I say it every year- March is the greatest month of the year. Period. No sporting spectacle compares to the NCAA tournament. Not the Superbowl, bowl season, NBA/NHL finals, UEFA cup, World Cup, or Olympics. Nothing sweeps over America quite like March Madness.
Selection Sunday is tomorrow (stop by our Viewing Party if you happen to be in Harrisonburg for the Selection Show), but before the brackets are revealed... before we even know who all the autobids are, really, I'm going to make 10 predictions as to the nature of this year's bracket. Some may seem like common sense; some may seem rediculous. But I've watched enough basketball this season to really feel these in my gut, and now I'll be sharing them with you.
1. The Big East will surprise people. In what has been a "down year" for the reguarly dominant Big East, I think this conference is going to surprise people with what it does. While there isn't the talent at the top of the giant conference like there normally is, the middle of the pack from Georgetown to Seton Hall have all moved giant steps forward. (You may say 'Seton Hall, really??' but was the Hall even a fringe bubble candidate last year?)
If you want specifics, I predict two Big East teams will make the Elite Eight. At least one will seriously contend for the Final Four/National Championship.
2. The Big 10 will grab two final four spots. I have said all year that this is the year that the Big 10 has been the best conference. MSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Purdue have formed a core half of the conference who are capable of making deep runs in March. But it's not just quantity, it's quality- most of these teams have big physical bodies to go along with excellent guard play, and that inside-out play will enable the Big 10 to grab not just one but two spots in the national semi's.
3. The First Four will really, really suck. No one knew it at the time (and if someone says they did, they're lying) but last year's First Four ended up ripe with the intrigue of an actual National Championship contender. But it's not just that- the games were actually good. Fun to watch. Enjoyable. Don't expect the same treatment this year, with a historically weak bubble. Teams that are 8-10 in conference play are projected to make the final cut- and that's not even who will play in these games. When you're dealing with teams that are actually worse than the Big East's less than average, it's time to turn off the TV and grab the shotgun.
4. West Virginia will make the Sweet 16. Okay c'mon, by now you know I gotta stick a homer pick in here.
Fringe POY candidate Kevin Jones has absolutely carried this team through this calendar year, with Truck Bryant occassionally deciding to help out in big ways. Without him, this team is frighteningly bad. I expect Jones, fresh off a shocking Big East POY snub, to be locked in and focused on upsetting a couple of teams. The Mountaineers can go as far as the bracket allows them too- if they're a ten seed, they have a legit chance to win three games and get to the regional finals. If they're a eight/nine seed, I don't see them winning more than one game.
5. West Coast conferences will fall apart. Pac-12, MWC, and WCC- you are all on notice. I have no faith in your wildly inconsistent guards, and as the saying goes, guard play wins the games in March. I dont expect more than one or two teams from all three of these conferences to make the second weekend.
6. Another Cinderella will captivate America... Look, I have no idea who it's going to be, but with the wild parity in this year's season, it's safe to say that some off-the-beaten-path team is going to make some noise. Elite Eight. Final Four. I don't know. Maybe it's a more predictable team like Murray State (doubt it), Creighton (meh) or Wichita State (probably). Maybe it's a team that makes you google their University page just so you know where they're from (Belmont). Someone is gonna be that team this year.
7. ...But it won't be VCU. The Rams of Richmond had a run for the ages last year. Don't expect it to happen again. While Shaka's HAVOC pressure will return to the NCAA dance, that's about all that returns. Last year's magical run was largely based off a team that is as senior-heavy as senior gets, not to mention three-point shooting that would make Jerry West consider Prozac unnecessary (uhh... too soon?) Bottom line is that kind of combination of crazy luck and seniority is a once or twice in a generation type of thing. VCU is good and they'll probably even win a game. But realistically, I don't see them winning more than 2 games.
8. Syracuse won't make the Final Four. All year, as the Orange nearly ran the table, we said "wow, looks like they aren't the team they normally are.' Well, maybe they are. Every year, I think that there's no possible way that the Cuse can get beat in the BE/NCAA tourney and every year, they find a way to lose. This time, they managed to lose in the BE semifinals to unranked Cincinatti. I think the Bearcats are really good (Cronin deserved Coach of the Year over that guy from South Florida for sure) but better than Syracuse?
Judges Ruling? Helllll nah. Yeah, didn't think so.
Syracuse will once again find a way to drop a game in the second weekend of play despite their incredible depth. Farewell in advance, potential #1 overall seed.
9. Kentuck won't win the National Championship. Similar to my eighth prediction. Uhh... how many years has Calipari had the best class in the nation? Or a top ranked team? Or been a favorite to win the national championship? How many times has he done it? Yeah... that's kind of what I though.
Kentucky walks the walk during the regular season. They even win the SEC tournament, unlike Syracuse, who underperforms throughout the entire basketball postseason.
But Kentucky barely eeked out a win over Florida this weekend. Frankly, the team in Gainesville is crazy overrated. Kentucky might make a second straight final four, but they aren't gonna win the national championship this year.
Hey Calipari, can you hear those voices? No, you're not going crazy. They're just NBA GM's, and they're calling you. I'd pick up the phone.
10. The season will end where it started
with North Carolina playing Michigan State for the national title. Unlike on the aircraft carrier, the Spartans take the real prize. Anyone getting tired of rematches in National Championships this year?
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