Today we catch a first look at my preseason top 10.
10. Arkansas
Why they could contend: Arkansas returns a solid, deep defense that is going to help them contend for the SEC title and beyond. Quarterback Ryan Mallett is gone, but his replacement Tyler Wilson played in multiple games last year when Mallet was out and looked very competent. The receivers he will be throwing to will be excellent and elevate his game further.
Where their problems lie: For a championship quality team, the razorback offensive line will be very shaky this year. Couple that with the recent news that runningback Knile Davis will likely miss the season, and the hogs offense might become dangerously one dimensional- assuming the line can hold together long enough to even get passes off.
What you can expect: Before the Davis injury, Arkansas was actually my preseason favorite to win the SEC. When you take away a returning 1300 yard runningback in a league forecasted to be dominated by runningbacks... things get a little hairy. I still like Arkansas to probably make a top 15 finish, but they probably won't contend for the national championship like I thought they might have a week ago. Nearly every game for the Razorbacks will likely be on an extreme end of the difficulty spectrum this year; opening games against Missouri State, New Mexico, and Troy will not provide much of a challenge whatsoever, while road games at Alabama and LSU will likely be incredibly tough (I'm predicting 0-2 between the two without Davis). Home games against Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Mississippi State will likely be close, but I think Arkansas actually pulls off all three wins in albeit close fashion. Arkansas closes out the regular season at 10-2 and will likely play in the Cotton Bowl, maybe even in a week 5 regular season rematch against Texas A&M.
9. Nebraska
Why they could contend: With all this offseason's crazy headlines of scandal, coaching changes, and conference realignment, one of the more interesting stories has been lost. A Nebraska program that is as steeped in tradition as they come will play its first season in the Big 10 this year. The Cornhuskers bring with them a championship calibre defense and electrifying quarterback Taylor Martinez- a young gun that is probably as exciting a quarterback as college football has to offer.
Where their problems lie: Like many dual threat quarterbacks before him, Taylor Martinez has a big weakness, and that is... well, weakness. Martinez gets himself injured every other game it seems like, and Nebraska isn't exactly rolling in signal callers. To make matters worse, Nebraska's biggest area of concern is the offensive line, which has many holes and seams that still need to be addressed, even after a whole two years of very good recruiting. If you mix a bad offensive line with an already-injury-prone quaterback, you might not like what you get.
What you can expect: Nebraska to contend for the Big 10 title in their first year in the conference. Nebraska is in the sublimely named Legends division of the Big 12 along with Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Minnesota- not exactly hardcore competition in the 2011 football landscape. Michigan State is head and shoulders above the remaining four teams, but are the Spartans more talented than the Cornhuskers? The answer: probably not. I expect Nebraska to score a spot in the first Big 10 title game by dropping just one conference game- at Wisconsin. Look for a rematch of Nebraska's sole season loss in the Big 10 finale- and look for the badgers to rain on the Nebraska's welcoming party a second time, too.
8. LSU
Why they could contend: Les Miles stockpiles defensive talent, there's no question. LSU will once again put together a tough SEC defense that will keep them in virtually every game. Their home field advantage in Death Valley is one of the best in all of college football, and THAT could keep them in virtually every [home] game. A tough nonconference schedule means these Tigers won't be tripped up with conference play starts, too.
Where their problems lie: Several people have LSU in their top five, and I understand their reasoning. They're an SEC staple, they're good every year... blah blah blah. I see a talented defense that is also very young and prone to occasional mistakes. I see a quarterback who, frankly, I wonder how he landed the starting job at a school that won the national championship less than five years ago. I see a coach who I constantly have to wonder which side of the genius/madness line he sits on. And I'm sorry, but no team can run the table with a schedule like theirs. In addition to playing a typical SEC schedule- playing at Alabama and Miss St and having to host the likes of Florida and Arkansas- LSU will also travel to Texas to play Oregon in week one and take a trip up to Morgantown to play WVU in week 4. If they can run the table playing the twelve regular season games that they do, they deserve to win the national championship outright. No NC game... not even an SEC championship game. Just hand them the trophy.
What you can expect: I think LSU can pull out a narrow victory over Oregon with an offensive line in chaos. I think they might even pull off the win at Mississippi State, a team that could very easily sneak up on unsuspecting SEC West teams this year. But I think games in Morgantown and Tuscaloosa will be too much for Les Miles and his gang, and they will finish the season at 10-2, 7-1 in SEC play. They miss out on the SEC championship but are still in contention to be the SEC's second BCS team.
7. Oregon
Why they could contend: There was a point last year where I honestly thought that, if you could actually move the Oregon Ducks from the Pac10 to the NFC West, they might actually make the NFL playoffs. Their mile a minute offense just runs circles around people, and quarterback Darren Thomas + star runningback LaMichael James just know how to work Chip Kelly's system. Their offense puts up points, and then they put up more points, and then they coast... by continuing to score more points. The ducks averaged 48 points a game last year: they're actually aiming to top that mark this year. And if that's not enough, don't bother trying to play from behind- Oregon's secondary is stellar too.
Where their problems lie: As mediocre as Oregon's offensive line was last year for LaMichael James to run through, it's even worse this year. If the Oregon program wanted to protect the health of their star pony and make his wellbeing a priority, they would have gone out and recruited some 5 start offensive linemen. Instead, James faces the very real possibility of finding himself injured from lack of help this year along the line. On defense, the front 7 are nothing to brag about for a team with championship aspirations, and the schedule is hardly forgiving. Road games at Stanford and Washington and a very far away, technically-but-not-really neutral game in Texas against LSU could really damage Oregon's national title hopes.
What you can expect: Expect a disappoining sophomore campaign from LaMichael James. Darren Thomas is nice, but LaMichael James is what makes this offense goes. James will try to shoulder too much of the load when he simply can't do it with the offensive line the way it is. Going through a critical stretch of games (@Wash, @Stanford, USC), I think James finds himself injured and the offense stutters in his absense. He is missed sorely. Oregon drops two of its three most important conference games and surrenders control of its BCS fate to the Stanford Cardinals.
6. Stanford:
Why they could contend: Hey, have you heard of that kid Andrew Luck? Yeah. Okay.
But seriously, Stanford is loaded at all the skill positions on offense. The defense is decent. It could be better, but when your offense is what's out at the farm right now, does it really need to be?
Where their problems lie: Simply put, Stanford's play at both the offensive and defensive line is pretty mediocre. The cardinals will probably be able to manage without an elite pass rush, but if the O line can't hold up and protect Luck, this team won't be able to compete for the Pac12 title, let alone a Rose bowl berth/national championship.
What you can expect: For one, you can expect Luck to throw for at least 3000 yards in his senior year Heisman campaign. He came back for his senior year not just because he is a classy guy, but because he feels he can accomplish more at the college level before going on to (probably) become a number 1 overall draft pick. So i predict 3400 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 6 picks. Team wise, the cards go 3-0 in the nonconference. The only noteworthy team is a home game against Notre Dame in the final week of the regular season, and you can expect Luck to tear up a defense that will be touted as "tough to crack" up until this game. In conference play, there isn't much more of a challenge. Early games at Arizona and against UCLA might provide a nice early test, but I think the cardinals won't be truly tested until a late October game against USC. The trojans will fly well below the radar and use a huge home field audience to shock the cardinals, bringing them down to a 7-1 record. As for the Pac12 title, most people fathom that it will be decided on November 12. That is, of course, the day that Oregon plays at Stanford. Oregon will most likely come in guns blazing with their high octane offense, but I think their team is too banged up and faces too much of a challenge in a shootout against Stanford. The cardinals cruise to a near undefeated season and win the Pac12 title game against surprise southern champion Arizona State, but their disappointing loss to postseason-ineligble USC relegates them to the Rose Bowl rather than the National Championship.
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