Saturday, December 31, 2011

BCS Countdown

A very happy New Year to you all, and welcome back.  The blog has been on extended leave, with finals, JMU athletic department work, and other fun stuff I've been up to.  For details, try texting me, you nosey lot.  I didnt start a sports blog to brag about how awesome I am.

But speaking of the inception of this sports blog, I would like to take a moment to reflect on the last year.  Believe it or not, at this time last year I was a declared Biology major, intent on studying to be a genetic counselor.  Over the past 365 days I have become a WRTC major, started a surprisingly well-read sports blog (48 hits from Germany alone in December?), hung out in press boxes, sat courtside for basketball games, talked shit with Mickie Matthews, and called the sports information director by his first name- I don't know why that last one impresses me so much, but it does.  Anyway, it's been a wild year for me, but I have all of you readers to thank for that.  Thanks for putting up with my twitter rants and improving my self-esteem by checking the "cool" box.  Thanks for frequently calling me 4 minutes after I've posted a blog to tell me about editing errors (okay, that one is only my mom).  Thanks for bragging to friends about me. 

Thanks for taking the time out of your day to listen to my opinions.  Because, ultimately, all I have to offer is a writing style and a big basket of opinions.  The fact that mine are sought above many others is an invaluable asset.


Okay, enough of that.  Let's get on to the business of the day- counting down BCS games by level of interest!

Now, please note that I am rating BCS games solely on level of interest and watchability.  I am in no way making comment on the quality of teams or where I believe the teams shoud be ranked in the BCS poll.


5. BCS National Championship Game: Alabama vs LSU

Let's cut the crap here people.  I don't care if it's the national championship.  The last time this game was played, it was maybe the most hyped up game of all time.  "Game of the century," it was billed.  Final score? 9-6, in overtime.  What is this, the world series?  I don't care how many All-Americans are in this game, it was physically painful to watch the first time.  Gene W. from ESPN wrote an excellent response where he announced, and i quote: "Only a classic is worthy of a Jan. 9 rematch in New Orleans. And this wasn't one of them."  I couldn't agree more, yet that's what we're going to be dragged into watching.  The unpronouncable Geney wrote that "classics don't have four interceptions, four missed field goals, 13 penalties, one fumble, one botched punt return and zero touchdowns."  If someone described a game you might potentially watch in advance and told you it would have four picks, four missed field goals, and no touchdowns... does that sound like an exciting game to you?

I know defense wins championships.  All I'm saying is that it doesn't win TV ratings too.


4. Sugar Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Michigan

Alright, so I pretty much despise both of these programs. But so what? This game is still kind of lame.  Let's put aside the fact that neither of these teams really belong in this game because, though I am obsessed with complaining about how unfair it is that these two teams received at large bids, it doesn't have anything to do with the actual watchability of the game.  Instead, let's focus on the notable run game plotline.  We've got Denard "I'm-not-quite-as-good-as-Pat-White-despite-1000-comparisons-a-game" Robinson and his impressive dual threat capabilities against the light speed of David Wilson.  This game will revolve around which one of those two players will make more plays.  Both defenses really suck- especially Michigan's, regardless of what their inflated stats say- so expect lots of big plays from both sides.  That may be the only redeeming quality to this game.  Virginia Tech's special teams kind of suck too; even Tech fans won't argue with you on how bad their kicking game is, and when Tech fans admit something is bad, then you know it must be REALLY bad.


3. Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Wisconsin

I love this matchup because its sort of a sign of the times bowl game.  We've got the classic, gigantic offensive line, power running game with Wisconsin vs the spread option speed of Oregon. I also love that both of these teams were unstoppable last year, yet both got beat in their respective BCS games.  Don't forget about the qb dual between Darron Thomas and Russell Wilson- both are mobile and can beat you both ways.  In a game contestng two teams with dominating runningbacks, I'm looking for whoever has the edge in the passing game.  Watch the exposed matchup between Oregon's DB's, who are down their top cornerback, going against Wisconsin's wide receivers.


2. Orange Bowl- WVU vs Clemson

This is the most evenly matched bowl game of the entire postseason.  And talk about shootout potential, oh man.  The WVU defense has really stepped it up their last three games, but I'm not sure I'm buying the hype against the likes of South Florida.  They'll get their first real test since Cincinatti in Clemson, an offense that looked highly entertaining in th ACC chamionship against Virginia Tech.  Sammy Watkins is a star in the making, there's no denying that, but WVU has offensive playmakers literally all over the place.  Whoever comes up with the last defensive stop probably wins in a wildly high scoring game. 

1. Fiesta Bowl- Stanford vs Oklahoma State

Admit it. You thought I was going to rank the Orange Bow highest because of West Virginia.

In all seriousness, this quarterback dual is one for the ages.  You've got the second coming of John Elway going up against Brandon Weeden, the quintessential Air Raid quarterback.  Weeden and OSU's offense is the WVU offense, just 1000 times better.  Their quarterback is older, smarter, and knows how to play within himself.  Justin Blackmon is Stedman Bailey, just much more freakishly athletic.  Oh yeah.  And they have a running game.  After that, it's literally the exact same offense, instituted by Dana Holgorsen at both schools.  But just becase I think State wins doesn't mean Stanford doesn't have weapons either.  Or maybe I should say weapon, singular.  Because all they need is Luck (pun intended).  Andrew Luck runs an old school tight end-centric offense and is supplemented by an incredibly average defense, and they look like the Green Bay Packers out there week in and week out.  So if you never watch another college football game again in your life, watch this one.  Because odds are, you will never see quarterback play like this in one college football game for the rest of your life.




Find out how you stack up against me.  My picks:  LSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, WVU, Oklahoma State

happy new year everyone!

Sunday, December 11, 2011

2011 Mid Majors Primer

Now that football is done and over with, we can all make the surprisingly difficult mental transition to basketball season. Once you’ve reminded yourself to look for new poll results one day later and adjusted yourself to the concept of actually meaningful games on a Wednesday night, we can all get on with the season!


If there’s one thing you can count on every year in basketball, it’s the same five or six programs being light years ahead of the other 300 schools in Division 1 basketball. I don’t mean to anoint the Duke’s and Kentucky’s of the world as unbeatable, but I do think it’s pretty hard to argue that their coaching, recruiting, and the intrinsic value of these bluebloods give them a consistently substantial leg up over other programs. So which nontraditional mid-major programs will bust through this year to challenge the familiar big boys? It may only be early December, but I’ve got five teams for you to watch as we chug right on through nonconference play:



5. Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt); The Blue Raiders might not face too much talent in the Sun Belt or their own out of conference schedule, but it’s hard to deny a team that leads all of college basketball in field goal percentage and averages 80 points a game. They’ve nabbed notable wins at Loyola Marymount and UCLA; those wins will improve their potential seeding if they can beat out Denver for the Sun Belt title. A late January showdown at Vanderbilt will show how dangerous this team can really be down the stretch. (Game to watch for- @Vanderbilt, January 28)-

4. Kent State (MAC); Kent State has a veteran team that knows how to close games and play unselfishly, as those of you who went to the Tuesday night game found out. This team has the schedule and the talent to play itself into the conversation for an at large berth in the NCAA tournament this year, and that’s probably a good thing. With Toledo and Ohio sniffing around with talented teams as well, the Mid-American could be looking at a rare multi-bid season. (Game to watch for- @Utah State, December 22)

3. Cleveland State (Horizon); Who’s Butler? The Vikes are out to prove that the Horizon league’s recent success has not been a flash in the plan. All Cleveland state has done this year is upset a top ten squad on the road in their opener and follow that up with quality wins against Rhode Island and fellow list member Kent state. Like the MAAC, the Horizon League wants to prove it too is worthy of being a multi-bid conference this year. Cleveland State is the obvious favorite, but Milwaukee could be a threat to the Vikings in the conference tournament. Don’t discount Butler either, since we all seemed to last year, and look where that got them. (Game to watch for- Robert Morris, December 8)

2. Creighton (MVC)- Picked by ESPN in the preseason to be the mid-major team to beat this year, the undefeated Bluejays are actually ranked as high as 17th in some polls now. They have wins over two teams from AQ leagues, with a third impressive win last year at San Diego State. Playing in the Valley has been no easy feat the last fear years with teams like Wichita State and Missouri State really playing well, but this may be the year Creighton rises to the top. I doubt they run the table in conference play, but a strong Valley record coupled with an impressive nonconference resume puts the Bluejays in position to make a deep tournament run in March. (Game to watch for- @Wichita St, December 31)

1. Harvard (Ivy)- Many of you might remember the Cornell team from two years ago that maybe went a little underappreciated. The Big Red got the last laugh though, as they joked their way into the Sweet Sixteen. The no-scholarship group’s impressive run might have gone even farther if had they not run into John Wall’s Kentucky team. Why is that important? Well, this year’s Harvard team is as good as that Ivy team, maybe even better. Poll voters finally relented and voted the Crimson into the Top 25 after holding a ranked Florida State team to 41 points. They beat a tough-minded Central Florida team, and have a big Litmus test this week at Connecticut. We’re going to find out how good this team really is. (Game to watch for- @UConn, December 8)



That’s all well and good for those teams, but now I have to address the elephant in the room. Since we’re talking mid-majors, where does JMU fit into all of this? It’s hard to tell for sure while Devon Moore is out, but suffice it to say that the 2011-2012 hard court Dukes are still a work in progress. When they remember to play good defense, they seem to look like a team that is completely capable of making a run at the CAA title. When they get hot, they can absolutely shoot lights out from the perimeter. On the other hand, sloppy play and impatience can really undermine this team, as the Dukes went 6 of 23 from behind the arc and turned the ball over 19 times in a twenty point home loss to Kent State Tuesday night. It doesn’t matter. I still believe in this team’s staying power. If the Dukes can find better penetration in the lane and clean up the transition game (JMU had only 10 points off 23 Kent State turnovers), the Dukes should be a legitimate conference threat for the title this year.

BCS or Bust?

There is no doubt in my mind that it’s the most wonderful time of the year, and it’s got nothing to do with the Xbox games I’ll be unwrapping in a couple of weeks.


The autumn confluence of baseball, football, basketball, and hockey is the sports equivalent of metaphysical poetry-- the end result is so epic that mental ecstasy is inevitable. Days like last Saturday are so full of sports that I have to preplan my sports-watching schedule in advance. Money can’t buy that type of happiness. But you know what doesn’t bring happiness? The single black spot on an otherwise blissful sports continuum- the BCS.

Time for a splash of cold water sports fans. JMU football just lost to North Dakota State. To put it bluntly, it sucks. There is no getting around that. But we had a nice campaign at the end of this year, and we even sent our seniors out with our first playoff berth since 2008. After the pang of defeat settles and we can actually look back on the year, there will be a neat since of accomplishment and finality. After an eight win season, we were eliminated by a solid, balanced football team.

Eliminated. It’s an ugly word for the loser, of course. It’s definitely not fun to be eliminated. However unpleasant it might be, everyone knows where a team stands when they’re eliminated. It’s a black and white mould, either you’re still in or you’re out. You know where that doesn’t exist? The BCS.

Rather than creating hard lines in the sand, the BCS system relies on the court of public opinion to create indistinguishable shades of grey. There are sometimes years like 2010 where no system is really necessary to determine who should play for the national championship. The millions of people who watched the BCS national championship last year all probably agreed Oregon and Auburn should be playing each other for the title. On the other hand, for every simple year, there’s a year of pure and utter unadulterated chaos. Take this year. There’s LSU, and then… who else? Even Houston is a one-loss team now. Alabama was lined up to go rematch the Tigers for the national championship, but what about Oklahoma State? What about Stanford? Boise State, even two-loss teams like Wisconsin and Oregon? How can anyone pick one opponent for LSU without making five or six teams feel like they got left out in the cold?

Maybe you’re that guy with all the answers though, and you think it falls together oh so neatly in ways we mere mortals don’t understand. Well I see your 2011 season, and raise you the entire 2007 season. Otherwise known to fans as “that really crazy year in college football,” the #1 and #2 teams in the country lost in the same weekend on three separate weekends. Two of those were the last two consecutive weeks of the regular season, culminating in a Saturday night game where Pittsburgh upset #2 WVU, knocked the Mountaineers out of the national title game, and knocked eventual champion LSU back into the title game. That season was such a mess, a playoff could have very easily resulted in any team winning. Think VCU all over again, you know, if VCU actually had a football team.

The other problem I have with the BCS format is, as mentioned before, it sometimes relies way too much on human polls. Over 65% of the BCS is determined by what voters in the Harris Poll and USA Today Poll think of teams. Virginia Tech was ranked as high as #3 in polls this year. After watching Clemson play them twice, is this the third best team in the country? But it’s not just the Virginia Tech’s of the world that cause ranking problems. Non-automatic qualifying teams like Houston and Boise State are clearly good teams on their own level, but how much of that talent transfers over when playing an SEC team? No one really has an answer for that. The only way to know for sure is to stick them in a bracket and let them have at it.

I’m not going to pretend a playoff has all the answers. Frankly, I like the fact that the current bowl system creates niches for teams that would probably never get a playoff bid. Just as there’s a Orange Bowl bid waiting for the ACC champion, there’s always a Belk Bowl bid for mid-level east coast teams. I’m not a big believer in the everyone-should-get-a-trophy, let’s-award-mediocrity cause, but at the same time, this format allows every team to compete for some sort of post season trip, not just the best of the best. And you know what? Don’t even get me started on the injury and academic risks to the pro prospects with an extended, multiple game playoff. This newspaper column can’t even begin to offer enough space for that conversation.

No system fixes all the problems or answers all the questions. But when everyone from Congress to the weird guy in the corner of your 8:00AM class has been screaming about how awful the BCS is for months, maybe it’s time we as a society accept the fact that BCS might not stand for the best case scenario. Maybe it’s time we change this thing.

 
 
***writer's note***
 
The above was written for the purposes of print journalism for Monday, December 5.  Because of my deadline, I had to write the article and turn it in before the actual BCS bowl schedule was announced and thus could not include my personal reaction to the BCS selections.  The selection of Michigan and Virginia Tech as at large teams confirms many of the things said about the BCS.  Is the purpose of the college football postseason to reward the best teams, or to  make money?  The BCS often walks this line like a very drunk man at a sobriety checkpoint.  Sometimes they even poll vault this line all together, like when a Sugar Bowl affiliate, when asked why Virginia Tech was chosen over other teams, chose to cite Virginia Tech's fan base as reasoning why they were selected.  I give credit to the Virginia Tech fans for being very dedicated to their team- one of the very, very few things wvu and vt fans have in common, and something I can't say about the fans of archrival pitt- but when the first reason named is 1. directly related to the making of money  and 2. completely unrelated to on the field play.. you have to wonder what's going on these guys' minds when they choose the teams to play in their bowl games.
 
Actually, scratch that.  You don't have to wonder.  They pretty much just spelled it out for us.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Pregame: Championship Week, Pt 2

Jumping right into Big 12 Play...


Big 12:


Kansas State can technically still snag a piece of the pie with an OkSt loss, but let's be honest.  As far as the BCS is concerned, this is a two-pony show.  That's probably a good thing too, because as good of a story as Bill Snyder's camp is this year, I'm not sure they're gonna hold up against the big boys.  They barely beat a top 30 Texas team, and allowed 50 points to both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

Anyway, the winner of Bedlam this weekend goes to a BCS bowl.  There's an outside chance that both teams go, assuming the Sooners win.  Otherwise, there's not a whole lot of discussion required here.  Both teams have great skill players on offense, and he quarterback dual will be quite a treat.  But I like Weeden and JB to defend home turf.  Even in the preseason, I wasn't buying into Oklahoma as the best team in the Big 12.  I picked OSU to win the conference outright, and I'm sticking by that preseason pick.

Prediction: Oklahoma makes it interesting, but the pokes go to a BCS game.  The real question is, how impressively do they have to win to jump Alabama in the polls?  Oklahoma State 41, Oklahoma 31


Pac-12:

Tonight is the Pac-12 championship game between fringe national title contender Oregon and 6-6 UCLA.  The Bruins sit in this title game not really out of personal merit, but because they are the least awfullest team in the Pac-12 south that is actually elligible to play in the title game.  That's right- they're so bad that I actually had to invent the word awfullest just to fully describe the situation.  It's that bad.


Prediction: Reggie Bush apologizes for tonight's inevitable blowout.  Oregon 55, UCLA 20


SEC:

So, here we are.  The elephant in the room.  Undefeated LSU takes on Boise State's most recent overrated victim, Georgia.  I've been on ESPN all week listening to how good Georgia has been playing recently, and how they're really gonna hang with LSU.  The Tigers will prevail of course, because no one wants to upset the established order, but at least it will be a good game...

Prediction: Well I'm sorry, but that's a load of crap.  Georgia is playing well?  Because they hung 62 on New Mexico State?  Color me unimpressed.  Barely scraping out wins against the likes of Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, and a very injured Tennessee team does not mean you've caught fire.  LSU is gonna do to Mark Reicht's team what Cam Newton did to South Carolina in last year's SEC title game.  Remember that one?  It wasn't pretty.  LSU 42, Georgia 13.


Still...  let's play the imagination game for a second.  What happens if Georgia wins?  There's a brain teaser for you.  In my mind, LSU would remain the #1 team (after all, they'd just be another one loss team with a better resume than everyone else), though in the fickle minds of poll voters, I'm not so sure they wouldn't lose a step to a couple of other top teams.  Georgia suddenly has to go to a BCS game, but you can't hold LSU back from an at large bid after dominating the whole regular season.  Does Alabama get left out in the cold?  It's pretty much a done deal that Houston is going to go to the BCS, but what do you do about Boise State, who has now beaten the SEC champion?

Scenarios abound.  I look forward to delving into them all with you later this weekend.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Pregame: Championship Week, Pt 1

Hey all and welcome to the weekend Pregame, championship week edition.  I'll be giving you my thoughts on each conference's championship week matchups, and we'll even predict some winners.  As always, feel free to tell me how incredibly amazing/stupid I am.



ACC:

Virginia Tech will play Clemson in Charlotte, North Carolina for the right to represent the ACC in a BCS game.  Last year, the representative Hokies got bold italicized underlined CREAMED by at large Andrew Luck and company, and the conference is probably looking for a measure of redemption.

For these teams, it's really been a story of going in opposite directions.  Clemson opened pretty hot, including this original romp of Virginia Tech as a part of their 8-0 start.  But in the last four games, Clemson has gone 1-3 (including a rather embarassing rout at the hands of North Carolina State).  Quarterback Tajh Boyd has thrown four touchdowns compared to seven interceptions, and his offensive line has allowed 11 sacks.  Not to great.

Meanwhile, Virginia Tech... well, at least they haven't lost since the aforementioned Clemson game.  Until last week's game in Charlottesville, I thought Tech looked incredibly unimpressive while running through their mindnumbingly easy schedule.  Still, they turned it on against UVA last week that somehow appears to be the third best team in the ACC.  It's hard to say for sure with a one-game sample size against your in-state rival, but the Hokies appear to be peaking at the right time.

Well, who cares.  In a championship game, I'm not sure that really matters after the first quarter.  Clemson is too good of a team AND matches up too well with Virginia Tech to get blown out by a team who is not outright athletically superior.  Tajh Boyd needs to get his act together, and the offense as a hole needs to play better.  If that happens, it'll be a good game. If not, then it'll be another early Christmas in Blacksburg.

Prediction: The media might be lined up to coddle Logan Thomas day in and day out, but I'm not.  This kid is not the real deal, and lacks the experience to lead his team down the stretch.  Virginia Tech will jump out to an early lead, but I expect Clemson to wake up some time late in the second quarter.  The second half will be all defense, but I expect Clemson to score just enough points to eek out a small victory.  Clemson 19, Virginia Tech 17


Big East:

If you haven't been following this conference race (and let's be honest, most of you probably haven't), it's an absolute mess.  It's one of the only times I've ever seen where no one actually controls their own destiny.  Here are the contenders and what's going on with them:


Louisville- Off this week, schedule is already completed with a conference record of 5-2.  They own a h2h win over West Virginia, but lost at Cincinatti.

Cincinatti- Bearcats were undefeated in conference play and in the driver seat until their bigtime quarterback Zach Collaros was injured.  Following that, Cincinatti lost to West Virginia and Rutgers, and now sit at 4-2.  A win on Saturday at home against cellar dweller UConn keeps them in contention for a share of the Big East title and a possible BCS berth.

West Virginia- West Virginia easily boasts the most explosive offense and probably the most athletic team, but as always, they've got a couple losses that kind of just make you go... huh?  WVU lost to Syracuse early on, and lost to Louisville at home in the beginning of November.  They play tonight (Thursday night) against South Florida, and are currently 4-2.



SO.  West Virginia beat Cincinatti, who beat Louisville, who beat West Virginia.  Except Louisville is already done, and the other two aren't.

Louisville needs Cincinatti to lose on Saturday.  Then they clinch the BCS berth with their head to head win over WVU.

Cincinatti needs to win on Saturday, but they also need a loss from WVU tonight.  Then they would clench the BCS berth because of their head to head win over Louisville.

West Virginia needs to win Thursday night, and they need Cincinatti to win Saturday too.  That keeps the 3-way tie with each team at 5-2.  Each team's h2h record against the other two teams would be 1-1, which means you go to the next tiebreaker: BCS ranking.  Right now, WVU is the only team ranked in the top 25 of the BCS rankings, and a Cincinatti win at home over UConn would not likely push them over WVU. 


West Virginia certainly needs the most things, but...

Prediction: You say Rube Goldberg, I say common sense.  Call me biased, but all those things happening is  really not that unrealistic.  South Florida has played WVU tough and even forced a little bit of a rivalry between the two schools, but the Bulls are pretty awful this year and have only managed one conference win.  They haven't even qualified for bowl eligibility yet.  Combine that with the liklihood of their backup quarterback Bobby Eveld starting with the poor quality of the USF secondary and I smell a rout.  WVU 45, USF 10.  Meanwhile, Cincinatti backup Munchie Legeaux is starting to figure things out, and though UConn has a surprisingly intimidating front 7, I don't think they will contain him or the outstanding runningback the Bearcats feature.  They're gonna get Pead on (love saying that).  Cincinatti 24, Connecticut 13

WVU finishes ranked 21st.  Cincinatti remains unranked.


Big 10

This might be the best game all weekend.  The Badgers get another shot to beat Michigan State after the Spartans' miraculous hail mary won the regular season meeting.  MSU will have a couple defensive players back that weren't available in the regular season game, including one bigtime pass rusher, which is important to note because of the escapability of Russell Wilson.  I love State's receiver Keshawn Martin too.  He's a big time playmaker that steps up in big game situations, and I think he's got great reporte with Kirk Cousins too.

All of that pales in comparison, though, to Montee Ball.  Ball has 1622 yards on the season and averages 6.5 yards a carry.  He's got 34 TOUCHDOWNS this season.  34.  Those numbers are pretty rediculous for a quarterback, but for a runningback?  Absolutely rediculous.  Even by his standards, he's been going off lately.  If Montee Ball continues to play in his groove, I can't possibly see how Michigan State can do anything to stop him.

Prediction:  Obviously I like Montee Ball and and Wisconsin, per mini-rant above.  Michigan State's defense is underrated, but somehow so is Montee Ball.  Despite the renewed blood on the defensive line, Wisconsin will dominate the line of scrimmage, pound the ball left and right, and go to their second straight BCS game to set up wonderful runningback and mobile quarterback duals.  Wisconsin 35, Michigan State 24.



Tomorrow, I cover the remaining three conferences. Saturday/Sunday I'll be covering at large bids. 

Friday, November 25, 2011

Rant Time: Save Some Brawl for Me

It’s one of my all-time favorite stories to tell people. On a cold and rainy November night in 2010, I took the long haul up to Morgantown, West Virginia. My extended family owns some incredible season tickets right behind the bench, and I was treated to my first basketball game in over ten years in the WVU Coliseum. The trip was far from ideal, crammed in the back of a friend’s sedan with four other guys and who knows how many bags. I was dropped off a mile downhill from the Coliseum and had to walk uphill in a horribly misty rain carrying my stuff for the weekend. But as I walked into that arena, I had forgotten all that. I sat soaking it all in. As the warm-up ended and the national anthem started, I tried to savor every esoteric flavor of the moment, but one in particular stands out above all the rest.



“…and the home of the brave!” Loud applause. Cheers everywhere. And then, from just a couple rows behind us:

“BEAT THE HELL OUTTA PITT!”

That’s all well and good, but this was the home opener. We were there for a fall game against Oakland College. Pitt is always played in February, usually on or within about three days of my birthday.

It didn’t matter. Beat the hell outta Pitt. As West Virginia, we must beat the hell outta Pitt. It is our primary purpose of life.

Rivalries are the crack that makes college football so addictive. More people probably watch the NFL, with its top notch talent, wild personalities, and Superbowl winners. But everyone loves a good college football rivalry. From proximity-induced rivalries like the Iron Bowl to the how-did-this-even-become-a-rivalry rivalries like USC-Notre Dame, Thanksgiving week might be the only week of the year where college football is watched much more fervently than the NFL. Yet a seemingly unavoidable conflict seems to be moving through college football, hellbent on tearing rivalries apart. I am talking, of course, about the juggernaut that is conference realignment.



To say I’m sick of conference realignment stories would be an understatement. It has dominated the headlines of college football this year in an incredibly boring, ball-hog fashion. Nobody can talk about anything else but the Big East constantly escalating suckiness, the Big 12 having who-knows-how-many teams, and the ACC rising from low level mediocrity to mediocre mediocrity with the addition of Pitt and Syracuse. Will Texas A&M make it in the SEC? Who knows? Who cares? At this point, why don’t we just wait until they move and find out?


But to ignore conference realignment and the disbanding of prominent national rivalries in this context would be utter negligence on my part. Just yesterday, the Texas Longhorns played what looks like it might be their last game against the Texas A&M Aggies. They have played since 1894, and it is the 3rd longest running rivalry in division 1A college football. Common sense would probably dictate that they keep the rivalry going, but combine a little anger over a TV network with conference realignment, and wham. You’re looking at the end of a historic rivalry.


It’s certainly a sad trend to witness as a passionate fan first, journalist second. But apply that trend to West Virginia, the team I’ve been groomed to love just about all my life, and it’s downright depressing.


West Virginia-Pitt might be a mere regional rivalry, but it’s one of the most heated rivalries I’ve ever seen. Think Alabama-Auburn without the national title implications (though there’s an exception for every rule- my apologies, fellow mountaineer fans), except maybe even meaner. I don’t expect there to be any ESPN documentaries about my beloved Backyard Brawl any time soon, but it doesn’t mean the players aren’t out for blood. Last time the Brawl came to Morgantown, there were so many state troopers on the field that you could have robbed every bank in West Virginia blind and nobody would have been any wiser until you were three states away.


But like any good rivalry, a team is really defined by their rival. Try thinking about Auburn’s 2010 national championship year without reminiscing over that miraculous Cam Newton-led comeback over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. West Virginia and Pitt are no different. Penn State hasn’t played Pitt in years, and you can hardly call the Marshall-WVU series a real rivalry when the Thundering Herd has actually never beaten WVU. With a shocking absence of true rivalries around, the Backyard Brawl means more now than it ever has.


Here is the part of the story where realignment rears its ugly head. The athletic directors of both schools want the rivalry to continue. The fans and players all want it. I’m sure ESPN and the NCAA still want it. So if literally everyone still wants the rivalry, why on Earth would it be discontinued? Ahh, but with Pitt going to the ACC and WVU to the Big 12, it might just not be possible. WVU would have to play nine games in conference alone, and Pitt would have to play a similar schedule in the ACC. That doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for a big rivalry, especially when the strength of schedule is already so high with teams like Oklahoma/Virginia Tech, Texas/Florida State, and Oklahoma State/Clemson.


Conference change or no conference change, though, WVU and Pitt hate each other. Even more so, the fans hate each other. Hop on any messenger board and the vitriol spewed at opposing fans is downright filthy- and that’s coming from a college guy with an admittedly colorful vocabulary (Colorful here translates to “must remember to censor self in front of parents at all times.”). But despite all the hate, it’s really an incredibly twisted love. It’s a real, down-to-the-core love… to hate. What is WVU without eat shit Pitt? What is Pitt without Morganhole? The rivalry does indeed define the schools on more than one occasion.


So yeah, I hate Pitt. I have as long as I can remember, and I probably always will. But if we stop playing Pitt, I will be incredibly, incredibly angry. Because I love Pitt. I love to hate them. Pitt is the creepy neighbor down the street that you love making fun of. You can’t stand their weirdness, but who would you rag on if they moved out of the neighborhood? I need that creepy neighbor in my life. I need Pitt.



Tonight is the 104th Backyard Brawl. Here’s to hoping that it isn’t the last time these two teams meet on the football field. Here’s to the continued tradition of rivalries in college football. Here’s to the 105th Backyard Brawl.





Oh yeah. And eat shit, Pitt.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Win, and You're In (Maybe)

At 6-4 and less than 24 hours away from their final regular season game, James Madison is probably the most interesting team in all of FCS football this year.  Here is everything you need to know about the defining game of JMU's 2011 football season:



How We Got Here: One year removed from a program-altering upset of Virginia Tech, JMU brought a veteran defense and a surprisingly capable offense back to the gridiron.  Big things were expected of the Dukes.  FBS foe North Carolina beat the Dukes in Chapel Hill, but back to back FBS upsets are literally  unheard of at the FCS level, so no surprises there.  Many fans I talked to were afraid that such a beatdown at the hands of even an average FBS teammeant that the Dukes were bound were mediocrity for the third straight year.  Whatever the negative perception was, the team clearly didn't feel the same way.  JMU eeked out a close win over possible playoff team Central Connecticut State at the inception of the new Bridgeforth Stadium. 

The offense really started to mesh after that.  JMU defeated a very good, playoff-bound Liberty team in Lynchburg.  After the Liberty football team realized they were about to break curfew, they retreated indoors, and the Dukes headed Williamsburg and picked up their first conference win against #6 William and Mary. 

But all good things must come to an end.  Justin Thorpe was promptly suspended for five games, and via federal family protection laws, we were not offically told why.  Pretty much everyone understands that he failed a drug test, sources telling me because of nothing other than weed.  Backup linebacker Chase Williams was also suspended, but let's face it, when the quarterback and anyone else on the team is indefinitely suspended, the quarterback will be the main one in the spotlight.

Freshman quarterback Jace Edwards takes the snaps at this point in time.  With Family Weekend's annual rivalry against the Spiders looming, many wondered if JMU would fall to the creepy crawlers to the third straight year.  Not the case.  In his JMU debut, Edwards managed a rushing romp of epic proportions as Richmond was promptly squashed.


If you're squeamish, look away.  This next part gets nasty.


JMU loses to Maine in overtime on a gadget 2-pt conversion play.  Maine's play rises to #2 on Sportscenter's Top Plays.  Dae'Quan Scott and Jace Edwards both suffer separated shoulders.  JMU bounces back to thrash cellar dweller Villanova, but JMU loses the inaugural ODU game to second half injuries after somewhat controlling the first half.  Hope floats with the possibility of a would-be impressive road victory at New Hampshire, but injuries and the far travel distance prove too much for JMU, and lose their third in a four game stretch.

That is, of course, five games.  Justin Thorpe returns and leads a romp over Rhode Island on Senior Day in Bridgeforth.  And now here we sit with the Dukes (6-4, 4-3). 


On the Precipice of Glory:  JMU travels to UMass Saturday, an average team who has had a tough go of it this year and is inelligible to make the postseason anyway.  They have very little to play for.  JMU, on the other hand, has everything to play for.  By rule, a team must win seven games to qualify for the postseason in FCS football.  This is as must-win as must-win gets.  Should JMU beat UMass, the selection committee will have an admittedly hard decision- JMU beat two solid out of conference opponents, and they followed those wins up by playing a season in what is probably the toughest division in FCS football (with apologies to the Big South.  The committee will also need to consider the fact that JMU is appealing for more than just their football program- the Dukes are one of the most spirited and supported teams out there, and Bridgeforth Stadium in its entirety is second to no other stadium on the FCS level.  The committee does consider these things when deciding not only who makes the playoffs, but where the home games are played.

On the Verge of Defeat: The return of Justin Thorpe really fired some people up last week, and we played great against Rhode Island.  But it doesn't change the fact that we are really, really injured.  The offensive line is a mess at this point, and it won't get any better soon.  It's not unreasonable to think we could travel all the way up to the northeast tip of the country and lose another game up there.  That would definitively end our season at 6-5 for the third straight year, and the coaching carousel would begin.  But even if we stand at 7-4 after the UMass game, a playoff berth is not guarenteed.  While its true that JMU has played admirably in the face of hardship and played some tough opponents, the bottom line is that JMU's only CAA wins have come from teams under .500 in conference play.  That is a pretty damning statistic, and a win at UMass (5-5, 3-4) won't change that either.  They might prefer a Delaware team that has been a little inconsistent, but has beaten both ODU and conference leader Towson.  Either way, it could be bad.  Should I prefer the quick death of a UMass loss, or the slow, drawn out pain of a no bid from the FCS playoff committee?  Neither one sounds incredibly appealing.


The Verdict: An inspired JMU squad goes up to Massachusetts and sends a message to the committee.  The game is close early on as JMU leads by only 6 at halftime, but the Dukes turn it up in the second half as they have in most of their wins this year.  Good guys win 27-13.  The playoff committee wants to allow JMU in, but they soon realize too much of the JMU appeal comes from Bridgeforth Stadium.  After a tight vote, JMU is awarded a first-round home rematch against Liberty, with App State looming around the corner for the winner.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Keeping up with the Coastalashians

The Atlantic division of the ACC can be summed up pretty succintly:

Clemson.

Aside from an unsuccessful bout with the dangerous Georgia Tech, Clemson has really dominated most of its ACC competition.  Frankly, its not very interesting to talk about.  With Florida State dropping two games in conference play (and I expect a third is on the way, but more on that later), the Seminoles gift wrapped the inside track to the conference title game and gave it to Clemson in a rather bottom-heavy division:

+Maryland- It was cute when people thought Danny O'Brien was the best quarterback in the ACC in the preseason.  Now though... it's just gotten kind of sad.

+NC State- After 11 weeks, they're 5-5.  Their last two games are against Maryland and Clemson.  After a bowl win over West Virginia last year, it's pretty feasible that the wolfpack doesn't even qualify for a bowl one year later.  Is this what happens when Russell Wilson leaves your program for a state whose biggest upside is belt-centric touchdown dances and lots of cheese?

+Boston College- Hasn't been relevant since Matt Ryan.

+Wake Forest- Wait, they have a football program?  All kidding aside, Wake is probably the best of these four... but it's not saying much.  The DD's actually don't own an out of conference win against an FBS school on any level.  So color me unimpressed.


This is the division that Clemson has run through.  Not a lot of excitement here, especially when you consider that Clemson has already clinched the title berth.  So instead, today we are going to look at the Coastal division of the ACC- a race that is not quite as decided.


Virginia Tech- The hokies being in the title hunt is nothing new.  So I will spare you an elaborate team introduction and point out that, against bowl-qualified competition (ie teams that have qualified for a postseason berth by winning six games), Virginia Tech is 1-1.  This is a telling statistic in a couple of ways.  First of all prior to four days ago, VT was 0-1; they got their first quality win on the road against Georgia Tech last Thursday.  The loss came in early October at home against Clemson.  That's really all I can say that matters about Tech, all their other games have come against ACC pretenders, conference USA schools, or FCS teams.  You really just have to go with a gut feeling on Tech, and my gut tells me that they are physically gifted but not disciplined or schematically unique enough to keep up with top-tier talent.  Most imporantly, my intuition SCREAMS that, at #8 in the BCS, Tech is wayyyyyy way way way overrated.  But before we start talking about BCS games, we need to talk about winning the ACC championship.  And for Tech to get there, they have to beat...


Virginia- Former U of R coach Mike London hasnt turned them into a powerhouse quite yet, but the Cavaliers are well over .500 and probably on their way to a bowl game.  Before the postseason though, UVA will face Virginia Tech in a monster regular season finale in Charlottesville that has huge implications every which way.  To start with, if UVA can keep pace with Virginia Tech for one more week, UVA could win the Coastal division on the head to head tiebreaker with a win over Virginia Tech two weeks from now.  UVA hasn't beaten Virginia Tech in who knows how long (pretty sure it's over 10 years now) but if you recall some of my preseason predictions from this year, I did think that UVA and Virginia Tech would have close records by the end of the year.  Now, here comes the second half of that prediction:  The Cavaliers will beat Virginia Tech during rivalry week and play in the ACC championship game.  They've got to win at Florida State to have a shot at stealing the bid from Tech (unless the hokies drop their home game to UNC this Thursday, which is unlikely).  But the Cavs are really hitting their stride and playing with some tenaciousness for the first time in about five years.  I think they upset both ranked programs and take their spot in the sun.  UVA fans will rub it in the faces of Tech fans; Tech fans will ask UVA fans how many years it's been since the Cavs have been relevant.  In the end, isn't the return of a viable college football rivalry to Virginia what really matters?


Check out my Big East breakdown right here tomorrow.  Bring your calculators and your bibs.  There's gonna be math... and it's gonna be messy.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Mini-Series Coming This Week

Lots of big things happening next weekend.  Just so everyone can keep up with all the information and title races out there, I'll be doing a mini-series this week on the CAA, Big East, and ACC title races.  All three are absolutely fascinating, and when you see  the competitions and possible winners that are out there right now, I think you'll all be pretty shocked. 

Can't way to see you all this week in between frequent bursts of THIS!!!

Rating the Hangovers

They say that November is the month where championships are won.  I disagree- I think November is the month where championships are lost.  Lots of BCS and conference championship implications in week 11.  Lots of dreams foiled here, and I'll be counting them all down right here.


7. South Carolina- Sure, they won (barely) over a Florida program that is akin to the kids throwing the party while their parents are out, and haven't realized how trashed their house has gotten.  The 5 point home win has to feel good... I guess.  But now that South Carolina has completed their SEC schedule 1/2 a game behind Georgia, they are left hoping that Georgia loses their SEC finale next weekend so that they can represent the SEC East in the championship game.  The final punchline?  Even if South Carolina gets back to the championship game, they really have no chance at all against LSU, especially without Garcia and Lattimore.

6. Stanford- Probable #1 draft pick Andrew Luck saw the Cardinal's long winning streak get doused by Oregon... again.  Stanford sat at #4 and was in line to get to the national championship in the event that Oklahoma State lost, but this loss all but eliminates them from that conversation.  As if getting booted from title contention wasn't enough, they lost to the Ducks, that same team that has owned them the last three games.

5. Texas A&M- Oh how they mighty have fallen.  The Aggies were my preseason sleeper pick to win the Big 12, and... well, I just flat out wrong.  A&M certainly has the talent, but they just don't execute OR hold leads.  After two early losses where they embarassingly releashed two gigantic leads to Oklahoma State and Arkansas.  Recently, Texas A&M lost in overtime to Missouri AND got blown out by the Sooners.  In this latest contest of whats-a-new-way-we-can-embarass-ourselves, A&M lost to overrated kansas state in four overtimes.  They certainly be blamed for a lot of shortcomings, but on some level you've got to feel bad for this team that just keeps finding ways to lose.

4. Texas-The longhorns scored five points.  That could be a punchline.

3. Penn State- Hell?  No, that's just been happy valley, pennsylvania the last few weeks.  State college has been absolutely put through the ringer through a combination of the firing of a legend, the scandal of a generation, and a media blitz that could rival an apocalypse.  After the dust settled and penn state actually needed to, you know, play a football game... things didn't go so hot.  PSU got behind early and made a valiant comeback... but it wasn't enough.  You just have to feel bad for the Nits, even if they were hugely overrated, you just kind of hoped they pull out a win after such a nightmare of a week.

2. Boise State- Raise your hand if you've heard this one before.  Kellen Moore and Boise State cruise through the first couple months of their season, only to lose in November to a conference rival on a missed field goal at the end of the game that keeps them out of fringe National title contention.  Wow, that was oddly specific wasn't it?  Yet it's now happened twice in a row.  Big picture, the Broncos week 11 home loss to TCU is just freakishly similar to last season's loss at Nevada.  Sure, there are some key differences like the kicker's pedigree, but the bottom line is we won't have to hear about how Boise State belongs in the national title game anymore... and frankly, I am really, REALLY happy about that.  Still, awful hangover for the boys in blue.

1. Cincinatti- It's true, I have Cincinatti here as the worst hangover despite the fact that they are actually in first place in the Big East.  I'm not saying grabbing your first loss at home on a blocked field goal as time expires is all rose petals or anything.  That's gotta leave you smarting a bit.  But the real pain comes here with the additional loss of senior bearcat quarterback Zach Collaros.  Backup quarterback Munchie Legaux seemed to share the raw running power that Collaros also had, but he's far from a polished signal caller when it comes to passing.  Questionable decision making and footwork may not be enough to will Cincinatti through their final three games, but the team won't have much of a choice- Collaros is out for the season with a broken ankle.  UC still holds a half game lead in the Big East, but a whopping five teams are within that very short striking distance.  I would not be surprised at all if a team that is not Cincinatti wins the Big East.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

MSU-Wisky Finish Inspires Fond Memories

Please, fellow sports fans, tell me that you saw the Michigan State-Wisconsin game. Or at least the finish. If you didn’t, shame on you. You missed one of the greatest endings I have ever personally seen in my short seven year career of watching/being incredibly obsessed with college football. The Spartans total defensive effort isn’t going to blow anyone away- they allowed 443 total yards of offense to the Badgers- but big plays on defense really propelled MSU forward. Led by a safety, two interceptions, and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, Michigan State led for a majority of the game. No. 6 Wisconsin had something to say about that. They tied the game with 1:26 left, only to witness an unthinkable ending. With just seconds to go and right outside of field goal range, State quarterback Kirk Cousins quite literally heaved up a prayer from midfield. The ball was swatted around and, by some sort of divine miracle, was caught outside of the end zone by unheralded receiver Keith Nichol, his first catch of the night. He pushed to break the plane of the goal line, but was called just short. The game was destined for overtime… that is, until replay officials overturned the call with video evidence that unquestionably proved that the Hail Mary was indeed a touchdown. What a finish.




So that got me thinking… how does this remarkable game compare with some of the greatest finishes of my football-watching lifetime (circa 2004-present). This is certainly not a comprehensive list of all great finishes in the last few years- that would take much more room than this simple blog (writer’s note: or newspaper column) has available. I won’t be so presumptuous as to impose my own personal preferences on you readers, but I think many of you might hazard a guess at which of the following incredible finishes tops my all time favorite endings list:



The “Bush Push” (October 15, 2005)- Notre Dame thought they had won. Fans had already come on to the field to celebrate a huge Irish upset of USC. But after seven seconds were placed back on the clock and the fans had been chased off the field for one final play, USC quarterback Matt Leinart tried to take the ball in to the end zone himself. Just when you thought he was going to be dragged down short of the goal line, he got a bit of an unorthodox push from Heisman winner Reggie Bush. Touchdown Southern Cal. The Trojans win it 34-31; the Irish remain in an ever-humbling irrelevance.



Boise State’s Undefeated Season (January 1, 2007)- Back before Boise was America’s most frequently talked about Cinderella story, they were on the cusp of a rare undefeated season. The Broncos were on the wrong side of a close game against Oklahoma in the 2007 edition of the Fiesta Bowl, but a 50-yard hook and ladder play as time expired pushed the game to overtime. You would think that kind of magic might have used up all of the positive karma Boise had left in the tank, but a statue of liberty 2-pt conversion in overtime won the boys in blue their first BCS bowl game.


The “Miracle in Michigan” (September 1, 2007)- For the amount of FBS teams that buy wins from FCS schools, there aren’t a whole lot of upsets. Most would agree that the occasional upset is quite rare, but an FCS school beating a top ranked team? That’s just unheard of. Enter the two-time defending national champions, the 2007 rendition of the Appalachian State Mountaineers. They played a back and forth game with then-ranked #5 Michigan and found themselves up 34-32 with seconds to go. Michigan managed to put together one last drive that culminated with a go-ahead field goal attempt at the end of the game, only to have it blocked by the App State special teams. App State became the first FCS team to beat a ranked FBS opponent. (Anyone know who the second team was? Go ask a friend at Virginia Tech.)



Les’ Lucky Number 13 (October 1, 2010?)- Tennessee was on the brink of upsetting LSU 13-10 in Baton Rouge. With less than 30 seconds left in the game, all LSU head coach Les Miles had to do was somehow get the ball into the end zone. Atrocious clock management brought the game clock all the way down under ten seconds with LSU players scrambling around to find out the play call and get into position. Chaos ensued all the way through the play, too, as the quarterback muffed the snap and was sacked all the way out of the red zone. The clock struck 0. “FINAL: Tennessee 13, LSU 10” showed on the television. The game was, for all intents and purposes, concluded. That is, of course, until the referees ran onto the field, hauled everyone out of the tunnels to the locker room, and announced that Tennessee had too many men on the field during their last play. Video inspection by the commentators revealed Tennessee had not eleven, not twelve, but thirteen men on the field! LSU got one final play call, and the punched it in for the win. Final score- LSU 16, Tennessee 13.



Good Ole Scottie (October 1, 2008)- He was as much of a legend as a special teams player can be. JMU’s very own Devin Hester. Entire chants sang his name. He is Scottie McGee, and as the then-ranked #1 team in the land James Madison Dukes went on the road to play archrival #5 Richmond, a special sort of feeling was in the air. Most of the current student population, including myself, was still in high school at the time, but being a Richmond native, we still got the game on Comcast Sportsnet. It was one of those games you just happen to sit down and watch for no reason at all, but you end up witnessing something magical. The game was physical, close, and compelling- just as a rivalry game should be. As Richmond punted to the already-infamous McGee with a tie game and hardly any time left at all, Scottie ran up the sideline. He picked up a block, made one or two guys miss, and was just gone. He ran it in for the touchdown with just one second left on the clock, and the JMU special teams came up with the stop on the ensuing kickoff. Scottie may have been a fan favorite even earlier, but this was the game that transubstantiated him into the stuff of legend.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Rant Time: In Tebow I Refuse to Trust

This was neither the first thing that I wanted to write about nor the last.  To be honest, I feel like I go on about how not amazing Tebow is a lot to by friends and readers, and in my mind, it's with good reason.  But I'm getting ahead of myself.  Let's start at the beginning.


Week 7 of the NFL?  The 1-win Broncoes are coming off a bye and traveling to winless Miami.  Enter Tebow, making what we presume is his first of several starts on the year.  I give some serious credit to the Denver coaching staff- if this was a drawn up conditional scenario (ie- if we are 1-4 going into the bye, let's get Tebow ready and give him a shot at Miami if they end up sucking like they have recently), then it was a brilliant strategy.  In fact, it's probably the smartest thing they've done since firing Josh McDaniels.  Anyway, to the game.

The following is an appropriately relevant excerpt from Bill Simmon's amazing website Grantland.  I did not write this, but it very succintly describes my feelings, almost word for word.  I say again.  I did not write the following excerpt.  110% of credit should be given to Bill Barnwell.  You know, the guy that wrote this? Because it wasn't me:




"Far be it [for me] to ruin an admittedly great story, but let's be real about the Tim Tebow plaudits being thrown around after the Broncos' 18-15 comeback over the Dolphins on Sunday. Tebow certainly deserves some of the credit, but not the massive outpouring of praise that is being thrown his way.


The Win Probability chart at advancednflstats.com for this game tells the true story of what happened. When Tebow took over on his own 20-yard line down 15 points with 5:23 left, both Broncos and Dolphins fans were leaving the stadium in Miami, and they weren't wrong to do so. The Broncos' chances of winning were estimated to be around 1 percent. Tebow proceeded to lead his most impressive drive of the day, going 80 yards in eight plays, throwing a five-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas.

For all that work, the Broncos' chances of winning had improved all the way to … 2 percent. Teams with an eight-point lead that are about to receive the kickoff simply don't lose very frequently; it takes an expected onside kick to pick it up, and teams recover expected onside kicks only about 20 percent of the time. When the Broncos were able to recover the kick, their win expectancy improved to 12 percent; the onside kick was six times more valuable than Tebow's drive. If that figure seems low, consider that the Broncos still needed to drive 50 yards, score, pick up a two-point conversion, and then win in overtime. They had momentum in their favor, but so have plenty of other teams in this scenario who haven't been able to pick up the W.

Tebow then proceeded to take advantage of a short field. Starting on his own 44-yard line, Tebow drove the team 56 yards in 10 plays, highlighted by a gorgeous 28-yard throw to (and equally impressive catch from) Daniel Fells. After that, Denver converted the two-pointer on a Tebow run1 and the Broncos' win expectancy was pushed all the way up to 46 percent. They'd made an incredible comeback, but they were still underdogs heading into overtime.

After they won the overtime coin toss and traded possessions with the Broncos, the Dolphins remained favorites. When Daniel Thomas converted a second-and-2 to give the Dolphins a new set of downs on their own 43-yard line, the Dolphins only needed to travel about 25 more yards to pick up a game-winning field goal. They win an estimated 67 percent of the time in that situation.

That, of course, led to the final dramatic swing. Broncos linebacker D.J. Williams sacked Matt Moore on the ensuing play, producing a single-play swing that was bigger than any of Tebow's drives. The Broncos went from a win expectancy of 33 percent to 78 percent by recovering the fumble, and while they proceeded to gain only two yards on the subsequent drive, they converted another short field into points to win the game.

On Sunday, Tim Tebow was given a total of 15 possessions. Four of them started with 56 yards or less to go for an offensive touchdown. Not coincidentally, of the four, three were his final three drives, and he produced a total of 11 points on those drives. His other 11 drives all started deep in his own territory, with six of them beginning on the 20-yard line and only one beyond the 25 (a drive that started on the Miami 41 that resulted in a missed field goal). Ten of those drives resulted in eight punts, a missed field goal, and a fumble. They gained, on average, less than 12 yards.

This isn't a one-week trend, either. When he came in against the Chargers last Sunday, Tebow started with three consecutive drives inside his own 31-yard line. The Broncos punted on all three drives. On the ensuing two possessions, though, Tebow started from his own 49-yard line and the San Diego 41-yard line. With the short fields, he proceeded to score two touchdowns. It can't be much simpler.

A lot of what we're crediting to Tim Tebow is actually the impact of things that are totally out of his control, a combination of field position, defensive turnovers, and a miracle on special teams. He deserves some of the plaudits that have come his way over the past two Sundays. Just not all of them."




Tebow should be commended for pulling his team out of a rut and winning the game, but let's not forget why they were in a shutout, 15-0 hole with 6 minutes to go to begin with.  It's because Tebow played like absolute garbage for the first 54 minutes.  In my mind, no amount of comeback leading can mask that kind of damning information.  I mean, come one, you got shut out for the first 55 minutes by a defense that let the patriots rack up 600 yards of offense when they weren't even loose yet in week 1!


Now, to give some credit where credit is due.  I don't think Tebow is a great NFL quarterback by any means.  But the guy is a winner.  Even when he loses, he's a winner.  And where he excels is in a hurry up formation in the fourth quarter when trying to lead a comeback.  Thanks to my friends over at ESPN Stats&Info, I can tell you that Tebow has now led two 13+ point comebacks in the fourth quarter.  That's all in four starts with the Broncoes, yet it's the same amount of comebacks some little guy named John Elway pulled off in 231 starts.  Half-full people will love the Elway comparison and take it at face value.  Half-empty glasses will probably realize that Elway's teams were loaded with talent, and they never needed to come back from double digit deficits in the fourth quarter because they probably weren't losing, and they definitely weren't losing by that much.  Where do I stand?  It's probably somewhere in the middle, but I wanna give Tebow the benefit of the doubt here.  You can credit a prevent defense too, but the hurry up no huddle is what Tebow can excel at.  It's the scheme that compliments him best.  Sue me for using this example, but if you put Pat White in a spread option offense, he's going to (and did) look like Zeus; if you put him in an NFL offense, he's going to (and, unfortunately, did) look like Ryan Leaf. 

All in all, can we just calm down with handing him the keys to the city of Denver?  He's not John Elway yet, but he's giving people some hope.  And if you're team is 1-4, and your best player is you're rookie draft pick, isn't hope all you can really ask for?  We can agree to disagree I suppose.


One thing we should all agree on?  Tony Sporano should probably fire his defensive coordinator.  Really, Tony?  No linebacker is spying on Tim Tebow up the middle on a 2pt conversion to tie the game and send it to overtime?

That, my friends, is a fail.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

The Sixth Man: #NBARank Project

ESPN has been counting down who is, in their opinion, the very best of the NBA.  Here lies the basis for this edition of the Blog's Sixth Man recurring segment.



1.  Lebron James at #1.  Too high, too low, or just right?

I'm going Goldielocks on this one.  Look, LBJ might be the most controversial human being to ever play professional sports.  But it doesn't mean he isn't the absolute best guy around, the number one guy you'd want to pick up if you were building a team.  The guy is a freak- so much so that you can't even really do a sports science take on him because EVERYTHING about him defies scientific explanation (really? THAT is a small forward? yeah, okay.)  Even with his strange inability to set his alarm clock for playoff games that really matter, he's still consistently the best player in the NBA on both sides of the ball.  He's an offensive juggernaut, a defensive stalwart, and just forget about it on fast breaks.  Don't tell me he doesn't have any rings.  Frankly, I don't think that matters when you're talking about better players- only better player legacies

And besides, who could you POSSIBLY put above him?


2. Dwight Howard at #2.  Too high, too low, or just right?

Too high.  Dwight Howard is an amazing defender, far and away the best center in the league.  His physical tools alone place him in the top ten players.  But what he lacks in his offensive game really hurts him sometimes.  When you're alleged to be the second best player in the land, you can't be woefully one dimensional at times.  Great player to build a franchise around, but the second best player.


3. Dwayne Wade at #3.  Too high, too low, or just right?

I think that's right.  Wade is an amazing player, but I've always admired his intangibles even more than his skills.  Something about his personality just draws me as a fan in, so imagine what he's gotta do to the guys in the locker room that are playing on the same court as him.  His leadership, his shooting, and his abillity to have an innate knowledge of just when he needs to take over a game put in him squarely in the top 5.  Plus he just feels like a 3.


4. Chris Paul at #4.  Too high, too low, or just right?

You know, I'm kind of going against the grain on this one, but I kind of like CP3 in this spot.  Everyone else seemed to knock him down to more of a 6-8 kind of guy, but I think he deserves some wiggle room because of the knee.  After all, aren't we measuring him as a player and not as a mortal?   When he isn't physically limited, Chris Paul's play is nothing short of inspired.  He can be Steve Nash/Rajon Rondo and rack up more assists than I have earned years of life on Earth, then turn around the next game and score 30 points.  Look at the playoff series against the Lakers.  New Orleans lost, but that's a prime example of CP3 in top form.  And it was just downright scary.


5. Dirk Nowitzki at #5.  Too high, too low, or just right?

Hey, ESPN.  I realize TNT had the rights to most of the playoffs, so I gotta ask... did you guys even bother watching the NBA playoffs?  News flash, Dirk is kind of good.  Like... really good.  And now he even has a ring to go with his, well, goodness.

Look, this is too low.  I would have Dirk at number #2.  How many dudes that big can shoot the three ball like he can?  The answer to that riddle is nobody, besides Dirk Nowitzski.  He's one of the most balanced players in the NBA, but it's more than that.  He's a hard worker, the kind of guy that players with quiet fire. He toiled away on the Mavs for years to win a championship.  He didn't ask to be traded.  He didn't ask for other superstars to be mashed and grafted onto his half of the hardcourt.  He's an old-fashioned, old-world player who knows what it takes to win and has all the right moves to get it done.  It's a shame he doesn't have more rings.

And this ranking has nothing to do with the fact that he just won the NBA title.  Dirk was one of the first players I ever knew about when I was just finding things out about the NBA.  I played my first year of fantasy basketball with some governors school friends in ninth grade.  I drafted Dirk because I thought his last name was cool.  He rewarded me by constantly putting up numbers that were astronomical, though I really had no idea that they were at the time.  He's really, really, really good.  If it's even possible, he's actually a little undervalued, despite being head and shoulders above the rest of the team that just won the NBA finals.  And that's why a ranking of fifth best is kind of rediculous. 



Got a response?  @ckiddysports, hash tag NBARank.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

Rant Time: Maine Plays FBS Football Against JMU

If you didn’t know any better, you might have thought JMU lost to a team from the Football Bowl Subdivision on Saturday. No, Maine isn’t playing in the ACC or anything, and I’m not implying that their athletes are of the highest caliber either. I’m talking about schemes.

The Football Championship Subdivision (the level of competition that JMU, Maine, and others play on) can be described with one word- traditional. I hear people complaining all the time about Mickey Matthews’ ultraconservative style of play calling- that run-first, run-second, probably-run-third type of attack that makes a lot of fans question whether our quarterback is capable of doing anything other than handing the ball off. But if you’ve ever watched FCS football, you know it’s not just our school that keeps the fans wondering. JMU’s coaching staff may have perfected the art of one dimensional play calling at times, but it’s not like we’re doing things any different than most of the other teams out there in FCSland.

FBS, however, is very different. Unlike JMU’s level, the top teams in the country love to follow whatever offensive scheme is popular or trendy at the time. The preferred method of moving the football these days? Spread offenses. Spread options like Oregon and Auburn seek spread the field and run the ball behind a lightning fast ground attack. Both teams have landed in the national spotlight recently by putting up huge offensive numbers in just about every category, with Auburn winning the national championship last season. Meanwhile, Air Raid Spreads put up even more gaudy numbers. Teams like Oklahoma State and West Virginia regularly throw for 400 yards with a healthy mix of deep passes and little screens to the outside.

So what in the world does any of that have to do with us here at JMU? On Saturday, we saw the effects of a whole new trickle-down theory. JMU likes to pass so that we can run the ball; many big time FBS teams like to run so that they can pass the ball. Maine’s offensive strategy definitely fell into the latter of those two categories. From the second quarter on, Maine’s quarterback threw little four and five yard passes to the outside at will, and our defense wouldn’t really do anything to stop it. Only after passing it four or five times in a row, Maine would then break off big runs up the middle for seven and eight yards at a time- way too much given the caliber of our run defense. Then they would go back to short passes on the outside.

Nothing explains Maine’s FBS-style quite like that last two point conversion play in overtime though. That formation- the “Swinging Gate” scheme- is utilized in special short yardage plays by Oregon, USC, and other successful teams. The fact that Maine used it on what would have been the last play of the game whether they scored and won or failed to score and lost means that they were actively creating plays based on successful FBS schemes for this game. Maine is out to win this year. Conservatism be damned, as long as there’s a W next to your team’s name on the score sheet.

JMU has to be more flexible defensively. Our offense looks fine, even with a freshman quarterback calling the plays, but we can’t be so caught up with defending “traditional” FCS schemes that we can’t defend anything else. Sometimes, we just need to throw tradition out the window and do what makes sense.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Hangovers are Overrated

We're finally getting into some conference play and exposing some teams that might have been a little overrated.  In this week's Hangover, I wanna reflect on the weekend, and maybe even get some I told you so's in.


Overrated Watchlist:


The Team: Oklahoma

Their Current Ranking: 3
What they should be Ranked: 14


The Evidence:  Let's put it this way- Oklahoma's best win is on the road at the team currently in last place in the ACC.  Yeah, I'm talking about Florida State, and until they aren't trailing Wake Forest in the ACC standings, I don't wanna hear about what a good win it was for the Sooners.  Other wins include incredibly mediocre Missouri, Tulsa, and Ball State.  There's a reason Oklahoma has dropped in the standings behind SEC teams.  It's because other teams are proving they belong, and the Sooners aren't doing anything.

Mark your Calendars: Even though the Big 12 slate starts this weekend, Oklahoma probably won't see much of a challenge until November.  The Red River Rivalry against equally overrated Texas is this Saturday and is followed by Kansas, Texas Tech, and Kansas State.

Side note: KSU just squeezed out a 1 point home win over Baylor, the only team in America that has yet to realize they must actually field a defense.  The media was quick to jump to the massive conclusion that the wildcats are good, and threw them into the top 20 ranked teams.  Are you seeing a pattern here with Big 12 teams and being overrated?

Anyway, Oklahoma hosts Texas A&M on November 5 and will travel to Baylor on November 19.  Their finale is in Stillwater against Oklahoma State.  The Sooners will faulter down the stretch as they play their best competition, dropping 2 of the 3 games I just mentioned. 


The Team: Virginia Tech

Their Current Ranking:21
What they should be Ranked: 24


The Evidence: I admit it, this is less of a heads up and more of an I TOLD YOU SO.  Whoops, was that accidentally in bold?  My bad.

Virginia Tech allowed 10 ppg through the first 4 weeks, notching one of the best scoring defense marks in the country.  Congrats- that was against two C-USA teams and two FCS squads.  Clemson game to town and handed VT a twenty point loss, the second largest negative scoring differential for the castrated turkies in the last 30 years.  I'm looking at the AP Poll trying to be fair, but honestly, the only teams in this poll that I think Tech is better than are the likes of Kansas State and Baylor.

Tech averages fewer than 200 yards passing for game.  I know that comes with the territory of having a first year starter at quarterback, but regardless of the reasoning, that tends to make them a little too one dimensional on offense.  I don't care if David Wilson runs a 2.9 in the 40, if all you can do is run, defenders are just going to crowd the box all day long.  Tech needs to work on open field tackling and balancing out their offense if they want to get back into the ACC title race.

Mark your Calendars: In the preseason, I recall predicting Tech would cruise through ACC play only to get smashed in the title game by Florida State.  It's clear to me now that Tech won't even do that.  The Georgia Tech game is a loss, just go ahead and book that now.  I also believe there will be a surprise loss in there- look at Miami, Wake Forest, or UVA to spring an upset.


VT fans may now proceed to tell me how rediculous I am, much like they did when I said Clemson would own them at home...


The Team: Ohio State
Their Current Ranking: Unranked
What they should be Ranked: Really, Really unranked

The Evidence: Oh how the mighty have fallen. The Buckeyes just completed their second week out of the top 25, a place they haven't dwelled since 2004. After losing to a massively underachieving Miami squad in week 3, Ohio State bounced back with a 20 point trouncing of Pac-12 newcomer Colorado, only to be beaten at home by Michigan State now. Ohio State's only other wins came at the likes of Toledo (barely) and Akron (who cares?). They are barely averaging 20 points a game against that competition, and are ranked in the bottom ten in all of FBS when it comes to passing yards.

Mark your Calendars: The hits are gonna keep coming. The Buckeyes will almost certainly drop their next three games- @Nebraska, @Illinois, and Wisconsin. That would drop THE Ohio State university (note the sarcastic capitalization, please) to 3-5. Sure, they have a bye week to prepare for Wisconsin. Is that gonna help them? Eh. Probably not. I won't completely write them off, as Ohio State has a physical enough d-line to stay in the game. But I still think Wisconsin's smash mouth run game is too much and they Badgers stroll out of Columbus with a win. The buckeyes limp to a 6-6 finish.


The Team: Michigan

Their Current Ranking: 12
What they should be Ranked: 22

The Evidence:  Here are the four public opinion categories I have managed to hear so far about Michigan's football team this year:

1. THE SANE (roughly 25%)-  Michigan is undefeated, but they don't really have any really great, quality wins.  I'll keep an eye on them going forward, but I really would like to see more out of them before I buy i into the hype.

2. THE BANDWAGON/FANBOYS (roughly 60%)- Michigan is back! Denard Robinson is just as great a passer as he is a runner!  They should have never switched away from a pro style offense, their offense is clicking on all cylinders!  Michigan will probably win the Big 10 at this rate!

3. THE REDICULOUS (roughly 13%)- The Michigan Defense is elite, they're holding all those opponents they're playing to practically nothing!  Did you see them shut out Minnesota?  Denard Robinson for Heisman, the voting won't even be close!

4. THE MENTALLY ILL (roughly 2%)- Denard Robinson just surpassed Tim Tebow as the greatest college football player to live.


Look folks.  Now that Virginia Tech has made me look like a genius (or someone with common sense?), I'm gonna lay off my friends in Blacksburg and concentrate on Michigan.  The hype is getting rediculous people.  Denard Robinson is not the greatest player in college football, even right now, let alone of all time.  You're probably the same people that think Vick is the best player in the NFL.  Is Denard the most elusive quarterback? Probably.  The fastest?  He's up there.  The most exciting to watch?  It's arguable.  The best passer?  Absolutely not.  The Best?  Umm, no.  He's not the quarterback at Stanford, after all.

Robinson is averaging 168 yards passing per game.  I've seen college Intramural quarterbacks throw for more than that.  As for the most embarassing part of the Wolverines, the Michigan football team has not only played a rediculously meaningless schedule (take out the last second win against ehh-inspiring Notre Dame, and you've got a punchline of a September lineup), they haven't even left the school campus yet.  The Minnesota blowout/shutout?  Oh PLEASE.  Minnesota just lost by 13 points at home to an FCS school.  They could have forfeited the game against Michigan and it would have meant about as much.

Mark your Calendars: Don't look too far.  Michigan will face an interesting test at Northwestern this weekend in a game that I have no idea how to gauge because I don't really know how good either of these teams are.  The following weekend, get ready for a loss as the Wolverines travel to Michigan State.  Illinois?  Probable loss.  Nebraska?  Loss.  Overrated?  Big time.



This Weekend: 14/18
This Season: 52/60

Sunday, September 25, 2011

The Morgantown Hangover: LSU, JMU Shine

Yes, the game was disappointing- we were so close to making it a game.  Despite all the turnovers and 3rd down conversions West Virginia allowed, they were still right in the game up to that kickoff return.  But props to LSU for winning in a very tough environment.  If you don't believe that this 4-0 team should be #1 in the country after the four games that they've played, you don't deserve to call yourself a college football fan.  Wins on the road against Mississippi State and WVU?  Another win at a semi-neutral site over Oregon?  Yeah, I'm pretty sure they deserve it.  Oklahoma's best win is a team that is at .500 through four weeks and tied for last place in the ACC right now.  Why not LSU?


But enough about that, I want to shift gears and focus on another team of mine that did win this weekend.  No, I'm not talking about the Orioles ending Verlander's winning streak of insanity.  I'm talking about the James Madison Dukes.

Last year, as JMU's football team fell into disarray, there wasn't really any hope for anything exciting.  The team had used up all of its excitement in a single game- the 21-16 Blacksburg win over Virginia Tech.  I don't think any JMU student would trade that day away for anything.  Ever.  But it needs to be said that the Dukes were incredibly mediocre and undeserving of a lot of praise after the 2-0 start to the year.  They managed to upset then-top-ranked William and Mary at home in a complete where-did-come-from moment, but they didn't do a whole lot other than that after September 11, 2010.

Not the case this year.  After JMU was handled by North Carolina, the Dukes have realed off three straight impressive victories: Central Connecticut State (a playoff team whether you realize it or not, people), at Liberty (ranked in the fringes of the FCS top 25), and at #5 William and Mary. 

The Dukes are for real this year, folks.  They aren't messing around.

That win over 20th ranked Liberty?  It broke their 9-game home winning streak and most likely sent grown men crying to their beds prior to their 9:00 PM university-imposed bedtime.  That W&M win?  A signature win against a team hungry for some revenge.  JMU not only racked up 271 yards of rushing offense (and Dae'Quan Scott had over 100 yards by himself), but they limited William and mary to 37 yards rushing.  They barely averaged 1 ypc.  You can't ask for much more than that out of your defense.

JMU sits around #12 in post polls right now, but as the FCS polls start to roll out today and tomorrow, expect for JMU to hop into the top 10.  What you shouldn't expect, however, is for the road to get any easier.  Archrival Richmond comes to town this weekend in an FCS top 10 showdown.  If JMU wins, it will put us at 2-0 in the CAA.  At that point, we would be in contention not just for the CAA title- we would be a serious contender for the national championship. 

First thing is first.  JMU cannot afford to sleep on Richmond, a team that I still have yet to see the Dukes beat as a student.  We need this game not only for our CAA resume, but for our own momentum- the Homecoming game against Richmond (I'm assuming it's homecoming, since Richmond is always Homecoming) marks the first game of a crucial three-weekend homestand where we play top 10 Richmond, CAA foe Maine, and the always-dangerous Villanova.  If we were to go 2-1 in that stretch, we would be a very good team.  But if we could somehow make it 3-0, we would be a great team. 

I think the 2009 and 2010 JMU teams have created a certain cautiousness among the students that were here and witnessed their shortcomings.  We don't want to get our hopes up- those teams, after all, had such great potential too- because we've seen what happens when we do.

Throw caution to the wind people.  JMU is a legitimate national title contender this year.  Get out to games and support your team.  When Richmond comes to Harrisonburg, Bridgeforth should be absolutely packed.  We need to make that game as loud as possible.  A quiet top 10 showdown is not an option.

LSU is a national title contender this year in FBS with a dominant defense, a power running game, and an opportunistic offense.  If they can do it, why can't the Dukes of JMU?



This weekend: 16/19
This season: 38/42

Thoughts from Game Day

In case you haven't heard me talking about it nonstop on facebook/twitter/real life for the last God knows how many days, I'm in Morgantown for college game day this week.  Emotions are running high after a loss that looked a loss that looked a lot more lopsided than the game really was.  Here are my thoughts: the good, the bad, and the ugly of both teams.



West Virginia:

Good:  This passing offense of Holgorsen's is so legit, and it was an absolute treat to see it in person (meant literally and metaphorcally- scalper asking prices were around $300 as I was tailgatng).  LSU's defense was highly touted and with good reason, but that didn't stop WVU from passing to the tune of FIVE HUNDRED YARDS?  Absolutely absurd.  It makes them a force to be reckoned with in just about any game.

Bad: The Mountaineers did display a surprisingly stout defense against a much larger front, but they showed lapses of fundamental tackling skills in critical situatioins.  Giving up 9 yard rushes because of missed tackles in the backfield on your own 40, dropping balls that are easy catches... you cant do that and win football games, and WVU had one or two too many plays like this.

Ugly: Once again, West Virginia shows the absolute worst aspect of the team, year in and year out, is special teams kickoff coverage.  West Virginia had cut the lead to 6 measely points and was threatening an absolutely epic comeback with all the momentum in the world focused on Morgantown's home team.  Lack of quality kickoff coverage allowed a 99 yard kickoff touchdown, and the resulting loss of momentum pretty much doomed the rest of the game.


LSU:

Good: Maybe Lee is a little underrated.  Regardless, LSU's offense was firing pretty well tonight.  If the defense lives up to its hype and the offense plays like this, I can't see anyone beating them.

Bad: LSU's offense teamed really, really one dimensional.  It's an interesting dichotomy, listing offensive prowess and offensive inadequecies as both a strength and a weakness.  But as game film piles up against LSU, the offense is going to start to look more and more one-dimensional and focused on a power running game.  I can't count how many times I saw a power toss to the right of the offensive line.  Lee was certainly capable of doing enough to move the chains and advance the ball down the field, but I think the lack of creative play calling on LSU's offense has the potential to hurt them.

Ugly: It's gotta be said.  LSU made the New York Giants look good in this game by (seemingly) faking injuries an inordinant amount of times.  LSU "injuries" numbered in the double digits, and it got to the point that fans- myself included- started booing every time an injured player went down.  The defense looked winded a lot, and injuries started occurring magically every time the WVU offense started clicking, or the tempo was getting pushed faster.  At one point, I saw a referee told Les Miles that the next LSU injury would cost the Tigers a time out.  Injuries stopped happening.  I won't out and out call them dirty cheaters, and I'm not making excuses for WVU and the unacceptable amount of turnovers they were forced into.  That being said, use your brain and draw your own conclusions.



In addition to all that, I think WVU fans deserve some serious credit.  Milan Puskar stadium is not the biggest stadium in college football, but the dedication of this fan base puts it in strong contention for one of the loudest.  For the most part, though, mountaineer fans kept it classy, and I think they should be acknowledged for the clean, hard-nosed competitiveness that was provided.  I actually saw an LSU guy high fiving/ holding hands with a WVU guy while they were peeing into an open style latrine, which was as inspiring as it was slightly gay.  Regardless, great atmosphere.  My ears hurt, my heart hurts more, but what an incredible night.

Friday, September 23, 2011

The Pregame For GameDay

I'm going to College Gameday this weekend.  I am SO EXCITED.  Let's look at some matchups.


Interesting Matchups


Vanderbilt at South Carolina: Vandy's defense has been surprisingly good of late, creating a lot of points off of turnovers.  Compare that to a very high octane offense under Steve Spurrier's South Carolina team and we've got ourselves a ball game.  I think the Commies might have their hands full here, but it's at least an interesting matchup to watch.

Arkansas at Alabama- STOP SAYING THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN GAMEDAY.  Do you really think Alabama won't ever have game this year?  Because you're out of your mind if you do.  ESPN has to spread the love outside of the SEC a little bit, and week 4 in Morgantown is the only place they're going to be able to make a legitimate case for a Big East gameday. 

Anyway, the matchup is pretty simple.  Alabama has an absolutely dominant defense and a potent rush attack.  Arkansas probably has the best receivers in the country along with a very good defensive front.  We'll see which SEC team-that-starts-with-an-A wins.  (probably the one with the "LABAMA" after the A)


LSU at West Virginia- If it's good enough for CGD, it's good enough for me.  I've heard lots of descriptions of this game, everything from the more relevant mountaineer offense vs tiger defense all the way down to battle of the two best tailgating schools.  I've also heard battle of the two most hillbillly states.  To those people, on behalf of both states:  Screw you.


Recommended Viewing Schedule:

12- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, ABC
3:30- Trio of great games here: personally, I'd watch Ok.St @ Texas A&M on ESPN2.  Do what you gotta do. 
7-8 First hour of Florida @ Kentucky, ESPN
8- Cmon, you gotta watch LSU @ WVU.
11:30- second half of USC @ Arizona State.  Very underrated game here, if you're still in front of a TV.  I won't be!


Predictions:  I bet you'll never guess who I pick in the LSU-WVU game...

Mizzou @ Oklahoma
LSU @ West Virginia
Arkansas @ Alabama
Tulsa @ Boise St
South Dakota @ Wisconsin
Ok St @ Texas A&M
Nebraska @ Wyoming
Oregon @ Arizona
Florida St @ Clemson
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina
Virginia Tech @ Marshall
Florida @ Kentucky
Rice @ Baylor
UTEP @ USF
Portland St @ TCU
San Diego St @ Michigan
USC @ Arizona St
Western Michigan @ Illinois
UNC @ Georgia Tech

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Rant Time: Boise Can't Beat the Best Just Yet

I think many of us had that friend in high school that cruised through all the easy classes. He might have been smart, but he was a major underachiever. While you were working hard to keep up with AP Lit homework, he was enjoying the fruits of advanced gym and reminding you that his GPA was just a little bit higher than yours.


The BCS system finds itself in a similar predicament this year. I’m talking, of course, about Boise State University. Boise’s athletic director does his best to schedule one fringe national title contender every year so that his team can lay the best possible groundwork for an argument that goes something like this: “did you see how badly we beat up on our in-conference competition? Did you see us win that one game against that team that is kind of good? Look, we’re undefeated! You can’t possibly deny us a bid in the national title game now!”


Well… why not?


For the second straight year, Boise State has traveled to the east coast to play a preseason top 20 team that many fancied a quiet contender for the national title. Boise eked out a win last year over Virginia Tech in their first game of the season. Evidently they enjoyed the weather on this side of the country, because they made a return trip just last weekend to beat Georgia in their 2011 season opener. The most notable statistic about both games isn’t something you’ll find in a box score, though- each BSU victim followed up their 0-1 start with another heartbreaking loss. Georgia fell to 0-2 on Saturday when they played South Carolina after turning the ball three times and allowing Marcus Lattimore to rush for over 150 yards. In 2010, our very own JMU Dukes played salt to Boise State’s wounds by capitalizing on key moments and taking advantage of Virginia Tech’s short week in a 21-16 upset of historic proportions. Both JMU and South Carolina have now played key roles in shaping Boise State’s ultimate destination. When you damage their already tenuous strength of schedule, you do real harm to the Bronco’s chances of appearing in the national title game. And you know what? Good.

In the Western Athletic Conference, Boise State played eight conference games a year. Since the 2009 season, they have won their conference games by an average of 35 points. No small amount of credit should go to the potency of the offense that hyperefficient quarterback Kellen Moore runs, but let’s be real. Boise State has been blowing their opponents out because they aren’t good teams. The casual football fan can’t name more than one or two teams from the WAC- that’s probably not a good sign for the strength of that particular conference. So while Boise State knocks around creampuffs and programs that could be mistaken for high school teams, SEC and other AQ teams are beating the crap out of each other and eliminating each other from title contention.

Look, I’m not saying Boise State should be barred from ever competing for the national championship. They actually play a significantly more difficult schedule this year as they have moved to the Mountain West and must host the likes of TCU and other more accomplished teams. But when you’re a team from a non-automatic qualifying league and you want to play for the championship against one of the big boys, I think you should have to prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that you belong at the table. As for me? I’m not buying in just yet.