Lots of great reader feedback from some new blog followers on last week's Sixth Man entry, so here we are again, previewing my Spurs' chances in the Western Conference Finals.
1. Which is more true?
A. The Spurs can win an NBA title with offense.
B. The Spurs' defensive shortcomings might be fatal.
It's A. Maybe this is my newly developed WVU-in-the-Big-12 mentality poking through where it doesn't belong, but you don't need to defend well when you can outscore everyone else. San Antonio had one of the highest scoring offenses in the Association back in the regular season, second only to the Denver Nuggests. There are too many scoring options- WAY too many- on this team for their defense to limit how high this team can achieve.
Is their defense as good as it was in heyday of the Tim Duncan era? Of course not. But it's not like they don't play any defense at all, either. The times, they are a changin. San Antonio will win this year behind a methodical approach on the other side of the ball.
2. Who means more to his team: James Harden or Manu Ginobili?
It's James Harden. I'm one to believe that Harden's Sixth Man Hardware, not to mention his midnight sonata with Metta World Mishaps' elbow, elevated him from a slightly underrated player to a drastically overhyped player who is talked about wayyyy too much these past few days. But the dude can still ball with the best of them, and he's a hugeplayer in this series for one main reason.
Manu is a nice deep threat and keys a lot of the spacing San Antonio uses to set up pick and roles and other aspects of their offense. But that's just the thing- he is one part of a dynamic offense that has so many other creaters and role-players. Oklahoma City's best two players are point-scoring dynamos, but other prominent team members (like Serge Ibaka) are more known for their defensive presence rather than their offensive abilities. Harden provides a go-to third guy for offense where no one else may exist. San Antonio doesn't have that problem.
3. How important is the difference in coaching experience?
I don't want to say what Popovich brings to the table is a non-factor... but it's basically a non-factor. Pops is probably the best coach in the NBA right now, but this game is chalk full of superstar players. Put ten guys on the hardwood and let em play. Coaching is only going to determine so much.
4. What's the key for OKC to win?
Russell Westbrook. Tony Parker called him about before the series- not in a brash, arrogant way but merely saying they needed to guard him because KD was gonna get his regardless of what they did. Westbrook, however, the Spurs feel they can stop. Or, equally as likely, the Spurs want him to think that they think they can stop him. Fun with jedi mind tricks, Tony parker is having.
If Westbrook plays well, doesn't create a sloppy mess, and makes good decisions on when to shoot himself vs when to distribute effectively, the Thunder are likely to control their turnovers and play efficiently. After that, it's a matter of using their youth as an advantage and tiring out Tim Duncan's beloved knees.
If, however, Westbrook tries to throw down the gauntlet and do too much (or too little, depending on how you want to look at it), he might become a turnover machine. Giving up extra possessions to a lethal offense like San Antonio is nothing but damning. The Thunder have to limit themselves to 14 turnovers or fewer per game. 15 or more, and they have a 0% chance of winning the series.
5. Who wins?
I've struggled with this pick evers since the beginning of the playoffs, because this series was inevitable.
Originally, I had the Thunder in 6. Then the Spurs in 7. Then the Spurs in 5. Then the Spurs in 6. Then the Thunder in 7. And now I just don't know.
But I'm going to say the Spurs in 6. As even as this series seems, I don't think the Thunder will win in San Antonio, at least initially. They may grab game 5 in a measure of desperation, especially if the Spurs pick up a game in OKC. But I think the Thunder's weaknesses play right into the Spurs' strengths, and though I think Kevin Durant is just an absolute monster on the court, I don't know where he will find the buckets around him to keep up with San Antonio's offense.
That of course gives me quite a dilemna- do I want to see my Spurs win the championship, or do I want to not hear another offeseason of whining and complaining and "see, I told you so's, Lebron James will never win a championship"'s.
Ah, who am I kidding. Let's go Spurs.
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