Bracketbusters to Watch

Major fans, take a seat.  You’re not going to like where this conversation goes.

Ahh yes, bracketbusters.  Depending on who you are, it’s a weekend full of exciting games with huge postseason impact, or a multitude of mind-numbingly boring little guy vs littler guy matchups.  While I am not usually a big proponent of mid-majors, I do love this weekend.  Any time you get teams together with approximately even talent levels and march madness bids on the line, the result is gonna be games that are instant classics.

In case you aren’t familiar with Bracketbusters, it’s a weekend that usually features several strong mid-majors in contention for an at large bid playing marquee out-of-conference games very late in the season.  And this weekend it proves to be my featured Thursday content.  Without further ado, teams (or matchups) to watch:

5. Missouri State
As I said yesterday, Missouri St is right there in the hunt in the MVC.  They’re stepping out to play a very good Horizon league team in Valparaiso.  Much like the winner of my number 5 game, Missouri St will not be awarded an at large seed even if they do win this game, so this game is also important for the purposes of momentum.  However, I do believe that a win over Valparaiso, couple with a MVC tourney title, would push the bears into contention for a #10 seed.  It’s slim, but it’s definitely possible.

4. George Mason
You all know by this point that I’m big on Mason right now.  The patriots are going out to the Midwest to play Northern Iowa this weekend in what could be a matchup between the best basketball team in Virginia against the best basketball team in Iowa.  GMU is most likely close to locking up an at large bid, and this win could push them over the edge.  That alone could provide a huge stress reliever when the CAA tourney comes around in a couple weeks.  Of course, like all BB matchups, this game could greatly impact Mason’s seeding.  If they win out, they could be as high as a 6/7 seed.

3. ODU vs Cleveland St
Cleveland State is a solid team from the Horizon league, the same league last year’s runner-up Butler is from.  They’re pretty good, but they’re not an at large team.  You know who might be?  ODU.  Everyone wants to talk about how ODU is failing to live up to preseason expectations, dropping four games in conference play with two tough ones left to go.  You know what they don’t talk about?  For one thing, ODU dropped a game to powerhouse Georgetown by 3 points.  Their wins against Clemson and at ECU.  Wins over three separate Atlantic 10 teams- middle of the road Dayton, Richmond (currently 1 game back), and conference leader Xavier.  A win against Cleveland St might seal the monarchs’ ticket to the dance pending a couple impressive performances in the conference tournament.

2. VCU vs Wichita St
VCU seems to have played itself out of at large contention while George Mason has picked up the rams’ early-season dominance of the CAA.  However, they can still get a marquee win and some great momentum going into the CAA tourney in a couple weeks by winning at MVC preseason favorite Wichita St.  I talked a lot about the shockers yesterday, so I won’t spend much time talking about this game.  But it’s definitely a big game as far as seeding goes and is worthy of the number 2 spot on this list. 

1.  Utah St at St. Mary’s
This game is gigantic.  Enormous.  Huge.  Gargantuan.  Enormous.  Grande.  Okay, I’m running out of synonyms for large on Microsoft Word, so I’m going to stop because I think you guys got the point.  Both these teams are currently ranked- Saint Mary’s at 23, Utah St at 24.  Do I agree with the rankings?  Hell no- but maybe that is why this game is so big.  St Mary’s has been the favorite to win the WCC for most of the year and has played well enough to probably earn an at large bid regardless of how they finish their year.  And you would think that the 24th best team in the nation this close to postseason time would too, right?  Well, you’d be wrong.  Despite whatever the AP voters, and despite USU’s 12-1 WAC record and 24-3 overall mark, Utah St has not a single win over any top 100 RPI team.  In other words, Utah State hasn’t beaten a single team that even has a chance of making the tournament.  That’s not to say they haven’t played any, though- they lost to BYU on the road, and then got crushed by Georgetown in DC.  Their third loss?  At lowly Idaho, who sport a completely average record of 14-11, 7-6.  Utah St might be ranked, but they are FAR from safe this postseason if they don’t win the WAC title.  So in some way’s this game is really only important for St Mary’s seeding- if you’re asking me, Utah State winning this match by 100 points would not warrant a bid next month.