Welcome to my week dedicated to the anticipation many of us are feeling for the beginning of the college football season! With the publication of this year's preseason coaches poll, I thought I'd go through and highlight my own top teams to watch going into the preseason. I'll be doing 5 a day for the remainder of the week in ascending order. For each team, I'll name why they're ranked where they are, what's holding them back, and what you can expect from them over the course of the season- all my own humble opinions of course. Everyone should feel free to disagree. Also, notice that there's a new poll on the blog- something I have neglected for lack of content this summer- so take a look and voice your opinions.
While I'll be taking a look at my top 20 for the rest of the week, I wanted to talk a little bit today about teams you shouldn't expect to see in my rankings. Because of the scale of the top 25 polls, many voters often fill the voids with power teams that are traditionally good from year to year because of the lack of information. Sometimes they just carry teams over that were successful the previous year- it's just the nature of the game. So I spent the better part of the last seven days compiling information, and now I'm ready to give you the filler teams from most polls that you should ignore, at least for now, until they prove themselves in the coming weeks:
TEXAS
Why they could contend: It's really the same reason why they could contend every year. Texas lies in the heart of one of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country. When you mix four and five star recruits with top-of-the-line facilities, you always have the ability to be a pretty solid team. Many of the same pieces are still in place from last year too, which means more experienced players are around to improve on the Longhorn's 2010 5-7 campaign.
Why they won't contend: What's changed since last year? Coaches have been switched around, but it's primarily the same offense, same defense, and most of the same players that didn't jel. Mainly, it's the presence of quarterback Garrett Gilbert, who just isn't that great of a leader or player. Unlike most bigtime signalcallers, Gilbert really lacks the inner fire that drive most of these college football stars... watching him is not exciting. He lacks a lot of confidence, and that carries over and affects the play of his teammates. A loaded quarterback stable, including Colt McCoy's little brother, is going to put some pressure on Gilbert to play better this year, but don't expect much to be different.
What you should expect: Expect the record to be a little better; don't expect the team to be much better. I expect Texas to drop at least three conference games (expect the longhorns to go 1-3 out of games @Missouri, @A&M, Oklahoma, OkSt) plus their road game at UCLA. An 8-4 record is enough to get Texas into a lower tier bowl game, but I expect a fired up team with less talent to come in and steal a victory. Texas will end its season 8-5: a step in the right direction after a losing season for Mack Brown but still far from where expectations lie in the heart of longhorn nation.
Notre Dame
Why they could contend: The installation of former Cincinatti coach Brian Kelly has Notre Dame heading toward a Recruiting Rennaissance. In many ways, BK has been made out to be the Messiah that the Fighting Irish need, and that could still very well prove true. BK fervor has attracted a lot of young talent to South Bend, and the defense that Notre Dame puts forth should be above average this year. On the offensive side of the ball, Brian Kelly is a mastermind of putting points on the board, and any offense he's commanding has to be given some respect.
Why they won't contend: Departures from last year's offense already have hurt the Irish. They retain their best wide receiver, but serious off the field/mentality issues may threaten his ability to contribute. Possibly the most worrisome preseason problem plaguing the Notre Dame offense is the giant quarterback controversy. Four different athletes are all competing for their chance to call the signals for the offense, but Brian Kelly has decided to not make a decision in the immediate future. Instead, he will wait until ten days before the team's first game to decide who will be leading the offense- a highly risky move that could create serious controversy and consternation in the backfield.
What you should expect: Kelly is building Notre Dame into a contender, but the Irish aren't quite there yet. Look for a very underrated and speedy South Florida team to come in and shock Notre Dame in the very first weekend, setting the home upset tone for the remainder of the year. The Irish also host, among other teams, Boston College, USC, Air Force, and Michigan State. I expect them to go 2-2 against these four teams. I also think they will drop games at Pitt and Stanford, thus finishing the season at 7-5. Though technically it's a worse finish than their 8-4 mark from last year, Kelly is going in the right direction and the program will reascend to greater heights in the next few years.
TCU
Why they could contend: Coach Gary Patterson has escalated TCU's football program to a new level. They are constantly in the national spotlight and have established a tradition of excellence in the last 10-15 years. This much is obvious, seeing as they were recently invited to join an AQ conference. The AQ invitation only helped to create more hype around the program, and recruits have been flooding to the horned frogs in waves. Patterson has consistenly put together tough defenses that are capable of allowing this team to hang around with anyone.
Why they won't contend: Don't get me wrong- the defense is still good. But it's not quite the same as it was in the previous few years. The linebacker positions are still a huge strength for the horned frogs, but heavy depletions on the front d-line as well as in the secondary have left the defense slightly more vulnerable. I'm not saying the recruits aren't capable in their own right- they certainly are- but this won't be the same defense that halted the insane power-running game of Wisconsin in last year's Rose Bowl. On the other side of the ball, celebrated TCU quarterback Andy Dalton has graduated and declared for the NFL draft, and the heir to his position is probably not quite as skilled as he was at running the TCU offense. Finally, the Mountain West did the frogs no scheduling favors in their last year in the conference before their move to the big east. TCU must face an early challenge at Baylor, and travel to both Boise and San Diego State. These and other road challenges could put a damper on the expectations for Patterson's squad; a perfect season repeat is pretty unlikely.
What you should expect: TCU probably drops two games at the minimum, probably even three. They still get to go to a bowl game, where they will likely dominate some lesser AQ team from the middle of their conference. TCU grabs another 10+ win season as they leave the mountain west for the big east, but the comparison to last year's undefeated Rose Bowl winners leaves frog fans yearning for just a little bit more.
Michigan State
Why they could contend: Quarterback Kirk Cousins in a winner. The Spartan stable of runningbacks is formiddable, there's no question. Though this team did get absolutely walloped by an angry Alabama team in last year's Capital One bowl, they were still a very solid group that shared the Big Ten title. A big portion of that experienced, skilled team returns. So why wouldn't they be able to put it together this year?
Why they won't contend: The Spartans took a pretty big hit to their front 7 on the defensive side of the ball, which might make many of their games this year into more of a shootout. Cousins and his runningbacks are very good, but at the same time... if you had to choose an offense to win you a shootout, would Michigan State's immediately come to mind? In addition, much of MSU's success last year was thanks to an incredibly favorable schedule. As nice as last year's was, this year's is just the opposite. The Spartans play some serious cupcakes in their non-conference, and probably won't be ready for their first road game at Notre Dame. Don't bet on that game folks- it could go either way. If the Spartans can escape South Bend with the W, they must soon travel to Ohio State- another game that could go either way because of the multiple player suspensions Ohio State will suffer from for their first five games (MSU is OSU's fifth game). The spartans do get to host both Michigan and Wisconsin, but they must later travel to Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern. By the end of the season, I think MSU's runningbacks get eaten up by injuries because of the lack of other playmakers, and the Spartans drop at least 4 games. They do make a bowl game at 8-4, but surprisingly drop their postseason game to a lesser team to finish 8-5.
Auburn
Why they could contend: Any time a team wins a national championship, their recruiting skyrockets. While Auburn's recruiting hasn't been nearly as good as other recent national champions (many of their desired recruits have jumped ship to conference rival Florida or archrival Alabama), they've still had a solid intake of young talent to keep the wins coming in.
Why they won't contend: Can you honestly name an offensive player from last year's national championship team besides Cam Newton? It's harder than you think. Auburn's defense was great last year; with the loss of Nick Fairley and others to the NFL draft, it reverts to just good. As for the offense, it was 100% powered by the versatility of Cam Newton. The SEC is not a league often associated with dual threat quarterbacks (it's more of a big 12/ACC thing, and the big east gets some good ones every once in a while too), so when a team gets a Cam Newton or a Tim Tebow that has any amount of running talent at all... forget about it. You couple that with a good defense and you've perfected the formula for a national championship team. With the loss of Auburn's home run hitting ability, their offense will slack back into the mediocrity of three years ago. It doesn't matter if you have a good defense when your offense can't put up enough points outscore the other team.
What you should expect: Auburn plays in the SEC west, which is somehow even more loaded than it was last year. Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi State are all solid top 25 teams this year, not to mention at least one very good team from the east (South Carolina). Auburn might be a decent team in other conferences, but expect them to get lost in the mix of incredible talent that is the SEC West. They could manage to squeak by Mississippi State at home in week 2, but @SCAR, @Arkansas, @LSU, and @Georgia are all games they will most likely drop. Don't forget a loss to a far superior Alabama team in the Iron Bowl. Factor in a probable 1-1 record between hosting Florida and visiting Clemson, and you're looking at team one year removed from a national championship that could very well end up at 6-6... or worse.
Georgia
Why they could contend: Nabbing the top runningback in the country always helps your offense go, and the bulldogs have an above average defense led by guys like linebacker Jarvis Jones, who was recently cleared by the NCAA to play for Georgia this year. With many of the defensive pieces falling into place, and an incredibly friendly SEC schedule, it looks like Georgia could finally be back to their 10 win form that dominated the SEC for most of the last decade, but mysteriously disappeared for the last few years.
Why they won't contend: Sure, the dawgs grabbed the top runningback, but huge holes in their offensive line aren't going to support the inexperienced true freshman very much. And if he gets injured, Georgia's RB depth is shallower than the kiddie pool at your neighborhood recreational facilities. Either way, Georgia's offense is already going to be pretty one-dimensional, with the pass attack averaging a very low yards-per-attempt mark the last few years; the departure of receiver AJ Green isn't gonna help that stat either. If SEC teams start loading the box against Georgia's run, it could be trouble- and it appears that the team doesnt have the star power at receiver to keep defenses honest.
What you should expect: Georgia is going to stumble out of the gate. Even though the Boise State Broncos will yet again traverse the country to play an east coast AQ team, and even though I seriously doubt their ability to pull away with a win, the boys from Idaho have a reputation for pulling out wins against upper level teams. Georgia could win a game against Boise... or it could drop it. Either way, I don't see them beating South Carolina one week later, and the game against Mississippi State is a toss up too. Tennessee is a bit of a trap game because the Vols match up well against the dawgs, and Florida is never a gimme game. Between those five games, I expect Georgia to go 2-3. An incredibly easy SOS will probably allow the bulldawgs to win at least 6 of their remaining 7 games, and they will probably wind up somewhere around
8-5 or 9-4. The bulldawgs will be denied another ten win season, but the uptick in ticket sales, program interest, and wins will save Mark Richt's job.
Tomorrow I start my top 20 countdown. Keep it here for more college football!
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