Preseason Poll, part 2. Let's get down to it.
15. Boise State
Why they could contend: Whoever cooked up Boise State's football strategy for the last few years is, frankly, an absolute genius. They have played in the WAC up until this year; despite what anyone tells you, this is an absolute cupcake conference. They hardly ever face a challenge in conference play. By blowing everyone out after getting one big road victory in the nonconference, they can claim that they are a team worthy of competing for the national title. Add in a quarterback that is a legitimate threat to pick apart any secondary and an incredibly tenacious defensive line, and you've got the makings of a team that garners national attention throughout the year. The genius of it is the controversy a team like Boise creates in a system that works like the BCS does. This year is no different than the others- Boise has Kellen Moore back for his senior year, and has once again put together a defense that is not national championship caliber, but it's still pretty good.
Where their problems lie: 2011 is Boise's first year in the mountain west, a conference that isn't AQ but is still pretty good. The MWC lost Utah to the Pac-10 and will lose TCU at the end of this year to the Big East in a geographically questionable conference realignment, but Boise will still face tougher conference opponents than it has in previous years. This threatens their ability to run the table like they usually do. Most notable are the losses on offense, where Kellen Moore has lost both of his best receivers. Boise's offensive coordinator bolted for a more notworthy job, so the offense may go through some growing pains in the new OC's first year. Oh, and don't forget the the AD just got canned too.
What you can expect: The preseason hype will always be around, but I think this is the year that it finally goes unjustified. Whether or not Boise wins at Georgia is irrelevant; they won't be able to make it through the season in their usual undefeated, flashy enough fashion to make it anywhere close to the national championship. Though i do think Boise pulls off a home win against TCU, Boise doesn't have the talent on both sides of the ball this year to get it done. They will drop a game somewhere along the way and fall into obscurity.
14. Mississippi State
Why they could contend: Head coach Dan Mullen has been quietly building Miss. St into a program that can some day compete with the likes of the SEC west. For 2011, he has lined up what could be an offensive juggernaut: a dual threat quarterback that could run roughshot over SEC defenses, two powerful runningbacks, and an entire stable of wide receivers. On the other side of the ball, the secondary is a huge strength and will most likely hold opponents to very low 3rd down conversion rates. Possibly most important of all, State's schedule lines up incredibly favorably. Playing in the absolutely loaded SEC West ( I have four of six SEC west teams in my top 15), Miss St gets LSU, Alabama, and eastern foe South Carolina at home. They do have to travel to Arkansas, but the schedule still lines up favorably for a run, albeit a darkhorse run, at the West's spot in the SEC championship game.
Where their problems lie: Receivers are out and power runningbacks are in this year in the SEC. It's great that State will field a good secondary, but I fear that the rest of their defense (which is very mediocre, especially by SEC standards) won't be able stop the run well enough to get opponents' offenses off the field. SEC teams will probably decide to shove the run down Mississippi State's throats, and the dawgs might be powerless to stop it.
What you can expect: If it were any other conference, Mississippi State could probably contend for the title. State probably starts off well enough, winning at Memphis and Auburn. They might even pull a big upset over LSU at home if the Tigers are too tired from previous games or looking past State to a road trip to Morgantown. A 6-0 start seems unlikely though. At best, State enters their home game against South Carolina at 5-1, and Marcus Lattimore's ground attack is way too much for the front 7 to handle. The gamecocks give the remaining teams a blueprint on how to beat the bulldogs. They open 5-1 but close 3-3 to end up 8-4, 9-4 counting their bowl game blowout of some other fourth place team.
13. West Virginia
Why they could contend: I know, I know. Nepotism. But just hear me out. Dana Holgorsen has taken absolute nobody's and made them into monstrous offensive units. Remember that preseason-last-place Oklahoma State team that led the nation in offense last year? Remember how a receiver was getting Heisman hype? Remember how right before that, C-USA team Houston somehow had the number one offense in the country, and Case Keenum was a god of football? Yeah. Dana Holgorsen. So there's some monstrous potential when you combine Holgy's offense with Geno Smith, the qb who has poise beyond his years (insert Marshall comment here). West Virginia doesn't just have a stable of receivers and runningbacks- it has an entire farm. Lots of incoming freshman runningbacks are very talented. Legendary coach Don Nehlen's grandson has also walked onto the team and is making an impact at receiver right behind playmakers like Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. There's talent on the defensive side of the ball, with defensive end Bruce Irvin stepping into a full time role this year. If you wanna know how good the juco transfer Irvin is, just know that he ranked in the top 5 nationally last year in sacks- and only played on third downs. The secondary s solid too, with returning players like Keith Tandy who ranked near the top nationally in picks last year.
Where their problems lie: There have been plenty of off the field distractions this year that could cause chinks in the armor. But much more important than the off the field issues is what's hapenning on the field. Holgorsen brings with him a brand new Air Raid, pass-happy offense that could cause some growing pains to a football team that is traditionally a run-first offense. And even if everyone has the offense down by the season's start, the defense lost nine starters, many of whom were all big-east selections. One of the best returners, Julian Miller, is being moved from the end opposite Bruce Irvin to the defensive tackle position. Miller was very effective last year, but he could be a serious question mark playing from the DT position instead of as a DE. Can a team with a relatively unproven defense survive in tandem with a fast paced offense?
What you can expect: Former head coach Bill Stewart predicted a few years ago that West Virginia will win its first national title in the 2011-2012 season. Ironically, his prediction stands a fair shot of coming true without him present; West Virginia's schedule is set up this year to put them in position to be in the national title race. If the mountaineers can get past LSU at home and not look past Maryland on the road the week before, few teams in the Big East will likely have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Holgorsen offense regardless of how the defense plays. The most difficult games are all at home- including the Backyard Brawl, which is always a wide open competition. If West Virgina beats LSU, I think they will go 11-0 all the way up to the USF game. South Florida always plays WVU incredibly hard, and if a top 5 ranked WVU team comes to Tampa, USF is going to be very fired up. That game could very easily go to the bulls. Ultimately though, WVU's season comes down to games against LSU at home and on the road in Tampa- those two games will determine the postseason fate of this team.
12. Missouri
What you can expect: Sure, Blaine Gabbert is gone... but pretty much everything else is still there. Missouri has a fantastic offensive line to protect their new quarterback. The runningbacks and receivers are solid at the top of the depth chart too, which means an all around balanced attack and less immediate pressure on the quarterback. This offense can hold pace with the other high-powered attacks in the Big 12.
Where their problems lie: The defense overall is so-so, but the secondary is particularly vulnerable. Teams like Oklahoma State will pass on the Tigers all day, and they won't be able to do much to stop them.
What you can expect: Missouri's offense can keep it in a shootout, but ultimately it's defense is going to hold it back if it can't come up with stops when they matter most. Add in a new quarterback and even with a proven offense, it could be a step back for Mizzou this year. Early tests might be too much- Missouri will easily drop at least one game in the month of September between road games at Arizona State and Oklahoma. Oklahoma State will probably win at Missouri, and I don't think the tigers can win at Texas A&M either, my darkhorse national title contender. Missouri finds one more game to lose and ends up somewhere around fourth in the Big 12 at the end of the season. Realizing they can't even compete where they're at, the Tigers don't even think about bolting for the SEC.
11. Florida State
What you can expect: Sportscenter highlights. When you couple old guard teams that many college football fans would love to see come back into their own with great skill position talent, you get sportscenter highlights all day long. Christian Ponder might be gone from Tallahassee, but the seminoles still possess great runningback/wide receiver depth and talent that will allow them to dominate most of their ACC competition. The defense isn't too shabby either. It returns several starters and will probably be one of the best in the conference.
Where their problems lie: Sure, the loss of Christian Ponder hurts, but what probably hurts more is the departure of the men that protected him. FSU had one of the best offensive lines in the country, and the line will face a serious rebuilding effort this year. Combine that with new quarterback EJ Manuel who has thrown 6 td's and 10 picks over his career, and who knows what you're gonna get? If the pocket can hold, the offense could be powerful, but it's gonna be a big if. That's why I'm not as high on them as others in the media are.
What you can expect: Expect the seminoles to take a big step toward being "back" this year. I think they will run through ACC competition, but Oklahoma will have too many athletes in their pass rush for FSU to get the win. I also think other road games in the ACC might prove tricky for the impulsive qb Manuel, and teams that are physical up front like Clemson and Boston College might be too much on the road. FSU goes 10-2 in the regular season, wins the ACC championship game, and loses the ensuing BCS game.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Friday, August 12, 2011
Preseason Poll: 20-16
Today I kick off my four part mini series on my preseason poll. This is not based on the Harris Poll, Coaches Poll, AP Poll, or ESPN poll. Instead, this is based off my own research, opinions, and trends that I note. For each team, I will highlight some strengths, some weaknesses, and what you should probably expect from the team over the course of the season. The poll will ascend through the week from the bottom rung all the way to my top 5, which will be revealed early next week. Without further ado:
20. South Florida
Why they could contend: The Bulls home in Tampa places them in one of the very best recruiting grounds in the entire country, and their rosters usually show it. They are constantly loaded with top-notch, speedy talent on the defensive side of the ball. This year is no exception, as USF looks to be one of the top two defenses in the Big East. Seasoned quarterback BJ Daniels is a dual threat who looks to finally be putting everything together the right way. A pretty favorable schedule could net the bulls their first Big East title.
Where their problems lie: South Florida has a nasty habit of looking like a national title hopeful in the beginning of their season but more like a FCS practice squad by the end. Second year coach Skip Holtz shows some promise, but he may need a couple more years before he really has the program soaring. And oh yeah- this is the second or third year I've thought BJ Daniels was really gonna put it all together.
What you can expect: I think South Florida comes out swinging and pulls an absolutely massive shocker in South Bend. Now in the national spotlight, the bulls coast through September playing their relatively-timid-after-we-get-through-Notre-Dame nonconference schedule. The bulls prove the doubters wrong again by winning at Pitt and grab their first top 20 ranking in quite some time as the calendar heads into October. The bulls win and win right up until the beach-accustomed team pays a November trip to upstate New York. Looking forward to the upcoming week's Miami game, the relatively young squad gets tripped up by Syracuse, and the bulls unravel at the end yet again by dropping three of their last four games. They still finish the season with an improved record and a near-the-top-of-the-big-east finish, but Bulls fans still aren't appeased with their teams performance.
19. Virginia Tech
Why they could contend: I don't exactly expect a loaded ACC this year (don't be surprised if the ACC never gets more than two teams in the top 25), and Virginia Tech pulls enough quality talent to put forward a conference contender every year. Freakishly fast runningback David Wilson returns to the squad and will likely anchor a young offense with a whiplash-inducing ground attack. New hokie quarterback Logan Thomas will be a powerful force to be reckoned with too, standing at 6 feet 6 inches. This team will challenge for the ACC title just as they always do.
Where their problems lie: I make it no secret that I kind of despise Virginia Tech fans. It comes with the territory of growing up a WVU fan, but it's also because they think that their team walks on water every year. Fans of the team from Blacksburg: put a serious lid on it this year, or you might look foolish. The offensive line has a few issues that need to be worked out before David Wilson breaks off 40 yards every other play like he is probably capable of. Logan Thomas has potential- but he also has 0 games that he has started in. Most importantly, the entire defensive line will have to be replaced- a defensive line that also anchor's Frank Beamer's notorious "Beamer Ball" special teams. I don't see Tech dropping any games to FCS opponents in Lane Stadium this year (though App State is always pretty good, and they have slayed a Goliath before), but I also don't see them coming close to beating Florida State in a potential Championship rematch from last year either.
What you can expect: I heard a rumor that some SOS system actually ranked Virginia Tech's schedule the easiest in all of FBS football. It wouldn't surprise me- they play 8 ACC games, two C-USA games, one sunbelt team, and one FCS opponent. Both of the CUSA games are away, so look for Marshall/ECU to try to spring an upset. The hokies might run the table at home this year- the only real threat to beat them is Clemson, which has a reasonable shot- but their road schedule is a different story. I think Tech drops their game at Georgia Tech, and don't be surprised if this is finally the year UVA gets back into the UVA-VT rivalry. Tech is 9-4 after losing the ACC championship to Florida State and gets blown out for the second year in a row in their postseason bowl game. Hokie nation still thinks their team was the true national champion... if you just cut all those losses off the record.
18. Ohio State
Why they could contend: Despite the circus that has been the Buckeye offseason, Ohio State has great line play set up for this year. All-American line play, probably. They will win the battles in the trenches, and that always puts you in great position to win football games.
Where their problems lie: Where to even begin... new coach. New quarterback. New scandals constantly unfolding in the national spotlight. The pressure is seriously on this team to not suck like they probably should after everything that has happened in Columbus this last nine months or so. Don't forget the nice chunk of talent that can't play for the first five games, including a critical conference game at home against Michigan State.
What you can expect: Gauging how Ohio State is going to do over the entire upcoming football season is kind of like predicting the next country to stage a mass revolt using twitter: you might be able to take a couple educated guesses, but you're ultimately taking completely random shots in the dark. This unit could come together through all the crap that's happened, or it could completely wilt under pressure with a new head coach and very few leaders. I honestly have no idea. The one thing they do have is a lot of luck when it comes to who is schedule and when they're scheduled. Their first two games are cupcakes. The third game is long haul to the University of Miami (Fl), which could prove too challenging for the team to overcome... if Miami weren't experiencing their own hard times with a new coach. Colorado probably doesn't have the talent upfront to beat OSU in week four, and I don't think Michigan State has a credible enough pass rush threat to beat even an undermanned Ohio State team in Columbus. So it is incredibly possible that Ohio State escapes their first-five dilemna unscathed. Even a home game against Wisconsin seems a bit lucky- the buckeye's biggest strength is their line play, which could be solid enough to stop the badger run attack. Games at Nebraska and Illinois could prove challenging, but ultimately I think Ohio State ends up with a 10-2, non-BCS season. They even follow it up with a bowl win. Their crappy new coach will be made out to be a Messiah, obnoxious First Take interviews and all. Gag me now.
17. Arizona State
Why they could contend: Arizona State is a good team with a national-championship caliber defense. They are flying pretty far below the radar, as they weren't too good last year (though they came very close to springing some huge upsets quite a few times), and just missed out on entrance into the preseason coaches' poll. Expect any coach worth his tenure to turn that into motivation for any team with remote amounts of potential.
Where their problems lie: Here's one you don't hear a whole lot: discipline. If you ever watched the sun devils play last year, they are a horribly disciplined team. They rack up penalties faster than James Harrison racks up fines for illegal hits, and they're just as angry about it (and just as unwilling to do something about it, too). If this team wants to contend for the Pac-12 title, it has got to stop picking up penalties at inopportune moments. You can bet Stanford and Oregon won't be forgiving.
What you can expect: For one, look for a big sun devil test when Mizzou comes to town on a Friday night in week two. If Arizona can make a big time home stand, I guarentee they crack the top 25. Win again on the road the following week at Illinois, and you've earned the top 20. The problem is, I don't think this team will be disciplined enough to follow up a huge home shocker with a big road victory. This team opens 2-1, squeaks by USC, and bests Oregon State. At 4-1, you're still talking about a fringe top 20 team. They drop a game on the road to hungry newcomer Utah and don't stand a chance at lightning-pace Oregon. Another game is dropped at UCLA... State makes up for the poor October play by winning their big rivalry game against Arizona at home, but they still only finish 8-4. The sun devils almost squander a big halftime lead in their bowl game as the offense struggles in the second half under a new quarterback that's still being broken in, even in late december. They hang on to win, but only because of the high caliber of their defense. Still, wins in both the postseason bowl AND the main rivalry game, in addition to a much improved 9-4 season, leaves sun devil fans satisfied.
16. Oklahoma State
Why they could contend: All Oklahoma State did last year was have the number one offense in the country when they were picked to finish at the bottom of the big 12. Returning qb Brandon Weeden and returning receiver phenom Justin Blackmon are great players and even better in tandem. They're playing in a system that lets them flourish while putting up rediculous numbers. The entire offensive line is a good unit too- look for their offensive line to lead the country in sacks allowed (a good unit + a system that employs lots of quick passes). And while everybody is talking about the offense, don't sleep on the Cowboys' secondary- it's not too bad either.
Where their problems lie: The secondary is about all that's solid on the Oklahoma State defense. Running and play action passes are going to absolutely kill them every time. Ironically, the cowboys might need to look to shootouts to wins quite a few games this year.
What you can expect: The 2011 Oklahoma State Cowboys are going to be an experiment in System vs Coach. Can the system really flourish without the mastermind of a coach that engineered it? Dana Hologorsen left Stillwater to become the Head-Coach-in-Waiting/Offensive Coordinator/actually-the-head-coach-after-all at West Virginia. Weeden and Blackmon know the Air Raid offense well enough by now to run it efficiently and effectively without Coach Holgorsen around to hold their hand as they practice, but I still think that the offense sees some significant dropoff. They're going to be good, but not nearly as good as the pundits think they will be. In a pretty loaded would-have-been-the-big-12-south, expect a step back toward mediocrity. I think they finish 8-4 in a difficult conference year and go on to beat some scrub team in a bowl game.
Keep it here to find out if I allow my Mountaineers to crack the top 10 of my poll. Or maybe they didn't make it at all? You'll just have to wait to find out.
20. South Florida
Why they could contend: The Bulls home in Tampa places them in one of the very best recruiting grounds in the entire country, and their rosters usually show it. They are constantly loaded with top-notch, speedy talent on the defensive side of the ball. This year is no exception, as USF looks to be one of the top two defenses in the Big East. Seasoned quarterback BJ Daniels is a dual threat who looks to finally be putting everything together the right way. A pretty favorable schedule could net the bulls their first Big East title.
Where their problems lie: South Florida has a nasty habit of looking like a national title hopeful in the beginning of their season but more like a FCS practice squad by the end. Second year coach Skip Holtz shows some promise, but he may need a couple more years before he really has the program soaring. And oh yeah- this is the second or third year I've thought BJ Daniels was really gonna put it all together.
What you can expect: I think South Florida comes out swinging and pulls an absolutely massive shocker in South Bend. Now in the national spotlight, the bulls coast through September playing their relatively-timid-after-we-get-through-Notre-Dame nonconference schedule. The bulls prove the doubters wrong again by winning at Pitt and grab their first top 20 ranking in quite some time as the calendar heads into October. The bulls win and win right up until the beach-accustomed team pays a November trip to upstate New York. Looking forward to the upcoming week's Miami game, the relatively young squad gets tripped up by Syracuse, and the bulls unravel at the end yet again by dropping three of their last four games. They still finish the season with an improved record and a near-the-top-of-the-big-east finish, but Bulls fans still aren't appeased with their teams performance.
19. Virginia Tech
Why they could contend: I don't exactly expect a loaded ACC this year (don't be surprised if the ACC never gets more than two teams in the top 25), and Virginia Tech pulls enough quality talent to put forward a conference contender every year. Freakishly fast runningback David Wilson returns to the squad and will likely anchor a young offense with a whiplash-inducing ground attack. New hokie quarterback Logan Thomas will be a powerful force to be reckoned with too, standing at 6 feet 6 inches. This team will challenge for the ACC title just as they always do.
Where their problems lie: I make it no secret that I kind of despise Virginia Tech fans. It comes with the territory of growing up a WVU fan, but it's also because they think that their team walks on water every year. Fans of the team from Blacksburg: put a serious lid on it this year, or you might look foolish. The offensive line has a few issues that need to be worked out before David Wilson breaks off 40 yards every other play like he is probably capable of. Logan Thomas has potential- but he also has 0 games that he has started in. Most importantly, the entire defensive line will have to be replaced- a defensive line that also anchor's Frank Beamer's notorious "Beamer Ball" special teams. I don't see Tech dropping any games to FCS opponents in Lane Stadium this year (though App State is always pretty good, and they have slayed a Goliath before), but I also don't see them coming close to beating Florida State in a potential Championship rematch from last year either.
What you can expect: I heard a rumor that some SOS system actually ranked Virginia Tech's schedule the easiest in all of FBS football. It wouldn't surprise me- they play 8 ACC games, two C-USA games, one sunbelt team, and one FCS opponent. Both of the CUSA games are away, so look for Marshall/ECU to try to spring an upset. The hokies might run the table at home this year- the only real threat to beat them is Clemson, which has a reasonable shot- but their road schedule is a different story. I think Tech drops their game at Georgia Tech, and don't be surprised if this is finally the year UVA gets back into the UVA-VT rivalry. Tech is 9-4 after losing the ACC championship to Florida State and gets blown out for the second year in a row in their postseason bowl game. Hokie nation still thinks their team was the true national champion... if you just cut all those losses off the record.
18. Ohio State
Why they could contend: Despite the circus that has been the Buckeye offseason, Ohio State has great line play set up for this year. All-American line play, probably. They will win the battles in the trenches, and that always puts you in great position to win football games.
Where their problems lie: Where to even begin... new coach. New quarterback. New scandals constantly unfolding in the national spotlight. The pressure is seriously on this team to not suck like they probably should after everything that has happened in Columbus this last nine months or so. Don't forget the nice chunk of talent that can't play for the first five games, including a critical conference game at home against Michigan State.
What you can expect: Gauging how Ohio State is going to do over the entire upcoming football season is kind of like predicting the next country to stage a mass revolt using twitter: you might be able to take a couple educated guesses, but you're ultimately taking completely random shots in the dark. This unit could come together through all the crap that's happened, or it could completely wilt under pressure with a new head coach and very few leaders. I honestly have no idea. The one thing they do have is a lot of luck when it comes to who is schedule and when they're scheduled. Their first two games are cupcakes. The third game is long haul to the University of Miami (Fl), which could prove too challenging for the team to overcome... if Miami weren't experiencing their own hard times with a new coach. Colorado probably doesn't have the talent upfront to beat OSU in week four, and I don't think Michigan State has a credible enough pass rush threat to beat even an undermanned Ohio State team in Columbus. So it is incredibly possible that Ohio State escapes their first-five dilemna unscathed. Even a home game against Wisconsin seems a bit lucky- the buckeye's biggest strength is their line play, which could be solid enough to stop the badger run attack. Games at Nebraska and Illinois could prove challenging, but ultimately I think Ohio State ends up with a 10-2, non-BCS season. They even follow it up with a bowl win. Their crappy new coach will be made out to be a Messiah, obnoxious First Take interviews and all. Gag me now.
17. Arizona State
Why they could contend: Arizona State is a good team with a national-championship caliber defense. They are flying pretty far below the radar, as they weren't too good last year (though they came very close to springing some huge upsets quite a few times), and just missed out on entrance into the preseason coaches' poll. Expect any coach worth his tenure to turn that into motivation for any team with remote amounts of potential.
Where their problems lie: Here's one you don't hear a whole lot: discipline. If you ever watched the sun devils play last year, they are a horribly disciplined team. They rack up penalties faster than James Harrison racks up fines for illegal hits, and they're just as angry about it (and just as unwilling to do something about it, too). If this team wants to contend for the Pac-12 title, it has got to stop picking up penalties at inopportune moments. You can bet Stanford and Oregon won't be forgiving.
What you can expect: For one, look for a big sun devil test when Mizzou comes to town on a Friday night in week two. If Arizona can make a big time home stand, I guarentee they crack the top 25. Win again on the road the following week at Illinois, and you've earned the top 20. The problem is, I don't think this team will be disciplined enough to follow up a huge home shocker with a big road victory. This team opens 2-1, squeaks by USC, and bests Oregon State. At 4-1, you're still talking about a fringe top 20 team. They drop a game on the road to hungry newcomer Utah and don't stand a chance at lightning-pace Oregon. Another game is dropped at UCLA... State makes up for the poor October play by winning their big rivalry game against Arizona at home, but they still only finish 8-4. The sun devils almost squander a big halftime lead in their bowl game as the offense struggles in the second half under a new quarterback that's still being broken in, even in late december. They hang on to win, but only because of the high caliber of their defense. Still, wins in both the postseason bowl AND the main rivalry game, in addition to a much improved 9-4 season, leaves sun devil fans satisfied.
16. Oklahoma State
Why they could contend: All Oklahoma State did last year was have the number one offense in the country when they were picked to finish at the bottom of the big 12. Returning qb Brandon Weeden and returning receiver phenom Justin Blackmon are great players and even better in tandem. They're playing in a system that lets them flourish while putting up rediculous numbers. The entire offensive line is a good unit too- look for their offensive line to lead the country in sacks allowed (a good unit + a system that employs lots of quick passes). And while everybody is talking about the offense, don't sleep on the Cowboys' secondary- it's not too bad either.
Where their problems lie: The secondary is about all that's solid on the Oklahoma State defense. Running and play action passes are going to absolutely kill them every time. Ironically, the cowboys might need to look to shootouts to wins quite a few games this year.
What you can expect: The 2011 Oklahoma State Cowboys are going to be an experiment in System vs Coach. Can the system really flourish without the mastermind of a coach that engineered it? Dana Hologorsen left Stillwater to become the Head-Coach-in-Waiting/Offensive Coordinator/actually-the-head-coach-after-all at West Virginia. Weeden and Blackmon know the Air Raid offense well enough by now to run it efficiently and effectively without Coach Holgorsen around to hold their hand as they practice, but I still think that the offense sees some significant dropoff. They're going to be good, but not nearly as good as the pundits think they will be. In a pretty loaded would-have-been-the-big-12-south, expect a step back toward mediocrity. I think they finish 8-4 in a difficult conference year and go on to beat some scrub team in a bowl game.
Keep it here to find out if I allow my Mountaineers to crack the top 10 of my poll. Or maybe they didn't make it at all? You'll just have to wait to find out.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Don't Expect These Teams in my Preseason Rankings
Welcome to my week dedicated to the anticipation many of us are feeling for the beginning of the college football season! With the publication of this year's preseason coaches poll, I thought I'd go through and highlight my own top teams to watch going into the preseason. I'll be doing 5 a day for the remainder of the week in ascending order. For each team, I'll name why they're ranked where they are, what's holding them back, and what you can expect from them over the course of the season- all my own humble opinions of course. Everyone should feel free to disagree. Also, notice that there's a new poll on the blog- something I have neglected for lack of content this summer- so take a look and voice your opinions.
While I'll be taking a look at my top 20 for the rest of the week, I wanted to talk a little bit today about teams you shouldn't expect to see in my rankings. Because of the scale of the top 25 polls, many voters often fill the voids with power teams that are traditionally good from year to year because of the lack of information. Sometimes they just carry teams over that were successful the previous year- it's just the nature of the game. So I spent the better part of the last seven days compiling information, and now I'm ready to give you the filler teams from most polls that you should ignore, at least for now, until they prove themselves in the coming weeks:
TEXAS
Why they could contend: It's really the same reason why they could contend every year. Texas lies in the heart of one of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country. When you mix four and five star recruits with top-of-the-line facilities, you always have the ability to be a pretty solid team. Many of the same pieces are still in place from last year too, which means more experienced players are around to improve on the Longhorn's 2010 5-7 campaign.
Why they won't contend: What's changed since last year? Coaches have been switched around, but it's primarily the same offense, same defense, and most of the same players that didn't jel. Mainly, it's the presence of quarterback Garrett Gilbert, who just isn't that great of a leader or player. Unlike most bigtime signalcallers, Gilbert really lacks the inner fire that drive most of these college football stars... watching him is not exciting. He lacks a lot of confidence, and that carries over and affects the play of his teammates. A loaded quarterback stable, including Colt McCoy's little brother, is going to put some pressure on Gilbert to play better this year, but don't expect much to be different.
What you should expect: Expect the record to be a little better; don't expect the team to be much better. I expect Texas to drop at least three conference games (expect the longhorns to go 1-3 out of games @Missouri, @A&M, Oklahoma, OkSt) plus their road game at UCLA. An 8-4 record is enough to get Texas into a lower tier bowl game, but I expect a fired up team with less talent to come in and steal a victory. Texas will end its season 8-5: a step in the right direction after a losing season for Mack Brown but still far from where expectations lie in the heart of longhorn nation.
Notre Dame
Why they could contend: The installation of former Cincinatti coach Brian Kelly has Notre Dame heading toward a Recruiting Rennaissance. In many ways, BK has been made out to be the Messiah that the Fighting Irish need, and that could still very well prove true. BK fervor has attracted a lot of young talent to South Bend, and the defense that Notre Dame puts forth should be above average this year. On the offensive side of the ball, Brian Kelly is a mastermind of putting points on the board, and any offense he's commanding has to be given some respect.
Why they won't contend: Departures from last year's offense already have hurt the Irish. They retain their best wide receiver, but serious off the field/mentality issues may threaten his ability to contribute. Possibly the most worrisome preseason problem plaguing the Notre Dame offense is the giant quarterback controversy. Four different athletes are all competing for their chance to call the signals for the offense, but Brian Kelly has decided to not make a decision in the immediate future. Instead, he will wait until ten days before the team's first game to decide who will be leading the offense- a highly risky move that could create serious controversy and consternation in the backfield.
What you should expect: Kelly is building Notre Dame into a contender, but the Irish aren't quite there yet. Look for a very underrated and speedy South Florida team to come in and shock Notre Dame in the very first weekend, setting the home upset tone for the remainder of the year. The Irish also host, among other teams, Boston College, USC, Air Force, and Michigan State. I expect them to go 2-2 against these four teams. I also think they will drop games at Pitt and Stanford, thus finishing the season at 7-5. Though technically it's a worse finish than their 8-4 mark from last year, Kelly is going in the right direction and the program will reascend to greater heights in the next few years.
TCU
Why they could contend: Coach Gary Patterson has escalated TCU's football program to a new level. They are constantly in the national spotlight and have established a tradition of excellence in the last 10-15 years. This much is obvious, seeing as they were recently invited to join an AQ conference. The AQ invitation only helped to create more hype around the program, and recruits have been flooding to the horned frogs in waves. Patterson has consistenly put together tough defenses that are capable of allowing this team to hang around with anyone.
Why they won't contend: Don't get me wrong- the defense is still good. But it's not quite the same as it was in the previous few years. The linebacker positions are still a huge strength for the horned frogs, but heavy depletions on the front d-line as well as in the secondary have left the defense slightly more vulnerable. I'm not saying the recruits aren't capable in their own right- they certainly are- but this won't be the same defense that halted the insane power-running game of Wisconsin in last year's Rose Bowl. On the other side of the ball, celebrated TCU quarterback Andy Dalton has graduated and declared for the NFL draft, and the heir to his position is probably not quite as skilled as he was at running the TCU offense. Finally, the Mountain West did the frogs no scheduling favors in their last year in the conference before their move to the big east. TCU must face an early challenge at Baylor, and travel to both Boise and San Diego State. These and other road challenges could put a damper on the expectations for Patterson's squad; a perfect season repeat is pretty unlikely.
What you should expect: TCU probably drops two games at the minimum, probably even three. They still get to go to a bowl game, where they will likely dominate some lesser AQ team from the middle of their conference. TCU grabs another 10+ win season as they leave the mountain west for the big east, but the comparison to last year's undefeated Rose Bowl winners leaves frog fans yearning for just a little bit more.
Michigan State
Why they could contend: Quarterback Kirk Cousins in a winner. The Spartan stable of runningbacks is formiddable, there's no question. Though this team did get absolutely walloped by an angry Alabama team in last year's Capital One bowl, they were still a very solid group that shared the Big Ten title. A big portion of that experienced, skilled team returns. So why wouldn't they be able to put it together this year?
Why they won't contend: The Spartans took a pretty big hit to their front 7 on the defensive side of the ball, which might make many of their games this year into more of a shootout. Cousins and his runningbacks are very good, but at the same time... if you had to choose an offense to win you a shootout, would Michigan State's immediately come to mind? In addition, much of MSU's success last year was thanks to an incredibly favorable schedule. As nice as last year's was, this year's is just the opposite. The Spartans play some serious cupcakes in their non-conference, and probably won't be ready for their first road game at Notre Dame. Don't bet on that game folks- it could go either way. If the Spartans can escape South Bend with the W, they must soon travel to Ohio State- another game that could go either way because of the multiple player suspensions Ohio State will suffer from for their first five games (MSU is OSU's fifth game). The spartans do get to host both Michigan and Wisconsin, but they must later travel to Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern. By the end of the season, I think MSU's runningbacks get eaten up by injuries because of the lack of other playmakers, and the Spartans drop at least 4 games. They do make a bowl game at 8-4, but surprisingly drop their postseason game to a lesser team to finish 8-5.
Auburn
Why they could contend: Any time a team wins a national championship, their recruiting skyrockets. While Auburn's recruiting hasn't been nearly as good as other recent national champions (many of their desired recruits have jumped ship to conference rival Florida or archrival Alabama), they've still had a solid intake of young talent to keep the wins coming in.
Why they won't contend: Can you honestly name an offensive player from last year's national championship team besides Cam Newton? It's harder than you think. Auburn's defense was great last year; with the loss of Nick Fairley and others to the NFL draft, it reverts to just good. As for the offense, it was 100% powered by the versatility of Cam Newton. The SEC is not a league often associated with dual threat quarterbacks (it's more of a big 12/ACC thing, and the big east gets some good ones every once in a while too), so when a team gets a Cam Newton or a Tim Tebow that has any amount of running talent at all... forget about it. You couple that with a good defense and you've perfected the formula for a national championship team. With the loss of Auburn's home run hitting ability, their offense will slack back into the mediocrity of three years ago. It doesn't matter if you have a good defense when your offense can't put up enough points outscore the other team.
What you should expect: Auburn plays in the SEC west, which is somehow even more loaded than it was last year. Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi State are all solid top 25 teams this year, not to mention at least one very good team from the east (South Carolina). Auburn might be a decent team in other conferences, but expect them to get lost in the mix of incredible talent that is the SEC West. They could manage to squeak by Mississippi State at home in week 2, but @SCAR, @Arkansas, @LSU, and @Georgia are all games they will most likely drop. Don't forget a loss to a far superior Alabama team in the Iron Bowl. Factor in a probable 1-1 record between hosting Florida and visiting Clemson, and you're looking at team one year removed from a national championship that could very well end up at 6-6... or worse.
Georgia
Why they could contend: Nabbing the top runningback in the country always helps your offense go, and the bulldogs have an above average defense led by guys like linebacker Jarvis Jones, who was recently cleared by the NCAA to play for Georgia this year. With many of the defensive pieces falling into place, and an incredibly friendly SEC schedule, it looks like Georgia could finally be back to their 10 win form that dominated the SEC for most of the last decade, but mysteriously disappeared for the last few years.
Why they won't contend: Sure, the dawgs grabbed the top runningback, but huge holes in their offensive line aren't going to support the inexperienced true freshman very much. And if he gets injured, Georgia's RB depth is shallower than the kiddie pool at your neighborhood recreational facilities. Either way, Georgia's offense is already going to be pretty one-dimensional, with the pass attack averaging a very low yards-per-attempt mark the last few years; the departure of receiver AJ Green isn't gonna help that stat either. If SEC teams start loading the box against Georgia's run, it could be trouble- and it appears that the team doesnt have the star power at receiver to keep defenses honest.
What you should expect: Georgia is going to stumble out of the gate. Even though the Boise State Broncos will yet again traverse the country to play an east coast AQ team, and even though I seriously doubt their ability to pull away with a win, the boys from Idaho have a reputation for pulling out wins against upper level teams. Georgia could win a game against Boise... or it could drop it. Either way, I don't see them beating South Carolina one week later, and the game against Mississippi State is a toss up too. Tennessee is a bit of a trap game because the Vols match up well against the dawgs, and Florida is never a gimme game. Between those five games, I expect Georgia to go 2-3. An incredibly easy SOS will probably allow the bulldawgs to win at least 6 of their remaining 7 games, and they will probably wind up somewhere around
8-5 or 9-4. The bulldawgs will be denied another ten win season, but the uptick in ticket sales, program interest, and wins will save Mark Richt's job.
Tomorrow I start my top 20 countdown. Keep it here for more college football!
While I'll be taking a look at my top 20 for the rest of the week, I wanted to talk a little bit today about teams you shouldn't expect to see in my rankings. Because of the scale of the top 25 polls, many voters often fill the voids with power teams that are traditionally good from year to year because of the lack of information. Sometimes they just carry teams over that were successful the previous year- it's just the nature of the game. So I spent the better part of the last seven days compiling information, and now I'm ready to give you the filler teams from most polls that you should ignore, at least for now, until they prove themselves in the coming weeks:
TEXAS
Why they could contend: It's really the same reason why they could contend every year. Texas lies in the heart of one of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country. When you mix four and five star recruits with top-of-the-line facilities, you always have the ability to be a pretty solid team. Many of the same pieces are still in place from last year too, which means more experienced players are around to improve on the Longhorn's 2010 5-7 campaign.
Why they won't contend: What's changed since last year? Coaches have been switched around, but it's primarily the same offense, same defense, and most of the same players that didn't jel. Mainly, it's the presence of quarterback Garrett Gilbert, who just isn't that great of a leader or player. Unlike most bigtime signalcallers, Gilbert really lacks the inner fire that drive most of these college football stars... watching him is not exciting. He lacks a lot of confidence, and that carries over and affects the play of his teammates. A loaded quarterback stable, including Colt McCoy's little brother, is going to put some pressure on Gilbert to play better this year, but don't expect much to be different.
What you should expect: Expect the record to be a little better; don't expect the team to be much better. I expect Texas to drop at least three conference games (expect the longhorns to go 1-3 out of games @Missouri, @A&M, Oklahoma, OkSt) plus their road game at UCLA. An 8-4 record is enough to get Texas into a lower tier bowl game, but I expect a fired up team with less talent to come in and steal a victory. Texas will end its season 8-5: a step in the right direction after a losing season for Mack Brown but still far from where expectations lie in the heart of longhorn nation.
Notre Dame
Why they could contend: The installation of former Cincinatti coach Brian Kelly has Notre Dame heading toward a Recruiting Rennaissance. In many ways, BK has been made out to be the Messiah that the Fighting Irish need, and that could still very well prove true. BK fervor has attracted a lot of young talent to South Bend, and the defense that Notre Dame puts forth should be above average this year. On the offensive side of the ball, Brian Kelly is a mastermind of putting points on the board, and any offense he's commanding has to be given some respect.
Why they won't contend: Departures from last year's offense already have hurt the Irish. They retain their best wide receiver, but serious off the field/mentality issues may threaten his ability to contribute. Possibly the most worrisome preseason problem plaguing the Notre Dame offense is the giant quarterback controversy. Four different athletes are all competing for their chance to call the signals for the offense, but Brian Kelly has decided to not make a decision in the immediate future. Instead, he will wait until ten days before the team's first game to decide who will be leading the offense- a highly risky move that could create serious controversy and consternation in the backfield.
What you should expect: Kelly is building Notre Dame into a contender, but the Irish aren't quite there yet. Look for a very underrated and speedy South Florida team to come in and shock Notre Dame in the very first weekend, setting the home upset tone for the remainder of the year. The Irish also host, among other teams, Boston College, USC, Air Force, and Michigan State. I expect them to go 2-2 against these four teams. I also think they will drop games at Pitt and Stanford, thus finishing the season at 7-5. Though technically it's a worse finish than their 8-4 mark from last year, Kelly is going in the right direction and the program will reascend to greater heights in the next few years.
TCU
Why they could contend: Coach Gary Patterson has escalated TCU's football program to a new level. They are constantly in the national spotlight and have established a tradition of excellence in the last 10-15 years. This much is obvious, seeing as they were recently invited to join an AQ conference. The AQ invitation only helped to create more hype around the program, and recruits have been flooding to the horned frogs in waves. Patterson has consistenly put together tough defenses that are capable of allowing this team to hang around with anyone.
Why they won't contend: Don't get me wrong- the defense is still good. But it's not quite the same as it was in the previous few years. The linebacker positions are still a huge strength for the horned frogs, but heavy depletions on the front d-line as well as in the secondary have left the defense slightly more vulnerable. I'm not saying the recruits aren't capable in their own right- they certainly are- but this won't be the same defense that halted the insane power-running game of Wisconsin in last year's Rose Bowl. On the other side of the ball, celebrated TCU quarterback Andy Dalton has graduated and declared for the NFL draft, and the heir to his position is probably not quite as skilled as he was at running the TCU offense. Finally, the Mountain West did the frogs no scheduling favors in their last year in the conference before their move to the big east. TCU must face an early challenge at Baylor, and travel to both Boise and San Diego State. These and other road challenges could put a damper on the expectations for Patterson's squad; a perfect season repeat is pretty unlikely.
What you should expect: TCU probably drops two games at the minimum, probably even three. They still get to go to a bowl game, where they will likely dominate some lesser AQ team from the middle of their conference. TCU grabs another 10+ win season as they leave the mountain west for the big east, but the comparison to last year's undefeated Rose Bowl winners leaves frog fans yearning for just a little bit more.
Michigan State
Why they could contend: Quarterback Kirk Cousins in a winner. The Spartan stable of runningbacks is formiddable, there's no question. Though this team did get absolutely walloped by an angry Alabama team in last year's Capital One bowl, they were still a very solid group that shared the Big Ten title. A big portion of that experienced, skilled team returns. So why wouldn't they be able to put it together this year?
Why they won't contend: The Spartans took a pretty big hit to their front 7 on the defensive side of the ball, which might make many of their games this year into more of a shootout. Cousins and his runningbacks are very good, but at the same time... if you had to choose an offense to win you a shootout, would Michigan State's immediately come to mind? In addition, much of MSU's success last year was thanks to an incredibly favorable schedule. As nice as last year's was, this year's is just the opposite. The Spartans play some serious cupcakes in their non-conference, and probably won't be ready for their first road game at Notre Dame. Don't bet on that game folks- it could go either way. If the Spartans can escape South Bend with the W, they must soon travel to Ohio State- another game that could go either way because of the multiple player suspensions Ohio State will suffer from for their first five games (MSU is OSU's fifth game). The spartans do get to host both Michigan and Wisconsin, but they must later travel to Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern. By the end of the season, I think MSU's runningbacks get eaten up by injuries because of the lack of other playmakers, and the Spartans drop at least 4 games. They do make a bowl game at 8-4, but surprisingly drop their postseason game to a lesser team to finish 8-5.
Auburn
Why they could contend: Any time a team wins a national championship, their recruiting skyrockets. While Auburn's recruiting hasn't been nearly as good as other recent national champions (many of their desired recruits have jumped ship to conference rival Florida or archrival Alabama), they've still had a solid intake of young talent to keep the wins coming in.
Why they won't contend: Can you honestly name an offensive player from last year's national championship team besides Cam Newton? It's harder than you think. Auburn's defense was great last year; with the loss of Nick Fairley and others to the NFL draft, it reverts to just good. As for the offense, it was 100% powered by the versatility of Cam Newton. The SEC is not a league often associated with dual threat quarterbacks (it's more of a big 12/ACC thing, and the big east gets some good ones every once in a while too), so when a team gets a Cam Newton or a Tim Tebow that has any amount of running talent at all... forget about it. You couple that with a good defense and you've perfected the formula for a national championship team. With the loss of Auburn's home run hitting ability, their offense will slack back into the mediocrity of three years ago. It doesn't matter if you have a good defense when your offense can't put up enough points outscore the other team.
What you should expect: Auburn plays in the SEC west, which is somehow even more loaded than it was last year. Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi State are all solid top 25 teams this year, not to mention at least one very good team from the east (South Carolina). Auburn might be a decent team in other conferences, but expect them to get lost in the mix of incredible talent that is the SEC West. They could manage to squeak by Mississippi State at home in week 2, but @SCAR, @Arkansas, @LSU, and @Georgia are all games they will most likely drop. Don't forget a loss to a far superior Alabama team in the Iron Bowl. Factor in a probable 1-1 record between hosting Florida and visiting Clemson, and you're looking at team one year removed from a national championship that could very well end up at 6-6... or worse.
Georgia
Why they could contend: Nabbing the top runningback in the country always helps your offense go, and the bulldogs have an above average defense led by guys like linebacker Jarvis Jones, who was recently cleared by the NCAA to play for Georgia this year. With many of the defensive pieces falling into place, and an incredibly friendly SEC schedule, it looks like Georgia could finally be back to their 10 win form that dominated the SEC for most of the last decade, but mysteriously disappeared for the last few years.
Why they won't contend: Sure, the dawgs grabbed the top runningback, but huge holes in their offensive line aren't going to support the inexperienced true freshman very much. And if he gets injured, Georgia's RB depth is shallower than the kiddie pool at your neighborhood recreational facilities. Either way, Georgia's offense is already going to be pretty one-dimensional, with the pass attack averaging a very low yards-per-attempt mark the last few years; the departure of receiver AJ Green isn't gonna help that stat either. If SEC teams start loading the box against Georgia's run, it could be trouble- and it appears that the team doesnt have the star power at receiver to keep defenses honest.
What you should expect: Georgia is going to stumble out of the gate. Even though the Boise State Broncos will yet again traverse the country to play an east coast AQ team, and even though I seriously doubt their ability to pull away with a win, the boys from Idaho have a reputation for pulling out wins against upper level teams. Georgia could win a game against Boise... or it could drop it. Either way, I don't see them beating South Carolina one week later, and the game against Mississippi State is a toss up too. Tennessee is a bit of a trap game because the Vols match up well against the dawgs, and Florida is never a gimme game. Between those five games, I expect Georgia to go 2-3. An incredibly easy SOS will probably allow the bulldawgs to win at least 6 of their remaining 7 games, and they will probably wind up somewhere around
8-5 or 9-4. The bulldawgs will be denied another ten win season, but the uptick in ticket sales, program interest, and wins will save Mark Richt's job.
Tomorrow I start my top 20 countdown. Keep it here for more college football!
Thursday, July 28, 2011
The Sixth Man: NBA Point Guards
Anybody missing basketball yet? Let's talk point guards ala one of ESPN's latest roundtable discussions.
1. Who's the best point guard in the NBA today?
Maybe this time last year I would have said Rondo- despite his flaws, I love purist point guards, and he's as pure as they come-but this year's playoffs made me think twice. Chris Paul is a machine. Be honest, did you expect the hornets to contend as much as they did in this year's playoffs? They may have lost 4-2, but they were in every single game down to the wire, and it was probably the most purely entertaining from a basketball standpoint- as opposed to the off-the-court-storyline standpoint that surrounded the Heat-Mavs final series. CP3's postseason play this year was absolutely superhuman, a wonder to behold, an instant highlight reel from start to finish. He elevated a shaky offensive club into an efficiency machine with a combination of leadership, distribution, shot selection, and energy that is incredibly rare. He's the general I want leading my army on the floor over anyone else in the NBA today.
2. Who's the most underrated point guard in the NBA today?
Part of me wants to say Stephen Curry, but he's still putting the pieces together/learning to actually play defense. (If you want proof of that, consider that the warriors were in the top 2 practically all year in points allowed, right up there with the Knicks) Part of me also wants to say John Wall, because he played incredibly all year, but the hype surrounding him only lasted about six games until he nabbed his first triple-double. I'm going with a guy already pretty far up the food chain- Deron Williams. He's a fantasy basketball staple and a frequent offender on the highlight reels, but as a fellow blogger stated, "analysts and experts alike seem to develop amnesia when discussing the league's best point guards." D-Will gets in there and does his job. He often times doesn't have the Hollywood touch, but he puts up beyond solid numbers night in and night out and is as reliable as they come. He is undervalued, even as a perceived franchise player.
3. Who's the most overrated point guard in the NBA today?
I've been saying this forever- Chauncey Billups. When the big Nugs-Knicks trade happened, I really thought that New York came out on the wrong end of it. Many people I talked to assured me that I was overreacting and that a big asset that New York had gained was Chauncey Billups. I really never understood what was so great about him, and now that we're almost six months, half a season, and one playoff session later... well, I still don't. The guy plays mediocre defense, he's proan to having off nights just as often as he has good nights, and he doesn't have the leadership of a Dwayne Wade or other elite point guards. He gets a rap from the media and others of being a top tier guard when I would only put him as above average.
4. Who's the most promising point guard in the NBA?
I think John Wall has somehow become a cliche answer to this question by now, but I'm still going with the youngin from Kentucky. His athleticism alone puts him above other young point guards, and he's picked up some serious battle experience in his first year with the wizards- much more than your average NBA freshman would. I would have liked to at least gotten to consider Kyrie Irving for this question, but the hard truth is that Irving hasn't even played half a season of college basketball. As talented as he looks, he's beyond untested. I hold him responsible for Duke's loss to Arizona in the sweet sixteen, and I'm not sure I can look past his selfishness and lack of understanding of the game that I witnessed in that sweet sixteen loss. Until he can prove me wrong in the NBA, J-Wall is my guy.
5. Who's the best point guard of all time?
Jerry West, call me unbiased. He's the logo, Mr. Clutch, one of the all time greats who had as much talent as he did class. He literally did it all and inspired so many of the other all time greats, playing in the 60's and 70's. However, the position he played is rather ambiguous, so I suppose I have to give another answer that is a definitive point guard. That person has to be Magic Johnson. Magic had every skill set imaginable and was still the pinnacle of humility and grace outside of the basketball arena. His combination play will probably never be seen again.
1. Who's the best point guard in the NBA today?
Maybe this time last year I would have said Rondo- despite his flaws, I love purist point guards, and he's as pure as they come-but this year's playoffs made me think twice. Chris Paul is a machine. Be honest, did you expect the hornets to contend as much as they did in this year's playoffs? They may have lost 4-2, but they were in every single game down to the wire, and it was probably the most purely entertaining from a basketball standpoint- as opposed to the off-the-court-storyline standpoint that surrounded the Heat-Mavs final series. CP3's postseason play this year was absolutely superhuman, a wonder to behold, an instant highlight reel from start to finish. He elevated a shaky offensive club into an efficiency machine with a combination of leadership, distribution, shot selection, and energy that is incredibly rare. He's the general I want leading my army on the floor over anyone else in the NBA today.
2. Who's the most underrated point guard in the NBA today?
Part of me wants to say Stephen Curry, but he's still putting the pieces together/learning to actually play defense. (If you want proof of that, consider that the warriors were in the top 2 practically all year in points allowed, right up there with the Knicks) Part of me also wants to say John Wall, because he played incredibly all year, but the hype surrounding him only lasted about six games until he nabbed his first triple-double. I'm going with a guy already pretty far up the food chain- Deron Williams. He's a fantasy basketball staple and a frequent offender on the highlight reels, but as a fellow blogger stated, "analysts and experts alike seem to develop amnesia when discussing the league's best point guards." D-Will gets in there and does his job. He often times doesn't have the Hollywood touch, but he puts up beyond solid numbers night in and night out and is as reliable as they come. He is undervalued, even as a perceived franchise player.
3. Who's the most overrated point guard in the NBA today?
I've been saying this forever- Chauncey Billups. When the big Nugs-Knicks trade happened, I really thought that New York came out on the wrong end of it. Many people I talked to assured me that I was overreacting and that a big asset that New York had gained was Chauncey Billups. I really never understood what was so great about him, and now that we're almost six months, half a season, and one playoff session later... well, I still don't. The guy plays mediocre defense, he's proan to having off nights just as often as he has good nights, and he doesn't have the leadership of a Dwayne Wade or other elite point guards. He gets a rap from the media and others of being a top tier guard when I would only put him as above average.
4. Who's the most promising point guard in the NBA?
I think John Wall has somehow become a cliche answer to this question by now, but I'm still going with the youngin from Kentucky. His athleticism alone puts him above other young point guards, and he's picked up some serious battle experience in his first year with the wizards- much more than your average NBA freshman would. I would have liked to at least gotten to consider Kyrie Irving for this question, but the hard truth is that Irving hasn't even played half a season of college basketball. As talented as he looks, he's beyond untested. I hold him responsible for Duke's loss to Arizona in the sweet sixteen, and I'm not sure I can look past his selfishness and lack of understanding of the game that I witnessed in that sweet sixteen loss. Until he can prove me wrong in the NBA, J-Wall is my guy.
5. Who's the best point guard of all time?
Jerry West, call me unbiased. He's the logo, Mr. Clutch, one of the all time greats who had as much talent as he did class. He literally did it all and inspired so many of the other all time greats, playing in the 60's and 70's. However, the position he played is rather ambiguous, so I suppose I have to give another answer that is a definitive point guard. That person has to be Magic Johnson. Magic had every skill set imaginable and was still the pinnacle of humility and grace outside of the basketball arena. His combination play will probably never be seen again.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
A Tale of Two Cities (and their football teams)
A comfortably warm Sunday afternoon in late September could have held many wonders for me last fall. A month into school, my roommates and I had developed a system- wake up by 10, brunch by 11, Super Smash Brothers immediately following brunch. Maybe then we would go outside and throw a frisbee or football. We would sometimes play xbox. Usually by 1, we would turn on NBC or Fox to watch football and keep up with the fantasy football league that we all played in together. Many people had unfinished homework or studying, so friends would come and go as they please from my room, which was deemed the unofficial hangout spot for the year when my roommate Justin bought a 37 inch flatscreen the second day of school.
On this particular day, we had finished watching all the afternoon football we cared for and had already eaten an abnormally early dinner. We sat passing an Xbox controller around with Modern Warfare 2 popped in the console. Small talk was in no short supply as we jumped from topic to topic, when my good friend Brian asked me a hypothetical sports question that was sure to be controversial from the moment it left his mouth.
"Chase, if JMU ever played West Virginia in football, who would you cheer for?"
I opened my mouth to respond, but no answer came to mind. It was a difficult question, one that I was surprised I had never thought about before. We had all just experienced the euphoria that was 21-16, JMU upsetting Virginia Tech in vaunted Lane Stadium. We all remembered what it felt like to slay Goliath. It was even more personally exciting for me because I have loathed Tech ever since I was running around tailgating WVU-VT games as an 8 year old- but an upset of that size feels good no matter who you're besting on the astroturf. I was never prouder to be a JMU student than on September 11, 2010.
And yet... could I really cheer against West Virginia, the University I grew up living around and driving five miles down the road to their home games? Could I really cheer against my heritage, having descended from a family that is 100% born and bred from the country roads of the 35th state in the Union? When it came down to it, would I be capable of betraying my past for my present?
And yet how could I not cheer for JMU? It's the school I love to be a part of, my home, the place where I feel safest... Harrisonburg and the university that resides there is the Hogwarts to my Harry. How could I wish them to lose when the benefits of a second epic upset would be undescribably monumental?
Lost in thought, I guess I hadn't realized that the whole room was waiting for my answer. My friends will be the first to tell you that my love of West Virginia sports sometimes blurs the tight line between diehard fandom and creepy obsession, so my answer to this supposedly hypothetical question would be as interesting a conversational topic as could be found.
"I... I'm not sure." It was a total copout. I know the answer all of my friends were waiting for, but I honestly wasn't sure which way I would lean. "I don't think I could ever know for sure until I was in that moment, you know? I think if I was at the game, I would know what I was feeling, but not until then." Satisfied with my answer, I went back to my game... but I think I was the only one that was satisfied. I took solace in the fact that I would probably never have to face a situation where I would have to choose which of my two schools I would cheer for, and more importantly, which one I would cheer against...
Probably.
That is until this week, when it was officially announced that WVU will play JMU in football on September 15, 2012 at FedEx field, home of the Washington Redskins. There have been pretty solid rumors floating around for a couple weeks now, but the confirmation came early this week that the game will definitely happen. The good news, regardless of my feelings or who I wish to cheer for, is that both teams will come out of this game with significantly heavier pockets. Both teams are guarenteed a flat rate, which additional incentives available depending on the amount of tickets sold. FedEx, which is actually the largest NFL stadium in the country with something like 95,000 seating capacity, will be hard to fill for a college game which will see a regional powerhouse play an FCS powerhouse. And yet... WVU fans travel very well, and JMU alumni are all over the Washington DC area (if you need proof, think about how hard it is to go out on a weekend and NOT find someone from nova). Will this sell out? Still, probably not. But don't underestimate the turnout for this game. Most importantly, JMU students, fans, and alumni, make sure you buy you're tickets through a proper vendor (such as the school), as opposed to scalping them or buying them the day of if it's not sold out, etc... remember, the school gets extra incentives if we hit a certain mark, so make sure you're ticket is counted as a JMU ticket!
Anyway, back to me. What the hell am I going to do? I haven't heard from my buddy Brian because we've both been busy this summer (and Pennsylvania isn't within reasonable driving distance for the 60 hour a week worker), but I'm sure a big smirk lit up his face when he heard the news. September, 2012? That's my senior year people. I don't want to be dealing with this kind of conflict my last year of college! Possibly more importantly, it's WVU quarterback Geno Smith's senior year. Smith is considered even as a junior to be a fringe Heisman contender- a loss to JMU would all but eliminate him from Heisman consideration. WVU would also be eliminated from National Championship contention, a possibility starting this year and, as far as I'm concerned, continuing every year as long as high-octane Holgorsen is around as Head Coach.
But of course I want JMU's program to flourish! I can't cheer against them!
Of course my friends from school are putting all kinds of pressure on me to cheer for JMU. Meanwhile, I'm getting texts from family members like "don't forget where your roots are!" or "remember, you were in morgantown 10 years before you were in harrisonburg!" It's clearly an impossible situation; unless they bring ties back to college football, I'm stuck between a mountain and a hard place.
They say old habits die hard. But until I can bring myself to make that decision, I plan to make a custom shirt for this game. Blue will be on the right, right next to old gold, which will fade into regular gold, which will be next to purple. I'm still working on the words.
For now, I have spent two years in Morgantown and two years in Harrisonburg. I have one foot firmly planted in each city, and I don't expect to step either way any time soon... but I do wish each school the best of luck. I can promise that, come Spetember 15, 2012, I will be the loudest one screaming in all of Landover, Maryland- though for who, I still don't know.
On this particular day, we had finished watching all the afternoon football we cared for and had already eaten an abnormally early dinner. We sat passing an Xbox controller around with Modern Warfare 2 popped in the console. Small talk was in no short supply as we jumped from topic to topic, when my good friend Brian asked me a hypothetical sports question that was sure to be controversial from the moment it left his mouth.
"Chase, if JMU ever played West Virginia in football, who would you cheer for?"
I opened my mouth to respond, but no answer came to mind. It was a difficult question, one that I was surprised I had never thought about before. We had all just experienced the euphoria that was 21-16, JMU upsetting Virginia Tech in vaunted Lane Stadium. We all remembered what it felt like to slay Goliath. It was even more personally exciting for me because I have loathed Tech ever since I was running around tailgating WVU-VT games as an 8 year old- but an upset of that size feels good no matter who you're besting on the astroturf. I was never prouder to be a JMU student than on September 11, 2010.
And yet... could I really cheer against West Virginia, the University I grew up living around and driving five miles down the road to their home games? Could I really cheer against my heritage, having descended from a family that is 100% born and bred from the country roads of the 35th state in the Union? When it came down to it, would I be capable of betraying my past for my present?
And yet how could I not cheer for JMU? It's the school I love to be a part of, my home, the place where I feel safest... Harrisonburg and the university that resides there is the Hogwarts to my Harry. How could I wish them to lose when the benefits of a second epic upset would be undescribably monumental?
Lost in thought, I guess I hadn't realized that the whole room was waiting for my answer. My friends will be the first to tell you that my love of West Virginia sports sometimes blurs the tight line between diehard fandom and creepy obsession, so my answer to this supposedly hypothetical question would be as interesting a conversational topic as could be found.
"I... I'm not sure." It was a total copout. I know the answer all of my friends were waiting for, but I honestly wasn't sure which way I would lean. "I don't think I could ever know for sure until I was in that moment, you know? I think if I was at the game, I would know what I was feeling, but not until then." Satisfied with my answer, I went back to my game... but I think I was the only one that was satisfied. I took solace in the fact that I would probably never have to face a situation where I would have to choose which of my two schools I would cheer for, and more importantly, which one I would cheer against...
Probably.
That is until this week, when it was officially announced that WVU will play JMU in football on September 15, 2012 at FedEx field, home of the Washington Redskins. There have been pretty solid rumors floating around for a couple weeks now, but the confirmation came early this week that the game will definitely happen. The good news, regardless of my feelings or who I wish to cheer for, is that both teams will come out of this game with significantly heavier pockets. Both teams are guarenteed a flat rate, which additional incentives available depending on the amount of tickets sold. FedEx, which is actually the largest NFL stadium in the country with something like 95,000 seating capacity, will be hard to fill for a college game which will see a regional powerhouse play an FCS powerhouse. And yet... WVU fans travel very well, and JMU alumni are all over the Washington DC area (if you need proof, think about how hard it is to go out on a weekend and NOT find someone from nova). Will this sell out? Still, probably not. But don't underestimate the turnout for this game. Most importantly, JMU students, fans, and alumni, make sure you buy you're tickets through a proper vendor (such as the school), as opposed to scalping them or buying them the day of if it's not sold out, etc... remember, the school gets extra incentives if we hit a certain mark, so make sure you're ticket is counted as a JMU ticket!
Anyway, back to me. What the hell am I going to do? I haven't heard from my buddy Brian because we've both been busy this summer (and Pennsylvania isn't within reasonable driving distance for the 60 hour a week worker), but I'm sure a big smirk lit up his face when he heard the news. September, 2012? That's my senior year people. I don't want to be dealing with this kind of conflict my last year of college! Possibly more importantly, it's WVU quarterback Geno Smith's senior year. Smith is considered even as a junior to be a fringe Heisman contender- a loss to JMU would all but eliminate him from Heisman consideration. WVU would also be eliminated from National Championship contention, a possibility starting this year and, as far as I'm concerned, continuing every year as long as high-octane Holgorsen is around as Head Coach.
But of course I want JMU's program to flourish! I can't cheer against them!
Of course my friends from school are putting all kinds of pressure on me to cheer for JMU. Meanwhile, I'm getting texts from family members like "don't forget where your roots are!" or "remember, you were in morgantown 10 years before you were in harrisonburg!" It's clearly an impossible situation; unless they bring ties back to college football, I'm stuck between a mountain and a hard place.
They say old habits die hard. But until I can bring myself to make that decision, I plan to make a custom shirt for this game. Blue will be on the right, right next to old gold, which will fade into regular gold, which will be next to purple. I'm still working on the words.
For now, I have spent two years in Morgantown and two years in Harrisonburg. I have one foot firmly planted in each city, and I don't expect to step either way any time soon... but I do wish each school the best of luck. I can promise that, come Spetember 15, 2012, I will be the loudest one screaming in all of Landover, Maryland- though for who, I still don't know.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
10 Things: Football in July
I'm enjoying some much needed time off work, and you know what that means, readers... time for some blogging. Here are ten things you may want to know (but might not) to keep up with this year's college football offseason, which is rapidly coming to a close.
1. By now, probably every person in the country has heard something or other about the Ohio State scandal of epic proportions. Following the departure of quarterback Terrelle Pryor and Head Coach Jim Tressel, Ohio State has vacated any and all wins from the 2010-2011 football season. This has various implications for the program, the most amusing of which is that Ohio State remains 0-9 against SEC schools in bowl games. Have a chuckle, readers. THAT is funny. Even when they win, they still don't win.
2. It was relatively easy to not hear the dull roar of yet another scandal, this one rising out of Eugene, amidst the loud noise coming out of Columbus, Ohio. However, the Oregon Ducks now are in the thick of an NCAA investigation centering around Willie Lyles, a "consultant" who exchanged recruiting information on various high school players (such as LaMichael James, Oregon's whiplash-inducing runningback) across 22 states for $25,000 cash. As the story unfolds and details are slowly released, it seems that the Lyles payment was less about recruiting information and more about recruiting access. Information seems to point to the conclusion that Lyles sent recruiting information as a red herring to throw any investigators from the NCAA off the trail of what he was really doing. His real job seemed to be providing schools with an inside track to recruits, a clear violation of NCAA rules. He provided schools with detailed information on what prospective recruits liked. He also allegedly used his influence over high school players to push them in the direction of schools who were playing him. The investigation has centered around Oregon, but LSU and Cal have also come forward and admitted to paying the man. Because of their openness, LSU and Cal are likely to receive minimal/nonexistant NCAA sanctions. However, a coverup seems to have occurred at the University of Oregon regarding this matter, and the NCAA will most likely come down hard on the football program just as they did when Ohio State's program attempted a cover up of NCAA violations.
3. This year's College Football Hall of Fame inductions included Charles Haley, a 5-time superbowl winner from the 49'ers and Cowboys. His significance on this blog is due to the fact that he played his college ball at none other than James Madison University from 1982-1985. In 1986, he became the first Duke to ever be drafted to the NFL, and he is still the career tackles leader at JMU 25 years after his graduation.
4. Alabama is certainly having a difficult offseason. Two weeks ago, Coach Nick Saban suspended freshman Keiwone Malone and sophomore Darrington Sentimore for an "unspecified team rule violation." In general, this usually means they failed a drug test for marijuana. Safety Robby Green also left the team after being suspended by the NCAA. Alabama transfer Aaron Douglas died in May from what seems to be a drug overdose at a party. Most recently, they lost arguably their top incoming recruit, runningback Demetrius Hart, to a season-ending knee injury. Alabama is being highly regarded as back to their 2009 national championship form, and these injuries certainly won't help them... then again, a bunch of people thought they'd repeat as national champions last year, and that certainly didn't happen.
5. Former Michigan quarterback Tate Forcier, whocried like the spoiled brat that he is and complained to his daddy when Denard Robinson proved he was a much better quarterback than him left the football program in Ann Arbor when he lost his starting job he had held as a freshman in 2009, is looking to transfer down to San Jose State or Hawaii. Forcier is certainly not an All-American, but will probably exceed all expectation of a typical Western Athletic Conference quarterback. Pay attention to the school he transfer to- they will post likely have a prolific air attack. Forcier has one heck of a canon for an arm.
6. The NCAA has accepted West Virginia's self-imposed sanctions regarding multiple allegations of improper oversight in the Rich Rodriguez era. WVU took away two of their own 2010 scholarships and one of their scholarships from the upcoming school year. They also placed themselves on two years probation. The NCAA did not deem additional sanctions were necessary, so they accepted the self-imposed punishment that AD Oliver Luck suggested. I speak for all fans of the athletic program when I say that this was the best possible outcome to the situation.
7. Dual-threat quarterback Russell Wilson from NC State has left the school and transferred to Wisconsin. Many people consider the addition of a quarterback who is very mobile to an already prolific running-based offense will catapult Wisconsin into the Big 10 preseason favorite conversation. I am a little more skeptical- I'd like to see how the ACC standout fares against a Big 10 line before I crown the Badgers.
8. The NFL recently counted down their top 100 current players.... Guess which AQ leagues did the best? Believe it or not (and most of you will not), the Big East led the top 6 leagues with 16 players. Mind you, this is the Big East including pre-2003-draft players from Miami and Virginia Tech, as they were still in the league at that time, but it's the Big East nonetheless. The list also featured 12 ACC players. Many criticize these two leagues for their "toughness," particularly in years like 2010 when both leagues experienced a down year. Expect the ACC to bounce back a little this year, and the Big East to come back in a big way. WVU and USF will both be competitors on the national scale.
9. The Director's Cup is awarded to a school every year that outpeforms all other schools in 20 sports, ten male and ten female. Stanford recently won for the 17th year in a row- with Stanford's very average basketball team in the forefront of many minds, it's easy to forget how dominant they were in last year's football season. One only needs to look at their postseason performance against Virginia Tech to remember how good they were, not to mention their year-after-year consistent domination in track and field. Other nearby notable teams are: #5 Duke, #6 North Carolina, #7 Virginia, #13 Penn State, #17 Maryland, #40 West Virginia, #45 Virginia Tech, #50 Villanova, #96 William and Mary, #114 James Madison.
10. Lastly, and of huge importance... In case you haven't heard, JMU will play WVU on neutral ground (FedEx field, home of the Redskins) next fall. This is precedent-setting and deserving up national attention, which it most likely will not get. But allow me to explain some of the reasons why this story is significant.
First and foremost, JMU pulled a stunning upset of Virginia Tech last year in Blacksburg, 21-16. This upset thrusted JMU onto a national upset scale for the forseeable future, and high profile games such as JMU vs UNC or JMU vs WVU will certainly receive a little bit more attention. In practical terms, more exposure means more money, and a game in an NFL stadium will mean even more potential money. While WVU will pocket a majority of the ticket sales from the game, they must then turn around and pay JMU a minimum payment of $350,000 for playing the game regardless of JMU's turnout at the game. Depending on the turnout, JMU may receive additional revenue if ticket sales for the Dukes cross a certain threshold (in other words, JMU fans, don't scalp tickets. Buy them through JMU!). The game is also important for recruiting exposure, as the Dukes' football program will gain exposure in the very large Washington DC market. Don't underestimate the large amount of alumni from JMU in the DC area- this game is a big deal, win or lose.
I will, as many of you might have already guessed, be writing a more personal entry regarding the JMU-WVU saga. Hope you all look forward to that piece, as I will most likely be submitting it to The Breeze. Until then!
1. By now, probably every person in the country has heard something or other about the Ohio State scandal of epic proportions. Following the departure of quarterback Terrelle Pryor and Head Coach Jim Tressel, Ohio State has vacated any and all wins from the 2010-2011 football season. This has various implications for the program, the most amusing of which is that Ohio State remains 0-9 against SEC schools in bowl games. Have a chuckle, readers. THAT is funny. Even when they win, they still don't win.
2. It was relatively easy to not hear the dull roar of yet another scandal, this one rising out of Eugene, amidst the loud noise coming out of Columbus, Ohio. However, the Oregon Ducks now are in the thick of an NCAA investigation centering around Willie Lyles, a "consultant" who exchanged recruiting information on various high school players (such as LaMichael James, Oregon's whiplash-inducing runningback) across 22 states for $25,000 cash. As the story unfolds and details are slowly released, it seems that the Lyles payment was less about recruiting information and more about recruiting access. Information seems to point to the conclusion that Lyles sent recruiting information as a red herring to throw any investigators from the NCAA off the trail of what he was really doing. His real job seemed to be providing schools with an inside track to recruits, a clear violation of NCAA rules. He provided schools with detailed information on what prospective recruits liked. He also allegedly used his influence over high school players to push them in the direction of schools who were playing him. The investigation has centered around Oregon, but LSU and Cal have also come forward and admitted to paying the man. Because of their openness, LSU and Cal are likely to receive minimal/nonexistant NCAA sanctions. However, a coverup seems to have occurred at the University of Oregon regarding this matter, and the NCAA will most likely come down hard on the football program just as they did when Ohio State's program attempted a cover up of NCAA violations.
3. This year's College Football Hall of Fame inductions included Charles Haley, a 5-time superbowl winner from the 49'ers and Cowboys. His significance on this blog is due to the fact that he played his college ball at none other than James Madison University from 1982-1985. In 1986, he became the first Duke to ever be drafted to the NFL, and he is still the career tackles leader at JMU 25 years after his graduation.
4. Alabama is certainly having a difficult offseason. Two weeks ago, Coach Nick Saban suspended freshman Keiwone Malone and sophomore Darrington Sentimore for an "unspecified team rule violation." In general, this usually means they failed a drug test for marijuana. Safety Robby Green also left the team after being suspended by the NCAA. Alabama transfer Aaron Douglas died in May from what seems to be a drug overdose at a party. Most recently, they lost arguably their top incoming recruit, runningback Demetrius Hart, to a season-ending knee injury. Alabama is being highly regarded as back to their 2009 national championship form, and these injuries certainly won't help them... then again, a bunch of people thought they'd repeat as national champions last year, and that certainly didn't happen.
5. Former Michigan quarterback Tate Forcier, who
6. The NCAA has accepted West Virginia's self-imposed sanctions regarding multiple allegations of improper oversight in the Rich Rodriguez era. WVU took away two of their own 2010 scholarships and one of their scholarships from the upcoming school year. They also placed themselves on two years probation. The NCAA did not deem additional sanctions were necessary, so they accepted the self-imposed punishment that AD Oliver Luck suggested. I speak for all fans of the athletic program when I say that this was the best possible outcome to the situation.
7. Dual-threat quarterback Russell Wilson from NC State has left the school and transferred to Wisconsin. Many people consider the addition of a quarterback who is very mobile to an already prolific running-based offense will catapult Wisconsin into the Big 10 preseason favorite conversation. I am a little more skeptical- I'd like to see how the ACC standout fares against a Big 10 line before I crown the Badgers.
8. The NFL recently counted down their top 100 current players.... Guess which AQ leagues did the best? Believe it or not (and most of you will not), the Big East led the top 6 leagues with 16 players. Mind you, this is the Big East including pre-2003-draft players from Miami and Virginia Tech, as they were still in the league at that time, but it's the Big East nonetheless. The list also featured 12 ACC players. Many criticize these two leagues for their "toughness," particularly in years like 2010 when both leagues experienced a down year. Expect the ACC to bounce back a little this year, and the Big East to come back in a big way. WVU and USF will both be competitors on the national scale.
9. The Director's Cup is awarded to a school every year that outpeforms all other schools in 20 sports, ten male and ten female. Stanford recently won for the 17th year in a row- with Stanford's very average basketball team in the forefront of many minds, it's easy to forget how dominant they were in last year's football season. One only needs to look at their postseason performance against Virginia Tech to remember how good they were, not to mention their year-after-year consistent domination in track and field. Other nearby notable teams are: #5 Duke, #6 North Carolina, #7 Virginia, #13 Penn State, #17 Maryland, #40 West Virginia, #45 Virginia Tech, #50 Villanova, #96 William and Mary, #114 James Madison.
10. Lastly, and of huge importance... In case you haven't heard, JMU will play WVU on neutral ground (FedEx field, home of the Redskins) next fall. This is precedent-setting and deserving up national attention, which it most likely will not get. But allow me to explain some of the reasons why this story is significant.
First and foremost, JMU pulled a stunning upset of Virginia Tech last year in Blacksburg, 21-16. This upset thrusted JMU onto a national upset scale for the forseeable future, and high profile games such as JMU vs UNC or JMU vs WVU will certainly receive a little bit more attention. In practical terms, more exposure means more money, and a game in an NFL stadium will mean even more potential money. While WVU will pocket a majority of the ticket sales from the game, they must then turn around and pay JMU a minimum payment of $350,000 for playing the game regardless of JMU's turnout at the game. Depending on the turnout, JMU may receive additional revenue if ticket sales for the Dukes cross a certain threshold (in other words, JMU fans, don't scalp tickets. Buy them through JMU!). The game is also important for recruiting exposure, as the Dukes' football program will gain exposure in the very large Washington DC market. Don't underestimate the large amount of alumni from JMU in the DC area- this game is a big deal, win or lose.
I will, as many of you might have already guessed, be writing a more personal entry regarding the JMU-WVU saga. Hope you all look forward to that piece, as I will most likely be submitting it to The Breeze. Until then!
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Analyzing an Overanalysis: The LeBron James Saga Continues
Even those of us that live under rocks have figured out by now that LeBron James and the Miami Heat are in the NBA finals. That seems to be the only fact the world as a whole is sure of at the moment.
This blog entry is honestly intended to less informative and more of angry rant that will hopefully make you as engraged as I already am. Well, maybe rage isn't a good word. Frustrated. Annoyed. Disappointed that the sensationalist news tone that seems to infect political news shows have also creeped onto ESPN and other media outlets that cover sports. Have you been watching the media frenzy following the NBA finals this year? Anyone with half a brain knew that the storylines would obnoxiously revolve around any combination of the following: LeBron James being amazing, the Miami Heat big 3, Wade's second ring, Chris Bosh's role (still trying to figure out what that is on some days, to be honest), Spoelstra's redemption after a year full of criticism at the slightest mishap, Lebron James choking, Pat Riley's schemes fulfilled, Lebron James being alive, the Miami Heat bench. And did I mention Lebron James?
The truth is that never before has one team inspired a seemingly infinite amount of stories from all possible media angles. I get that. By now, I think most people get that. But for the love of all things holy on the hardwood, could we please go back to talking about the actual basketball game?
These NBA finals have been absolutely incredible. Dirk has been on a tear, despite a torn finger tendon and running a fever of 102 degrees. Are you kidding me? That's some superman stuff, the kind of side story background information that, should the mavs win the finals, doesn't just make him a ringowner... it makes you a legend. Possibly even more incredible, the entiretly of the Miami Heat has been really good. But that story has largely been overlooked in favor of overanalyzing EVERY SINGLE LITTLE THING about Lebron James. How many assists, how many points, how many ppg, how many points per quarter. I literally read a column yesterday with fictional, made up statistics regarding James' play. And while the author's point was well made, do you think I care about LeBron's LOB- the "minutes the player you're guarding is left on the bench?" Seriously?
But overanalysis is nothing new. Any professional sport's final is going to feature such overhyped journalism. No, what really grinds my gears is the rediculous kneejerk overanalysis that is going on. As of 8:58 PM on Wednesday night (when I'm writing this sentence), if you get on ESPN, you will literally find the following in order of importance and text size:
1. LeBrondown II- featuring four stories revolving around the game 4 performance of LeBron James and comparing it to the famous "game 5" from his days in cleveland. This is one of the five boxes on ESPN, and thus is looked at by nearly everyone.
2. The top headline (and being discussed on sportscenter right now, as well) of ESPN is currently that the Mav's swing player Stevenson is talking trash about LeBron James, and saying he mentally checked out of Game 4... wow.
3. Another top headline: ESPN feels it is not just newsworthy, but significantly newsworthy to tell us that Charles Barkley doesn't feel he can root for the Heat because the fans are too obnoxious for his liking.
4. A Bill Simmons column talking about how suckish LeBron James has been.
5. A Rick Reilly column talking about how amazing LeBron James has been.
And that's just the front page. Actually, that's just the front page concerning LeBron James. Don't even BOTHER looking at the special event page ESPN has created to house the NBA finals news.
I get the window on LeBron's performance. But the rest? Really? On a night where the NHL is seeing their finals game 4 (following an 8-1 victory by the team that was formerly down 2-0 in the series??) and the red sox are playing in the bronx... amid a GIGANTIC ohio state scandal that has seen their star coach and quarterback leave the program recently... right after Plaxico Burress is released from jail, and Michael Vick wants to publicly speak about their similarities... right after a pitcher from the current MLB world champions strikes out 11... all that is going on, and ESPN's top story is that a bench player was talking smack to LeBron James? And he's got a track record of talking for years? That's not news, that's a facebook status.
Oh really Charles Barkley, you can't get behind the Miami Heat? Gee, I had no idea that you didn't like them. Honestly, everyone on the planet knows you don't like them Chuck. You publicly criticize LeBron James on national television more often than you eat breakfast. My kid sister knows so little about the National Basketball Association that I'm not even sure she can spell NBA, and I bet even SHE knows that Charles Barkley doesn't like the Miami Heat.
And I'm sorry but the kneejerk journalism has gotta stop. NBA final games are at most 72 hours apart. LeBron James can't be a God in game 3 and be no better than an AAU player in game 4. No one is perfectly consistent, but this is rediculous. Writers, please get it together. You're sensationalism is so rediculous that all of us readers are going to develop a bipolar disorder pretty soon.
Analyzing an analysis is completely and utterly rediculous. And yet I feel like that level of stupidity in journalism is what perfectly describes what the media is force feeding us throughout these NBA finals. Please, I'm begging a network exec to read this and hear my plea. Stop with the reactionary sensationalism. You're making our heads hurt.
This blog entry is honestly intended to less informative and more of angry rant that will hopefully make you as engraged as I already am. Well, maybe rage isn't a good word. Frustrated. Annoyed. Disappointed that the sensationalist news tone that seems to infect political news shows have also creeped onto ESPN and other media outlets that cover sports. Have you been watching the media frenzy following the NBA finals this year? Anyone with half a brain knew that the storylines would obnoxiously revolve around any combination of the following: LeBron James being amazing, the Miami Heat big 3, Wade's second ring, Chris Bosh's role (still trying to figure out what that is on some days, to be honest), Spoelstra's redemption after a year full of criticism at the slightest mishap, Lebron James choking, Pat Riley's schemes fulfilled, Lebron James being alive, the Miami Heat bench. And did I mention Lebron James?
The truth is that never before has one team inspired a seemingly infinite amount of stories from all possible media angles. I get that. By now, I think most people get that. But for the love of all things holy on the hardwood, could we please go back to talking about the actual basketball game?
These NBA finals have been absolutely incredible. Dirk has been on a tear, despite a torn finger tendon and running a fever of 102 degrees. Are you kidding me? That's some superman stuff, the kind of side story background information that, should the mavs win the finals, doesn't just make him a ringowner... it makes you a legend. Possibly even more incredible, the entiretly of the Miami Heat has been really good. But that story has largely been overlooked in favor of overanalyzing EVERY SINGLE LITTLE THING about Lebron James. How many assists, how many points, how many ppg, how many points per quarter. I literally read a column yesterday with fictional, made up statistics regarding James' play. And while the author's point was well made, do you think I care about LeBron's LOB- the "minutes the player you're guarding is left on the bench?" Seriously?
But overanalysis is nothing new. Any professional sport's final is going to feature such overhyped journalism. No, what really grinds my gears is the rediculous kneejerk overanalysis that is going on. As of 8:58 PM on Wednesday night (when I'm writing this sentence), if you get on ESPN, you will literally find the following in order of importance and text size:
1. LeBrondown II- featuring four stories revolving around the game 4 performance of LeBron James and comparing it to the famous "game 5" from his days in cleveland. This is one of the five boxes on ESPN, and thus is looked at by nearly everyone.
2. The top headline (and being discussed on sportscenter right now, as well) of ESPN is currently that the Mav's swing player Stevenson is talking trash about LeBron James, and saying he mentally checked out of Game 4... wow.
3. Another top headline: ESPN feels it is not just newsworthy, but significantly newsworthy to tell us that Charles Barkley doesn't feel he can root for the Heat because the fans are too obnoxious for his liking.
4. A Bill Simmons column talking about how suckish LeBron James has been.
5. A Rick Reilly column talking about how amazing LeBron James has been.
And that's just the front page. Actually, that's just the front page concerning LeBron James. Don't even BOTHER looking at the special event page ESPN has created to house the NBA finals news.
I get the window on LeBron's performance. But the rest? Really? On a night where the NHL is seeing their finals game 4 (following an 8-1 victory by the team that was formerly down 2-0 in the series??) and the red sox are playing in the bronx... amid a GIGANTIC ohio state scandal that has seen their star coach and quarterback leave the program recently... right after Plaxico Burress is released from jail, and Michael Vick wants to publicly speak about their similarities... right after a pitcher from the current MLB world champions strikes out 11... all that is going on, and ESPN's top story is that a bench player was talking smack to LeBron James? And he's got a track record of talking for years? That's not news, that's a facebook status.
Oh really Charles Barkley, you can't get behind the Miami Heat? Gee, I had no idea that you didn't like them. Honestly, everyone on the planet knows you don't like them Chuck. You publicly criticize LeBron James on national television more often than you eat breakfast. My kid sister knows so little about the National Basketball Association that I'm not even sure she can spell NBA, and I bet even SHE knows that Charles Barkley doesn't like the Miami Heat.
And I'm sorry but the kneejerk journalism has gotta stop. NBA final games are at most 72 hours apart. LeBron James can't be a God in game 3 and be no better than an AAU player in game 4. No one is perfectly consistent, but this is rediculous. Writers, please get it together. You're sensationalism is so rediculous that all of us readers are going to develop a bipolar disorder pretty soon.
Analyzing an analysis is completely and utterly rediculous. And yet I feel like that level of stupidity in journalism is what perfectly describes what the media is force feeding us throughout these NBA finals. Please, I'm begging a network exec to read this and hear my plea. Stop with the reactionary sensationalism. You're making our heads hurt.
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