or 9-4. The bulldawgs will be denied another ten win season, but the uptick in ticket sales, program interest, and wins will save Mark Richt's job.
Tomorrow I start my top 20 countdown. Keep it here for more college football!
While I'll be taking a look at my top 20 for the rest of the week, I wanted to talk a little bit today about teams you shouldn't expect to see in my rankings. Because of the scale of the top 25 polls, many voters often fill the voids with power teams that are traditionally good from year to year because of the lack of information. Sometimes they just carry teams over that were successful the previous year- it's just the nature of the game. So I spent the better part of the last seven days compiling information, and now I'm ready to give you the filler teams from most polls that you should ignore, at least for now, until they prove themselves in the coming weeks:
TEXAS
Why they could contend: It's really the same reason why they could contend every year. Texas lies in the heart of one of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country. When you mix four and five star recruits with top-of-the-line facilities, you always have the ability to be a pretty solid team. Many of the same pieces are still in place from last year too, which means more experienced players are around to improve on the Longhorn's 2010 5-7 campaign.
Why they won't contend: What's changed since last year? Coaches have been switched around, but it's primarily the same offense, same defense, and most of the same players that didn't jel. Mainly, it's the presence of quarterback Garrett Gilbert, who just isn't that great of a leader or player. Unlike most bigtime signalcallers, Gilbert really lacks the inner fire that drive most of these college football stars... watching him is not exciting. He lacks a lot of confidence, and that carries over and affects the play of his teammates. A loaded quarterback stable, including Colt McCoy's little brother, is going to put some pressure on Gilbert to play better this year, but don't expect much to be different.
What you should expect: Expect the record to be a little better; don't expect the team to be much better. I expect Texas to drop at least three conference games (expect the longhorns to go 1-3 out of games @Missouri, @A&M, Oklahoma, OkSt) plus their road game at UCLA. An 8-4 record is enough to get Texas into a lower tier bowl game, but I expect a fired up team with less talent to come in and steal a victory. Texas will end its season 8-5: a step in the right direction after a losing season for Mack Brown but still far from where expectations lie in the heart of longhorn nation.
Notre Dame
Why they could contend: The installation of former Cincinatti coach Brian Kelly has Notre Dame heading toward a Recruiting Rennaissance. In many ways, BK has been made out to be the Messiah that the Fighting Irish need, and that could still very well prove true. BK fervor has attracted a lot of young talent to South Bend, and the defense that Notre Dame puts forth should be above average this year. On the offensive side of the ball, Brian Kelly is a mastermind of putting points on the board, and any offense he's commanding has to be given some respect.
Why they won't contend: Departures from last year's offense already have hurt the Irish. They retain their best wide receiver, but serious off the field/mentality issues may threaten his ability to contribute. Possibly the most worrisome preseason problem plaguing the Notre Dame offense is the giant quarterback controversy. Four different athletes are all competing for their chance to call the signals for the offense, but Brian Kelly has decided to not make a decision in the immediate future. Instead, he will wait until ten days before the team's first game to decide who will be leading the offense- a highly risky move that could create serious controversy and consternation in the backfield.
What you should expect: Kelly is building Notre Dame into a contender, but the Irish aren't quite there yet. Look for a very underrated and speedy South Florida team to come in and shock Notre Dame in the very first weekend, setting the home upset tone for the remainder of the year. The Irish also host, among other teams, Boston College, USC, Air Force, and Michigan State. I expect them to go 2-2 against these four teams. I also think they will drop games at Pitt and Stanford, thus finishing the season at 7-5. Though technically it's a worse finish than their 8-4 mark from last year, Kelly is going in the right direction and the program will reascend to greater heights in the next few years.
TCU
Why they could contend: Coach Gary Patterson has escalated TCU's football program to a new level. They are constantly in the national spotlight and have established a tradition of excellence in the last 10-15 years. This much is obvious, seeing as they were recently invited to join an AQ conference. The AQ invitation only helped to create more hype around the program, and recruits have been flooding to the horned frogs in waves. Patterson has consistenly put together tough defenses that are capable of allowing this team to hang around with anyone.
Why they won't contend: Don't get me wrong- the defense is still good. But it's not quite the same as it was in the previous few years. The linebacker positions are still a huge strength for the horned frogs, but heavy depletions on the front d-line as well as in the secondary have left the defense slightly more vulnerable. I'm not saying the recruits aren't capable in their own right- they certainly are- but this won't be the same defense that halted the insane power-running game of Wisconsin in last year's Rose Bowl. On the other side of the ball, celebrated TCU quarterback Andy Dalton has graduated and declared for the NFL draft, and the heir to his position is probably not quite as skilled as he was at running the TCU offense. Finally, the Mountain West did the frogs no scheduling favors in their last year in the conference before their move to the big east. TCU must face an early challenge at Baylor, and travel to both Boise and San Diego State. These and other road challenges could put a damper on the expectations for Patterson's squad; a perfect season repeat is pretty unlikely.
What you should expect: TCU probably drops two games at the minimum, probably even three. They still get to go to a bowl game, where they will likely dominate some lesser AQ team from the middle of their conference. TCU grabs another 10+ win season as they leave the mountain west for the big east, but the comparison to last year's undefeated Rose Bowl winners leaves frog fans yearning for just a little bit more.
Michigan State
Why they could contend: Quarterback Kirk Cousins in a winner. The Spartan stable of runningbacks is formiddable, there's no question. Though this team did get absolutely walloped by an angry Alabama team in last year's Capital One bowl, they were still a very solid group that shared the Big Ten title. A big portion of that experienced, skilled team returns. So why wouldn't they be able to put it together this year?
Why they won't contend: The Spartans took a pretty big hit to their front 7 on the defensive side of the ball, which might make many of their games this year into more of a shootout. Cousins and his runningbacks are very good, but at the same time... if you had to choose an offense to win you a shootout, would Michigan State's immediately come to mind? In addition, much of MSU's success last year was thanks to an incredibly favorable schedule. As nice as last year's was, this year's is just the opposite. The Spartans play some serious cupcakes in their non-conference, and probably won't be ready for their first road game at Notre Dame. Don't bet on that game folks- it could go either way. If the Spartans can escape South Bend with the W, they must soon travel to Ohio State- another game that could go either way because of the multiple player suspensions Ohio State will suffer from for their first five games (MSU is OSU's fifth game). The spartans do get to host both Michigan and Wisconsin, but they must later travel to Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern. By the end of the season, I think MSU's runningbacks get eaten up by injuries because of the lack of other playmakers, and the Spartans drop at least 4 games. They do make a bowl game at 8-4, but surprisingly drop their postseason game to a lesser team to finish 8-5.
Auburn
Why they could contend: Any time a team wins a national championship, their recruiting skyrockets. While Auburn's recruiting hasn't been nearly as good as other recent national champions (many of their desired recruits have jumped ship to conference rival Florida or archrival Alabama), they've still had a solid intake of young talent to keep the wins coming in.
Why they won't contend: Can you honestly name an offensive player from last year's national championship team besides Cam Newton? It's harder than you think. Auburn's defense was great last year; with the loss of Nick Fairley and others to the NFL draft, it reverts to just good. As for the offense, it was 100% powered by the versatility of Cam Newton. The SEC is not a league often associated with dual threat quarterbacks (it's more of a big 12/ACC thing, and the big east gets some good ones every once in a while too), so when a team gets a Cam Newton or a Tim Tebow that has any amount of running talent at all... forget about it. You couple that with a good defense and you've perfected the formula for a national championship team. With the loss of Auburn's home run hitting ability, their offense will slack back into the mediocrity of three years ago. It doesn't matter if you have a good defense when your offense can't put up enough points outscore the other team.
What you should expect: Auburn plays in the SEC west, which is somehow even more loaded than it was last year. Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi State are all solid top 25 teams this year, not to mention at least one very good team from the east (South Carolina). Auburn might be a decent team in other conferences, but expect them to get lost in the mix of incredible talent that is the SEC West. They could manage to squeak by Mississippi State at home in week 2, but @SCAR, @Arkansas, @LSU, and @Georgia are all games they will most likely drop. Don't forget a loss to a far superior Alabama team in the Iron Bowl. Factor in a probable 1-1 record between hosting Florida and visiting Clemson, and you're looking at team one year removed from a national championship that could very well end up at 6-6... or worse.
Georgia
Why they could contend: Nabbing the top runningback in the country always helps your offense go, and the bulldogs have an above average defense led by guys like linebacker Jarvis Jones, who was recently cleared by the NCAA to play for Georgia this year. With many of the defensive pieces falling into place, and an incredibly friendly SEC schedule, it looks like Georgia could finally be back to their 10 win form that dominated the SEC for most of the last decade, but mysteriously disappeared for the last few years.
Why they won't contend: Sure, the dawgs grabbed the top runningback, but huge holes in their offensive line aren't going to support the inexperienced true freshman very much. And if he gets injured, Georgia's RB depth is shallower than the kiddie pool at your neighborhood recreational facilities. Either way, Georgia's offense is already going to be pretty one-dimensional, with the pass attack averaging a very low yards-per-attempt mark the last few years; the departure of receiver AJ Green isn't gonna help that stat either. If SEC teams start loading the box against Georgia's run, it could be trouble- and it appears that the team doesnt have the star power at receiver to keep defenses honest.
What you should expect: Georgia is going to stumble out of the gate. Even though the Boise State Broncos will yet again traverse the country to play an east coast AQ team, and even though I seriously doubt their ability to pull away with a win, the boys from Idaho have a reputation for pulling out wins against upper level teams. Georgia could win a game against Boise... or it could drop it. Either way, I don't see them beating South Carolina one week later, and the game against Mississippi State is a toss up too. Tennessee is a bit of a trap game because the Vols match up well against the dawgs, and Florida is never a gimme game. Between those five games, I expect Georgia to go 2-3. An incredibly easy SOS will probably allow the bulldawgs to win at least 6 of their remaining 7 games, and they will probably wind up somewhere around
8-5 or 9-4. The bulldawgs will be denied another ten win season, but the uptick in ticket sales, program interest, and wins will save Mark Richt's job.
Tomorrow I start my top 20 countdown. Keep it here for more college football!
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