Earlier in the week, I made some predictions as to how some of the most important games of the season might fall. Often times, though, looking at spreads is a lot harder when there’s a lot on the line in a nationally televised game. So today, I recommend some less relevant games to look at for high-percentage ATS bets.
September 6- Pittsburgh at Cincinatti (-5)
So Pitt. Ugh. Most readers know I like the University of Pittsburgh somewhat similarly to how I like getting root canals, lobotomies, and prostate exams all at the same time. But even I know a good Pittsburgh-related bet when I see one.
Cincinatti has owned the Big East since Rich Rod’s departure from Morgantown, winning or sharing all but one of the titles since the 2008 season. So it’s not surprising to see them as a home favorite here early on in the season before individual team reputations can really get established. But the Bearcats lost Big East Offensive POY (RB Isaiah Pead) and Big East Co-Defensive POY (DT Derek Wolfe). Wolfe, along with other draft losses like JK Schaffer, were instrumental in stopping the run last year in all the UC games that I watched. Meanwhile, Pead was a major force of offense for the Cats.
That was then. Now, Cincinatti looks to reload and fix all their holes with young guys as Ray Graham and the Panthers roll in to town. Ray Graham probably would have gone on to win BE OPOY had he not gone down with a season-ending injury in the middle of the season.
So, what I’m seeing here is a really good runningback going up against a suddenly untested, young defense. Early on in the year, I’m taking the five points and my much maligned rivals in a game I believe Pittsburgh will win outright.
Pick: Pitt +5
September 8- Georgia at Missouri (+3)
Ouch. Welcome to the SEC.
Eastern favorite Georgia is gonna roll into town early on in week 2. Missouri hasn’t been relevant since ya boy Chase Daniel was hanging out. Three points isn’t nearly enough for Missouri to pull off an upset like this.
Pick: Georgia -3
September 14- Washington State at UNLV (+17.5)
Did WSU suddenly get really, really good when I wasn’t looking? Because if memory serves, the Cougs weren’t that close to something trivial like bowl eligibility last year, let alone a winning season. UNLV isn’t a worldbeater either, but I can’t really fathom State winning by over 17 points on the road.
Pick: UNLV +17.5
September 15- USC at Stanford (+7.5)
7.5 spreads are always dangerous, but USC is preseason #1 team in the land, and it seems Stanford has run out of Luck. I like the Trojans by double digits.
USC -7.5
September 8- Clemson at FSU (-8)
The ACC is the most overrated conference in America and has been for a long time (two BCS wins says it all). Hence why their conference champion can run through the conference like a hot knife through butter (okay, maybe a luke-warm knife…) and beat the second best team of the conference soundly, twice. I’m still offended this shitbucket of a conference got two BCS bids last year, and yeah, I want to take it out on someone or something. With all the Virginia Tech fans out of my sordid apartment, it looks like you, my lovely reader, are now the object of my aggression.
Clemson is going to get shit on this preseason. That’s a fact. The only thing people are going to see when they see Clemson Orange and that gay paw print in the number 70, and while part of me wants to beam with pride, another part of me feels kind of sorry for the Clemson fan base. They’re going to get disrespected a lot this year, and they still have a pretty good team.
(I still contend that the Orange Bowl was less about Clemson being overrated and more about WVU being underrated)
Can we get some respect for the champs up in here? The only team deserving of a 2011/2012 season BCS bid is not going to be a pushover, and I have 0 reason to believe in a Florida State team that takes a dump in their pants year after year after year. This is by far not the strongest bet on this page, but I’d still take it without question. Clemson wins outright, and I enjoy my eight point cushion.
Pick: Clemson +8
September 29- Arkansas at Texas A&M (+2.5)
Ahh yes, another welcome-to-the-SEC present, this time for the Aggies. Even in College Station, 2.5 points isn’t enough to overcome one of the premiere teams this upcoming season.
Arkansas -2.5
October 20- UNLV at Boise State (-35.5)
Again, UNLV pops up. I’m not saying they’re gonna be an epic team here or anything. But Boise is losing Kellen Moore, that rechargeable battery that has made the Broncos and their bedazzled field so near-invincible. Without him, and against a Boise team that is destined to have a comparatively down year, I am just logically obligated to take the five touchdowns being handed to me here.
Pick: UNLV +35.5
November 8- Florida State at Virginia Tech (-1)
This is basically a pick em contest on a Thursday night. And while I detest all things Tech (as well as the constantly growing “Enter Sandman” references like the city of Blacksburg owns the song—just like Boston thinks they own Neil Diamond’s “Sweet Caroline”), I’m taking the castrated turkeys to handle their business at home, at night, on ESPN.
Pick: Virginia Tech -1
November 20- Kansas State at TCU (-3.5)
I touch on this a little more later on, but Kansas State is underrated and TCU is overrated. Collin Klein is a baller. Cats win outright.
Pick: K-State +3.5
Okay, now for my fellow fans (and also those of you that like to
mock my homer picks, I’m looking at you Karthik)… it’s time to take a peek at
some early release West Virginia lines.
There might be other establishments that have released
spread information for 2012 WVU football, but since I’ve been doing Golden
Nugget thus far, I’ll stick with the guys that got me here.
September 1- Marshall at WVU (-20)
So this bet scares me more than you might think. The Herd
seem to be more and more pissed off that they’ve never beat us every year, and
they aren’t without some speedy little guys that can make plays of their own.
And I love Doc Holliday. He’s a great coach.I am somewhat tempted to believe in the power of the points here. But WVU won by 18 last year in a highly segmented game where Geno couldn’t get into a rhythm because of rain delays, not to mention it was his very first game in Dana’s system. The program enters the season with on an incredible high note, and I’ve got to think they can pick up three more points.
Pick: WVU -20
September 29- Baylor at WVU (-11)
Baylor is going to be offensively challenged without RG3 in the backfield. Maybe more importantly though, this game isn’t just in Morgantown—it’s the first Big 12 game, which happens to be at home. And remember, I don’t mean first of the season. I mean first, ever. And it happens to be in Morgantown. You think fans will be
Pick: WVU -11
October 6- WVU at Texas (-4)
If you’ve talked me into talking football in person with you, I’ve probably already told you that this is it. This is the game that scares the bejesus out of me. Oklahoma will lose in Morgantown, I’ve all but guaranteed it, but this is the game that nobody will talk about until 10 days before it happens. It’s just Texas! They’ve been down!
Down or not, Texas still has a lot of hyperathletic recruits that can give our athletes like Tavon Austin problems. I think Texas is going to be really fired up to push around the new kids on the block, and this is West Virginia’s first real test of the season anyway. On the road against a team we’ve never played, I think this is the game that decides our fate.
Pick: Texas -4
October 20- Kansas State at WVU (-7.5)
K-State is a drastically underrated team in all of these spreads, and I think they will match the Mountaineers step for step in this game. I think they might even lead at halftime. But WVU will win this game by 10 or 11 and clear the spread.
Pick: WVU -7.5
November 3- TCU at WVU (-6)
What scares me about this game is not anything about TCU—just the opposite actually, I think they are incredibly unscary defensively—but external circumstances. West Virginia is probably only a one loss team at this point, and a potentially undefeated Oklahoma team is coming to town in the next home game. College Gameday rumors will be flying around. And it’s easy to look past TCU as an unexplosive team with nothing special about it.
If TCU goes to 7.5 or above, I think I’d take Gary and the inscrutable toads. But at six, I’m sticking with my team to win a scary, potentially overlooked game.
Pick: WVU -6
(Coincidentally, Gary and the Inscrutable Toads would be the name of my future hypothetical band.)
November 10- WVU at Oklahoma St (-6.5)
Dana’s homecoming will most likely be unpleasant, but the Pokes are being seriously overrated this preseason. They are losing their two most important players, both of whom were hugely mature playmakers, and odds makers seem to be failing to fully take this into account.
Now, no disrespect intended here. I’ve been to Stillwater, and their stadium is surprisingly imposing. (It’s right next to their basketball stadium.) WVU may very well lose this game, it wouldn’t surprise me terribly if this was a post-Oklahoma letdown. But I think it would be close (unlike a potential Texas loss) and I’m taking the points.
Pick: WVU +6.5
November 17- Oklahoma at WVU (+4)
It’s well documented at this point. I believe Oklahoma will lose this game.
Pick: WVU +4
Since we’re talking odds, I’d like to leave you an accurate
depiction of WVU’s odds at the National Championship. This
comes from Bleacher Report’s Alex Callos, and I think we absolutely nailed it,
so all credit to him:
“West Virginia is a dark horse for the national championship and has one of the most explosive offenses in the country.
The Mountaineers are very talented led by quarterback Geno Smith and two dynamic wide receivers.
Others may not be as high on West Virginia, but this team has the potential to win all of its games and play for the BCS National Championship.
Whether or not that happens remains to be seen.
Odds- 12:1”
Couldn't have said it better myself.
No comments:
Post a Comment