Our panelists today -- Stephen Proffitt, in his fourth year of beat-writing on JMU MBB; Carleigh Davis, former Sports Editor at the Breeze and noted Matt Brady critic; Rob, from JMU Sports Blog; and myself. Make the appropriate follows on Twitter, if you don't already.
1. Over the course of the last three games, we've seen the Dukes get blown out, stage a crazy comeback, and win an improbable Shootout. There's been 60 minutes of pretty mediocre basketball (most of the game in boston, plus the first half vs Hofstra) and 60 minutes of top-level CAA hoops (the spectacular Hofstra comeback, plus hot shooting vs Delaware). So which team is JMU -- the team that can never seem to play up to its potential, or a legit contender in the Colonial?
Stephen Proffitt: The Dukes are a legit contender in the conference. If you had told me, or anyone that at the halfway point in conference play, JMU would be tied for third place **without** Andre Nation, it may be hard to believe. Obviously only time will tell if this reigns true, but I’m starting to buy it. With a handful of home games remaining where they’ve been good and only a few single game road trips left, they’re set up for success. I’ll go out on a limb too following Wednesday’s shootout with Delaware that they’re slowly becoming a second half team too.
JMU Sports Blog: Can we say neither? The truth is it's probably somewhere in the middle. I think we have seen that the team can play up to its potential, the thing that's missing is seeing them do it for a full 40 minutes. Since the time of Andre Nation's exit, we've seen the roster become a bit more cohesive. Ron Curry has made it his team and his teammates are starting to find their own unique roles. We'll still need to see more before we consider the Dukes a legit contender, but for the first time all year we're seeing signs that they could round into form and evolve into a contender before CAA Tourney time.
Carleigh Davis: Without Nation¹s attitude and team membership issues clouding the team,
I think that this JMU squad has the potential to be a legit contender. While they aren't consistent, they obviously have the talent to make some decent plays and work with each other. Cohesiveness and teamwork has been an obvious struggle for this team over the past few years and I think steps are finally being taken towards addressing it. I highly doubt we'll lead W&M by a substantial amount, but I think we could win it. This team has drive that is finally coming through. I don¹t know where it came from, but I hope it stays.
Chase Kiddy: I lean toward the first option of not living up to what they're capable of, but only because of a near-impossible set of circumstances. JMU has some nice pieces this year, and the squad shows improvement every single game. They’re learning, but sometimes I think we forget just how young this team still is.
Look, just throw the Delaware out, because you won’t see JMU
throw an 88 up on the board for about 10 more years. It’s just not how they’re
built. As for Hofstra, I give Brady and his kids all the credit in the world
for playing a stellar defensive half on the road. JMU hasn’t played
particularly well outside of the Convocation Center under Brady – even during
the CAA championship year, the Delaware alley-oop and beating an awful UNCW
team are the only road wins I can remember – so it was refreshing to see them grind
out a truly impressive road win. It could signal bright days ahead for the
Dukes.
But another way of looking at this JMU team is that they’re
middling. They’re 6-0 against teams currently slotted below them in conference
play, and 0-3 against the top three teams. JMU hasn’t played Wilmington at all
yet, and they’ve got a chance to make a splash today in Harrisonburg vs the
Tribe. But until they beat one of the bullies on the block this year and firmly
insert themselves into the CAA race, they’re underachieving, at least a tiny bit.
2. JMU is currently 13-9. How would you grade Matt Brady's job this season thus far, and what do you need to see to consider this a successful season?
SP: For me with Brady, the grade comes in the CAA tournament. They need to do well. The regular season counts, but I want to see what they can do with back to back games throughout the course of a weekend. In 2013, everything came to fruition, but then last year we saw yet another one and out. I’ll say they need to get to at least Sunday (semifinals) this year for me to be impressed.
JMUSB: Despite what the more panic stricken segment of the fanbase says, we actually think Brady's done a good job thus far. Critics might say that he should have jettisoned Nation sooner, but we can't fault the guy for trying to work with a player who was talented but immature. And it says a lot about Brady that he was willing to part ways with the most talented guy on the roster. Brady's substitution patterns still are tough to figure out, but we like the way he's implemented more zone and pressure D. It really seems like he knows that in a one bid league like the CAA is, it's really all about working out the kinks and getting your team to peak in March. He'll be judged by how things go from here on out, but the fact is that despite replacing 3 starters from last year's team (Cooke, Bessick, and Nation) the team has already equaled its CAA win total from last year at the midpoint. That's gotta be good for a solid B grade, no?
CD: This is always the question that gets me in trouble each and every time. If you need a reference, I wrote an article back in October about his lack of discipline and respect from himself and the team he coaches. While one small step has been made in addressing this, I don't believe Brady is where he should be. I will, however, give him the credit he is due. JMU is currently a 13-9 team, which is not a terrible spot to be at the end of January. While I think that Brady's coaching needs consistent critiquing, I think an honest C+ is due here. If Brady can keep his team down this path of success, I might be persuaded to give him a full letter grade raise at the end of the season.
CK: I think a fourth 20-win season for Brady is the best-case scenario right now. More realistically, I'd like to see JMU finish with at least 17-18 wins, along with a first-round win in the CAA tournament. This season was supposed to be the year where 2-3 seasons of building and recruiting finally came together. Instead, Bessick and Cooke transferred, and Nation was removed from the team. Now, it's now about building momentum toward next year and creating some positive CAA tournament experiences that will position the Dukes well for 2015-2016.
As for the 20 wins mark -- four more wins at home, plus a split of the final four road games against pretty average competition, puts JMU at 19 going into the CAA tournament -- that’s a nice round number that will keep fans excited and aid in recruiting. Maybe most importantly, Brady’s habit of intertwining 20-win seasons into his JMU coaching career gives him some legitimacy as a coach, and keeps the “Fire Brady” crowd at bay.
(Quick side tangent: in the context of JMU, four 20-win seasons in seven years is highly impressive. You'd have to go back a lot of years to piece together the last four 20-win seasons the program has seen -- there were three consecutive 20-win seasons from 1991-1994. Then, you skip up to the 99-00 season, the last really successful season before Brady's arrival in 2008. So basically, JMU had four 20-win seasons in the 18 years before Brady, and could now have its fourth in seven years under him. Can we give this guy a break?)
As for this season’s grade, I’ll give him a B. Brady should
probably be criticized for his overall handling of the Nation situation, but if
you’re gonna knock him for how & when he dumped Andre, you’ve definitely
got to give him credit for motivating the team to play so well in the wake of
losing its most talented player. JMU is one game out of first place at the end
of January, with three critical games left to play. Even if it’s unlikely, the
Dukes are in position to win now. That’s gotta be good enough, right?
3. Besides Ron Curry, which player is most critical to JMU's success on the court for the remainder of the season?
SP: Yohanny Dalembert hands down. The big man has had a tremendous season thus far averaging 11 points and five boards a game. He’s more patient down low, he’s more aggressive down low and most of all, he’s more mature down low. An offensive outburst in Wednesday’s second half makes me say Yohanny Dalembert is critical to JMU’s success.
JMUSB: Yoyo has the highest ceiling, but Jackson Kent's play might be more critical. At this point, it's probably safe to say that Dalembert is going to consistently score in double figures and pull down 6+ boards most nights. Those sorts of things are obviously important. Jackson Kent has been so up and down however, that his ability to elevate his game consistently might be a bigger factor. Kent is a solid ballplayer with a high basketball IQ. If he can play with confidence and knock down shots from long range, it will open up plenty of opportunities for his teammates. The Dukes need a guy who can carry the scoring load night in and night out with Curry and Yoyo. Kent is best suited to do it.
CD: Jackson Kent. 100%, hands down. He¹s averaging 10.9 points per game, has been a consistent starter for the Dukes, and plays excellently both defensively and offensively. He¹s been a strength in this program for the past two seasons despite the rest of the team facing so much adversity. I think he¹s an under appreciated and under recognized part of this team and I think his consistency will be critical to the remainder of JMU¹s season.
CK: Every time I do one of these collaborations, I ask a “Which player…?” question, and I think to myself that there’s no way people are going to land on my guy. And, every time... well, it seems like we all pick my guy. This time is no different. I thought I had Jackson Kent locked down. No surprise – everyone picked ya boy JK.
Let’s get this out of the way first, because it needs to be
said. There are times when Jackson Kent doesn’t wear his frame very maturely, and he
looks like a 14-year old trying to ask a girl to Cotillion. I’ve never seen a
six-foot kid look so incredibly young. (Maybe I’m just mad about losing my
hair.) But Kent is a smart kid who plays good defense and doesn’t make a lot of
mistakes on the court. More importantly, his hot hand can pace JMU’s oft score-challenged offense. Even when JMU plays lockdown defense, you’re gonna
need someone to carry the load offensively. When Curry is having an off night,
or Dalembert is being double-teamed, Kent can be the second scoring option that
spaces the floor and gets the Dukes enough points to win.
4. What odds do you give JMU for a Top-2 finish in CAA regular season play?
SP: Damnit, Kiddy. I hate odds questions. I’ll go with 50 percent because that’s a safe bet. I’ve
always loved the CAA because it’s never about one team dominating. The convoluted tiebreaker
scenarios always persist in to the last weekend of CAA play. With W&M, UNCW, Northeastern and
JMU all in contention for the top spot, anything can happen and I’m not sure what I say will make a
huge difference. As of right now, the Dukes have matchups with all of these schools beside
Northeastern. It’ll come down to games like February 25 in Wilmington to decide this. I do think they
can be top-2 though.
JMUSB: Right now, probably about 35%. And that's just going off the fact that W&M handled the Dukes last time and they still have 2 to play against UNCW. A big win against the Tribe will change everything. And if it's followed up with a win over the Seahawks, things might bump up to the 70-75% range.
CD: JMU has lost to all three of the current leaders of the conference. The team directly behind JMU is Hofstra, and we beat them by a measly six points. I would like to see some more conference wins under the Dukes' belt before drafting a percentage for a top-2 finish. At this point, I'm thinking around 20%. For once in my four years here, I may or may not believe in this team succeeding.
CK: 10%.
I’m not convinced UNC-Wilmington is anything special, but Northeastern and
William & Mary are the two best teams in the conference. They’re the ones
who will grab the 1-2 finishes, and JMU will have to fight it out with Hofstra
and Wilmington for third place.
5. Who ya got today -- The Dukes or the Tribe?
SP: W&M. Selfishly I’ve been waiting all season to watch Marcus Thornton in person. I truly
think his ruthlessness from the perimeter will prove too much for the JMU zone
defense. On Wednesday, the Dukes did break out of the zone for a while deep into the
second half and went to man defense. I think they’ll have to do this to have a chance to control
Thornton. I hope everyone remembers that shootout between Thornton and A.J. Davis.
JMUSB: Homer pick alert. We think JMU's foreign born scrappy guys got exposed last time they played the Tribe. Thornton's gonna do what Thornton's gonna do, but we think Vodanovich, Satkus, Cabarkapa, and Lukic will do a better job limiting Prewitt and Tarpey. Big games from Yoyo and Curry, plus some complementary scoring from Kent and JMU escapes with a 65-59 win. Go Dukes!
CD: I¹m going to choose Dukes here. It will by no means be a blowout, but I think we will stay neck-and-neck for most of the game and pull ahead after the under-4 timeout. If by some crazy miracle I¹m wrong and we blow William & Mary out of the water, I give everyone the right to ridicule me for the rest of the season. I might even give Brady a hug. That¹s if and only if there is a blowout. I¹m predicting a final score of JMU 73 W&M 69.
CK: Thornton has absolutely owned JMU over the course of his
career. For my money, AJ Davis is the only reason JMU even has any wins vs the College since Thornton's matriculation to Williamsburg. I don’t like it, but I’ll take the Tribe 71-62. Somebody please prove
me wrong.
