The moment feels too big for my voice alone, so I've gathered another roundtable to parse what is arguably the most high-profile JMU football game of our lives.
Our panelists today:
Let's get to our questions.
1. North Dakota State is the five-time reigning national champion. The Bison are facing a dangerous team who could finally dethrone them, and blah blah blah.
We've all heard this storyline hastily assembled every week in December for the last half-decade, and the Bison haven't lost one yet. So tell me: does JMU have any chance to win this game?
Meaghan MacDonald: I have lived in North Dakota now for about three and a half years and in Fargo specifically for a year and a half. Every year I have heard 'this is the playoff game where the Bison go down,' and every year they keep winning championships. I am kind of numb to this question and also bitter. But a streak can't last forever, and JMU does have a chance to end the dynasty. With the loss of Fargo's hero QB Carson Wentz to the NFL, and some major injuries to some key players (linebackers Nick DeLuca and Pierre Gee-Tucker) the Bison have looked shakier than in the past and are probably at their "weakest" in the last six seasons. And I say that with a touch of sarcasm. JMU’s biggest advantage is how effective it’s been on the road. The Dukes had probably the most challenging road slate in the CAA -- traveling to Maine, New Hampshire, Richmond and Villanova -- and came out untouched. However, the chance to upset NDSU has been automatically shaved down due to the location of Friday's game. The Fargodome is by far the loudest and most intimidating arena I have ever been inside of. The ferocity and ear-splitting loudness can really rattle a team if they are not used to playing in a dome on the regular, and it doesn’t help that the team doesn’t have an indoor practice facility to prepare for something like the dome. I would give the Dukes around a 50 percent chance of topping the Bison.
Wayne Epps Jr: Absolutely. Coming off its historically dominant performance against Sam Houston State, and also its resounding win over New Hampshire in the second round, JMU has strong momentum at the right time. And, at 49.6 points per game (which now leads the FCS), the JMU offense can seemingly put the Dukes in a position to win against almost anyone. On top of that, JMU had big regular-season wins over Maine, New Hampshire, then-No. 6-ranked Richmond and No. 9-ranked Villanova on the road. So, I think the Dukes are well prepared to leave Bridgeforth Stadium and go toe to toe with NDSU at the Fargodome.
Joe Kerlin: If a blonde-haired Kanye West can meet with President-elect Donald Trump at Trump Tower, anything is possible. But we’re talking about the FCS Playoffs, not the reality show that is our country so, no. James Madison has zero chance.
JMU Sports Blog: Of course they do. This Bison team has looked more vulnerable than other vintages. Iowa, while tough, was a perfect matchup for them as they play similar styles and the Hawkeyes didn't run away from people. NDSU lost at home to SDSU this year and really struggled out of the gate in the opener with a good-not-great Chuck Southern squad. They grind like always, play mistake-free ball, and are enormous up front, but with the exception of QB Stick, they don't appear to have the game-changers at the skill positions at quite the level they have in other years. The Dukes are definitely capable and have the talent to pull this off if they can avoid injuries and turnovers.
Chase Kiddy: Absolutely, and any Bison fans who tell you they don't are deluding themselves into the same fan-fiction reality that they mock other teams for. The Bison are an extremely tough team to play against, particularly in Fargo. But let's address the elephant in the room. North Dakota State is merely 'very, very good' this year. They are not the unbeatable juggernaut they were under Brock Jensen a couple years ago. JMU is a great, physical team in its own right, and they are capable of winning it all this year.
2. The prevailing notion around much of FCS football is that, with apologies to Eastern Washington, Fargo's Friday night game features the two best remaining teams. Is Friday a de facto national championship game?
MM: I would say yes. I wouldn't rule out Eastern Washington 100 percent, but JMU or NDSU has it pretty much locked up. The Eagles did lose to the Bison by only six points in overtime during their Sept. 10 meeting and ended their season on an 11-game winning streak. However, playing in the Big Sky definitely doesn't help their case. The conference overall was weak and definitely helped in padding the Eagles’ statistics. If it comes down to a rematch between the Bison and the Eagles, NDSU definitely takes it since the Bison haven't lost to the same opponent twice in the same season for years and Frisco is basically homefield advantage for them. For the Dukes, the CAA is a mix of a little bit of everything which definitely sets them up for success against Eastern if they should match up.
WE: That’s a fair assessment. The NDSU vs. JMU matchup is certainly not short on intrigue. NDSU’s well-documented national title streak and its 18-0 FCS home playoff record will be on the line against a team in JMU that really appears to be firing on all cylinders. I don’t believe the national championship game on Jan. 7 will be a cakewalk, but you have to think that the victor in the NDSU vs. JMU game will be feeling good about its chances to win it all.
JK: When there's a team left in the tournament that scored 44 points against the Bison, it's hard for me to call Friday night's game a “de facto national championship.” If anything, last week's NDSU-SDSU's Dakota Marker Pt. II was closer to a national championship. We had two opponents who knew each other better than anyone else in the country, to go along with the narrative that the Jackrabbits were the last team to beat the Bison. The tale of the tape told you it was going to be a tougher fight for NDSU. There’s no doing justice to how emotional and psyched up the city of Fargo and the players were for that game.
Oops, I think I just talked myself into hangover-game-potential for the Bison. Can I go back to the first question and give JMU a 10 percent chance to win?
Also, before I move on here, I just want to say I wouldn’t mess with Youngstown. If it weren’t for Martin Ruiz stashing heat in his glove box, the Penguins could’ve pulled the upset and earned a trip to Frisco. But you CAAers would hate to see another Missouri Valley Football Conference matchup in the championship game for the second time in three years, wouldn’t ya? ;)
JMUSB: We don't really think so. All four teams are past champs with deep history and if you've made it this far, you're a legit threat to win it (Or at least every team was before this NDSU run). And as we see in Bowl Season for FBS every year, after grades come in and the holiday break, playing in January can go many different ways. In other words, teams may lose kids to academic suspensions, off-the-field New Year's crap, or even go the other way and truly lock in on the extra preparation available for the Championship game. All four head coaches remaining have proven their bona fides and would each scheme like crazy with the extra time to gameplan.
CK: Part of me wants to say yes. In some ways, Eastern Washington is a less talented version of JMU, and Youngstown State is a less talented version of North Dakota State. Some twisted form of logic leads to the conclusion that, yes, whoever wins this game between JMU and North Dakota State is the likely national champion.
I'm going to say no, though, because I think that's probably a little disrespectful to Eastern Washington. EWU is actually ranked higher in the Sagarin Rankings than JMU, so while I actually think the Eagles are the best remaining matchup for the Dukes, I wouldn't say tomorrow night's winner is a lock to win it all, either.
3. From JMU's perspective, what's the scariest part of playing NDSU this week?
MM: The Bison defense is second-to-none. Their front seven has been playing out of their minds and gave even the most fruitful offenses fits all season. Two of the biggest threats on defense are Menard and Stumpf. The junior defensive end has 15 tackles for loss this season and 10 sacks while Stumpf is leading the team with 79 tackles.
WE: The NDSU defense. The Bison have the ninth-ranked total defense in the FCS, allowing 310.2 yards per game. On the other side, JMU has the third-ranked total offense in the FCS, averaging 532 yards per game. The Bison are also third in the country in scoring defense, yielding just 15.8 points per game. And, on the ground, NDSU has the eighth-ranked rush defense with 99.2 yards allowed per game, while JMU has the fourth-ranked rush offense with 291 yards gained per game. The Dukes will be looking to crack that stout Bison unit, and allow its assortment of playmakers to keep producing.
JK: The size and speed of the linemen on both sides of the ball for the Bison is the scariest part for JMU. The offensive line consists of grown men with three seniors and a junior who have started the last 11 games together. The defensive line is missing their best defensive tackle, but they’ll rotate around 10-11 guys. Oh, and one of the guys responsible for molding these linemen is assistant strength and conditioning coach Ryan Napoli. SB Nation’s Spencer Hall called him a bear once.
*Googles JMU director of football strength & conditioning*
Good Governor. His nickname is Big John. Let’s move the chances of the Dukes winning up to 20 percent.
JMUSB: All the exterior noise that surrounds teams this time of year. JMU appears to be a team that's developed a deep belief in itself, but that will truly be tested in prep week for playing the 5x champs way beyond The Wall and wondering if you can really do it. On the field, we think Coach Houston is correct that this team has been built for this particular matchup and closed the talent and coaching gaps as well as any team during NDSU's run, but will they be able to maintain their belief when they're tested so much. We certainly think so!
CK: When I wrote this question, I thought I was going to say the noise. The FargoDome is loud as hell, and while the Dukes has played exceptionally well on the road this year, they're not going to have heard anything like what they'll see tomorrow night. But Mike Houston says the team has a plan to deal with the crowd noise. As far as I'm concerned, he's pitched a perfect game this year in terms of coaching maneuvers, so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. He's earned that.
Instead, I'll say North Dakota State's offensive line and ball-control strategy. JMU is not a quick-possession disciple of the spread offense, so I'm not losing sleep over Time of Possession concerns. That being said, North Dakota State's offensive line is gigantic. I think JMU's defensive front is subject to being exposed by big, giant offensive lines. The Dukes can counter by bringing their Spur defensive back into the box to clog things up, but even still, I think the front is susceptible to being worn down.
4. When Friday evening rolls around, what's the key matchup to watch for?
MM: There are two that come to mind. The first is JMU junior QB Bryan Schor against NDSU safety Tre Dempsey. JMU once again has found a solid QB in Schor who has racked up awards and accolades this season and the proper recognition. The numbers he’s put up this year are insanely impressive and will be fun to watch in person. Dempsey has been all over quarterbacks this year and made it a mission to make them pay for the smallest mistakes. He has six interceptions on the year and will be sure to have Schor right in his cross hairs.
WE: The NDSU defensive front vs. the JMU offensive line. This could be a formidable fight. The Bison will certainly be looking to keep running backs Khalid Abdullah and Trai Sharp (who had a combined 285 rushing yards and five touchdowns against Sam Houston State) at bay. If they get going, it could spell trouble for them. The JMU offensive line will want to provide the room for Abdullah and Sharp to flourish, and the time for quarterback Bryan Schor to spread the ball around. Who will win the battle in the trenches?
JK: The wind chill versus the amount of Fireball one can handle is always a fascinating matchup, but this is always the case during playoffs in Fargo so let’s go with a matchup with a little bit more nuance. Thankfully, NDSU built a dome in 1993 so this game will be inside. Unfortunately for Bryan Schor, said dome gets as loud as a plane leaving the runway. The matchup of the game is Schor against a crowd of just under 19,000. Let’s look at a stat line because stats are fun sometimes.
- 55% Completion percentage
- 171.44 yards/game
- 8 Touchdowns
- 21 Interceptions
- 42 Sacks
JMUSB: JMU's defensive front six/seven against NDSU's run game. In fact, there's not another matchup that even comes close to matching this one in terms of obvious importance. If NDSU grinds the clock and wins Time of Possession by a huge margin like they did against SDSU last week, the Dukes are in big trouble. On the other hand, if JMU's defense can get off the field on third down and force NDSU to test JMU's deep and talented defensive backfield enough, eventually a big play will come for the Dukes. A couple players to really keep an eye on this week will be Simeyon Robinson, who played last week, but is slowly recovering from injury along the D-Line. He can provide much-needed depth along the front if he's still improving. Also, LB Dimitri Holloway, who may get his biggest opportunity yet for the Dukes and he'll need to step up.
CK: I know I just spent two paragraphs talking about North Dakota State's offensive line, but I actually think the most important matchup in the game is JMU's offensive line versus NDSU's defensive front. Like the Bison, JMU's offensive line enjoys a pretty hefty advantage over their counterparts across the line of scrimmage. You have to assume that NDSU is going to put together some drives. They're going to get their's. If Khalid Abdullah and the run game can establish drives of their own and give the offense a chance, they can outscore the Bison. That's the blueprint.
5. JMU at North Dakota State. Friday Night, 7pm, ESPN2. Who ya got?
MM: I have been waiting for this matchup since I moved to North Dakota. It's been a long four seasons of football watching the Bison dominate again and again and enduring overly confident and equally annoying fans, but the streak needs to end. Who better than the Dukes? As long as their rushing attack is sharp, mistakes and penalties are limited and the Fargodome doesn’t get in their heads, the Dukes win a down-to-the-wire game in Fargo 24-21.
WE: JMU 41, NDSU 35. I just believe the high-powered JMU offense will end up being too much, even for NDSU’s standout defense, and the Dukes will outscore the Bison at the Fargodome.
JK: First of all, we can agree this is the playoff matchup everybody wanted to see with the number one offense in the country against the Bison Dynasty. What more could football fans ask for? JMU can embarrass you in a hurry (see: here, here, also here and here). But NDSU hasn’t been embarrassed since the release of 808s and Heartbreak. People around here are confident for the exact reasons mentioned in the first question: “The Bison are facing a dangerous team who could finally dethrone them, and blah blah blah.” NDSU fans and people like me have seen this story unfold too many times. We’ll get nervous pregame talking about the opposing team’s impact players, then NDSU’s backup linebacker Chris Board will make a big hit on the opening kickoff, the quarterback gets sacked by Greg Menard to end the first series and then one of NDSU’s quartet of running backs will break a big play. It’s happened too many times to teams outside of the Missouri Valley that try to step in during playoffs and end the dynasty.
The key to NDSU’s current 22-game playoff winning streak has been the mix of experienced leadership and young guys looking to make a splash. This year is no different. You could argue quarterback Easton Sticks has epitomized both. Yes, he led NDSU to the championship game last year when he went 8-0 in relief for the second pick in the NFL draft. But he hasn’t started in an FCS Championship. He’s hungry. He wants to cement his legacy next to Carson Wentz and the all-time FCS leader in wins Brock Jensen. Stick won’t let JMU get in the way of history.
Bison by two touchdowns.
JMUSB: Duuuuukes! 23-21 on a Tyler Gray FG at the horn. We think this will be a ridiculously hard-fought game and lower-scoring than most people think, but we think Schor, Abdullah, and Ravenel find a way to make enough plays when it matters most.
CK: All good things must come to an end, and North Dakota State seems as vulnerable as they've been in years. I have so much respect for North Dakota State and everything they've done... but give me the Dukes in the Game of the Year, 27-24.
