Preseason Poll, part 2. Let's get down to it.
15. Boise State
Why they could contend: Whoever cooked up Boise State's football strategy for the last few years is, frankly, an absolute genius. They have played in the WAC up until this year; despite what anyone tells you, this is an absolute cupcake conference. They hardly ever face a challenge in conference play. By blowing everyone out after getting one big road victory in the nonconference, they can claim that they are a team worthy of competing for the national title. Add in a quarterback that is a legitimate threat to pick apart any secondary and an incredibly tenacious defensive line, and you've got the makings of a team that garners national attention throughout the year. The genius of it is the controversy a team like Boise creates in a system that works like the BCS does. This year is no different than the others- Boise has Kellen Moore back for his senior year, and has once again put together a defense that is not national championship caliber, but it's still pretty good.
Where their problems lie: 2011 is Boise's first year in the mountain west, a conference that isn't AQ but is still pretty good. The MWC lost Utah to the Pac-10 and will lose TCU at the end of this year to the Big East in a geographically questionable conference realignment, but Boise will still face tougher conference opponents than it has in previous years. This threatens their ability to run the table like they usually do. Most notable are the losses on offense, where Kellen Moore has lost both of his best receivers. Boise's offensive coordinator bolted for a more notworthy job, so the offense may go through some growing pains in the new OC's first year. Oh, and don't forget the the AD just got canned too.
What you can expect: The preseason hype will always be around, but I think this is the year that it finally goes unjustified. Whether or not Boise wins at Georgia is irrelevant; they won't be able to make it through the season in their usual undefeated, flashy enough fashion to make it anywhere close to the national championship. Though i do think Boise pulls off a home win against TCU, Boise doesn't have the talent on both sides of the ball this year to get it done. They will drop a game somewhere along the way and fall into obscurity.
14. Mississippi State
Why they could contend: Head coach Dan Mullen has been quietly building Miss. St into a program that can some day compete with the likes of the SEC west. For 2011, he has lined up what could be an offensive juggernaut: a dual threat quarterback that could run roughshot over SEC defenses, two powerful runningbacks, and an entire stable of wide receivers. On the other side of the ball, the secondary is a huge strength and will most likely hold opponents to very low 3rd down conversion rates. Possibly most important of all, State's schedule lines up incredibly favorably. Playing in the absolutely loaded SEC West ( I have four of six SEC west teams in my top 15), Miss St gets LSU, Alabama, and eastern foe South Carolina at home. They do have to travel to Arkansas, but the schedule still lines up favorably for a run, albeit a darkhorse run, at the West's spot in the SEC championship game.
Where their problems lie: Receivers are out and power runningbacks are in this year in the SEC. It's great that State will field a good secondary, but I fear that the rest of their defense (which is very mediocre, especially by SEC standards) won't be able stop the run well enough to get opponents' offenses off the field. SEC teams will probably decide to shove the run down Mississippi State's throats, and the dawgs might be powerless to stop it.
What you can expect: If it were any other conference, Mississippi State could probably contend for the title. State probably starts off well enough, winning at Memphis and Auburn. They might even pull a big upset over LSU at home if the Tigers are too tired from previous games or looking past State to a road trip to Morgantown. A 6-0 start seems unlikely though. At best, State enters their home game against South Carolina at 5-1, and Marcus Lattimore's ground attack is way too much for the front 7 to handle. The gamecocks give the remaining teams a blueprint on how to beat the bulldogs. They open 5-1 but close 3-3 to end up 8-4, 9-4 counting their bowl game blowout of some other fourth place team.
13. West Virginia
Why they could contend: I know, I know. Nepotism. But just hear me out. Dana Holgorsen has taken absolute nobody's and made them into monstrous offensive units. Remember that preseason-last-place Oklahoma State team that led the nation in offense last year? Remember how a receiver was getting Heisman hype? Remember how right before that, C-USA team Houston somehow had the number one offense in the country, and Case Keenum was a god of football? Yeah. Dana Holgorsen. So there's some monstrous potential when you combine Holgy's offense with Geno Smith, the qb who has poise beyond his years (insert Marshall comment here). West Virginia doesn't just have a stable of receivers and runningbacks- it has an entire farm. Lots of incoming freshman runningbacks are very talented. Legendary coach Don Nehlen's grandson has also walked onto the team and is making an impact at receiver right behind playmakers like Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. There's talent on the defensive side of the ball, with defensive end Bruce Irvin stepping into a full time role this year. If you wanna know how good the juco transfer Irvin is, just know that he ranked in the top 5 nationally last year in sacks- and only played on third downs. The secondary s solid too, with returning players like Keith Tandy who ranked near the top nationally in picks last year.
Where their problems lie: There have been plenty of off the field distractions this year that could cause chinks in the armor. But much more important than the off the field issues is what's hapenning on the field. Holgorsen brings with him a brand new Air Raid, pass-happy offense that could cause some growing pains to a football team that is traditionally a run-first offense. And even if everyone has the offense down by the season's start, the defense lost nine starters, many of whom were all big-east selections. One of the best returners, Julian Miller, is being moved from the end opposite Bruce Irvin to the defensive tackle position. Miller was very effective last year, but he could be a serious question mark playing from the DT position instead of as a DE. Can a team with a relatively unproven defense survive in tandem with a fast paced offense?
What you can expect: Former head coach Bill Stewart predicted a few years ago that West Virginia will win its first national title in the 2011-2012 season. Ironically, his prediction stands a fair shot of coming true without him present; West Virginia's schedule is set up this year to put them in position to be in the national title race. If the mountaineers can get past LSU at home and not look past Maryland on the road the week before, few teams in the Big East will likely have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Holgorsen offense regardless of how the defense plays. The most difficult games are all at home- including the Backyard Brawl, which is always a wide open competition. If West Virgina beats LSU, I think they will go 11-0 all the way up to the USF game. South Florida always plays WVU incredibly hard, and if a top 5 ranked WVU team comes to Tampa, USF is going to be very fired up. That game could very easily go to the bulls. Ultimately though, WVU's season comes down to games against LSU at home and on the road in Tampa- those two games will determine the postseason fate of this team.
12. Missouri
What you can expect: Sure, Blaine Gabbert is gone... but pretty much everything else is still there. Missouri has a fantastic offensive line to protect their new quarterback. The runningbacks and receivers are solid at the top of the depth chart too, which means an all around balanced attack and less immediate pressure on the quarterback. This offense can hold pace with the other high-powered attacks in the Big 12.
Where their problems lie: The defense overall is so-so, but the secondary is particularly vulnerable. Teams like Oklahoma State will pass on the Tigers all day, and they won't be able to do much to stop them.
What you can expect: Missouri's offense can keep it in a shootout, but ultimately it's defense is going to hold it back if it can't come up with stops when they matter most. Add in a new quarterback and even with a proven offense, it could be a step back for Mizzou this year. Early tests might be too much- Missouri will easily drop at least one game in the month of September between road games at Arizona State and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State will probably win at Missouri, and I don't think the tigers can win at Texas A&M either, my darkhorse national title contender. Missouri finds one more game to lose and ends up somewhere around fourth in the Big 12 at the end of the season. Realizing they can't even compete where they're at, the Tigers don't even think about bolting for the SEC.
11. Florida State
What you can expect: Sportscenter highlights. When you couple old guard teams that many college football fans would love to see come back into their own with great skill position talent, you get sportscenter highlights all day long. Christian Ponder might be gone from Tallahassee, but the seminoles still possess great runningback/wide receiver depth and talent that will allow them to dominate most of their ACC competition. The defense isn't too shabby either. It returns several starters and will probably be one of the best in the conference.
Where their problems lie: Sure, the loss of Christian Ponder hurts, but what probably hurts more is the departure of the men that protected him. FSU had one of the best offensive lines in the country, and the line will face a serious rebuilding effort this year. Combine that with new quarterback EJ Manuel who has thrown 6 td's and 10 picks over his career, and who knows what you're gonna get? If the pocket can hold, the offense could be powerful, but it's gonna be a big if. That's why I'm not as high on them as others in the media are.
What you can expect: Expect the seminoles to take a big step toward being "back" this year. I think they will run through ACC competition, but Oklahoma will have too many athletes in their pass rush for FSU to get the win. I also think other road games in the ACC might prove tricky for the impulsive qb Manuel, and teams that are physical up front like Clemson and Boston College might be too much on the road. FSU goes 10-2 in the regular season, wins the ACC championship game, and loses the ensuing BCS game.
No comments:
Post a Comment