(That, and I'm writing this from a friend's couch in Loudoun County, so I'd like to wrap this up quickly.)
Welcome to Seattle
The GameDay crew is headed to a game featuring an I-guess-they're-good Washington team and an I-guess-they're-getting-better USC. Which is all well and good, I suppose. The Pac-12 is down this year, and with the average viewer is starting to get a little tired of watching the same four teams on Saturday morning. Combine the two, and you've got a game where the hype is more manufactured than endemic. But hey, maybe something crazy will happen.
However, if Reese and Co. strictly went to the best game of the week, they'd likely be setting up shop in suburban Philadelphia, on the Catholic grounds of Villanova University.
Offense vs Defense
It doesn't take a football wizard to assemble the storyline for this year's iteration of Cats vs Dogs. JMU is averaging just under 50 points per game, and 46ppg in CAA play. They are No. 5 in the Coaches Poll and No. 4 in the FCS playoff rankings. Across all metrics, JMU unquestionably wields the best offense in the CAA; they might have the best offense in FCS football.
Villanova, meanwhile, has the best defense in the CAA. Stats from conference play, through last weekend's matchups:
- No. 1 Scoring Defense (11.8ppg)
- No. 2 Rushing Defense (98.8 ypg)
- No. 2 Passing Defense (142.0 ypg)
- No. 1 Total Defense (240.8 ypg)
- No. 2 Turnover Margin (+5)
- No. 1 Pass Defense Efficiency (50.9%, 88.1 Eff)
- No. 1 First Downs Allowed (77)
- No. 2 Third Down Conversion Defense (31.2%)
- No. 1 Sacks (17)
And while we're at it, here's two more stats for you: Villanova leads the CAA in Time of Possession, averaging 34:31 per game.
And, in conference play, Villanova has allowed two passing touchdowns all season. They haven't allowed a passing touchdown since their 23-0 loss to Richmond, which was almost a month ago by now.
JMU beat Richmond, and Richmond beat Nova, so obvs JMU will win because math
Please don't embarrass yourself.
Preparing for Schor
Congrats to @bryanschor, who has just been added to the @FCS_STATS Walter Payton Award Watch List. #GoDukeshttps://t.co/gFRHYnpEsl— JMU Football (@JMUFootball) November 9, 2016
Per Greg Madia, the DNR's not-really-that-new-anymore JMU football guy, Villanova head coach Andy Talley has said regarding Schor that "The truth of the matter is, there's really no good way to defend him." That continues to ring true as Schor has elevated his level of play these last few weeks, showing a command of the offense that is rare to see at the FCS level. He's won three of the past four CAA player of the week awards, he's on national watchlists, and he's presiding over an offense that hasn't failed to outscore an FCS opponent since last season. Not bad for his first real year of starts.
Forecasting forward -- Mike Houston and the offense decided on more designed runs for Schor last week in RVA, which means Villanova is likely to incorporate some sort of spy role into their defensive assignments. Villanova runs a 3-3-5 stack defense, which is pretty rare in the annals of college football. However, if you're thinking to yourself, "wow, that sounds familiar," then it's probably because West Virginia runs the exact same unbalanced defense, and you've heard me talk about it here.
A 3-3-5 stack essentially means that the nickelback is part of the base defense. For West Virginia and Rich Rod's Arizona team, it's a great adaptation because of all the high-octane offenses that defenses see in the Pac 12/Big 12. It's somewhat unorthodox that Villanova runs it in the mostly conservative CAA, but it does give them a slight advantage against an offense like JMU, which likes to toss the ball around a little more than its peers.
The trade-off in running an unbalanced defense is that you're more vulnerable up front. Villanova gets away with this because the bodies they field on the line of scrimmage are really, really big and athletic -- Coach Houston did a good job articulating that in his press conference on Tuesday. For JMU to win, they need to re-establish the dominance of the run game early on with Abdullah and Johnson. A winning game plan could see 40-50 rushes, with JMU's play at the line of scrimmage wearing down Villanova's big front.
Likewise, if Villanova wins, it's likely because its defensive line and linebackers won their individual assignments, clogged the running lanes, and used their advantage on the back end to hamstring JMU's passing attack.
And don't forget -- as if the matchup here wasn't enough to make this game enticing, the winner of this game is all but assured a piece of the CAA title. There's extra motivation on the line for JMU -- with a win, the Dukes put themselves in excellent position for an unblemished FCS record and sole possession of the CAA regular season title. And in the CAA, any team winning the regular season championship outright is a somewhat rare event.
Hot Team vs Better Team: Mountaineers go to Austin
Texas has really been figuring some stuff out the last few weeks, just in time for ESPN to stop obsessing over when Charlie Strong would be fired. D'Onta Foreman is sneaking his way onto Heisman ballots. The Texas Longhorns aren't terrible, after all.
Well, the offense isn't, at least. The defense is still pretty bad, which is why I expect West Virginia will win this game and run its record to 8-1 ahead of a Top-10 showdown with Oklahoma in Morgantown. Foreman will likely rack up some yards for all the reasons I talked about above, in terms of a strong running game playing against a 3-3-5 stack.
My head says that WVU's defense will force way more stops than its burnt orange counterpart. However, these WVU-Texas games have been pretty wild....
Nah, let's not get too crazy. West Virginia will score 35-45. College GameDay is going to Morgantown next weekend.
USC (6-3, 5-2) at Washington (9-0, 6-0), 7:30pm
I talked a little bit about this game in the opener, but I don't want to totally write this one off as a snoozefest. Southern Cal was panned after an early-season blowout loss to Alabama, but the Trojans are currently on a 5-game winning streak that includes a home win over a pretty good Colorado team. They've put up 40+ points in four of those last five games, too. Meanwhile, Washington has confirmed that Joe Mathis is gone for the season, and the Husky pass rush with Mathis vs without Mathis is night and day.
Southern Cal could make this interesting. Outside of a win at Utah, Washington really hasn't impressed me too terribly much. Because of GameDay, I think UW stays focused and pulls it out, but I'm not at all convinced that this game won't be competitive.
JMU WBB vs No. 13 Tennessee
One of JMU's premiere programs begins its chase for a fourth consecutive NCAA tournament bid Friday night in Harrisonburg. There's a lot to say about this game --
- It's a contest between two of the four winningest programs in the history of Women's College Basketball
- It marks the return of redshirt senior Precious Hall, who missed all of last year with an ACL injury. She is the CAA's preseason player of the year.
- It's the first official game for newly minted head coach Sean O'Regan.
It's always a big deal when JMU hosts a ranked team in Harrisonburg, in any sport. I'm always impressed with the crowds for WBB games -- the JMU community does an excellent job showing a dominant team the support they deserve. So if you're in the Burg, skip your Friday night pregame and just root, damn it.
House Announcement:
In case you missed it, I wrote a political Op-Ed earlier this week. It was an evaluation of what went wrong for the Democratic nominee, from a person with no real political party affiliation. I wrote the entire thing without using the phrase "echo chamber" a single time. Sometimes, even I have to admire my own restraint.
Debts and Diseases Double-Down
The blog was 4-1 last week. Move along, move along. Nothing to see here.
$: Arkansas +7/LSU
$$: UVA+10.5/Miami
$$$: West Virginia +2/Texas
Chalk pick of the week: Oklahoma -18 over Baylor. I don't deny that this bet is incredibly reactionary, but it looks like the line is pretty reactionary, too. I'm of the opinion that Baylor is in the midst of falling off a very steep cliff. And if you can lose by 40 at home to TCU, why not by 20 on the road at a top-10 team?
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