After a hectic week of finalizing my work at the YMCA and moving into my apartment up at school, I'm finally ready to reveal my preseason top five teams. They are:
5. South Carolina
Why they will contend: I've said it before and I'll say it again- the SEC will be a run first league this year. Lucky for gamecock fans and the good people of South Carolina, Steve Spurrier has assembled a dynamic run attack led by all-star runningback Marcus Lattimore. He shredded defenses a freshman last year and will be back for a 2011-2012 campaign to do the exact same thing all over again. Lattimore will probably see a good 55% of the total touches this year- just enough to make him the primary weapon without working him too hard and probably injuring him. Another large chunk of the action will be seen by Alshawn Jeffrey, a fantastic weapon that will keep the chains moving when Lattimore needs to hit up the Gatorade cooler. Oh yeah, don't forget about the solid offensive line supporting them and an awesome front 7 on the defensive end.
Where their problems lie: Stephen Garcia, Stephen Garcia, and Stephen Garcia. It's pretty rare that you're quarterback is actually the weak spot of your offense in this day and age, but Garcia is the clear object of many pointing fingers in the college football landscape right now. His ball skills are adequate enough to keep the offense running, but his constant mental focus issues could honestly be this programs undoing. He's been suspended multiple times for off the field issues- he's not out there robbing banks or even selling rings for tattoos, people, he just does stupid stuff- and his absence could completely derail South Carolina's shot at the SEC title and beyond. Lattimore might be a monster, but if you have a quarterback starting his very first game in the middle of SEC play, things don't look great for your team.
What you can expect: The gamecocks really only have one difficult game in the first half of their schedule: playing in Athens in week 2. I think a tough running attack overpowers an already fatigued and slightly overrated Georgia team as South Carolina cruises to a 6-0 start. Three consecutive road games at Miss St, Tennessee, and Arkansas leave South Carolina at 7-2, but a 3-0 finish leaves Spurrier's squad playing in the SEC title game. South Carolina again gets blown out by superior SEC West competition as Garcia sits for personal reasons, but a 10 win season leaves South Carolina's team in the running for the SEC's second BCS bowl bid and fans happy.
4. Texas A&M
Why they will contend: There's something to said for a team that finishes hot. There's also something to be said for a team that returns most of their players. Put them together, and there's a lot that can be said for Texas A&M. A physical and experienced team, the Aggies have a hugely talented running game that should be strong enough to counter most of the problems usually associated with breaking in new quarterbacks. The defense is of a high caliber. Maybe the most important thing to note is the managebility of the schedule- while A&M does have play at Oklahoma, the more or less unanimous conference favorite, their only other road games are Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech. The Aggies will get to host preseason #9 Oklahoma State and preseason #21 Missouri along with the remaining three Big 12 teams.
Where their problems lie: There will inevitably be growing pains with this new freshman in a league like the Big 12- the real question is how big those pains will be and how long they will last. The schedule doesn't leave much room for error- top ten teams are showing up in College Station by week 4.
What you can expect: Obviously I am quite a bit higher on A&M than most other people, but I think people are underselling Texas A&M because of the overstatement of preseason #1 Oklahoma. Oklahoma is not invincible, and I think Texas A&M will beat them. The following is a highly specific and thus probably very wrong prediction, but here's what I think happens: because Oklahoma is #1 right now, they are an inevitable favorite to make a run at a BCS championship bid. However, now that the Big 12 is no longer divided into two divisions, the margin for error in the league in much smaller. Rather than having the opportunity to drop a game but still win the league via a championship game win, teams must now win the conference outright to secure their BCS bid. In other words, egular season games are worth significantly more over in Tornado Alley. Texas A&M will certainly drop a conference game- whether it's Mizzou or OSU, it doesn't really matter. I also think they lose their neutral site game to Arkansas, leaving them at 10-2. Oklahoma goes 11-1 with their only loss to A&M. The Aggies win the Big 12 despite their inferior record, and the Sooners are denied any sort of BCS bid completely because of the depth of the SEC/Pac12. Oklahoma plays in the Cotton Bowl in what is easily the best non-BCS bowl game of the year. Texas A&M goes to the BCS. Oklahoma Sooner fans are once again disappointed, regardless of the outcome of the bowl game.
Wow, now I feel like Fred Weasley calling for Ireland to win while Viktor Krum catches thes snitch. If that all comes true, I deserve to be paid for this.
3. Wisconsin
Why they will contend: Another team I'm really high on, there is a LOT to like about the Badgers this year. Where to even begin? Wisconsin has a great tradition at the runningback spot, and this year is no different. RB White returns to tear up backfields, linemen, and secondaries as he did last year when he wasn't even on top of the depth chart! His running will be augmented by probably the best offensive line in all of college football. Even new NC State transfer quarterback Russell Wilson will get in on the running action, as he is (in my opinion) almost as exciting to watch as fellow Big 10 quarterback Denard Robinson. The defense is solid great. The schedule lines up near perfectly; in fact, the Badgers don't even play a true road game until October 22 at Michigan State.
Where their problems lie: Honestly, this team might have the smallest downside in all of college football. But they did lose quite a few outstanding high draft picks. High picks translate to big talent. Big talent in the NFL draft translates to loss of talent at Camp Randall. So while Wisconsin certainly returns enough talent to make a run, they've also lost a considerable amount of defensive front seven/offensive line skill too. I also have small concerns about Russell Wilson being able to run like he did in the ACC. The guy is talented, but ACC defenses are built differently than Big 10 defenses at pretty much every level. His running ability could potentially see a drop off playing against different style defenses.
What you can expect: Wisconsin to win the Big 10 and make a repeat appearance in the Rose Bowl. Nebraska features a similar offense with a dual threat quarterback, but they dont have the skill all over the field that the Badgers do. Their October 1 game will certainly be a great College GameDay Game, but I don't expect Nebraska to leave with a win. Wisconsin will most likely be tested the most while visiting Ohio State because of the sheer power of the Buckeye trenches; look for Ohio State to possibly turn the tables on a Wisconsin team that knocked Ohio State from their undefeated perch last year. The Badgers still make it through the Big 10 and championship game with a double digit win season and find themselves in the BCS postseason once again.
2. Oklahoma
Why they will contend: Oklahoma is flat out talented. Everywhere. I could go through and list all the positions they're good at, but that would get boring fast. Imagine a football position, and and Oklahoma has skill talent there.
Where their problems lie: Hey, do you remember Sam Bradford's senior season? Yeah, me neither. Oklahoma has a nasty habit of suffering injuries and other setbacks that deplete their depth, and that nasty habit has already reared its ugly head this year. Travis Lewis, who has led the Sooners in tackles for the past three years, just broke his toe and will miss probably the first 5 or 6 weeks of the season. Senior middle linebacker Austin Box died from painkiller OD in May. Breakout talent defensive end Ronnell Lewis appears to be academically ineligble and will likely miss this season. DT Daniel Noble is giving up football due to effects of a concussion he sustained last year and never quite got over. The hits keep on coming for the Sooners. And while everyone was so hip to talk about the run game with DeMarco Murray last year, let's have a reality check. He averaged 3.3 ypc, and he was an absolute stud. That offensive line might be great for protecting the pocket, but they somehow aren't nearly as good at opening up running lanes. If they can only get 3.3 yards for Murrary, what will they manage for the poor shmuck running the ball for Oklahoma this year?
What you can expect: See above rant for Texas A&M. Oklahoma goes 11-1 but doesn't win the Big 12. Hop off the bandwagon before it crashes over a bridge and into the Red River, folks.
1. Alabama
Why they will contend: Defense, defense, defense. Five star recruits permeate through Alabama's defense in the same way that Lacrosse pennies line the streets and sidewalks of JMU: they're so ubiquitous that it's kind of obnoxious. The offense is led by absolute freak Trent Richardson, who... well, there are no words for him. He's just a freak. Go youtube his workouts, you'll see what I mean. He doesn't have the lateral movement or pure lane running abilities of a Marcus Lattimore, but Richardson has the tenaciousness of a runner who is not afraid to drop his shoulder and shirk tough defenses. And in the SEC, that toughness is probably the most important quality you can find in a runningback.
Where their problems lie: There's not much you can say that's bad about Alabama. The departure of key offensive weapons Greg McElroy and first round draft pick Julio Jones will certainly leave the offense less explosive. Alabama will have to lean on the running game to put points up on the board and hope that its offense isn't left too one dimensional.
What you can expect: Regardless of how efficient the Crimson Tide offense is, expect their defense to keep them in every single game they play. They get other SEC west hopefuls Arkansas and LSU at home, which should lead to a definite inside track to the SEC title game. I don't think Alabama goes undefeated like they did two years ago, but I do think they have the easiest shot at the SEC title. Whether they execute with a young offense and actually win remains to be seen.
I will continue my preseason coverage right up til the college football kickoff next Thursday night. Welcome to football season!
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