This was neither the first thing that I wanted to write about nor the last. To be honest, I feel like I go on about how not amazing Tebow is a lot to by friends and readers, and in my mind, it's with good reason. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's start at the beginning.
Week 7 of the NFL? The 1-win Broncoes are coming off a bye and traveling to winless Miami. Enter Tebow, making what we presume is his first of several starts on the year. I give some serious credit to the Denver coaching staff- if this was a drawn up conditional scenario (ie- if we are 1-4 going into the bye, let's get Tebow ready and give him a shot at Miami if they end up sucking like they have recently), then it was a brilliant strategy. In fact, it's probably the smartest thing they've done since firing Josh McDaniels. Anyway, to the game.
The following is an appropriately relevant excerpt from Bill Simmon's amazing website Grantland. I did not write this, but it very succintly describes my feelings, almost word for word. I say again. I did not write the following excerpt. 110% of credit should be given to Bill Barnwell. You know, the guy that wrote this? Because it wasn't me:
"Far be it [for me] to ruin an admittedly great story, but let's be real about the Tim Tebow plaudits being thrown around after the Broncos' 18-15 comeback over the Dolphins on Sunday. Tebow certainly deserves some of the credit, but not the massive outpouring of praise that is being thrown his way.
The Win Probability chart at advancednflstats.com for this game tells the true story of what happened. When Tebow took over on his own 20-yard line down 15 points with 5:23 left, both Broncos and Dolphins fans were leaving the stadium in Miami, and they weren't wrong to do so. The Broncos' chances of winning were estimated to be around 1 percent. Tebow proceeded to lead his most impressive drive of the day, going 80 yards in eight plays, throwing a five-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas.
For all that work, the Broncos' chances of winning had improved all the way to … 2 percent. Teams with an eight-point lead that are about to receive the kickoff simply don't lose very frequently; it takes an expected onside kick to pick it up, and teams recover expected onside kicks only about 20 percent of the time. When the Broncos were able to recover the kick, their win expectancy improved to 12 percent; the onside kick was six times more valuable than Tebow's drive. If that figure seems low, consider that the Broncos still needed to drive 50 yards, score, pick up a two-point conversion, and then win in overtime. They had momentum in their favor, but so have plenty of other teams in this scenario who haven't been able to pick up the W.
Tebow then proceeded to take advantage of a short field. Starting on his own 44-yard line, Tebow drove the team 56 yards in 10 plays, highlighted by a gorgeous 28-yard throw to (and equally impressive catch from) Daniel Fells. After that, Denver converted the two-pointer on a Tebow run1 and the Broncos' win expectancy was pushed all the way up to 46 percent. They'd made an incredible comeback, but they were still underdogs heading into overtime.
After they won the overtime coin toss and traded possessions with the Broncos, the Dolphins remained favorites. When Daniel Thomas converted a second-and-2 to give the Dolphins a new set of downs on their own 43-yard line, the Dolphins only needed to travel about 25 more yards to pick up a game-winning field goal. They win an estimated 67 percent of the time in that situation.
That, of course, led to the final dramatic swing. Broncos linebacker D.J. Williams sacked Matt Moore on the ensuing play, producing a single-play swing that was bigger than any of Tebow's drives. The Broncos went from a win expectancy of 33 percent to 78 percent by recovering the fumble, and while they proceeded to gain only two yards on the subsequent drive, they converted another short field into points to win the game.
On Sunday, Tim Tebow was given a total of 15 possessions. Four of them started with 56 yards or less to go for an offensive touchdown. Not coincidentally, of the four, three were his final three drives, and he produced a total of 11 points on those drives. His other 11 drives all started deep in his own territory, with six of them beginning on the 20-yard line and only one beyond the 25 (a drive that started on the Miami 41 that resulted in a missed field goal). Ten of those drives resulted in eight punts, a missed field goal, and a fumble. They gained, on average, less than 12 yards.
This isn't a one-week trend, either. When he came in against the Chargers last Sunday, Tebow started with three consecutive drives inside his own 31-yard line. The Broncos punted on all three drives. On the ensuing two possessions, though, Tebow started from his own 49-yard line and the San Diego 41-yard line. With the short fields, he proceeded to score two touchdowns. It can't be much simpler.
A lot of what we're crediting to Tim Tebow is actually the impact of things that are totally out of his control, a combination of field position, defensive turnovers, and a miracle on special teams. He deserves some of the plaudits that have come his way over the past two Sundays. Just not all of them."
Tebow should be commended for pulling his team out of a rut and winning the game, but let's not forget why they were in a shutout, 15-0 hole with 6 minutes to go to begin with. It's because Tebow played like absolute garbage for the first 54 minutes. In my mind, no amount of comeback leading can mask that kind of damning information. I mean, come one, you got shut out for the first 55 minutes by a defense that let the patriots rack up 600 yards of offense when they weren't even loose yet in week 1!
Now, to give some credit where credit is due. I don't think Tebow is a great NFL quarterback by any means. But the guy is a winner. Even when he loses, he's a winner. And where he excels is in a hurry up formation in the fourth quarter when trying to lead a comeback. Thanks to my friends over at ESPN Stats&Info, I can tell you that Tebow has now led two 13+ point comebacks in the fourth quarter. That's all in four starts with the Broncoes, yet it's the same amount of comebacks some little guy named John Elway pulled off in 231 starts. Half-full people will love the Elway comparison and take it at face value. Half-empty glasses will probably realize that Elway's teams were loaded with talent, and they never needed to come back from double digit deficits in the fourth quarter because they probably weren't losing, and they definitely weren't losing by that much. Where do I stand? It's probably somewhere in the middle, but I wanna give Tebow the benefit of the doubt here. You can credit a prevent defense too, but the hurry up no huddle is what Tebow can excel at. It's the scheme that compliments him best. Sue me for using this example, but if you put Pat White in a spread option offense, he's going to (and did) look like Zeus; if you put him in an NFL offense, he's going to (and, unfortunately, did) look like Ryan Leaf.
All in all, can we just calm down with handing him the keys to the city of Denver? He's not John Elway yet, but he's giving people some hope. And if you're team is 1-4, and your best player is you're rookie draft pick, isn't hope all you can really ask for? We can agree to disagree I suppose.
One thing we should all agree on? Tony Sporano should probably fire his defensive coordinator. Really, Tony? No linebacker is spying on Tim Tebow up the middle on a 2pt conversion to tie the game and send it to overtime?
That, my friends, is a fail.
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