Rant Time: VCU the Exception that Proves the Rule

After a frivolity-filled night highlighted by VCU’s fourth win in nine days, I’m feeling pretty good.  VCU is indeed elite, and another three wins will put them on top of a very significant mountain.  The city of Richmond will be throttled back into sports relevance with its first national champion of significance.  VCU’s recruiting will be insanely good.  Shaka Smart will undoubtedly get a raise.  People will actually be proud to represent the 804 once again.  All of that is well and good- and even if VCU gets demolished by Kansas on Sunday, they still will have made a great run that the University can be proud of.

Now let’s look at a not-so-great impact that VCU will eventually have regardless of where they finish in the tournament.  I’m talking about tournament expansion.

You know, it really feels like just yesterday that we were all going on and on about how bad expansion would be.  In fact, I think it’s pretty safe to say that never has a suggested course of action been hated by so many people yet still been dangerously close to happening.  Of course, it all comes down to the almighty dollar and how much money can be earned.  While all the millions of fans can’t imagine how watered down the college basketball postseason might become with 96 teams instead of the current 68, the people that stand to profit from the additional 28 teams are the ones ultimately calling the shots and making the decisions- the NCAA, CBS, and now Turner broadcasting. 

Throughout the course of the upset-prone regular season, we all heard the messages that were beat into our heads by journalists, commentators, and fans alike.  With such a weak bubble this year, a 96-team tournament would be astronomically boring.  It was said repeatedly, over and over and over until I wanted to scream.  Imagine a team like UAB, who was embarrassed by Clemson in the first of the four play in games, actually favored to win a game.  That could be the world we someday live in if the 96-team tournament comes to fruition, and believe me, it’s not a pretty one.  Imagine becoming prematurely bored of March Madness, mentally favoring replaying the Modern Warfare 2 campaign for the eighth time over watching 10^th seeded Wichita State take on 19^th seeded Tennessee Valley Tech.  I don’t know about you, my wonderful readers, but that potential future game doesn’t exactly make me want to start microwaving some popcorn and call the guys over.    Yet it could happen.  Justification, thy name is VCU.

Even with all the criticism and scrutiny revolving around the selection committee’s choices this year, here we sit in the first year of the “First Four” with one of the teams firmly entrenched in the Elite Eight.  VCU sits three wins away from the national championship, and many people didn’t even think they deserved a bid.  What if they hadn’t gotten one, though?  What if a team that could potentially end up winning the national championship was left out of the entire NCAA tournament?  No one would think twice if VCU had been left out 13 days ago, but knowing what we know now, it would be an absolute travesty if the Rams were playing in anything but the Big Dance this month.  If you’re the NCAA, and you’re looking at a national championship-contending team that could easily have not even have been selected for this tournament, wouldn’t you at least consider the possibility that tournament expansion must happen simply out of respect for all the future VCU’s of the world?  You can certainly make the case.  And if you’re a money-hungry organization that is already looking to make a profitable change to how things run, all you’re looking for is justification.  Overall consequences be damned, as long as you can make $100 million more. 

This is the conversation that I fear will happen sometime in the very near future.  And frankly, it’s ludicrous.

Honestly, did any of you not know that teams can get hot?  I feel like its common sense.  Cleveland State, Hofstra, Montana, Long Beach State, Portland- these are all teams that you may have never even heard of, but they could have won a game in the NCAA tournament.  They could have won multiple games in the NCAA tournament.  They also could have fell flat on their faces and got blown out by 40 points.  The greatest part of March Madness is that anything is possible year in and year out, but that doesn’t mean that you should include every team simply because they could potentially win a game!  On paper, VCU is a team that finished fourth in the CAA on a slide, yet reached the title game of the CAA tournament.  On paper, you could easily argue that VCU cut someone else in line for their NCAA bid.  On paper, VCU has been outmatched in every game they’ve played in and should not have won a single game in the last nine days.

Luckily for us, and despite what you’re bracket is printed out on, March Madness does not occur on paper.  It happens in real, living color.  As the drama unfolds in front of our eyes every third month of the year, we are shocked by upsets because the upsets shouldn’t happen, but it doesn’t mean they can’t happen.  For this reason, VCU is an anomaly; they are the exception that proves the rule.  A team that does not prove themselves during the regular season does not belong in the NCAA tournament, and the men with all the power should NOT expand the tournament to bail them all out.  Teams that do not belong should stay on the outside and work their way in, and the experience will mean all the more to them by the end.

But every once in a while… a team might come around that, in the general public’s eyes, does not belong.  And they remind us of why we love March.

Beware March Sickness

I sometimes forget in the heat of all that is March Madness that there are, indeed, other sports out there in the universe besides college basketball.  In fact, sometimes I even hear news stories from other sports and like to completely overvalue the significance of said news stories.  I fear that others fall into this side effect of the Madness as well (from this point on, it will be contrasted as “March Sickness”), so without further ado, a quick jaunt around the world of sports:

-A Wide Receiver out of Virginia Tech has been arrested and charged with Child Abuse.  He has been released on bail, but because of Virginia Tech’s policy on players that have been charged with felonies, he will now be barred from participating in spring practice.  The player, Xavier Boyce, isn't exactly a first string receiver.  Still, it takes away from the depth of a team that’s losing a lot of skill players.  Perhaps the most significant impact is that of public opinion.  Virginia Tech is at least regionally known for recruiting quite a few shady individuals (Marcus Vick, anyone?) and this latest incident is just another log on the fire.

-If you’re a hockey fan, there have been a couple huge games this week.  The Caps played the Flyers in Philly in an absolute classic Tuesday night.  The caps opened up an early 3-0 lead but Philly came back to actually lead 4-3 half way through the third period.  The caps tied it, and the score remained 4-4 through regulation and overtime.  The shootout featured some amazing shooting from both teams, but Washington couldn’t miss a shot and the Caps took it 5-4.  After that game, Philly retains its overall 1^st place seed in the East as we move closer to the NHL playoffs, but Washington is only a point behind them now.  Washington plays the Senators tomorrow night in Ottawa in what could likely be easy points for the Caps with the way they’re playing right now. 

Meanwhile, the NHL-leading Canucks took their game to Detroit Wednesday night in a could-have-been-but-wasn’t-a-classic game.  The Canucks won in regulation, bringing the series this year to an even
2-2 split.  A little series called the 2010 Sharks-Blackhawks looks and awful lot like this year’s Vancouver-Detroit matchups.  Did they play for something important last year?  I feel like they did, I just can’t seem to remember… yeah, that’s right.  I’m calling it today.  Seven games between the Canucks and the Red Wings will decide the West’s representative in the Stanley Cup.  The east?  It’s a little more jumbled than the west at the top, but if you forced me to pick, I’m thinking maybe Flyers and Canadiens.  The Capitals are an obvious choice, but they seem to choke a lot (to my extreme dismay).  Add the fact that Carey Price is having a very good year and elevates himself in the playoffs, and you’ve got the makings of a repeat from last year’s Eastern Final.  Stanley Cup prediction?  Canucks-Flyers.  How’s that prediction for being a little sick in March?  I’m not just picking the teams, I’m forecasting brackets!  I’m like Joe Lunardi but with ice skates.

-Every year, in an effort to make it seem like they don’t just do work for three to four months out of the year, ESPN college football bloggers and analysts make up random lists and mini-series revolving around random offseason topics.  An annual staple is the preseason darkhorse Heisman list, which features players who have been good but not great and are the most likely candidates to elevate their game the next year, should a favorite like Stanford’s Andrew Luck fail to live up to the extremely high preseason expectations.  At the top of This year's list is none other than WVU quarterback Geno Smith, a never-redshirted junior who is starting for his second year this fall.  I’m just going to come out and say it- even as a fan, this is a little ridiculous.  Sure, Geno Smith engineered one of the most epic comebacks last year I’ve ever seen in college football and against a semi-rival, no less.  (Sorry, Marshall friends and family, but it’s not a real rivalry when the team you’re playing has never actually beaten you.)  But here are my reasons for why Geno, while he is a sound quarterback who will lead us to a great season yet again, should not be on any Heisman watch list just yet.

If you’re not a WVU fan:  Unless whatever team you cheer for has a bona fide Heisman candidate, you probably are highly emotionally invested in the actual best player winning the Heisman trophy.  Do you care about some guy you’ve never heard of from West Virginia who hasn’t even started 15 games in his career?  I’m guessing not.  You want the best players to be receiving attention, and Geno Smith is a regionally known player at best.  Let’s be honest, the only reason Geno Smith is on this list is because Holgorsen is coming to Morgantown, and he is an offensive mastermind.  The Heisman trophy should be about what a player does over a year, not what player has the potential to do the most under the right tutelage.

If you are a WVU fan:  Have you ever actually seen a “Darkhorse Heisman Candidate” actually win the Heisman?  I’ve never even seen one get invited to New York.  This is more of a curse than anything else, an affirmation that Geno will not exceed our own typically high expectations.  Don’t get me wrong- I hope Geno does throw for a million yards and 18,000 touchdowns.  It would definitely make my year.  But what happens when everything goes right?  Dana Holgorsen comes to town and makes Geno Smith into a superstar.  Does anyone outside of Big East fans know it?  Probably not.  The only thing most people know about Heisman candidates is what the media tells them.  So if the lasting impression inside the minds of the general public is that Geno Smith was an overhyped media darling from day 1, very few people are actually going to get behind him as a Heisman candidate.

So why does Feldman and co feel the need to make something out of nothing?  I’m not sure, readers.  That’s a great question.  I’m going to go ahead and blame March Sickness.

-Don’t crown the Phillies as runaway favorites in the MLB just yet.  After acquiring an absolutely amazing bullpen rotation, injuries have started taking giant chunks out of their lineup.  Chase Utley (my favorite baseball player, for your information- not only because he has a great name, but also because he plays second base) has been nagged by injuries.  Now it seems the Phillies won’t have ace closer Brad Lidge for Opening Day either.

-Don’t put too much stock in the Knick’s recent “skid.”  TV media has been pretty quick to call the Knicks out as a postseason pretender and have even gone so far as to already start calling the Carmelo trade a failure 16 games later (they have had a 7-9 record since the trade).  While I have already been on the record saying that I thought the trade favored Denver in the long term, I certainly still think that the Knicks are a playoff-caliber team capable of winning multiple series in the postseason.  The Heat, Magic, Celtics, Lakers, and Spurs have all had notable skids throughout the course of the season.  These losing streaks certainly don’t mean that the teams mentioned above aren’t postseason contenders- it simply means that it’s pretty much impossible to keep a good momentum going over the course of a season that spans more than half of the calendar year.  The only real implication the Knicks’ slide has is an effect on their Eastern playoff seeding, which has since dropped below the 76’ers.  Don’t panic New York fans.  You’re team is fine.  As for the media, they’re just suffering from a good old case of the March Sickness.

Among Other Things, Basketball Alive and Well in Richmond

After the first weekend of March Madness, here are some observations, statistics, and opinions:

-Is your bracket shot?  Mine probably is, but I’m going to pretend like it’s not for just a little longer.  After an epic Thursday afternoon where I was just about perfect, I had a very bad evening.  Still, a flawless Friday kept me in the game, and I saw my record 23/32 after the first record.  (Take out the southeast and I was 20/24)  Saturday and Sunday killed me though, as I am left with 8 teams correctly in the sweet sixteen.  I’ve won pools with less, but I don’t like my chances to beat my placing in my yearly Governor’s School Pool, which I finished in the top three of last year.  Here’s to a UConn-Kansas NC game to bail my sorry bracket out.

-Doesn’t it feel like the sky is raining upsets?  Evidently it’s not.  I filled out an all-chalk bracket on ESPN just to see how it would compare to everyone else’s.  (For the sake of clarity, I had all four #1 number one seeds in the final four on this bracket, with the NC being between Ohio State and Pittsburgh.)  The results after two rounds?  That bracket is currently in the 92^nd percentile of all brackets, so it’s doing pretty well.  It seems like there have been a lot of upsets because the upsets have been so epic- 13’s beating 4’s, 8’s beating 1’s, and two 11 seeds in the Sweet 16- but by and large chalk has held.  The east features a 1, 2, and 4.  The west features a 1, 2, 3, and 5.  The southeast features a 2, 3, and 4.  The only region which is looking insane right now is…

-The southwest region:  holy freaking crap.  Everyone thought the southeast was going to be upset city, but clearly it’s the southwest.  Aside from Kansas winning comfortably in both of its games, we’ve had gigantic chains of upsets.  Notre Dame, a team that many (me not included) had going very far in the tournament, was knocked out in the second round by FSU, who also knocked off Texas A&M.  VCU, who slid all the way through their season finale (against JMU, might I add), came out of the gates in the CAA tournament.  Even though they lost to ODU in the tournament final, they never really turned off the juice.  They have absolutely decimated opponents, beating their three opponents (USC, Georgetown, Purdue) by a combined 49 points.  In fact, the only team blowing teams away in more grandiose fashion has been some team named Ohio State, that little old number 1 overall seed.

-Speaking of VCU, how about the city of Richmond?  Left for dead by the selection committee, Richmond was vastly underseeded as a #12 and playing against a nationally ranked team.  VCU was relegated to play-in purgatory and left for dead against a southern Cal team that has been up and down all year.  It’s now one week later, and we’re living in a Sweet 16 world where Richmond has survived to face Kansas, and VCU has proved to the critics that they belong by rattling off three straight wins.  Richmond is not exactly the Mecca of sports, featuring little more than an oddly named minor league baseball team and a notable racetrack.  But my guess is that several thousand more people will follow college basketball a little more closely in the foreseeable future.  The first step is certainly to step up the excitement level in the city, and people are making strides toward that.  Friends of mine at both universities have informed me of a joint VCU/U of R pep rally by the Canal this upcoming Wednesday afternoon.  If you’re in the area, think about stopping by and enjoying the frivolities that come with living in a city that is, for once, actually relevant in the sports world! 

Oh, and watch out.  I love VCU to beat to beat Florida State, and make the regional semifinals.  But Richmond to take out Kansas would be a huge surprise.  You know what?  To Hell with my bracket.  Let’s go spiders!  If there’s an all Richmond elite eight game, the city might just explode from sheer, epic excitement

-My final word for the day: why hate on the big east?  An army of pundits seem to be highly critical on the league’s two remaining bids.  While expectations were certainly higher, it mathematically makes a lot of sense.  Unlike the regular season, where 300+ Division 1 teams can be on entirely different planes of existence, teams playing in March are all relatively on the same level.  10 of the best 37 teams came from the Big East.  That reflection of the regular season technically has no say on how those teams will stack up when playing against the other 27 teams because, as said before, all teams are within range of potentially beating each other.

From a mathematical perspective, 50% of the teams should have been eliminated by the end of the round of 64.  Expected amount of teams left?  5 or 6.  Actual amount of teams left- 6.  By the start of the Sweet 16, only 2-3 teams should be left.  Here we are with two teams left- two of which had to get there by beating another Big East team, which could have meant a potential four teams in the sweet sixteen- so the Big East has done more or less everything expected of them.  Not to mention many of the losses- Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse- came down to final plays and/or questionable officiating.  All of these things lead me to one conclusion.  Has there been unfulfilled expectations?  Yes.  Has the conference underachieved?  Perhaps.  Is that conference a bust?  Absolutely not… yet.

Teams remaining by conference:

ACC: 3
Big East: 2
Big 10: 2
SEC: 2
MWC: 2
Big 12: 1
Pac10: 1
CAA: 1
A10: 1
Horizon: 1

Chaos Reigns. And it's only Day One!

Other journalists have called yesterday “one of the most thrilling opening days in memory.”

It’s hard to disagree.

Quick recap: After my beloved mountaineers beat Clemson, we had four straight basketball matchups with game-winning shots.  ODU fell to Butler on a game-winner that was playing chicken with the clock- the ball literally left the shooter’s hands with less than .1 seconds left.  Morehead St upended Louisville on an incredibly impressive shot from way behind the arc in an effort to completely trash my bracket as early as possible (good thing I took them out of the national championship game on my bracket, right?).  Penn St hit a go-ahead game winner, only to be answered by Temple’s game winner with essentially no time left on the clock.  And finally, after Princeton brought Kentucky to the brink of an all new definition of one and done, Brandon Knight’s first field goal of the day was the game winner, a runner off the backboard with 2 seconds left.

What an afternoon.  No matter what was in store for the night, the day was already to be declared epic.  But seriously, four game winning shots?  How do you top that?  What’s the least expected thing then?  Answer: Chalk.  Lots and lots of chalk.  After Richmond upset Vandy, just about every favored team won.  The only “upset” was a peaking Gonzaga team over an injured St Johns team, which hardly qualifies as an upset.  Many people saw upsets without upsets even occurring, like Cincinatti soundly beating Missouri in a game many people thought Missouri would easily win.

So what should you look for today?  Most of the top teams are in action today, including 3 of the top 4 and 5 of the top 8.  If you’re looking for good matchups, check out UNLV vs Illinois and Xavier vs Marquette.  If you’re looking for big storylines, check out infamous yet still mid-major George Mason taking on a Villanova team that’s lost 10 of their last 15 games, the last to lowly South Florida.  Alternatively, you can watch VCU in its second game against a Georgetown team that no one really knows what to expect from them with Christ Wright at an unknown level of play after returning from (non-shooting) hand surgery.  And if you’re looking for some possible upsets, look no further than Oakland v Texas.  The tremendously talented freshman from Texas, Tristan Thompson, will be showcased against an Oakland team with their own first-round pick (Keith Benson).  This kid is not just a built up kid from some team you’ve never heard of.  Much like Kenneth Faried, he’s legit.  Ask Louisville.  One other upset to watch for is a consistently inconsistent Florida St team taking on Texas A&M.  While the game is sure to be incredibly boring (lots of defense, no offense), the implications of the winner are incredibly interesting as they will most likely face Notre Dame in the second (or perhaps third now?) round.  In fact, I have my winner of this game upsetting Notre Dame this weekend.  But I’ll save that surprised for later.

My predictions?  Look for UNLV to dominate inside as Illinois’ lack of inside game hurts them too much, and the mountain west sweeps its first round.  As far as Xavier goes, everything points toward a musketeer victory… yet my gut tells me Marquette.  So I’m going with them.  George Mason will euthanize Villanova, and VCU will pull as stunning upset as Georgetown’s chemistry is irreparably damaged with the likes of Wright’s hand.  As far as the upsets listed above, as good as Benson is, I can’t see Oakland putting it all together against a team that is vastly underseeded and was even in contention for a #1 seed at one point.  Also, I like Texas A&M to beat Florida St in a game that is close down to the end but very boring for the first 36 minutes. 

Rant Time: Don't Expect Any Tissues From Me (I'm looking at you, Seth Greenberg)

Can you smell it in the air, fellow sports fans?  Can you?  The fresh smell of paper in the midmorning?  Newly sharpened pencils scribbling away?  The sweet agony of defeat after the first weekend?  No, I'm not talking about the first day of school, I'm obviously talking about March Madness here.  By now, most of you probably know that I value Selection Sunday as a holiday which rivals Christmas, July 4, and my birthday combined.  In other words, I love March Madness.  If I could legally marry my bracket, I would.

However, some people don't share the same love for yesterday.

By now, you've all probably heard about the "UAB/VCU" fiasco.  You've all probably heard many of the bubble coaches crying on national TV- mostly a metaphor, but there's always some crazy guy that can't keep it together in his 30 second ESPN/CBS spot).  And certainly you've probably heard the inordinate amount of excuse making and finger pointing coming from Boulder, Tuscaloosa, and Blacksburg.  Good people of my readership, I'm here to tell you one thing, and one thing only.

Don't expect any tissues from me.  That's right.  I said it.

I'm looking at you, Colorado head coach Ted Boyle.  You're shocked you didn't make the tournament?  Really?  Hey, I've got an idea.  Maybe you should actually play an out of conference schedule, because by my reckoning, the Boulder Nursing Home's JV team probably could have given you a better level of competition outside of Big 12 play.  In case you didn't know, there are about 340 teams in Division 1 college basketball- that includes Duke, Kansas, and Kentucky all the way down to East Tennessee State and Wofford College.  Even the 16 seeds that everyone annually writes off (because let's face it, they can't and won't win) are in D1.  Out of the 340ish teams in cbb, do you know what Colorado's out of conference schedule ranked?  320.  That's abysmal.  That's terrible.  I could play a harder schedule playing pickup 2 on 2 on my break at the YMCA in between shifts.  Colorado men's basketball team, please remember that the burden of proof to earn your at large bid lies with you and you alone.  If you can’t prove that you belong by playing quality competition outside of the Big 12, you don’t belong in the NCAA tournament.  Period.  They don’t care if you beat Kansas State three times.  They don’t care that you beat Texas and Missouri on your home court.  Prove that you can play teams besides the 11 in your conference.  That’s what the committee wants to see, and it’s not exactly a new criteria.  You’re shocked you didn’t get a bid?  I’m shocked that you’re shocked at all.

And yes, I’m looking at you, Alabama head coach Anthony Grant.  You know, as an incredibly successful head coach at VCU, I would think you would remember how to win games in the non-conference.  VCU played remarkably well under your tenure and actually took down Duke to make it to the sweet sixteen in the postseason a few years back.  What happened?  Unlike Ted Boyle, you scheduled some games out of conference… you weren’t exactly playing world beaters, but the OOC schedule was nothing to sneeze at.  So clearly you remembered how to schedule.  However, it seems you forgot how to win.  You lost at Purdue?  Understandable- so did Ohio State.  Oklahoma State?  Well… okay.  Everyone has a loss that’s ever so slightly unfavorable.  But Seton Hall?  Iowa?  Providence?  ST PETERS?  Come on man, who cares if you went 12-4 playing in the SEC west?  My eight year old camp kids could match that mark!  You want to know why Georgia, that team you beat twice, got in over you?  They won their out of conference games.  They went out and played Notre Dame and Temple, and kept it close.  They beat UAB.  They beat Colorado.  They beat Georgia Tech.  Next time, try winning games.

And oh yes, Virginia Tech coach Seth Greenberg, am I looking at you.  Are you kidding me?  You think the committee “has an agenda” and that agenda “doesn’t include Virginia Tech?”  ARE YOU SERIOUS?  Maybe before you dissect the committee’s agenda, you should take a good hard look at your own, and  out if the word CHOKING is in BIG bold CAPITAL LETTERS!  You got one good win!  Congrats on beating Duke, seriously.  It’s a marquee win that you should be proud of.  It does not, however, exempt you from the rest of your season.  Do you know what you did after that big ole win of yours, Seth?  Do you?  (And I say you, because everything you’re team does is your responsibility as the head coach, believe it or not)  You lost at home to Boston College.  You know, that team that’s even further down the bubble than you, that was competing for your spot?  Actually, lost would be a nice word.  Virginia Tech got embarrassed.  They got destroyed.  They got manhandled.  And they followed it up with some good old fashioned salt in the wound, a loss to fellow bubble team Clemson.  At the end of the day, Coach Greenberg, I’d take a good hard look in the mirror.  Clemson is playing in Dayton, and you are not.  You lost your regular season-ending game to what team?  Clemson.  That might not mean anything to you, but it certainly meant something to the committee.  And guess whose opinion counts?  Not yours.  An agenda?  How dare you deflect responsibility like that, after losing not only your last two regular season games, but virtually every single significant non-conference game your team played.  If I was the AD at Virginia Tech, I would fire you so fast that it would make you wonder if I had an agenda that didn’t involve Seth Greenberg.

Let this be a warning to all of you future bubble coaches out there.  There will always be a UAB.  There will always be that team that you think doesn’t deserve to get in over you.  But if they don’t deserve to get in, yet they did- what does that say about your team that didn’t?  It is your responsibility to prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that your team belongs in the at large field of 37 teams.  Should you leave that doubt, you are opening the door to allow yourself to be left out; at the end of the day, not proving you’re worthy is the exact same as proving you’re not worthy.  Schedule good teams, and beat them.  It may not be easy.  But it is simple.

Fun with Math (and Other Hobbies that Won't Get me Invited to Parties)

Since this week is centered all around bracket possibilities, autobids, and the ever-changing bubble, I thought I'd do a piece that breaks down the math behind tournament selections.  So if you're looking to understand the big dance a little further... BEHOLD!  bracket math:


Including the "new" bids that have been added to the postseason this year, there are now 68 bids to the NCAA tournament.  31 teams get to the tournament via "autobids," one from each major Division 1 conference.  Most conferences choose to award an autobid based on the winner of their own postseason tournament (hence the importance of this week).  However, some conferences (most prominently the Ivy League) choose to award their autobid based on the winner of the regular season instead of a conference tournament.

So, since 31/68 are automatic handouts, the remaining 37 are referred to as "at large" bids.  Basically, the committee chooses the best remaining 37 teams based on marquee wins, overall records, strength of schedule, and the infamous "eye" test- how good you feel a team is just by watching it.

Now, here's where it gets interesting.

By my reckoning, the following teams are locks for at large bids.  For the purposes of this conversation, their seeding is irrelevant.

Duke
North Carolina
Florida State
Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Syracuse
West Virginia
Cincinatti
Louisville
St Johns
UConn
Ohio St
Purdue
Wisconsin
Kansas
Texas
Kansas State
Texas A&M
Missouri
Arizona
UCLA
Washington
Florida
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
San Diego State
BYU
UNLV
Xavier
Temple
George Mason
ODU
Gonzaga
St Marys
Richmond

In case you weren't counting, that's 37 teams.  However, because the above teams represent ten conferences which will all get multiple bids (the power 6 plus the MWC, the WCC, the CAA, and the A10), you can subtract 10 from the 37 to represent the above teams that are strong enough to get at large bids, but will end up with autobids and thus not take up an at large spot.

That leaves 10 spots available for all teams that do not get an autobid and are not listed above.  10 spots, people.  Remember that.

Now, for list number two.  The following are teams that are on the "bubble."  (They're profiles are not strong enough in order to guarentee an at large bid at this time).

Villanova
Marquette
Clemson
Virginia Tech
Boston College
Illinois
Michigan State
Colorado
Nebraska
Baylor
USC
Georgia
Alabama
Colorado State
Missouri State
Utah State
UAB

As you can see, I have listed 17 teams.  Only ten can enter the tournament; only six can avoid the "first four" round in Dayton, Ohio next Tuesday, where you essentially are playing your way into the round of 64 (even those these teams technically were already picked by the selection committee).  Who does ESPN think will go?  Well, ESPN's expert bracketologist Joe Lunardi can be found with his most updated picks here.  And if you wanna check out his latest live chat with fans, check that out here.  (you might recognize one of the participants)

As for my opinion?  Well, the bubble is so soft this year that I couldn't possibly figure out who the committee would pick.  But if I was in charge, I would probably choose the following ten teams, after slitting my wrists for lack of better teams to put forward.

Villanova
Marquette
Illinois
Michigan
UAB
Clemson
Boston College
Utah St
Georgia
Colorado

Check out the blog tomorrow for tournament updates and predictions.

Champs Week Update

Hi all, welcome back.  The blog returns from a hiatus that is 90% caused by some technical problems, and 10% caused by a very busy last week before my spring break.  Though I have been keeping up with the news, what I've been writing hasn't been posted for whatever reason.  I will work to fix the problem and get my former pieces back up and on here for you all to read.  In the meantime, I'm going to start writing on a new schedule.  Because we are now officially in the college basketball postseason, I will be updating everyone daily on major conference tournament games as well as autobids on a daily basis through the end of the college basketball postseason.  And I will also be offering my wonderful opinion along with everything, which of course is why all you lovely people come here to begin with.  Right?