You know, for a weekend headlined, advertised, and sold as "Judgement Day" by the media... there really wasn't a whole lot of Earthshattering upsets to happen. But since we are talking about March implications, lets talk bubble teams that picked up some signature wins this weekend.
Obviously, the biggest upset was unranked Virginia Tech knocking off Duke. I'm pretty conflicted on this subject. On one hand, I was raised to dislike Virginia Tech pretty much from birth by the majority of my extended family. West Virginia and Virginia Tech have had a long standing rivalry, and VT is number two on the list of teams to hate behind Pitt. On the other hand, Virginia Tech is a team that hasn't caught a lot of breaks lately, and you kind of feel for them as a team. After all, the law of averages should really come back around and pay them a favor or two in the form of Malcolm Delaney FINALLY making an NCAA tournament. Looks like I need a tiebreaker.
Virginia Tech passes the eye test, no question. They should probably be a 9/10 seed based on that alone. But do they have the resume? Uhhh... well, not really. It is true that they now have two top-50 RPI wins (Duke and FSU). And it's true that while I wouldn't use the word rigorous to describe Virginia Tech's non-conference scheduling, it's definitely good enough to get into the postseason. These two things (top-50 RPI wins and tough OOC scheduling) are what the committee primarily looks at. However, here are the faults the committee will find with Virginia Tech:
1. Though they now have two wins, both are from in-conference play. The committee still certainly looks at at in-conference wins, but they treat them more as a supplement. They like to see just as many OOC wins in the top 50 as there are in conference (thus showing that you play a non-conference schedule roughly equivalent to your conference's difficulty level, which is obviously relative to each individual team's talent level). Virginia Tech's OOC top-50 RPI? Zero. They lost every major out of conference game they played (Kansas St, UNLV, Purdue).
2. Bad Losses. Two to UVA, one to boston college. Every team usually has a couple bad losses, but Virginia Tech's seem... I don't know. Worse, somehow.
Is Virginia Tech in? If I was a committee member, not yet. The Duke win puts them in the conversation, but I think they need one more signature (such as one against UNC in the ACC tournament, should they play) win to solidify their at large bid. Alternatively, they could win their final two games (at home against 7-7 Boston College and at 8-6 Clemson) and that would most likely stamp their ticket as well.
However, I am not a committee member, and I firmly believe that the bubble is so soft that regardless of how many at large bids are stolen by conference tournament upstarts, the committee will put them in. They can drop their potential last 3 games (two regular season, one conference tourney) and still be put in, albeit as a 11/12 seed.
The bottom line? Relax, hokie fans. You can sleep easy. I think you'll be dancing in March.
Alright, are there any other big upsets from the weekend? Well, maybe one (let's not count Baylor- if it's forseeable, it's not that big). Colorado came from 20 points down in order to edge Texas, who seem to have lost their midseason form. I would go so far as to say if the national champion was awarded in January, Texas would have won it, and it wouldn't even be close. Unfortunately for the longhorns, the national champion is crowned in April, and they most likely have seen their potential #1 seed slip after losing to both Nebraska and Colorado in 7 days time. Once in command of the Big 12, they are now barely in 1st, holding the tiebreaker for 1st over Kansas. The regular season will be decided when Texas hosts Kansas this week.
But what of Colorado? Well, they're at .500 in the Big 12. Will they make the tournament? Probably not, barring a big run in the big 12 tournament. Still, they're worth mentioning here as I close out the weekend. For now, they can enjoy the inevitable hangover of Texas.
This weekend: 15/20
Alltime: 32/42 (.762)
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