Early ATS Predictions: Primetime Games

The blog likes college football. It’s common knowledge. It’s so common, the cold wants its adjectival modifier back.

So when Las Vegas’ Golden Nugget Hotel and Casino came out with 100 early lines on some of the bigger games of the 2012 season earlier this week, I was obviously ecstatic. Going ATS is a personal favorite hobby of mine, so I’m here to go on record with a handful of the biggest games from this upcoming season.

September 1: Michigan at Alabama (-12)

 Alabama is losing a lot of defensive pieces; Michigan has a powerful offensive punch. This is the first game of the season and the Wolverines have a ramblin, scrambling, seasoned vet at quarterback. Michigan is going to keep it close regardless of whether or not they win. I’d take the points.

Pick: Michigan +12


September 22: Michigan @ Notre Dame (-1)
I guess this is what happens when Michigan is remotely relative… they pop up on all sorts of lists like this. This is the second of three times Michigan is going to pop up on this list, and just like last time, I’m going with the fighting James Howletts. Notre Dame is offensively overrated, even as head coach Brian Kelly is not, and loses key defensive playmakers from their pass rush. Meanwhile, Michigan is still on the uptick. This feels like a 7-9 point Michigan win to me, so the fact that you’re getting even one point here as an underdog makes it an easy choice for me.

Pick: Michigan +1. And give yourself an additional ten C4G points if you picked up on the Marvel reference.


October 6: LSU @ Florida (+7.5)

Home dogs are always something to consider, especially when you get outside of the one touchdown range… but I have a serious asterisk next to the University of Florida in the Post-Tebow era. LSU will have the premiere defense in the country next year, and I’m not even sure the swamp can deter them from winning a mildly challenging road game. LSU probably leads most of the game and tacks on a few extra points at the end to put this into double-digit territory.

Pick: LSU -7.5


Octotber 13: The Red River Rivalry (Oklahoma -6)

I’ve always thought this game was kind of overblown on the national scene. I realize they’re two of the “traditional powers” in college football, but Oklahoma is overrated EVERY year (I’m hypervigilant of the current Four Horsemen of Apocalyptic Overratedness: the aforementioned Florida, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech) and the Longhorns aren’t quite back to their historically typical everything’s-bigger-including-our-win-total level.

All that being said, Texas’ sprinkled on talent and offensive inadequacies won’t be enough to deter Oklahoma. They might be overrated, but they’ve still got enough in the tank to beat Texas pretty soundly.

Pick: Oklahoma -6


October 27: Notre Dame at Oklahoma (-12)

This is just a mash up of previous things I’ve said. Oklahoma is a touch overrated, but in a battle of horsemen, I’m taking the top 10 home team in a big way.

Pick: Oklahoma -12


November 3: Oregon at USC (-6)

This might be the toughest pick to make. It’s certainly not a game I would bet on blindly in real life, but I’ve gotta throw it up here because it’s probably a Pac-12 championship preview. I think Oregon’s speed could give SoCal some real problems, and it’ll surely be a great game to watch. But in LA, with Barkley at the helm playing against a lot of new pieces out of Eugene, I think I’ll take my chances with the newly unshackled Trojans.

Pick: USC -6


November 3: Alabama at LSU (-2)

Game of the Century part 3? National championship built-in rematch? Opportunity for millions of Louisianans to get drunk? Mindlessly boring defensive showcase? Glaringly obvious first-round draft pick showcase?

I don’t care what you call it. But after a 6-3 decision in GOTC Part 1, I’ll take the home team by a marginal spread.

Pick: LSU -2


November 24: Michigan @ Ohio St (+3)

This is one of those games where part of me wish that neither team could win. Alas, they took ties out of college football. My plight is unbearable.

I kind of hate both of these teams, but Ohio State is going to be a solid football team after a little Meyer-based tutelage. I like the Bucks to beat Michigan at home this year, so the three point cushion is an early Christmas present from my Las Vegas Santa Claus.

Pick: Ohio State +3

Later this weekend, I preview some of the easiest preseason bets to take, as well as some West Virginia home cooking. Check it out Saturday.