10 Things: Football Predictions

Today is a Tuesday, which means we're talking a little bit of NFL.  With that in mind, here are 10 predictions I have for the upcoming NFL and college football seasons:



1. The AFC will be incredibly predictable and boring.  Out of the AFC's six postseason bids, expect four of them to be repeats.  More on this down the road. 

2. The Oklahoma-FSU game will not directly impact the national championship.  Everyone is billing this as THE game of the year.  About 75% of national championship predictions this year are SEC Winner vs the winner of the Sooners and the Seminoles.  My questions is... why?  Why are we giving FSU and Oklahoma free passes for 11 weeks of the season, plus an ACC title game?  I think the Sems drop their regular season finale at Florida (watch FSU @ Clemson, too).  I think Oklahoma drops two conference games- Texas A&M and Oklahoma State.  Ultimately, I don't think either one has a chance to make the national championship game, though FSU does make a BCS bowl game. 

3. The Detroit Lions will finish with a better record than the Indianapolis Colts. This is kind of like two predictions rolled into one. First off, the colts: I'm sorry, Peyton Manning is going to miss how many weeks with a neck injury? Listen, Manning might be the best player in the NFL. Whether he is or isn't is irrelevant. What is certain, at least for me, is that Peyton Manning is the most valuable commodity to his team in the NFL. Find me a player that means more to their team than Peyton. I don't think you can. With Peyton Manning, the Colts are easily a 10, probably a 12 win team. Without him, even for 4 or 5 games? I think the Colts don't even get to .500; Houston will win the Week 1 matchup and the division. Meanwhile, I love the d-line addition of Fairley. The defense will be impressive up front. The running committee will be at least good enough to get defenses to respect it, and that's all Stafford and Megatron need. I think Detroit finishes right around .500. They don't make the playoffs, of course, with the Packers taking the only bid from the NFC North, but the franchise continues to move up.



4. The SEC's national title run will end this year.  Okay, so I guess Arkansas is pretty balanced.  But overall, I think The SEC offenses are just too weak to compete this year.  Combine that with the incredible depth of the SEC West (whose winner will inevitably beat South Carolina in the SEC title game), and you're looking at a league who will most likely not field an undefeated team.  The SEC might not even place a team in the national championship for the first time since 2006/2007.

5. The Eagles lose once again in wildcard weekend.  When I saw the Philadelphia offseason additions, I'll admit... I was impressed.  I hopped on the Superbowl or Bust media bandwagon, all too eager to crown the Eagles champs before the season even began.  But the more I researched, the more I saw the writing on the wall.  Vick really is not as amazing as everyone says.  The line has major, major holes.  People are gonna run against the eagles all day, and check out teams that will be frequently playing against them in the regular season AND the playoffs: the cowboys, redskins, and giants, three teams that feature strong running attacks.

6. Boise State will make the National Championship game.  I'm not saying I like it.  Frankly, I hate that you can play one relatively difficult game and 10 creampuffs and end up in the title conversation.  But Kellen Moore and the broncos have hung around just long enough to convince just about everybody that they are contenders regardless of what conference they play in.  They're d-line is admittedly very good, and other conferences are deep enough that most teams will not escape the regular season undefeated.  Seriously, I hope I'm wrong.  But there is a fairly significant chance that Boise runs the table when no one else does and plays for the title. 
7. The two Virginia FBS football programs will end up closer in record than most people think.  Virginia Tech is a popular outside pick to get to the national championship because the schedule is "managable."  This is, of course, another way of saying that VT doesn't play ANYONE.  Even their ACC schedule is a cakewalk.  But don't expect Tech to run the table this year- Marshall is a bit of a trap game, and I just have this gut feeling that someone in the ACC is going to upset a team with surprisingly few adept skill players.  No one runs the table in what is a rebuilding year on paper.  Meanwhile, I think Virginia is a bit of  a sleeper ACC team and will finish much better than people think.  Expect the teams to only be separated by 2 or 3 wins at the end of the year. 

8. The second place NFC East team will compete for the last wildcard bid with the third place NFC South team.  Atlanta and New Orleans both seem like locks for the playoffs.  As overrated as I find the Eagles to be, I still think they win their division.  I think the Cowboys and Bucs find themselves in a close battle down the stretch for that last playoff spot.  And if you doubt that the NFC South can't put forward three playoff teams, consider this: the fourth NFC south team is the Carolina Panthers. 

9. The Big East will have three consistently ranked teams.  West Virginia will most likely remain ranked all year because of Dana Holgorsen hype and lots of offensive talent.  South Florida will most likely jump into the fringe rankings today after their big upset of Notre Dame on the road.  I also think Cincinatti or Pitt will jump into the ranking around the end of September.  All four of those teams will at least be in the mix to be ranked for a large majority of the season.

10.  The New Orleans Saints will win their second superbowl in three years.  Pretty self explanatory.  Great offseason.  Mark Ingram is a monster.  Fantastic coach.  Drew Brees.  Enough said.