Today I kick off my four part mini series on my preseason poll. This is not based on the Harris Poll, Coaches Poll, AP Poll, or ESPN poll. Instead, this is based off my own research, opinions, and trends that I note. For each team, I will highlight some strengths, some weaknesses, and what you should probably expect from the team over the course of the season. The poll will ascend through the week from the bottom rung all the way to my top 5, which will be revealed early next week. Without further ado:
20. South Florida
Why they could contend: The Bulls home in Tampa places them in one of the very best recruiting grounds in the entire country, and their rosters usually show it. They are constantly loaded with top-notch, speedy talent on the defensive side of the ball. This year is no exception, as USF looks to be one of the top two defenses in the Big East. Seasoned quarterback BJ Daniels is a dual threat who looks to finally be putting everything together the right way. A pretty favorable schedule could net the bulls their first Big East title.
Where their problems lie: South Florida has a nasty habit of looking like a national title hopeful in the beginning of their season but more like a FCS practice squad by the end. Second year coach Skip Holtz shows some promise, but he may need a couple more years before he really has the program soaring. And oh yeah- this is the second or third year I've thought BJ Daniels was really gonna put it all together.
What you can expect: I think South Florida comes out swinging and pulls an absolutely massive shocker in South Bend. Now in the national spotlight, the bulls coast through September playing their relatively-timid-after-we-get-through-Notre-Dame nonconference schedule. The bulls prove the doubters wrong again by winning at Pitt and grab their first top 20 ranking in quite some time as the calendar heads into October. The bulls win and win right up until the beach-accustomed team pays a November trip to upstate New York. Looking forward to the upcoming week's Miami game, the relatively young squad gets tripped up by Syracuse, and the bulls unravel at the end yet again by dropping three of their last four games. They still finish the season with an improved record and a near-the-top-of-the-big-east finish, but Bulls fans still aren't appeased with their teams performance.
19. Virginia Tech
Why they could contend: I don't exactly expect a loaded ACC this year (don't be surprised if the ACC never gets more than two teams in the top 25), and Virginia Tech pulls enough quality talent to put forward a conference contender every year. Freakishly fast runningback David Wilson returns to the squad and will likely anchor a young offense with a whiplash-inducing ground attack. New hokie quarterback Logan Thomas will be a powerful force to be reckoned with too, standing at 6 feet 6 inches. This team will challenge for the ACC title just as they always do.
Where their problems lie: I make it no secret that I kind of despise Virginia Tech fans. It comes with the territory of growing up a WVU fan, but it's also because they think that their team walks on water every year. Fans of the team from Blacksburg: put a serious lid on it this year, or you might look foolish. The offensive line has a few issues that need to be worked out before David Wilson breaks off 40 yards every other play like he is probably capable of. Logan Thomas has potential- but he also has 0 games that he has started in. Most importantly, the entire defensive line will have to be replaced- a defensive line that also anchor's Frank Beamer's notorious "Beamer Ball" special teams. I don't see Tech dropping any games to FCS opponents in Lane Stadium this year (though App State is always pretty good, and they have slayed a Goliath before), but I also don't see them coming close to beating Florida State in a potential Championship rematch from last year either.
What you can expect: I heard a rumor that some SOS system actually ranked Virginia Tech's schedule the easiest in all of FBS football. It wouldn't surprise me- they play 8 ACC games, two C-USA games, one sunbelt team, and one FCS opponent. Both of the CUSA games are away, so look for Marshall/ECU to try to spring an upset. The hokies might run the table at home this year- the only real threat to beat them is Clemson, which has a reasonable shot- but their road schedule is a different story. I think Tech drops their game at Georgia Tech, and don't be surprised if this is finally the year UVA gets back into the UVA-VT rivalry. Tech is 9-4 after losing the ACC championship to Florida State and gets blown out for the second year in a row in their postseason bowl game. Hokie nation still thinks their team was the true national champion... if you just cut all those losses off the record.
18. Ohio State
Why they could contend: Despite the circus that has been the Buckeye offseason, Ohio State has great line play set up for this year. All-American line play, probably. They will win the battles in the trenches, and that always puts you in great position to win football games.
Where their problems lie: Where to even begin... new coach. New quarterback. New scandals constantly unfolding in the national spotlight. The pressure is seriously on this team to not suck like they probably should after everything that has happened in Columbus this last nine months or so. Don't forget the nice chunk of talent that can't play for the first five games, including a critical conference game at home against Michigan State.
What you can expect: Gauging how Ohio State is going to do over the entire upcoming football season is kind of like predicting the next country to stage a mass revolt using twitter: you might be able to take a couple educated guesses, but you're ultimately taking completely random shots in the dark. This unit could come together through all the crap that's happened, or it could completely wilt under pressure with a new head coach and very few leaders. I honestly have no idea. The one thing they do have is a lot of luck when it comes to who is schedule and when they're scheduled. Their first two games are cupcakes. The third game is long haul to the University of Miami (Fl), which could prove too challenging for the team to overcome... if Miami weren't experiencing their own hard times with a new coach. Colorado probably doesn't have the talent upfront to beat OSU in week four, and I don't think Michigan State has a credible enough pass rush threat to beat even an undermanned Ohio State team in Columbus. So it is incredibly possible that Ohio State escapes their first-five dilemna unscathed. Even a home game against Wisconsin seems a bit lucky- the buckeye's biggest strength is their line play, which could be solid enough to stop the badger run attack. Games at Nebraska and Illinois could prove challenging, but ultimately I think Ohio State ends up with a 10-2, non-BCS season. They even follow it up with a bowl win. Their crappy new coach will be made out to be a Messiah, obnoxious First Take interviews and all. Gag me now.
17. Arizona State
Why they could contend: Arizona State is a good team with a national-championship caliber defense. They are flying pretty far below the radar, as they weren't too good last year (though they came very close to springing some huge upsets quite a few times), and just missed out on entrance into the preseason coaches' poll. Expect any coach worth his tenure to turn that into motivation for any team with remote amounts of potential.
Where their problems lie: Here's one you don't hear a whole lot: discipline. If you ever watched the sun devils play last year, they are a horribly disciplined team. They rack up penalties faster than James Harrison racks up fines for illegal hits, and they're just as angry about it (and just as unwilling to do something about it, too). If this team wants to contend for the Pac-12 title, it has got to stop picking up penalties at inopportune moments. You can bet Stanford and Oregon won't be forgiving.
What you can expect: For one, look for a big sun devil test when Mizzou comes to town on a Friday night in week two. If Arizona can make a big time home stand, I guarentee they crack the top 25. Win again on the road the following week at Illinois, and you've earned the top 20. The problem is, I don't think this team will be disciplined enough to follow up a huge home shocker with a big road victory. This team opens 2-1, squeaks by USC, and bests Oregon State. At 4-1, you're still talking about a fringe top 20 team. They drop a game on the road to hungry newcomer Utah and don't stand a chance at lightning-pace Oregon. Another game is dropped at UCLA... State makes up for the poor October play by winning their big rivalry game against Arizona at home, but they still only finish 8-4. The sun devils almost squander a big halftime lead in their bowl game as the offense struggles in the second half under a new quarterback that's still being broken in, even in late december. They hang on to win, but only because of the high caliber of their defense. Still, wins in both the postseason bowl AND the main rivalry game, in addition to a much improved 9-4 season, leaves sun devil fans satisfied.
16. Oklahoma State
Why they could contend: All Oklahoma State did last year was have the number one offense in the country when they were picked to finish at the bottom of the big 12. Returning qb Brandon Weeden and returning receiver phenom Justin Blackmon are great players and even better in tandem. They're playing in a system that lets them flourish while putting up rediculous numbers. The entire offensive line is a good unit too- look for their offensive line to lead the country in sacks allowed (a good unit + a system that employs lots of quick passes). And while everybody is talking about the offense, don't sleep on the Cowboys' secondary- it's not too bad either.
Where their problems lie: The secondary is about all that's solid on the Oklahoma State defense. Running and play action passes are going to absolutely kill them every time. Ironically, the cowboys might need to look to shootouts to wins quite a few games this year.
What you can expect: The 2011 Oklahoma State Cowboys are going to be an experiment in System vs Coach. Can the system really flourish without the mastermind of a coach that engineered it? Dana Hologorsen left Stillwater to become the Head-Coach-in-Waiting/Offensive Coordinator/actually-the-head-coach-after-all at West Virginia. Weeden and Blackmon know the Air Raid offense well enough by now to run it efficiently and effectively without Coach Holgorsen around to hold their hand as they practice, but I still think that the offense sees some significant dropoff. They're going to be good, but not nearly as good as the pundits think they will be. In a pretty loaded would-have-been-the-big-12-south, expect a step back toward mediocrity. I think they finish 8-4 in a difficult conference year and go on to beat some scrub team in a bowl game.
Keep it here to find out if I allow my Mountaineers to crack the top 10 of my poll. Or maybe they didn't make it at all? You'll just have to wait to find out.
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