Thursday, May 19, 2016

Stop What You're Doing and Prepare for the JMU Softball Regional

JMU softball opens regional play on Friday in Harrisonburg, marking the second straight year our eternal overlords at the NCAA will command three unfortunate schools to endure the unfriendly arms of the Friendly City. Veterans Memorial Park is all but guaranteed to sell out, so if the box office is still open, why are you still reading this stupid blog? Go get an all-weekend pass for $25.

In Case You've Been Under a Rock, JMU is good at softball. Like, really good. Like, beat-Tennessee-by-slaughter-rule-in-February-before-the-team-really-even-found-its-stride good.

The Dukes can score runs well enough -- they've always been pretty good at generating offense, even dating back to the Katie Flynn days -- but it's the pitching that makes them legitimate national championship contenders. Senior Jailyn Ford and sophomore (sophomore?!) Megan Good form arguably the best 1-2 combination of starting pitching anywhere in the western world. Both are All-Americans; both have ERA's under 1.0; both have pitched a perfect game.

Oh, and they're not just one-trick ponies, either. When they're not in the circle, they can light it up at the plate as well, which leads to some pretty mind-bending sports stats.

Leave it to Mattie Jones and K-Dub to pull out the heavy guns.

They're battle-tested.  In the not-too-distant future, there should be a JMU-based 30-for-30 aimed at mid-major athletic departments that features how the Bourne & Co. drafted a schedule as a little guy and came out seeded as a giant. Here's a list of teams JMU beat today, all of which made the NCAA tournament, but zero of which actually played JMU in Harrisonburg:

  • UCF (ranked No. 17 at time of game)
  • Auburn (Ranked No. 5 at time of game)
  • Oklahoma State
  • Fordham
  • BYU
  • Arizona (JMU beat them twice)
  • Ohio State
  • Arizona State (Ranked No. 21 at time of game)

They ain't afraid of nobody.

The Regional Schedule features an ACC cousin (North Carolina), an in-state foe (Longwood), and a sub-.500 group of nerds that got lost on the way to chess club (Princeton).

Seriously though, there isn't a lot to see here. An intra-state matchup later in the weekend could be the type of bloodbath that is fun for three or four innings, but ultimately gets boring, and you end up anxiously counting down Good strikeouts with a mountain of paper K printouts, just so you can get back to the parking lot to shotgun Keystones. The probable matchup with North Carolina carries the most sex appeal, if only because JMU has some noteworthy postseason history with the Tarheels.

All you need to know about the Harrisonburg regional is that JMU is a -600 favorite to advance to the Super Regional, while the field is +400. And speaking of odds...

A Sure Bet... if you've got $5,000. At several online sportsbooks, you can actually bet the NCAA softball tournament. As of this posting, only lines for the first crop of regional games have been posted, which means that only JMU vs Princeton is available. To win $100, you'd have to bet $5,250 on JMU. That's a hard square bet, simply because the up-front money is so high, but it's about as close to a guaranteed Franklin as you're likely to find in gambling. 

(Also of note -- JMU is the second-biggest favorite on the board, behind only Tennessee at -7500. Though when you consider that Florida has been taken off the board altogether for its opener vs Alabama State, the Dukes would likely be the third-biggest favorite on a full board.)

Similar story, different ending.  Last year, JMU softball hosted a regional, but got tripped up by an unexpectedly good NC State squad. Expect an undercurrent of measured expectation, and a predictable narrative arc of senior redemption. 

For all the literary cliches, though, this team has earned the praise it's garnered. They've obliterated almost every team they've played; the only conference loss they took was a 15-inning marathon game against a capable Elon team. (I have to imagine that, after a game that's more than twice the length of a normal match, players on both teams would have been happy to surrender, just to get off the field.)

When you combine the relatively weak competition that's headed for the Harrisonburg Regional and the dominance that JMU has pitched with, it's a fairly safe bet to look forward to what could potentially be in the Super Regional. Which is...

Purple and Gold v. Purple and Gold. If seeding holds, JMU will host LSU -- yes, that LSU -- in Harrisonburg at the Super Regional level. I'm prepared to make the argument that this would be the biggest home game in the history of JMU athletics.

But to get there, the Dukes have to take care of business Friday, Saturday, and Sunday against a crop of beatable teams. The forecast is calling for rain on Saturday, but who the hell cares? JMU Athletics saved the best for last this year. Get out there and watch some history. The WCWS is waiting.

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Everett Withers bails on JMU for Texas State

In my head, I have a complicated relationship with Everett Withers. He's clearly a gifted hype man, the sort of guy you'd want spotting you on the bench press or pumping you up in the corner of a boxing ring in between rounds. He's got some pretty neat slogans. He can string letters and numbers together with the best of them. He's got a knack for hash tags.

And in all seriousness, Withers was much-needed cough medicine. Bitter to the taste, but otherwise curative of what ailed JMU. The culprit in this particular case? The locker room behind the south end zone got a little too stale, just a little too complacent, under Mickey Matthews. It's football. It happens. And Withers' extra pep in his step fixed those problems, come what may.

But let's call this what it is. It's a shitty, savvy business decision from someone who's too smart to get exposed this early in his career. In the stock trade, you buy low and sell high. Your moves are dictated by the arc you feel your stock is on. When you're in a business like coaching, decisions are made along the same rubric. He may be coming off back-to-back playoff losses as a home favorite, but Withers' stock was arguably at peak height. He gets the credit for landing an ACC quarterback transfer. He gets the credit for centering that quarterback in a video game offense. He gets the credit for bringing College GameDay to an FCS school.

You sell high on that. It's that simple. All the other details, like the alumni love and the media disconnect? That doesn't matter. It's a cutthroat business, and this is a cutthroat business decision. Fans line up to make excuses for him here; he could be a god. But to him, that FBS head-coaching tab is more important, in the grand scheme of things.

I'm not going to break this down for you guys much further than that. By now, the Withers-to-Texas-State news is already almost 24 hours old, and the Internet has had plenty of time to digest the facts and spew up a football field’s worth of frothy hot takes.

What is undeniably horrible here is the timing. Coaching departures are just part of the business, but leaving a few weeks before National Signing Day, and six days after tweeting about how thrilled you are to bring in a top-tier recruiting class, is objectively shitty.

Past that, all that's left are the I-Told-You-So's. I try not to do this too much of that, because nothing is more annoying than a guy rubbing it in your face when you're already low. But back when I was writing columns for the Breeze, I penned this prophetic masterpiece:

"Matthews and his staff can’t be absolved of all responsibility. The lack of a forward passing game at JMU has become so publicly mocked, it’s nearly clichΓ©. Calling plays out of the shotgun in short yardage situations has become a regularity. The defense, for all its talent, simply couldn’t cover anyone, and incomplete passes were often a result of happenstance rather than actual defensive prowess.

Most damningly, the offense failed to develop an identity as quarterbacks were shuffled and reshuffled like so many decks of cards. Mix in the option, the wildcat, zone-reads and numerous other play calls, and it’s unclear whether JMU oversees a football team or a Bertie Botts Every Flavored Bean factory.

As a result, CAA blogs and message boards are full of snide young alumni, living in their Northern Virginia lofts, parading on about how Matthews should be fired immediately. I think they should get back to their cubicle and concentrate on their spreadsheets. Inducing a coaching panic is the last thing the program needs right now.

While the expectations weren’t met and the class of 2013 will graduate without a home playoff game, Matthews deserves his fan base’s trust. I’m not a believer in national championships buying free rides, but there just isn’t enough here to trade an admirably devoted coach Matthews for some young up-and-comer who will only see JMU as a stepping stone."

I don't think I'm lobbying for us to send Mickey an offer sheet or anything, but I do feel a little bit like Alfred in The Dark Knight. Walking out of my secret underground shed where I write this blog, like, yeah, but I did bloody tell you.

Look, it's going to get worse before it gets better. JMU is going to lose recruits. And the more recruits that decommit and depart, the more enticing it's going to be for other recruits to jump ship, too. There's a certain element of self-sustaining chaos that will be in play over the next few weeks, until a hire is made and the athletic department can stop the bleeding.

The good news is that, after briefly talking with a couple of people this afternoon, I feel reassured that there is an actual plan in motion, and not just crisis communication, control-the-narrative bullshit. JMU is aggressively pursuing people, and it doesn't seem like anyone is off limits. (Seriously, though, stop holding your breath for Chip Kelly, because that shit just isn't happening.)

I suppose I'll end with one final thought on Everett Withers, before he goes in the sin bin with the rest of the sports unmentionables. I'm reminded of the Michael Jordan commercial where MJ speaks to a few dozen aspirational teenagers, looking for insight into how to be better.

"Maybe it's my fault," Jordan says. "Maybe I led you to believe my game was built on flash, not fire."
Jordan's voice trails off.

"Or maybe, you're just making excuses."

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I've misjudged Everett. Maybe he's more than a good-not-great coach who was gifted a one-in-a-million quarterback situation. Maybe he let me believe his talents were more throat than brain.

Then again, I haven't been wrong yet. And today, in Harrisonburg, nobody is making excuses for Everett Withers any longer.

Friday, December 4, 2015

Consortium VI: JMU Prepares for Colgate in the FCS Playoffs' Round of 16

Tomorrow's clash between JMU and the fightin' Tubes of Colgate toothpaste is the first December football game inside Bridgeforth Stadium in quite some time. So to get you primed for it, I've gathered another gaggle of talking heads. And we're going to, ya know, talk.

Your panelists today:
  • Wayne Epps, Editor-in-Chief of the award-winning Breeze
  • JMU Sports Blog (Don't pretend like you don't know.)
  • Dylan Garner, Sports Producer at the Richmond Times-Dispatch
  • Luke Wachob, JMU Alum and former Breeze Opinion Columnist
  • Me. Part-time journalist, full-time drunk fan.

1. Armed with a 9-2 regular season record, JMU football is feeling refreshed after a five-day Thanksgiving holiday. The team is playing in December for the first time since 2008; on the other hand, injuries and miscues threaten to take the title-contending Dukes out of Harrisonburg as soon as next weekend. So to this point, has JMU overachieved, underachieved, or performed right at expectations? 

Wayne Epps: I have to say that JMU is performing right at expectations. I expected the Dukes to build on last season’s experience, and here they are with a national seed this year and another home game. You certainly can’t be mad at a 9-2 record either. Yes, there was the undefeated run earlier in the season, and what could’ve been the opportunity for a higher seed if that run stretched longer. But if the goal is to make the playoffs and have a chance at a national championship, the Dukes have accomplished that. Plus, they’re in a better spot than they were last year. Now, after the first-round bye, JMU is four wins away from the ultimate prize.

JMU Sports Blog: From a total body of work perspective, I think 9-2 is in line with even some of the more optimistic fans' expectations heading into the season. The MVC might be the top league in the FCS, but the CAA is no slouch. We certainly didn't expect JMU to run the table and would have taken 9-2 and playoff seed in a heartbeat if they were offered to us back in August. 

However, JMU's play under Vad Lee up until the Richmond game was so stellar, that the hype and expectations were growing to unseen levels. I certainly thought that a National Championship could be in the cards. Since Vad's injury, the "Deathstar" offense has been far less frightening. A Championship or deep playoff run is still possible, but it seems a little less likely than it did a few months ago. Long story short, the team has performed right at preseason expectations, but is falling short of peak expectations when Vad and the offense were hitting on all cylinders.

That was basically two full paragraphs of hedging the fence and not really answering anything. You're welcome. 

Dylan Garner: This was a team that was built, at least strategically, to take advantage of Vad Lee’s skill set in a juggernaut offense. It certainly succeeded, and even with his exit from the lineup, the system is still working very well. I would say they performed at the level that everybody thought they could. Did I necessarily expect a team this strong? Not really. But to say they overachieved might take away from the great mix of talent this team fields, particularly on offense.

Luke Wachob:  Overachieved. If you followed JMU during the late Mickey Matthews era, you know how little preseason hype is worth. Every year is tough no matter what you did the year before, and you have to love playing at home in December. Period. 

Chase Kiddy: I don't disagree with anything that was said above. And I want to add the caveat that any fan who says JMU had a bad regular season is a spoiled, whiney brat who needs a reality check. JMU won the CAA, nabbed a first-round bye, and has (statistically) the best offense in FCS football. Check, please. Thanks for a great year, Everett and Co.

But... couldn't I still make a case that this team has underachieved? Six weeks ago, this team had a legitimate shot to go undefeated and start its own dynasty. The Dukes are still dancing in December, so it's easy to lose sight of what's happened over the last month, but the reality is the following: 

  • The Dukes are only conference champions by virtue of William & Mary losing on the last day of the regular season.
  • JMU's defense ranks in the back half of all FCS units, despite having the opportunity to pad the stats against some pretty awful teams (Elon, Albany, Morehead State).
  • JMU is only guaranteed one home game. If seeding holds, the Dukes will be on the road for the remainder of the playoffs, despite the fact that JMU received first-place votes for the first two thirds of the season.

Look, I'm not saying JMU had a bad season, or that the team shouldn't be proud of their accomplishments. When your best player goes down for the season, expectations have to be re-calibrated. But I don't want to pretend that September and October never happened, either. You can cast a lot of the crash back to Earth on Vad's injury, but the defensive shortcomings? That's the reason for both losses, and that's nothing but failing to perform.

2. JMU has a date with Colgate, uber-methodical champions of the Patriot League, on Saturday at 1pm. Which player is most critical to JMU's success this weekend?

WE: Sophomore quarterback Bryan Schor. Through his first three starts, Schor has proved himself capable at piloting the Dukes’ offense. Even in the loss to the College of William & Mary, JMU was up 41-37 heading into the game’s final minute before a late touchdown run reversed the outcome. The offense may not be producing at the same clip it was with redshirt senior Vad Lee at the helm, but Schor is doing his thing and helping to put the Dukes in position to win games.

JMUSB: I guess Bryan Schor would be the name that first jumps out, but choosing the QB seems like a bit of cop out. I'm pretty confident he'll continue to take care of the ball and will make the plays he needs to when given the opportunity. For me the most critical thing is that his lineman give him protection he needs when passing and open up holes for the running game. So I could choose one particular lineman, but really I think it's the entire line as a unit that will dictate the outcome of this game. If JMU's offensive line dominates the line of scrimmage, the playmakers will take care of the rest.

DG:   I’m going to go with junior wide receiver Brandon Ravenel. Colgate’s weakness on both sides of the ball is the passing attack. The Raiders defense ranks 102nd in among FCS teams in passing yards allowed per game, and they’ve been particularly susceptible to the dink-and-dunk. They don’t allow the yards per play that the other teams dredging in the bottom of the FCS do, but a look at the sheer number of completions they give up makes it seem like they’ll give Ravenel and Bryan Schor plenty of room to work with. Ravenel has two options. He can take the space they give him and make them pay with first down after first down, or he can buck the trend with his big-play ability. I’d expect the former, but regardless, if JMU’s offense puts up 40+ once again, it wouldn’t surprise me to see his numbers jump off the stat sheet.

LW: It’s a quarterback’s sport, so the answer is Bryan Schor. Putting that aside, the JMU defense needs to be sharp against Colgate’s run-first attack, so look for leading tackler Kyre Hawkins to have a big day.

CK: How about Taylor Reynolds? I don't have an official stat on this, but when the dude makes plays, JMU wins. It's pretty much that simple. If JMU can trust their DBs in single coverage, the defense can stack the box and win the line of scrimmage. If JMU gets exposed on the back end, though, it could be a long afternoon.

3. What does Colgate need to do to beat JMU?

WE: Run the ball well. The Raiders rank last in the seven-team Patriot League in pass offense with 190.8 passing yards per game. But led by junior quarterback Jake Melville’s 837 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, Colgate has the Patriot League’s top-ranked rush attack with 196.8 rush yards per game. Meanwhile, JMU gives up an average of 184.4 rushing yards per game, which is eighth out of 12 teams in the CAA. 

Colgate has multiple other run threats besides Melville too. Senior running back Demetrius Russell has 544 yards and six touchdowns, sophomore running back James Holland has 532 yards and a team-high 13 touchdowns and junior running back John Wilkins has 448 yards and three touchdowns. JMU gave up a season-high 321 rushing yards to Villanova in the regular season finale, so the Dukes will be looking to rebound against the Raiders.

JMUSB: Run the ball effectively. Colgate doesn't want to get into a track meet with the Dukes. The Raiders can't match JMU's athleticism and aren't built to win a shootout in the air. Their strength is running the ball. JMU struggles stopping the run and has a bad habit of letting poor tackling turn 3 yard gains into long TD runs. Colgate can win if it moves the ball on the ground and has a few clock eating touchdown drives. 

DG:   Trigger warning -- if things go Colgate’s way, this could be a Jacobi Green situation all over again. The Raiders run the ball a lot, and they have a bunch of different people to run it with. Richmond showed the world what happens when the Dukes can’t control a runner. Don’t think Colgate hasn’t watched clips from that game over and over.

LW: Beat up the Dukes' front-7 and run the ball down their throats. I can’t pretend I’ve been watching Colgate games, but judging from James Hollande’s 4 TD runs in their win over UNH, it looks like they might have the team to do it.  

CK: Every coach I've talked to this season talks about running the ball effectively and winning the Time of Possession game against JMU. That's important, but I think the precursor to that is recognizing the holes in the short passing defense and exposing them. Because of JMU's defensive scheme, there are easy holes underneath that quarterbacks can find and unload into on almost every play. Quarterbacks who are confident in their ability to locate those holes on 3rd and 5 can keep their offense on the field, draw the Dukes' linebackers back into coverage, and spread the defense too thin, effectively setting up a winning ball-control strategy. So running the ball is key, but when you're playing JMU, you've got to pass to set up the run.

4. How far could JMU realistically go in the playoffs? What's the ceiling for this year's team?

WE: I could see JMU stringing together a couple of strong performances and making it as far as the semifinals. The Dukes’ offense is still potent and can still outscore teams. But a trip to the semifinals could mean a duel with the top seed in the bracket, a high-powered Jacksonville State University team. That would be too big of a hurdle this year.

JMUSB: Realistically, JMU could win the whole damn thing. I'm not sure how likely it is, and it's probably less likely than it would be if Vad were still playing, but the bracket sets up nicely for a run. All of the MVC teams are on the other side, as are Richmond and William & Mary. There are plenty of good teams remaining and no doubt, JMU could lose to any one of them. But JMU could also beat any of them. There is no clear cut favorite or single team that is heads and shoulders above the rest. If the Dukes win Saturday, they'd have a very winnable game against McNeese St or Sam Houston. At that point they'd be in the semifinals, playing with a ton of confidence, and anything could happen.

DG:  The 2003 Kansas City Chiefs, my favorite NFL team (don’t judge me), succeeded with two things. 1) They featured a stupidly powerful offense led by Priest Holmes, Trent Green and Tony Gonzalez. 2) The defense had one job -- just get the damn ball any way you can. Gamble on interceptions, and hit the other guy hard enough so that you can force fumbles (they had a +19 differential). Luck ran out for that team as soon as the playoffs hit... go figure. Maybe college football is a better avenue for a team like this to succeed. Maybe not. I’ll say a national championship appearance is the ceiling, but a title? I’m not going to be the one to predict that.

LW: With Vad, I thought JMU could go all the way. They might have been underdogs at times along the way, but the offense was so explosive that anything seemed possible. As impressive as Schor has been, it’s not enough for me to trust this defense once they’re playing top-tier offenses or forced to go on the road. I’ll take each game as it comes.

CK: It obviously depends on what kind of help JMU gets from other teams. I'm iffy about JMU playing McNeese State on the road; I definitely don't think they could survive a trip to Jacksonville without a huge defensive turnaround. But if upsets reign, and the Dukes draw some combination of Sam Houston State, Chatanooga, and/or the Citadel instead, anything truly could happen. Personally, I like them to advance to the quarterfinals before bowing out. It's not a National Championship, but with a season-ending injury to the star quarterback, it's not nothing, either.

5. Game prediction for Saturday?

WE: JMU 42, Colgate 35. Colgate could still have a solid day on the ground, but I think the rested JMU offense, which still leads the Football Championship Subdivision, will be too much for the Raiders at Bridgeforth Stadium.

JMUSB: Schor and the offense pick up the pace a bit, the defense tackles better, and the Dukes' athleticism eventually is too much for Colgate to handle. JMU 38 - Colgate 24.

DG:    Colgate 17:38 JMU. Chase would be pissed if I didn't make some sort of stupid musical reference before the end.

LW: The Dukes versus toothpaste? Gimme the Dukes all day! 30-20.

CK: Give me the Dukes big. I may be a naysayer for the big picture, but I think Colgate is out of steam. Beating New Hampshire in Durham is one thing; beating a rested JMU at (hopefully) sold-out BFS is another matter altogether. Dukes, 42-20.

Monday, November 16, 2015

Rumors of their Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated: Some Thoughts on WVU vs JMU, and more

Don't you just love that mid-November sports saturation? That mythical weekend where Friday basketball flows into Saturday college football? And then there's NFL Sunday? And then on Monday, there's... more basketball?

November has historically been one of my favorite sports months for all of the obvious reasons. And there's been so much shit going on lately that I had to put down my legal pad and pen, set aside my storyboards, and poke my head out of my self-imposed sports sabbatical. I mean, have you heard some of the shit you cretins spout out of your face-holes when I'm not writing on this blog? Good grief.

It's time to fall back in line, hooligans.

JMU Football:

I'd like to start with this, because... WHAT?

Seriously? Who started this? Because this is why we can't have nice things.

Lobbying to fire a head coach after he loses two games to ranked opponents, even when it's in a defensively atrocious fashion, is why players and media types laugh at fans. Etymologically, they might be the same, but a fan and a fanatic have two completely separate connotations. Don't be a fanatic. Don't be an asshole. Be a hard-nosed, passionate, still-sensible fan.

Right. On to the Dukes. Look, I'm not going to lie to you. I'm pretty sure I've sold my stock in "JMU, the National Title Contender." My good friend Taylor Mickelberry, proud Double-Duke and current Illinois resident, was oh-so-happy to inform me back in early October that he had already bought tickets to Frisco. Taylor, as I sometimes tell his girlfriend, is a lunatic.

So save your money. Don't buy train tickets to Texas for January, even if you're thinking that the Valley gets a tid bit nippley after New Years. Don't hold your breath. Don't light candles after church. JMU is not winning it all without Lee. Etch it in stone. It's done.

But it doesn't mean that the program isn't on the upswing. Everett Withers made the playoffs in Year 1. He's still got a very real shot at the program's first playoff win since 2011. He's all but locked up the first set of consecutive playoff appearances since 07-08. But even at 9-2, I'm not convinced JMU can back into a playoff seed without some miraculous help from around the nation. So let's focus on what is going to become a theme for this blog post: obtainable goals.

JMU needs to beat Villanova, lobby for a home playoff matchup, and win a post-season game in Harrisonburg for the first time in seven years.

If the Dukes can accomplish those three things, they'll have dialed the clocks back to 2008. The season will have been an unmitigated success. And from there... can't anything happen?

WVU Football: 

As October was wrapping up, you'd be excused if you had no idea what West Virginia's record was, or whether or not they were any good. They were 3-4, including an 0-4 October performance in Big 12 play, and hadn't won a game since scalping a dreadful Maryland squad back in September by a score of 45-6.

What was the Mountaineers' October slate of games? @Oklahoma. Vs Oklahoma State. @Baylor. @TCU.

So, yeah, they went 0-4. Three road games against Top 15 teams, plus a home matchup with what could potentially be the Big 12-winning Cowboys. That OSU game, by the way, ended up going to overtime. Was I in Morgantown that day? Of course I was . THE CURSE OF MY FANHOOD. IT'S REAL.

By the time the blowout in Waco went final, Mountaineer fans were done. Fire Dana! Buy out Rich Rod! Bring in someone that can win three road games, each one 2,000 miles away, in four weeks! What are we doing?

Isn't it time to check our expectations at the door? West Virginia fans have had a few years now to adjust to the Big 12, and if one thing is clear, it's that the Wild Wild West is definitely not the Mild Mild (Big) East. Some years, even with a great defense and a strong running game, West Virginia just won't have the tools to win the title. Living in reality isn't lowering your expectations -- it's being a responsible fan.

And yes, West Virginia does have a solid defense and a strong running game. Even without All-American Karl Joseph -- who I still think get's drafted before Day 3 despite the season-ending injury, by the way -- the Mountaineer D has looked like one of the best units this program has fielded in my lifetime. Meanwhile, Smallwood is climbing draft boards, and the offense is averaging 225 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 18th in FBS football. It also ranks as the No. 1 reason West Virginia nearly doubled up Texas over the weekend, 38-20. Did you ever think you'd see the day where a Holgorsen-coached quarterback only threw the ball 12 times?

West Virginia (5-4) closes its regular season schedule with home games against Kansas and Iowa State, along with a road tilt in the Little Apple with Kansas State. I'm inclined to make the argument that these are the three worst teams in the conference. So pitch your fuss if you'd like, but after all the October wining, the Mountaineers are positioned to have a shot at a 9-4 season. With the team's best player gone and an average quarterback under center, that's nothing to sneeze at.

Men's Basketball: JMU vs West Virginia (Monday, 7:00pm @Charleston Civic Center)

JMU fans will probably point to the fact that this is hardly a neutral site, being in Charleston. West Virginia fans would probably argue back, noting that setting the game a stone's throw from Huntington would make it Marshall territory more than anything else. More importantly, the Civic Center hasn't exactly been a bastion of great basketball for the Mountaineers over the years -- a number of foul-laden rock fights with the aforementioned Thundering Herd come to mind.

So, hey, JMU fans. Listen. I'm in your corner here. The Dukes went to Richmond and beat the hated Spiders, and that feels like a big, emotional win. And it is! It's even true that there's more than just emotion behind the win; there's some solid numbers to back up how great JMU played. We could start with the fact that, even without its best post player, Madison smacked Richmond on the boards.

That's great. Really! It's early, but I'm thinking JMU could contend for a conference title, and maybe even a sneaky NCAA upset this year. This squad ticks all the boxes -- inside-out play, a strong ball handler (Curry), a grindy post-player (Dalembert), and a dangerous X-factor (take your pick -- Brown, Kent, Cabarkapa). I believe it could be a special year.

So please also believe me when I tell you that West Virginia is going to obliterate JMU tonight.

This whole #PressVirginia thing? It's not a joke. They're going to be so far inside Curry's personal space, they might walk off the court with intimate knowledge of his love life and ATM balance. With Dalembert out, West Virginia is going to smash the boards so hard, I expect players to be picking glass out of their skin during the post-game press conference. Do you see what I'm getting at here? It's not going to be pretty.

It's just not a good matchup, folks. West Virginia has a big frontcourt, and they foul a lot during their press. JMU does not handle a press well, does not shoot well from the stripe, and is missing its best frontcourt player. Sometimes, it's that simple.

Best of luck to both teams tonight. My only rooting interest is that both teams end the game still healthy.

And if you insist on being that guy? The guy who makes me choose a team? Well, I guess you've got some reading to do.

Friday, September 11, 2015

The Value of Struggle: On My Friend, Alison Parker

It’s 6:58pm on a Thursday night, and we are, very literally, a couple of minutes away from an hour-long budget meeting. Fifteen of us are uneasily rocking back and forth in our rolling chairs in the bleakly dank basement of Anthony-Seeger Hall, just a few feet back from South Main Street in Harrisonburg, Virginia. As college journalists, this is our proud, outdated home, where we gather four times a week for not enough money and not enough recognition. Our budget meeting – a biweekly gathering to discuss the litany of section stories the editorial staff has lined up – is going way longer than usual. On this particular evening, you can chalk that up to Torie, our editor-in-chief, who is eviscerating our story ideas, one after another, like neatly lined paper lambs to the slaughter. Torie’s just doing her job – the more scrutiny a story idea undergoes, the better it’s likely to turn out, of course – but that hard reality doesn’t make this particular night any less agonizing.

Saturday, August 22, 2015

10 Things: The 14-day College Football Countdown (PS, I'm Writing a Book!)

We've hit the 14-day countdown mark for college football season, which means it's time for me to start wordsmithing some sports news and analysis once again. I'm pumped, and I hope you guys are too. But first, some news of my own to share.

As many of you know, I've had my hand in various projects over the last three years. From contributions to the new Massanutten Magazine to winning Regional Sports Columnist of the Year for my work with the Breeze, I'm extremely proud of how the last four years have played out. I've devoted a tonnage of hours to writing and developing important thoughts about not just sports, but larger, headier topics that I feel are important for us to poke and prod at. I like to tell myself that I've elevated the level of discourse around me, even if it's only by one tenth of 1 percent, and I'm so thankful for the loyalty that many of you have shown me as readers.

With all that being said, I haven't devoted time, brainpower, or other resources to any project ever like I have my upcoming book. Many of you have heard me make reference to it, or even seen me drop a mysterious acronym -- DCC -- from time to time. And today, I'm ready to announce, to at least you lot, the title and scope of that project.

It's called Drunk_Couch_Confessions, and you can find my own little marketing project over at I've got another blog of my own over there, and... well, suffice it to say that it's nothing like this one. Throughout the coming weeks, you'll find short stories, news briefs, some creative non-fiction prose, and, eventually, excerpts from the book itself.

What's the book about? Well, its influences are all over the place, ranging from Rachel Carson to Dave Barry to Stephen Colbert to Hunter S. Thompson. It's an anthology of people, places, and events I encountered from 2009-2015 during my time at JMU. In some ways, it's similar to Tucker Max's cult hit, I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell. But there's a lot more substance here than you might think, so, quite literally, don't judge a book by its cover. There will be stories of keg-tapping and team-fapping aplenty, but at its core, it's a collection of investigations. Why do 18-year olds go to college? What is there to gain, besides learning how to write research papers and memorizing the phylogenic tree? What are the differences between the Millennial generation and Generation X? And why is it all so god-damn expensive?

I might not have all the answers to these questions, but I do plan on being the one who asks them in the most intriguing and engaging format. That's what I've been working on over the last three years. And I hope you'll continue to be a part of that.

Okay, enough of that. Let's talk college football.

1. If  it's true you've got to start each season with the National Champion, then we'd better start with Ohio State. You can read all of the analysis you want of the Buckeyes, but their season boils down to a November 21 date with Michigan State. Since Virginia Tech doesn't have the offense to match OSU regardless of Buckeye suspensions, and the Harbaugh-led Wolverines are probably a year or two away from being threatening, can Michigan State spoil what is probably an otherwise perfect season?

I don't know. I try to avoid major predictions on big games until I've at least seen some of the season, but it's bound to be a gritty game that won't be decided until late in the second half. And the Buckeyes had better pray they pull it out, because the Big 10 is shallower than a baby pool this year. One misstep against any team during the regular season, and it'll be curtains for Meyer's repeat performance.

2. How about the conferences who have a virtually guaranteed spot in the second playoff? The Pac-12 and SEC champions would have to get completely mauled to miss out on a bid. Instead, the hottest debate this off-season has been which conference has the toughest subdivision in college football. The SEC West has been loaded in previous years, though for my money, never quite as loaded as you think. This year, it'll feature a great Auburn team, a better-than-most Alabama team, and... Arkansas? The Mississippi schools are overrated -- Ole Miss might as well trot a 1960s AFL offense out on the field -- and LSU hasn't been a Top 10 team in a few years now. All these defenses are wildly susceptible to Spread offenses, which is why I'll stake my cash on the Pac-12 South this year. USC should compete for a playoff spot, with Arizona, UCLA, Stanford, Utah, and maybe even Arizona State vying for a national ranking.

3. Speaking of the Pac-12 South, check out this video of West Virginia anti-hero and current Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez canceling practice. I guess you could say they were happy about the day off. (And while we're talking about Arizona, shout-out to friend of the blog Kenzie Kleespies, who just transferred from JMU to play Volleyball for the Wildcats.)

4. Who's going to replace Mike Schikman as the play-by-play man for JMU? That's been the most frequently asked question about JMU athletics over the past year. (Well, other than you-know-what.)

Well, I was scrolling through my Facebook News yesterday, and good ole Curt Dudley had linked to this new page on JMU Athletics. Debate answered. Welcome to the team, Dave Thomas! Great nomination from Lord Jeffrey Bourne.

5. James Madison is no stranger to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory these past few years, so it's hard to say this with a straight face, but... Could JMU really be 7-0 coming into a homecoming matchup with the Richmond Ticks? After the annual opening salvo of cupcakes, Madison draws FBS Southern Methodist in Texas on September 26. JMU hasn't won an FBS game since 21-16, but SMU has a first-year head coach. And what's that, you say? Why do they have a first-year head coach? Because SMU was a god-awful football team last year, and they played so poorly that pretty much their whole staff got fired.

The Dukes will line up for SMU's fourth match of the season. The Mustangs will be sporting a minimum of two losses, because they play Big 12 favorites Baylor and TCU in Weeks 1 and 3, respectively. So who's in between in Week 2? The Mustangs -- currently ranked 113 of 128 in ESPN's Football Power Index Rankings -- draw North Texas on September 12. The outcome of that game could hint at JMU's odds at winning down on the plains.

6. I know I trashed the Big 10 earlier, but I'm not sure the ACC has much of a margin for error for this playoff system, either. It's fairly easy to make the argument that Florida State got into the inaugural CFP playoff last year thanks to its momentum from 2013. With the core of that Seminoles team departed for the NFL, they're unlikely to carry the same favor. And Clemson? They've always been good under Dabo, but never quite good enough to take seriously. If Ohio State loses and the ACC is flat, who's getting in? One or the other? Two Big 12 teams? I honestly don't know. But because it's grounded in reality with real consequences, the Big 10 vs ACC elimination concept is a much more interesting debate than trying to parse conference subdivisions.

7. Earlier this month, Clemson football players signed off of Twitter yet again for the 5-month college football season, camp to bowl game. This has been happening for years now at Clemson, and they're not even the only school that does this. I'm torn on how I should feel about this. On the one hand, college athletes consistently show bad judgement on social media, broadcasting thoughts or engaging in arguments that are damaging to their own reputation as well as their schools. From a coach's perspective, I totally get how this is a blessing for your program. It's a big chunk of bullshit that you won't have to deal with.

On the other hand... shouldn't student-athletes eschew blanket bans in favor of learning how to temper one's actions or deal with every-day adult distractions?

8. Does Jimbo Fisher get enough respect? An interesting piece on cites anonymous opinions from peer coaches who give their candid thoughts on him. He's an elite recruiter with a couple conference championships and a National Title on his resume, and that's only over the last five years. I can't name five better coaches than him right now. So why does it feel like he's undervalued as a commodity?

9. It's interesting to think about how the Commonwealth Cup might get someone fired this year. UVA-Tech doesn't exactly bubble to the surface as a top-tier rivalry in the overall world of college athletics, but it's certainly still taken very seriously here in Virginia, despite the hard times both programs have fallen on. Mike London fielded a good defense last season, but the offense was abysmal. I'm not dialed into the UVA program like I probably should be, but I have to imagine he's on an ever-warming seat.

On the other hand, Frank Beamer's squad in Blacksburg has been on a steady decline for a few years now. If Tech cedes the Cup to the Cavaliers this year, I think Beamer's own pattern of dominance over his archrival could spell his own doom.

10. West Virginia was picked to finish in the middle of the Big 12 pack this year, and you know what? I get it. Major departures in the wide receiver core, along with a couple of key offensive linemen, have left this team without its star power for 2015. But for the first time in several years, West Virginia might have a legit defense to rely on. The leading man in Defensive Coordinator Tony Gibson's club is Karl Joseph, who will probably be an All-American this year. Check out his Junior Hits compilation, and also this personal favorite, appropriately called "Karl Joseph Kills a man in Texas." I get sore just watching some of this stuff.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

#CAAhoops Primer: JMU Postures for Regular Season Championship tonight at UNC-Wilmington

The last time I posted on here, JMU Men's Basketball was 13-9 and a few hours away from getting shellacked, 84-65, by Marcus Thornton and the Pantless Gryphons.

But today, things are different. The Dukes have endured February brilliantly, posting a 5-1 record this month with two games left in the regular season. More importantly, they genuinely look like a better team every time they step on the court. Matt Brady has the boys cooking. They haven't lost a game in three weeks. And they're staring down the biggest men's basketball game in two years.

Yep. Today's the day. UNC-Wilmington hosts the JMU Dukes tonight. Here's what you need to know.

Once again, the CAA is a clusterf... well, you know.

Every year, it feels like the Colonial Athletic Association has a pair of teams vying for the title right down to the final week. But this year takes that narrative to a whole new level. Four teams -- Northeastern, William & Mary, Wilmington, and the aforementioned Dukes -- have identical first-place 11-5 records. According to Yeager and the boys in the CAA office, that officially makes the CAA the "most competitive regular-season race in the nation." Is this conference ever not fun?

Anyway, there's a lot at stake in the mid-week games. Of the four first-place teams, tonight's contest in Wilmington is the last time any of the four will play either of the other three teams, at least until a potential matchup in the CAA tournament. In fact, with the exception of JMU's Saturday game against Hofstra, there are no regular season games left where one of the first-place teams will play an opponent with a record over .500.

Translation: if someone is going to drop a game, it's going to mean choking on their own vomit harder than Krysten Ritter did in Breaking Bad.

JMU is on the verge of its first conference title in 15 years.

I touched on this briefly in the last Consortium, but JMU hasn't won at least a share of the CAA title since the 1999-2000 season, AKA the last good season before the arrival of one Matthew Crenshaw Brady. (Editor's Note: Matt Brady's middle name is definitely not Crenshaw.) If they win out, they'll have earned a piece of it, even though they would probably play as only the No. 3 seed in Baltimore next weekend.

Matt Brady can lock up his fourth 20-win season as head coach in Harrisonburg.

Again, I touched on this during the last Consortium post with Proffitt, Carleigh, and JMUSB, but Matt Brady has survived this long in Harrisonburg by racking up 20-win seasons every other year. Normally, he needs the postseason tournaments to finish out. This year, with a big win tonight at Trask and a win at home over the Pride on Saturday, Brady will hit the mark before even looking at Baltimore-bound Greyhounds.

The more things change, the more they stay the same:

A stat I pointed out during the last post: JMU was 6-0 against the teams below them and 0-3 against the teams on their level. JMU is now primed to grab a part of the conference title, but has anything really changed? The Dukes are 11-5 in conference play, with 11 wins against the bottom six teams and 5 losses against the rest of the top four. If the Dukes want the championship, they're going to have to earn it tonight. They're going to have to beat someone that's actually good.

Big Play: 

Ron Curry is playing all-conference basketball, and his thumbprints on JMU's winning streak are hard to miss. But I would argue that it's the Bigs for JMU who are elevating the team's game to championship levels. Tom Vodonavich is finally settling into his role as a glass-crasher, and Dalembert's game continues to look more and more polished. If they combine for 15 rebounds or more, watch out.

But it's not just those two guys. Paulius Satkus is playing better minutes down the stretch as well, Jackson Kent is averaging nearly four boards a game, and Dimitrije! The Serb! My Lord. You know what? Serb gets his own bullet point.

It's spelled C-A-B-A-R-K-A-P-A.

Back when I was at the Breeze, we ran a feature in one of our Sports Supplements about a bigass Eastern European dude who had just showed up in Harrisonburg to ball for Brady. We didn't even attempt to pronounce his name correctly; we just called him Serb. He rolled with it. In fact, he was one the coolest and most down-to-Earth people I ever met at JMU. The fact that he was a full foot taller than me was just happen-stance.

Serb is my fucking hero. The dude is a monster. I prayed every game that Brady would just cut him loose and let him out there to posterize some poor guard from Philadelphia or Trenton. But the word I kept getting from the team and guys around them was that his game was just way too raw to ever put him out on the floor. He was an offensive liability.


Yeah. I'm kind of a fan.

Closing Time:

JMU is 16-0 when leading with five minutes to play, per tireless JMU ambassador and FOTB Curtis Finnigan Dudley. (Editor's Note: Curt Dudley's middle name is definitely not Finnigan.)

Draw a straight line to Ron Curry for this one. Strong ball distribution and ball security from Curry and Co. is a huge factor in the Dukes' new-found ability to actually close games out, which is definitely something that hasn't historically been a strength. When Wilmington breaks out the press tonight, all eyes will be on the guards -- but mainly Curry -- to maintain possession of the ball.

Baltimore or Bust?

JMU is the hottest team in the conference right now, and for sheer streakiness alone, should probably be considered the favorite to win the CAA tournament. A win tonight keeps them on pace for one of the top three seeds there.

But let's hold off on the Baltimore chatter for just a few more days. JMU has as good a shot as anyone as lifting the CAA trophy in the harbor and reaching its second NCAA tournament in three years. That would be huge, and it would validate 2013 as not just lightning in a bottle, but a distinctive upward trend for Brady's program after seven erratically dichotic years.

But for now, focus on what's right in front of the Dukes: a shot at the CAA regular season title. It's been 15 years since the JMU men could claim a portion of that banner. Isn't it about time?