Now that football is done and over with, we can all make the surprisingly difficult mental transition to basketball season. Once you’ve reminded yourself to look for new poll results one day later and adjusted yourself to the concept of actually meaningful games on a Wednesday night, we can all get on with the season!
If there’s one thing you can count on every year in basketball, it’s the same five or six programs being light years ahead of the other 300 schools in Division 1 basketball. I don’t mean to anoint the Duke’s and Kentucky’s of the world as unbeatable, but I do think it’s pretty hard to argue that their coaching, recruiting, and the intrinsic value of these bluebloods give them a consistently substantial leg up over other programs. So which nontraditional mid-major programs will bust through this year to challenge the familiar big boys? It may only be early December, but I’ve got five teams for you to watch as we chug right on through nonconference play:
5. Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt); The Blue Raiders might not face too much talent in the Sun Belt or their own out of conference schedule, but it’s hard to deny a team that leads all of college basketball in field goal percentage and averages 80 points a game. They’ve nabbed notable wins at Loyola Marymount and UCLA; those wins will improve their potential seeding if they can beat out Denver for the Sun Belt title. A late January showdown at Vanderbilt will show how dangerous this team can really be down the stretch. (Game to watch for- @Vanderbilt, January 28)-
4. Kent State (MAC); Kent State has a veteran team that knows how to close games and play unselfishly, as those of you who went to the Tuesday night game found out. This team has the schedule and the talent to play itself into the conversation for an at large berth in the NCAA tournament this year, and that’s probably a good thing. With Toledo and Ohio sniffing around with talented teams as well, the Mid-American could be looking at a rare multi-bid season. (Game to watch for- @Utah State, December 22)
3. Cleveland State (Horizon); Who’s Butler? The Vikes are out to prove that the Horizon league’s recent success has not been a flash in the plan. All Cleveland state has done this year is upset a top ten squad on the road in their opener and follow that up with quality wins against Rhode Island and fellow list member Kent state. Like the MAAC, the Horizon League wants to prove it too is worthy of being a multi-bid conference this year. Cleveland State is the obvious favorite, but Milwaukee could be a threat to the Vikings in the conference tournament. Don’t discount Butler either, since we all seemed to last year, and look where that got them. (Game to watch for- Robert Morris, December 8)
2. Creighton (MVC)- Picked by ESPN in the preseason to be the mid-major team to beat this year, the undefeated Bluejays are actually ranked as high as 17th in some polls now. They have wins over two teams from AQ leagues, with a third impressive win last year at San Diego State. Playing in the Valley has been no easy feat the last fear years with teams like Wichita State and Missouri State really playing well, but this may be the year Creighton rises to the top. I doubt they run the table in conference play, but a strong Valley record coupled with an impressive nonconference resume puts the Bluejays in position to make a deep tournament run in March. (Game to watch for- @Wichita St, December 31)
1. Harvard (Ivy)- Many of you might remember the Cornell team from two years ago that maybe went a little underappreciated. The Big Red got the last laugh though, as they joked their way into the Sweet Sixteen. The no-scholarship group’s impressive run might have gone even farther if had they not run into John Wall’s Kentucky team. Why is that important? Well, this year’s Harvard team is as good as that Ivy team, maybe even better. Poll voters finally relented and voted the Crimson into the Top 25 after holding a ranked Florida State team to 41 points. They beat a tough-minded Central Florida team, and have a big Litmus test this week at Connecticut. We’re going to find out how good this team really is. (Game to watch for- @UConn, December 8)
That’s all well and good for those teams, but now I have to address the elephant in the room. Since we’re talking mid-majors, where does JMU fit into all of this? It’s hard to tell for sure while Devon Moore is out, but suffice it to say that the 2011-2012 hard court Dukes are still a work in progress. When they remember to play good defense, they seem to look like a team that is completely capable of making a run at the CAA title. When they get hot, they can absolutely shoot lights out from the perimeter. On the other hand, sloppy play and impatience can really undermine this team, as the Dukes went 6 of 23 from behind the arc and turned the ball over 19 times in a twenty point home loss to Kent State Tuesday night. It doesn’t matter. I still believe in this team’s staying power. If the Dukes can find better penetration in the lane and clean up the transition game (JMU had only 10 points off 23 Kent State turnovers), the Dukes should be a legitimate conference threat for the title this year.
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