In case you haven't heard me talking about it nonstop on facebook/twitter/real life for the last God knows how many days, I'm in Morgantown for college game day this week. Emotions are running high after a loss that looked a loss that looked a lot more lopsided than the game really was. Here are my thoughts: the good, the bad, and the ugly of both teams.
West Virginia:
Good: This passing offense of Holgorsen's is so legit, and it was an absolute treat to see it in person (meant literally and metaphorcally- scalper asking prices were around $300 as I was tailgatng). LSU's defense was highly touted and with good reason, but that didn't stop WVU from passing to the tune of FIVE HUNDRED YARDS? Absolutely absurd. It makes them a force to be reckoned with in just about any game.
Bad: The Mountaineers did display a surprisingly stout defense against a much larger front, but they showed lapses of fundamental tackling skills in critical situatioins. Giving up 9 yard rushes because of missed tackles in the backfield on your own 40, dropping balls that are easy catches... you cant do that and win football games, and WVU had one or two too many plays like this.
Ugly: Once again, West Virginia shows the absolute worst aspect of the team, year in and year out, is special teams kickoff coverage. West Virginia had cut the lead to 6 measely points and was threatening an absolutely epic comeback with all the momentum in the world focused on Morgantown's home team. Lack of quality kickoff coverage allowed a 99 yard kickoff touchdown, and the resulting loss of momentum pretty much doomed the rest of the game.
LSU:
Good: Maybe Lee is a little underrated. Regardless, LSU's offense was firing pretty well tonight. If the defense lives up to its hype and the offense plays like this, I can't see anyone beating them.
Bad: LSU's offense teamed really, really one dimensional. It's an interesting dichotomy, listing offensive prowess and offensive inadequecies as both a strength and a weakness. But as game film piles up against LSU, the offense is going to start to look more and more one-dimensional and focused on a power running game. I can't count how many times I saw a power toss to the right of the offensive line. Lee was certainly capable of doing enough to move the chains and advance the ball down the field, but I think the lack of creative play calling on LSU's offense has the potential to hurt them.
Ugly: It's gotta be said. LSU made the New York Giants look good in this game by (seemingly) faking injuries an inordinant amount of times. LSU "injuries" numbered in the double digits, and it got to the point that fans- myself included- started booing every time an injured player went down. The defense looked winded a lot, and injuries started occurring magically every time the WVU offense started clicking, or the tempo was getting pushed faster. At one point, I saw a referee told Les Miles that the next LSU injury would cost the Tigers a time out. Injuries stopped happening. I won't out and out call them dirty cheaters, and I'm not making excuses for WVU and the unacceptable amount of turnovers they were forced into. That being said, use your brain and draw your own conclusions.
In addition to all that, I think WVU fans deserve some serious credit. Milan Puskar stadium is not the biggest stadium in college football, but the dedication of this fan base puts it in strong contention for one of the loudest. For the most part, though, mountaineer fans kept it classy, and I think they should be acknowledged for the clean, hard-nosed competitiveness that was provided. I actually saw an LSU guy high fiving/ holding hands with a WVU guy while they were peeing into an open style latrine, which was as inspiring as it was slightly gay. Regardless, great atmosphere. My ears hurt, my heart hurts more, but what an incredible night.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Friday, September 23, 2011
The Pregame For GameDay
I'm going to College Gameday this weekend. I am SO EXCITED. Let's look at some matchups.
Interesting Matchups
Vanderbilt at South Carolina: Vandy's defense has been surprisingly good of late, creating a lot of points off of turnovers. Compare that to a very high octane offense under Steve Spurrier's South Carolina team and we've got ourselves a ball game. I think the Commies might have their hands full here, but it's at least an interesting matchup to watch.
Arkansas at Alabama- STOP SAYING THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN GAMEDAY. Do you really think Alabama won't ever have game this year? Because you're out of your mind if you do. ESPN has to spread the love outside of the SEC a little bit, and week 4 in Morgantown is the only place they're going to be able to make a legitimate case for a Big East gameday.
Anyway, the matchup is pretty simple. Alabama has an absolutely dominant defense and a potent rush attack. Arkansas probably has the best receivers in the country along with a very good defensive front. We'll see which SEC team-that-starts-with-an-A wins. (probably the one with the "LABAMA" after the A)
LSU at West Virginia- If it's good enough for CGD, it's good enough for me. I've heard lots of descriptions of this game, everything from the more relevant mountaineer offense vs tiger defense all the way down to battle of the two best tailgating schools. I've also heard battle of the two most hillbillly states. To those people, on behalf of both states: Screw you.
Recommended Viewing Schedule:
12- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, ABC
3:30- Trio of great games here: personally, I'd watch Ok.St @ Texas A&M on ESPN2. Do what you gotta do.
7-8 First hour of Florida @ Kentucky, ESPN
8- Cmon, you gotta watch LSU @ WVU.
11:30- second half of USC @ Arizona State. Very underrated game here, if you're still in front of a TV. I won't be!
Predictions: I bet you'll never guess who I pick in the LSU-WVU game...
Mizzou @ Oklahoma
LSU @ West Virginia
Arkansas @ Alabama
Tulsa @ Boise St
South Dakota @ Wisconsin
Ok St @ Texas A&M
Nebraska @ Wyoming
Oregon @ Arizona
Florida St @ Clemson
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina
Virginia Tech @ Marshall
Florida @ Kentucky
Rice @ Baylor
UTEP @ USF
Portland St @ TCU
San Diego St @ Michigan
USC @ Arizona St
Western Michigan @ Illinois
UNC @ Georgia Tech
Interesting Matchups
Vanderbilt at South Carolina: Vandy's defense has been surprisingly good of late, creating a lot of points off of turnovers. Compare that to a very high octane offense under Steve Spurrier's South Carolina team and we've got ourselves a ball game. I think the Commies might have their hands full here, but it's at least an interesting matchup to watch.
Arkansas at Alabama- STOP SAYING THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN GAMEDAY. Do you really think Alabama won't ever have game this year? Because you're out of your mind if you do. ESPN has to spread the love outside of the SEC a little bit, and week 4 in Morgantown is the only place they're going to be able to make a legitimate case for a Big East gameday.
Anyway, the matchup is pretty simple. Alabama has an absolutely dominant defense and a potent rush attack. Arkansas probably has the best receivers in the country along with a very good defensive front. We'll see which SEC team-that-starts-with-an-A wins. (probably the one with the "LABAMA" after the A)
LSU at West Virginia- If it's good enough for CGD, it's good enough for me. I've heard lots of descriptions of this game, everything from the more relevant mountaineer offense vs tiger defense all the way down to battle of the two best tailgating schools. I've also heard battle of the two most hillbillly states. To those people, on behalf of both states: Screw you.
Recommended Viewing Schedule:
12- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, ABC
3:30- Trio of great games here: personally, I'd watch Ok.St @ Texas A&M on ESPN2. Do what you gotta do.
7-8 First hour of Florida @ Kentucky, ESPN
8- Cmon, you gotta watch LSU @ WVU.
11:30- second half of USC @ Arizona State. Very underrated game here, if you're still in front of a TV. I won't be!
Predictions: I bet you'll never guess who I pick in the LSU-WVU game...
Mizzou @ Oklahoma
LSU @ West Virginia
Arkansas @ Alabama
Tulsa @ Boise St
South Dakota @ Wisconsin
Ok St @ Texas A&M
Nebraska @ Wyoming
Oregon @ Arizona
Florida St @ Clemson
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina
Virginia Tech @ Marshall
Florida @ Kentucky
Rice @ Baylor
UTEP @ USF
Portland St @ TCU
San Diego St @ Michigan
USC @ Arizona St
Western Michigan @ Illinois
UNC @ Georgia Tech
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Rant Time: Boise Can't Beat the Best Just Yet
I think many of us had that friend in high school that cruised through all the easy classes. He might have been smart, but he was a major underachiever. While you were working hard to keep up with AP Lit homework, he was enjoying the fruits of advanced gym and reminding you that his GPA was just a little bit higher than yours.
The BCS system finds itself in a similar predicament this year. I’m talking, of course, about Boise State University. Boise’s athletic director does his best to schedule one fringe national title contender every year so that his team can lay the best possible groundwork for an argument that goes something like this: “did you see how badly we beat up on our in-conference competition? Did you see us win that one game against that team that is kind of good? Look, we’re undefeated! You can’t possibly deny us a bid in the national title game now!”
Well… why not?
For the second straight year, Boise State has traveled to the east coast to play a preseason top 20 team that many fancied a quiet contender for the national title. Boise eked out a win last year over Virginia Tech in their first game of the season. Evidently they enjoyed the weather on this side of the country, because they made a return trip just last weekend to beat Georgia in their 2011 season opener. The most notable statistic about both games isn’t something you’ll find in a box score, though- each BSU victim followed up their 0-1 start with another heartbreaking loss. Georgia fell to 0-2 on Saturday when they played South Carolina after turning the ball three times and allowing Marcus Lattimore to rush for over 150 yards. In 2010, our very own JMU Dukes played salt to Boise State’s wounds by capitalizing on key moments and taking advantage of Virginia Tech’s short week in a 21-16 upset of historic proportions. Both JMU and South Carolina have now played key roles in shaping Boise State’s ultimate destination. When you damage their already tenuous strength of schedule, you do real harm to the Bronco’s chances of appearing in the national title game. And you know what? Good.
In the Western Athletic Conference, Boise State played eight conference games a year. Since the 2009 season, they have won their conference games by an average of 35 points. No small amount of credit should go to the potency of the offense that hyperefficient quarterback Kellen Moore runs, but let’s be real. Boise State has been blowing their opponents out because they aren’t good teams. The casual football fan can’t name more than one or two teams from the WAC- that’s probably not a good sign for the strength of that particular conference. So while Boise State knocks around creampuffs and programs that could be mistaken for high school teams, SEC and other AQ teams are beating the crap out of each other and eliminating each other from title contention.
Look, I’m not saying Boise State should be barred from ever competing for the national championship. They actually play a significantly more difficult schedule this year as they have moved to the Mountain West and must host the likes of TCU and other more accomplished teams. But when you’re a team from a non-automatic qualifying league and you want to play for the championship against one of the big boys, I think you should have to prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that you belong at the table. As for me? I’m not buying in just yet.
The BCS system finds itself in a similar predicament this year. I’m talking, of course, about Boise State University. Boise’s athletic director does his best to schedule one fringe national title contender every year so that his team can lay the best possible groundwork for an argument that goes something like this: “did you see how badly we beat up on our in-conference competition? Did you see us win that one game against that team that is kind of good? Look, we’re undefeated! You can’t possibly deny us a bid in the national title game now!”
Well… why not?
For the second straight year, Boise State has traveled to the east coast to play a preseason top 20 team that many fancied a quiet contender for the national title. Boise eked out a win last year over Virginia Tech in their first game of the season. Evidently they enjoyed the weather on this side of the country, because they made a return trip just last weekend to beat Georgia in their 2011 season opener. The most notable statistic about both games isn’t something you’ll find in a box score, though- each BSU victim followed up their 0-1 start with another heartbreaking loss. Georgia fell to 0-2 on Saturday when they played South Carolina after turning the ball three times and allowing Marcus Lattimore to rush for over 150 yards. In 2010, our very own JMU Dukes played salt to Boise State’s wounds by capitalizing on key moments and taking advantage of Virginia Tech’s short week in a 21-16 upset of historic proportions. Both JMU and South Carolina have now played key roles in shaping Boise State’s ultimate destination. When you damage their already tenuous strength of schedule, you do real harm to the Bronco’s chances of appearing in the national title game. And you know what? Good.
In the Western Athletic Conference, Boise State played eight conference games a year. Since the 2009 season, they have won their conference games by an average of 35 points. No small amount of credit should go to the potency of the offense that hyperefficient quarterback Kellen Moore runs, but let’s be real. Boise State has been blowing their opponents out because they aren’t good teams. The casual football fan can’t name more than one or two teams from the WAC- that’s probably not a good sign for the strength of that particular conference. So while Boise State knocks around creampuffs and programs that could be mistaken for high school teams, SEC and other AQ teams are beating the crap out of each other and eliminating each other from title contention.
Look, I’m not saying Boise State should be barred from ever competing for the national championship. They actually play a significantly more difficult schedule this year as they have moved to the Mountain West and must host the likes of TCU and other more accomplished teams. But when you’re a team from a non-automatic qualifying league and you want to play for the championship against one of the big boys, I think you should have to prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that you belong at the table. As for me? I’m not buying in just yet.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
10 Things: Football Predictions
Today is a Tuesday, which means we're talking a little bit of NFL. With that in mind, here are 10 predictions I have for the upcoming NFL and college football seasons:
1. The AFC will be incredibly predictable and boring. Out of the AFC's six postseason bids, expect four of them to be repeats. More on this down the road.
2. The Oklahoma-FSU game will not directly impact the national championship. Everyone is billing this as THE game of the year. About 75% of national championship predictions this year are SEC Winner vs the winner of the Sooners and the Seminoles. My questions is... why? Why are we giving FSU and Oklahoma free passes for 11 weeks of the season, plus an ACC title game? I think the Sems drop their regular season finale at Florida (watch FSU @ Clemson, too). I think Oklahoma drops two conference games- Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. Ultimately, I don't think either one has a chance to make the national championship game, though FSU does make a BCS bowl game.
3. The Detroit Lions will finish with a better record than the Indianapolis Colts. This is kind of like two predictions rolled into one. First off, the colts: I'm sorry, Peyton Manning is going to miss how many weeks with a neck injury? Listen, Manning might be the best player in the NFL. Whether he is or isn't is irrelevant. What is certain, at least for me, is that Peyton Manning is the most valuable commodity to his team in the NFL. Find me a player that means more to their team than Peyton. I don't think you can. With Peyton Manning, the Colts are easily a 10, probably a 12 win team. Without him, even for 4 or 5 games? I think the Colts don't even get to .500; Houston will win the Week 1 matchup and the division. Meanwhile, I love the d-line addition of Fairley. The defense will be impressive up front. The running committee will be at least good enough to get defenses to respect it, and that's all Stafford and Megatron need. I think Detroit finishes right around .500. They don't make the playoffs, of course, with the Packers taking the only bid from the NFC North, but the franchise continues to move up.
4. The SEC's national title run will end this year. Okay, so I guess Arkansas is pretty balanced. But overall, I think The SEC offenses are just too weak to compete this year. Combine that with the incredible depth of the SEC West (whose winner will inevitably beat South Carolina in the SEC title game), and you're looking at a league who will most likely not field an undefeated team. The SEC might not even place a team in the national championship for the first time since 2006/2007.
5. The Eagles lose once again in wildcard weekend. When I saw the Philadelphia offseason additions, I'll admit... I was impressed. I hopped on the Superbowl or Bust media bandwagon, all too eager to crown the Eagles champs before the season even began. But the more I researched, the more I saw the writing on the wall. Vick really is not as amazing as everyone says. The line has major, major holes. People are gonna run against the eagles all day, and check out teams that will be frequently playing against them in the regular season AND the playoffs: the cowboys, redskins, and giants, three teams that feature strong running attacks.
6. Boise State will make the National Championship game. I'm not saying I like it. Frankly, I hate that you can play one relatively difficult game and 10 creampuffs and end up in the title conversation. But Kellen Moore and the broncos have hung around just long enough to convince just about everybody that they are contenders regardless of what conference they play in. They're d-line is admittedly very good, and other conferences are deep enough that most teams will not escape the regular season undefeated. Seriously, I hope I'm wrong. But there is a fairly significant chance that Boise runs the table when no one else does and plays for the title.
7. The two Virginia FBS football programs will end up closer in record than most people think. Virginia Tech is a popular outside pick to get to the national championship because the schedule is "managable." This is, of course, another way of saying that VT doesn't play ANYONE. Even their ACC schedule is a cakewalk. But don't expect Tech to run the table this year- Marshall is a bit of a trap game, and I just have this gut feeling that someone in the ACC is going to upset a team with surprisingly few adept skill players. No one runs the table in what is a rebuilding year on paper. Meanwhile, I think Virginia is a bit of a sleeper ACC team and will finish much better than people think. Expect the teams to only be separated by 2 or 3 wins at the end of the year.
8. The second place NFC East team will compete for the last wildcard bid with the third place NFC South team. Atlanta and New Orleans both seem like locks for the playoffs. As overrated as I find the Eagles to be, I still think they win their division. I think the Cowboys and Bucs find themselves in a close battle down the stretch for that last playoff spot. And if you doubt that the NFC South can't put forward three playoff teams, consider this: the fourth NFC south team is the Carolina Panthers.
9. The Big East will have three consistently ranked teams. West Virginia will most likely remain ranked all year because of Dana Holgorsen hype and lots of offensive talent. South Florida will most likely jump into the fringe rankings today after their big upset of Notre Dame on the road. I also think Cincinatti or Pitt will jump into the ranking around the end of September. All four of those teams will at least be in the mix to be ranked for a large majority of the season.
10. The New Orleans Saints will win their second superbowl in three years. Pretty self explanatory. Great offseason. Mark Ingram is a monster. Fantastic coach. Drew Brees. Enough said.
1. The AFC will be incredibly predictable and boring. Out of the AFC's six postseason bids, expect four of them to be repeats. More on this down the road.
2. The Oklahoma-FSU game will not directly impact the national championship. Everyone is billing this as THE game of the year. About 75% of national championship predictions this year are SEC Winner vs the winner of the Sooners and the Seminoles. My questions is... why? Why are we giving FSU and Oklahoma free passes for 11 weeks of the season, plus an ACC title game? I think the Sems drop their regular season finale at Florida (watch FSU @ Clemson, too). I think Oklahoma drops two conference games- Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. Ultimately, I don't think either one has a chance to make the national championship game, though FSU does make a BCS bowl game.
3. The Detroit Lions will finish with a better record than the Indianapolis Colts. This is kind of like two predictions rolled into one. First off, the colts: I'm sorry, Peyton Manning is going to miss how many weeks with a neck injury? Listen, Manning might be the best player in the NFL. Whether he is or isn't is irrelevant. What is certain, at least for me, is that Peyton Manning is the most valuable commodity to his team in the NFL. Find me a player that means more to their team than Peyton. I don't think you can. With Peyton Manning, the Colts are easily a 10, probably a 12 win team. Without him, even for 4 or 5 games? I think the Colts don't even get to .500; Houston will win the Week 1 matchup and the division. Meanwhile, I love the d-line addition of Fairley. The defense will be impressive up front. The running committee will be at least good enough to get defenses to respect it, and that's all Stafford and Megatron need. I think Detroit finishes right around .500. They don't make the playoffs, of course, with the Packers taking the only bid from the NFC North, but the franchise continues to move up.
4. The SEC's national title run will end this year. Okay, so I guess Arkansas is pretty balanced. But overall, I think The SEC offenses are just too weak to compete this year. Combine that with the incredible depth of the SEC West (whose winner will inevitably beat South Carolina in the SEC title game), and you're looking at a league who will most likely not field an undefeated team. The SEC might not even place a team in the national championship for the first time since 2006/2007.
5. The Eagles lose once again in wildcard weekend. When I saw the Philadelphia offseason additions, I'll admit... I was impressed. I hopped on the Superbowl or Bust media bandwagon, all too eager to crown the Eagles champs before the season even began. But the more I researched, the more I saw the writing on the wall. Vick really is not as amazing as everyone says. The line has major, major holes. People are gonna run against the eagles all day, and check out teams that will be frequently playing against them in the regular season AND the playoffs: the cowboys, redskins, and giants, three teams that feature strong running attacks.
6. Boise State will make the National Championship game. I'm not saying I like it. Frankly, I hate that you can play one relatively difficult game and 10 creampuffs and end up in the title conversation. But Kellen Moore and the broncos have hung around just long enough to convince just about everybody that they are contenders regardless of what conference they play in. They're d-line is admittedly very good, and other conferences are deep enough that most teams will not escape the regular season undefeated. Seriously, I hope I'm wrong. But there is a fairly significant chance that Boise runs the table when no one else does and plays for the title.
7. The two Virginia FBS football programs will end up closer in record than most people think. Virginia Tech is a popular outside pick to get to the national championship because the schedule is "managable." This is, of course, another way of saying that VT doesn't play ANYONE. Even their ACC schedule is a cakewalk. But don't expect Tech to run the table this year- Marshall is a bit of a trap game, and I just have this gut feeling that someone in the ACC is going to upset a team with surprisingly few adept skill players. No one runs the table in what is a rebuilding year on paper. Meanwhile, I think Virginia is a bit of a sleeper ACC team and will finish much better than people think. Expect the teams to only be separated by 2 or 3 wins at the end of the year.
8. The second place NFC East team will compete for the last wildcard bid with the third place NFC South team. Atlanta and New Orleans both seem like locks for the playoffs. As overrated as I find the Eagles to be, I still think they win their division. I think the Cowboys and Bucs find themselves in a close battle down the stretch for that last playoff spot. And if you doubt that the NFC South can't put forward three playoff teams, consider this: the fourth NFC south team is the Carolina Panthers.
9. The Big East will have three consistently ranked teams. West Virginia will most likely remain ranked all year because of Dana Holgorsen hype and lots of offensive talent. South Florida will most likely jump into the fringe rankings today after their big upset of Notre Dame on the road. I also think Cincinatti or Pitt will jump into the ranking around the end of September. All four of those teams will at least be in the mix to be ranked for a large majority of the season.
10. The New Orleans Saints will win their second superbowl in three years. Pretty self explanatory. Great offseason. Mark Ingram is a monster. Fantastic coach. Drew Brees. Enough said.
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Hangover: Big East Up, ACC Down at End of Week 1
He scoffed at South Florida.
My friend and former YMCA coworker, who we will call Peter (name changed to protect the hopelessly optimistic), was as big a Notre Dame fan as you can find amongst the non-Catholic, non-Irish-alumni on the east coast. "This is the year they're back," Peter said. "This is the year Notre Dame is back." He wasn't alone in his prognostication; media pundits and poll voters across the country put their faith in Brian Kelly's Irish Offense 2.0. Who was South Florida, perennial third place finisher of the Big East because of their inability to play well down the stretch, to come into South Bend and overthrow one of the most storied college football programs of all time in the year of their big comeback?
"Just watch and see, Peter. Notre Dame is back? Not quite yet they aren't, not until I say they are. And I'll tell you one thing, Peter- South Florida will shock Notre Dame in the opener. Your Irish will start 0-1." I don't think he liked that very much, as he kind of laughed at me. Peter knows that I am a sports guy- he even reads my blog avidly and will brag about me to just about anyone- but he just couldn't believe that South Florida would beat his revamped Notre Dame team. The bulls? A major AQ conference resident for not even ten years. They've never won a Big East title, never been to a BCS bowl game. Sure, they've made headlines a couple times for matching up well and upsetting the Pat White-led West Virginia squads of the mid 2000's, but they are a relatively unheralded team.
In short, they were scoffed at. They were scoffed at by the media who were only too desperate for the story that could have been a resurgent Notre Dame football team. They were scoffed at by my very own readers when I listed South Florida as my twentieth best preseason team. They were scoffed at by the Peters of the world.
Scoffing be damned.
South Florida was a notable storyline that was part of a larger perfect opening weekend for the Big East, a conference often billed as the weakest of the AQ conferences. Assuming WVU wins this never-ending, delayed-for-over-four-hours-now-because-of-weather game against Marshall (they are currently up 21 points with only 30 seconds or so elapsed in the fourth quarter), the Big East conference will have gone 8-0 this weekend. Sure, some of those games were against FCS squads, but those types of matchups have become more and more regular in this college football landscape. Power conference teams aren't guarenteed to pick up wins against FCS teams, either- ask the Pac-12 and Oregon State. WVU will most likely be getting a win against C-USA. USF picked up the aforementioned win against independent but ranked foe Notre Dame. Syracuse staged a dramatic, fourth quarter comeback win over Wake Forest. Which leads me to...
The ACC. Most twelve-teamed conferences average around 1 loss on opening weekend. The statistic is slightly skewed because of the Monday night conference game between Miami and Maryland, but still: only 8 of 12 Atlantic Coast teams will manage wins in week 1. As mentioned above, Wake Forest lost to Syracuse. FCS Richmond upset Duke. Boston College could never really get it going against Northwestern. All in all, the ACC goes 1-2 against nonconference FBS foes this weekend, with the lone victory coming against lowly Troy.
I'll continue to follow out of conference matchups closely through the month of September. If you are still craving more college football after four nonstop days of it, check out Al Golden and Randy Edsall's head coaching debuts tomorrow night when Miami visits Maryland. For the record, I like Maryland to win. And speaking of records...
This weekend: 22/23
This season: 22/23
My friend and former YMCA coworker, who we will call Peter (name changed to protect the hopelessly optimistic), was as big a Notre Dame fan as you can find amongst the non-Catholic, non-Irish-alumni on the east coast. "This is the year they're back," Peter said. "This is the year Notre Dame is back." He wasn't alone in his prognostication; media pundits and poll voters across the country put their faith in Brian Kelly's Irish Offense 2.0. Who was South Florida, perennial third place finisher of the Big East because of their inability to play well down the stretch, to come into South Bend and overthrow one of the most storied college football programs of all time in the year of their big comeback?
"Just watch and see, Peter. Notre Dame is back? Not quite yet they aren't, not until I say they are. And I'll tell you one thing, Peter- South Florida will shock Notre Dame in the opener. Your Irish will start 0-1." I don't think he liked that very much, as he kind of laughed at me. Peter knows that I am a sports guy- he even reads my blog avidly and will brag about me to just about anyone- but he just couldn't believe that South Florida would beat his revamped Notre Dame team. The bulls? A major AQ conference resident for not even ten years. They've never won a Big East title, never been to a BCS bowl game. Sure, they've made headlines a couple times for matching up well and upsetting the Pat White-led West Virginia squads of the mid 2000's, but they are a relatively unheralded team.
In short, they were scoffed at. They were scoffed at by the media who were only too desperate for the story that could have been a resurgent Notre Dame football team. They were scoffed at by my very own readers when I listed South Florida as my twentieth best preseason team. They were scoffed at by the Peters of the world.
Scoffing be damned.
South Florida was a notable storyline that was part of a larger perfect opening weekend for the Big East, a conference often billed as the weakest of the AQ conferences. Assuming WVU wins this never-ending, delayed-for-over-four-hours-now-because-of-weather game against Marshall (they are currently up 21 points with only 30 seconds or so elapsed in the fourth quarter), the Big East conference will have gone 8-0 this weekend. Sure, some of those games were against FCS squads, but those types of matchups have become more and more regular in this college football landscape. Power conference teams aren't guarenteed to pick up wins against FCS teams, either- ask the Pac-12 and Oregon State. WVU will most likely be getting a win against C-USA. USF picked up the aforementioned win against independent but ranked foe Notre Dame. Syracuse staged a dramatic, fourth quarter comeback win over Wake Forest. Which leads me to...
The ACC. Most twelve-teamed conferences average around 1 loss on opening weekend. The statistic is slightly skewed because of the Monday night conference game between Miami and Maryland, but still: only 8 of 12 Atlantic Coast teams will manage wins in week 1. As mentioned above, Wake Forest lost to Syracuse. FCS Richmond upset Duke. Boston College could never really get it going against Northwestern. All in all, the ACC goes 1-2 against nonconference FBS foes this weekend, with the lone victory coming against lowly Troy.
I'll continue to follow out of conference matchups closely through the month of September. If you are still craving more college football after four nonstop days of it, check out Al Golden and Randy Edsall's head coaching debuts tomorrow night when Miami visits Maryland. For the record, I like Maryland to win. And speaking of records...
This weekend: 22/23
This season: 22/23
Friday, September 2, 2011
It Feels Good to Pregame Again
A warm welcome back to the Friday Evening Pregame, an entry intended as a primer for the upcoming weekend of college sports. Today, I’ll briefly take you through some interesting weekend matchups, a recommended viewing schedule for football this weekend, and my own predictions for the top 25 teams in action. Grab your glass, the pregame starts now!
Interesting Matchups
South Florida at Notre Dame: A notable game for more than one reason. Second year USF coach Skip Holtz returns to South Bend to lead a Bulls team that, much like UConn last year, is a trendy dark horse candidate to win the Big East. They’ll face Brian Kelly, also a second year coach, as he continues his efforts to revive an Irish program that has struggled of late. As interesting as the coaching storylines are, I’m much more interested in what’s happening on the field. USF always fields a BDB type of quick defense that is sneaky good. They could prove an interesting matchup for newly reinstated quarterback Dayne Crist, who was not nearly as effective last year against quick defensive lines. Conversely, it should be interesting to see how Notre Dame’s defense, which has been rejuvenated with several SEC-type defensive prospects, will hold up against the dual threat capabilities of Bulls qb BJ Daniels.
Minnesota at USC- Minnesota sports has generally relegated to the corner of the sports world that generally involves using the words “golden gopher” as a punch line. Even still, Minnesota is going to run a style of offense that will grind USC down similar to how UVA did the last time those two teams played. Sure, UVA still lost- but it was a close game because of the style of play. Expect a close game and a great matchup.
Boise State at Georgia- SEC talent vs… well, Kellen Moore. Aside from Boise’s impressive running game, Bronco quarterback and 2010 Heisman finalist Kellen Moore will need to elevate a very mediocre group of receivers if they want to survive to be nationally relevant after week 1 of the college football season. The real great matchup will be Georgia’s front 7 against Boise’s O-line.
Recommended Viewing Schedule:
12:00- Northwestern at Boston College, ESPNU
3:30- USF at Notre Dame, NBC. Alternatively, check out Minnesota at USC (ABC) until 4:45 when BYU @ Ole Miss (ESPN3) starts. Then you could go either way.
7-8: The first quarter or so of ECU vs South Carolina, ESPN3.
8:00: LSU vs Oregon, ABC. If you don’t watch this game, shame on you.
Predictions: My bold predictions according to the USA Today’s top 25, which I compose early in the week before any games occur:
Thursday
UNLV @ Wisconsin
Miss St @ Memphis
Friday
TCU @ Baylor
Youngstown St @ Michigan St
Saturday
Utah St @ Auburn
Kent St @ Alabama
App St @ Virginia Tech
Akron @ Ohio St
Miami (OH) @ Mizzou
Tulsa @ Oklahoma
Oregon @ LSU
Boise St @ Georgia
LA-Monroe @ FSU
San Jose St @ Stanford
LA-Lafeyette @ Ok St
Chattanooga @ Nebraska
ECU @ S. Carolina
Missouri St @ Arkansas
South Florida @ Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic @ Florida
Minnesota @ USC
Sunday
SMU @ Texas A&M
Marshall @ WVU
Interesting Matchups
South Florida at Notre Dame: A notable game for more than one reason. Second year USF coach Skip Holtz returns to South Bend to lead a Bulls team that, much like UConn last year, is a trendy dark horse candidate to win the Big East. They’ll face Brian Kelly, also a second year coach, as he continues his efforts to revive an Irish program that has struggled of late. As interesting as the coaching storylines are, I’m much more interested in what’s happening on the field. USF always fields a BDB type of quick defense that is sneaky good. They could prove an interesting matchup for newly reinstated quarterback Dayne Crist, who was not nearly as effective last year against quick defensive lines. Conversely, it should be interesting to see how Notre Dame’s defense, which has been rejuvenated with several SEC-type defensive prospects, will hold up against the dual threat capabilities of Bulls qb BJ Daniels.
Minnesota at USC- Minnesota sports has generally relegated to the corner of the sports world that generally involves using the words “golden gopher” as a punch line. Even still, Minnesota is going to run a style of offense that will grind USC down similar to how UVA did the last time those two teams played. Sure, UVA still lost- but it was a close game because of the style of play. Expect a close game and a great matchup.
Boise State at Georgia- SEC talent vs… well, Kellen Moore. Aside from Boise’s impressive running game, Bronco quarterback and 2010 Heisman finalist Kellen Moore will need to elevate a very mediocre group of receivers if they want to survive to be nationally relevant after week 1 of the college football season. The real great matchup will be Georgia’s front 7 against Boise’s O-line.
Recommended Viewing Schedule:
12:00- Northwestern at Boston College, ESPNU
3:30- USF at Notre Dame, NBC. Alternatively, check out Minnesota at USC (ABC) until 4:45 when BYU @ Ole Miss (ESPN3) starts. Then you could go either way.
7-8: The first quarter or so of ECU vs South Carolina, ESPN3.
8:00: LSU vs Oregon, ABC. If you don’t watch this game, shame on you.
Predictions: My bold predictions according to the USA Today’s top 25, which I compose early in the week before any games occur:
Thursday
UNLV @ Wisconsin
Miss St @ Memphis
Friday
TCU @ Baylor
Youngstown St @ Michigan St
Saturday
Utah St @ Auburn
Kent St @ Alabama
App St @ Virginia Tech
Akron @ Ohio St
Miami (OH) @ Mizzou
Tulsa @ Oklahoma
Oregon @ LSU
Boise St @ Georgia
LA-Monroe @ FSU
San Jose St @ Stanford
LA-Lafeyette @ Ok St
Chattanooga @ Nebraska
ECU @ S. Carolina
Missouri St @ Arkansas
South Florida @ Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic @ Florida
Minnesota @ USC
Sunday
SMU @ Texas A&M
Marshall @ WVU
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Preseason Poll: The Top 5
After a hectic week of finalizing my work at the YMCA and moving into my apartment up at school, I'm finally ready to reveal my preseason top five teams. They are:
5. South Carolina
Why they will contend: I've said it before and I'll say it again- the SEC will be a run first league this year. Lucky for gamecock fans and the good people of South Carolina, Steve Spurrier has assembled a dynamic run attack led by all-star runningback Marcus Lattimore. He shredded defenses a freshman last year and will be back for a 2011-2012 campaign to do the exact same thing all over again. Lattimore will probably see a good 55% of the total touches this year- just enough to make him the primary weapon without working him too hard and probably injuring him. Another large chunk of the action will be seen by Alshawn Jeffrey, a fantastic weapon that will keep the chains moving when Lattimore needs to hit up the Gatorade cooler. Oh yeah, don't forget about the solid offensive line supporting them and an awesome front 7 on the defensive end.
Where their problems lie: Stephen Garcia, Stephen Garcia, and Stephen Garcia. It's pretty rare that you're quarterback is actually the weak spot of your offense in this day and age, but Garcia is the clear object of many pointing fingers in the college football landscape right now. His ball skills are adequate enough to keep the offense running, but his constant mental focus issues could honestly be this programs undoing. He's been suspended multiple times for off the field issues- he's not out there robbing banks or even selling rings for tattoos, people, he just does stupid stuff- and his absence could completely derail South Carolina's shot at the SEC title and beyond. Lattimore might be a monster, but if you have a quarterback starting his very first game in the middle of SEC play, things don't look great for your team.
What you can expect: The gamecocks really only have one difficult game in the first half of their schedule: playing in Athens in week 2. I think a tough running attack overpowers an already fatigued and slightly overrated Georgia team as South Carolina cruises to a 6-0 start. Three consecutive road games at Miss St, Tennessee, and Arkansas leave South Carolina at 7-2, but a 3-0 finish leaves Spurrier's squad playing in the SEC title game. South Carolina again gets blown out by superior SEC West competition as Garcia sits for personal reasons, but a 10 win season leaves South Carolina's team in the running for the SEC's second BCS bowl bid and fans happy.
4. Texas A&M
Why they will contend: There's something to said for a team that finishes hot. There's also something to be said for a team that returns most of their players. Put them together, and there's a lot that can be said for Texas A&M. A physical and experienced team, the Aggies have a hugely talented running game that should be strong enough to counter most of the problems usually associated with breaking in new quarterbacks. The defense is of a high caliber. Maybe the most important thing to note is the managebility of the schedule- while A&M does have play at Oklahoma, the more or less unanimous conference favorite, their only other road games are Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech. The Aggies will get to host preseason #9 Oklahoma State and preseason #21 Missouri along with the remaining three Big 12 teams.
Where their problems lie: There will inevitably be growing pains with this new freshman in a league like the Big 12- the real question is how big those pains will be and how long they will last. The schedule doesn't leave much room for error- top ten teams are showing up in College Station by week 4.
What you can expect: Obviously I am quite a bit higher on A&M than most other people, but I think people are underselling Texas A&M because of the overstatement of preseason #1 Oklahoma. Oklahoma is not invincible, and I think Texas A&M will beat them. The following is a highly specific and thus probably very wrong prediction, but here's what I think happens: because Oklahoma is #1 right now, they are an inevitable favorite to make a run at a BCS championship bid. However, now that the Big 12 is no longer divided into two divisions, the margin for error in the league in much smaller. Rather than having the opportunity to drop a game but still win the league via a championship game win, teams must now win the conference outright to secure their BCS bid. In other words, egular season games are worth significantly more over in Tornado Alley. Texas A&M will certainly drop a conference game- whether it's Mizzou or OSU, it doesn't really matter. I also think they lose their neutral site game to Arkansas, leaving them at 10-2. Oklahoma goes 11-1 with their only loss to A&M. The Aggies win the Big 12 despite their inferior record, and the Sooners are denied any sort of BCS bid completely because of the depth of the SEC/Pac12. Oklahoma plays in the Cotton Bowl in what is easily the best non-BCS bowl game of the year. Texas A&M goes to the BCS. Oklahoma Sooner fans are once again disappointed, regardless of the outcome of the bowl game.
Wow, now I feel like Fred Weasley calling for Ireland to win while Viktor Krum catches thes snitch. If that all comes true, I deserve to be paid for this.
3. Wisconsin
Why they will contend: Another team I'm really high on, there is a LOT to like about the Badgers this year. Where to even begin? Wisconsin has a great tradition at the runningback spot, and this year is no different. RB White returns to tear up backfields, linemen, and secondaries as he did last year when he wasn't even on top of the depth chart! His running will be augmented by probably the best offensive line in all of college football. Even new NC State transfer quarterback Russell Wilson will get in on the running action, as he is (in my opinion) almost as exciting to watch as fellow Big 10 quarterback Denard Robinson. The defense is solid great. The schedule lines up near perfectly; in fact, the Badgers don't even play a true road game until October 22 at Michigan State.
Where their problems lie: Honestly, this team might have the smallest downside in all of college football. But they did lose quite a few outstanding high draft picks. High picks translate to big talent. Big talent in the NFL draft translates to loss of talent at Camp Randall. So while Wisconsin certainly returns enough talent to make a run, they've also lost a considerable amount of defensive front seven/offensive line skill too. I also have small concerns about Russell Wilson being able to run like he did in the ACC. The guy is talented, but ACC defenses are built differently than Big 10 defenses at pretty much every level. His running ability could potentially see a drop off playing against different style defenses.
What you can expect: Wisconsin to win the Big 10 and make a repeat appearance in the Rose Bowl. Nebraska features a similar offense with a dual threat quarterback, but they dont have the skill all over the field that the Badgers do. Their October 1 game will certainly be a great College GameDay Game, but I don't expect Nebraska to leave with a win. Wisconsin will most likely be tested the most while visiting Ohio State because of the sheer power of the Buckeye trenches; look for Ohio State to possibly turn the tables on a Wisconsin team that knocked Ohio State from their undefeated perch last year. The Badgers still make it through the Big 10 and championship game with a double digit win season and find themselves in the BCS postseason once again.
2. Oklahoma
Why they will contend: Oklahoma is flat out talented. Everywhere. I could go through and list all the positions they're good at, but that would get boring fast. Imagine a football position, and and Oklahoma has skill talent there.
Where their problems lie: Hey, do you remember Sam Bradford's senior season? Yeah, me neither. Oklahoma has a nasty habit of suffering injuries and other setbacks that deplete their depth, and that nasty habit has already reared its ugly head this year. Travis Lewis, who has led the Sooners in tackles for the past three years, just broke his toe and will miss probably the first 5 or 6 weeks of the season. Senior middle linebacker Austin Box died from painkiller OD in May. Breakout talent defensive end Ronnell Lewis appears to be academically ineligble and will likely miss this season. DT Daniel Noble is giving up football due to effects of a concussion he sustained last year and never quite got over. The hits keep on coming for the Sooners. And while everyone was so hip to talk about the run game with DeMarco Murray last year, let's have a reality check. He averaged 3.3 ypc, and he was an absolute stud. That offensive line might be great for protecting the pocket, but they somehow aren't nearly as good at opening up running lanes. If they can only get 3.3 yards for Murrary, what will they manage for the poor shmuck running the ball for Oklahoma this year?
What you can expect: See above rant for Texas A&M. Oklahoma goes 11-1 but doesn't win the Big 12. Hop off the bandwagon before it crashes over a bridge and into the Red River, folks.
1. Alabama
Why they will contend: Defense, defense, defense. Five star recruits permeate through Alabama's defense in the same way that Lacrosse pennies line the streets and sidewalks of JMU: they're so ubiquitous that it's kind of obnoxious. The offense is led by absolute freak Trent Richardson, who... well, there are no words for him. He's just a freak. Go youtube his workouts, you'll see what I mean. He doesn't have the lateral movement or pure lane running abilities of a Marcus Lattimore, but Richardson has the tenaciousness of a runner who is not afraid to drop his shoulder and shirk tough defenses. And in the SEC, that toughness is probably the most important quality you can find in a runningback.
Where their problems lie: There's not much you can say that's bad about Alabama. The departure of key offensive weapons Greg McElroy and first round draft pick Julio Jones will certainly leave the offense less explosive. Alabama will have to lean on the running game to put points up on the board and hope that its offense isn't left too one dimensional.
What you can expect: Regardless of how efficient the Crimson Tide offense is, expect their defense to keep them in every single game they play. They get other SEC west hopefuls Arkansas and LSU at home, which should lead to a definite inside track to the SEC title game. I don't think Alabama goes undefeated like they did two years ago, but I do think they have the easiest shot at the SEC title. Whether they execute with a young offense and actually win remains to be seen.
I will continue my preseason coverage right up til the college football kickoff next Thursday night. Welcome to football season!
5. South Carolina
Why they will contend: I've said it before and I'll say it again- the SEC will be a run first league this year. Lucky for gamecock fans and the good people of South Carolina, Steve Spurrier has assembled a dynamic run attack led by all-star runningback Marcus Lattimore. He shredded defenses a freshman last year and will be back for a 2011-2012 campaign to do the exact same thing all over again. Lattimore will probably see a good 55% of the total touches this year- just enough to make him the primary weapon without working him too hard and probably injuring him. Another large chunk of the action will be seen by Alshawn Jeffrey, a fantastic weapon that will keep the chains moving when Lattimore needs to hit up the Gatorade cooler. Oh yeah, don't forget about the solid offensive line supporting them and an awesome front 7 on the defensive end.
Where their problems lie: Stephen Garcia, Stephen Garcia, and Stephen Garcia. It's pretty rare that you're quarterback is actually the weak spot of your offense in this day and age, but Garcia is the clear object of many pointing fingers in the college football landscape right now. His ball skills are adequate enough to keep the offense running, but his constant mental focus issues could honestly be this programs undoing. He's been suspended multiple times for off the field issues- he's not out there robbing banks or even selling rings for tattoos, people, he just does stupid stuff- and his absence could completely derail South Carolina's shot at the SEC title and beyond. Lattimore might be a monster, but if you have a quarterback starting his very first game in the middle of SEC play, things don't look great for your team.
What you can expect: The gamecocks really only have one difficult game in the first half of their schedule: playing in Athens in week 2. I think a tough running attack overpowers an already fatigued and slightly overrated Georgia team as South Carolina cruises to a 6-0 start. Three consecutive road games at Miss St, Tennessee, and Arkansas leave South Carolina at 7-2, but a 3-0 finish leaves Spurrier's squad playing in the SEC title game. South Carolina again gets blown out by superior SEC West competition as Garcia sits for personal reasons, but a 10 win season leaves South Carolina's team in the running for the SEC's second BCS bowl bid and fans happy.
4. Texas A&M
Why they will contend: There's something to said for a team that finishes hot. There's also something to be said for a team that returns most of their players. Put them together, and there's a lot that can be said for Texas A&M. A physical and experienced team, the Aggies have a hugely talented running game that should be strong enough to counter most of the problems usually associated with breaking in new quarterbacks. The defense is of a high caliber. Maybe the most important thing to note is the managebility of the schedule- while A&M does have play at Oklahoma, the more or less unanimous conference favorite, their only other road games are Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech. The Aggies will get to host preseason #9 Oklahoma State and preseason #21 Missouri along with the remaining three Big 12 teams.
Where their problems lie: There will inevitably be growing pains with this new freshman in a league like the Big 12- the real question is how big those pains will be and how long they will last. The schedule doesn't leave much room for error- top ten teams are showing up in College Station by week 4.
What you can expect: Obviously I am quite a bit higher on A&M than most other people, but I think people are underselling Texas A&M because of the overstatement of preseason #1 Oklahoma. Oklahoma is not invincible, and I think Texas A&M will beat them. The following is a highly specific and thus probably very wrong prediction, but here's what I think happens: because Oklahoma is #1 right now, they are an inevitable favorite to make a run at a BCS championship bid. However, now that the Big 12 is no longer divided into two divisions, the margin for error in the league in much smaller. Rather than having the opportunity to drop a game but still win the league via a championship game win, teams must now win the conference outright to secure their BCS bid. In other words, egular season games are worth significantly more over in Tornado Alley. Texas A&M will certainly drop a conference game- whether it's Mizzou or OSU, it doesn't really matter. I also think they lose their neutral site game to Arkansas, leaving them at 10-2. Oklahoma goes 11-1 with their only loss to A&M. The Aggies win the Big 12 despite their inferior record, and the Sooners are denied any sort of BCS bid completely because of the depth of the SEC/Pac12. Oklahoma plays in the Cotton Bowl in what is easily the best non-BCS bowl game of the year. Texas A&M goes to the BCS. Oklahoma Sooner fans are once again disappointed, regardless of the outcome of the bowl game.
Wow, now I feel like Fred Weasley calling for Ireland to win while Viktor Krum catches thes snitch. If that all comes true, I deserve to be paid for this.
3. Wisconsin
Why they will contend: Another team I'm really high on, there is a LOT to like about the Badgers this year. Where to even begin? Wisconsin has a great tradition at the runningback spot, and this year is no different. RB White returns to tear up backfields, linemen, and secondaries as he did last year when he wasn't even on top of the depth chart! His running will be augmented by probably the best offensive line in all of college football. Even new NC State transfer quarterback Russell Wilson will get in on the running action, as he is (in my opinion) almost as exciting to watch as fellow Big 10 quarterback Denard Robinson. The defense is solid great. The schedule lines up near perfectly; in fact, the Badgers don't even play a true road game until October 22 at Michigan State.
Where their problems lie: Honestly, this team might have the smallest downside in all of college football. But they did lose quite a few outstanding high draft picks. High picks translate to big talent. Big talent in the NFL draft translates to loss of talent at Camp Randall. So while Wisconsin certainly returns enough talent to make a run, they've also lost a considerable amount of defensive front seven/offensive line skill too. I also have small concerns about Russell Wilson being able to run like he did in the ACC. The guy is talented, but ACC defenses are built differently than Big 10 defenses at pretty much every level. His running ability could potentially see a drop off playing against different style defenses.
What you can expect: Wisconsin to win the Big 10 and make a repeat appearance in the Rose Bowl. Nebraska features a similar offense with a dual threat quarterback, but they dont have the skill all over the field that the Badgers do. Their October 1 game will certainly be a great College GameDay Game, but I don't expect Nebraska to leave with a win. Wisconsin will most likely be tested the most while visiting Ohio State because of the sheer power of the Buckeye trenches; look for Ohio State to possibly turn the tables on a Wisconsin team that knocked Ohio State from their undefeated perch last year. The Badgers still make it through the Big 10 and championship game with a double digit win season and find themselves in the BCS postseason once again.
2. Oklahoma
Why they will contend: Oklahoma is flat out talented. Everywhere. I could go through and list all the positions they're good at, but that would get boring fast. Imagine a football position, and and Oklahoma has skill talent there.
Where their problems lie: Hey, do you remember Sam Bradford's senior season? Yeah, me neither. Oklahoma has a nasty habit of suffering injuries and other setbacks that deplete their depth, and that nasty habit has already reared its ugly head this year. Travis Lewis, who has led the Sooners in tackles for the past three years, just broke his toe and will miss probably the first 5 or 6 weeks of the season. Senior middle linebacker Austin Box died from painkiller OD in May. Breakout talent defensive end Ronnell Lewis appears to be academically ineligble and will likely miss this season. DT Daniel Noble is giving up football due to effects of a concussion he sustained last year and never quite got over. The hits keep on coming for the Sooners. And while everyone was so hip to talk about the run game with DeMarco Murray last year, let's have a reality check. He averaged 3.3 ypc, and he was an absolute stud. That offensive line might be great for protecting the pocket, but they somehow aren't nearly as good at opening up running lanes. If they can only get 3.3 yards for Murrary, what will they manage for the poor shmuck running the ball for Oklahoma this year?
What you can expect: See above rant for Texas A&M. Oklahoma goes 11-1 but doesn't win the Big 12. Hop off the bandwagon before it crashes over a bridge and into the Red River, folks.
1. Alabama
Why they will contend: Defense, defense, defense. Five star recruits permeate through Alabama's defense in the same way that Lacrosse pennies line the streets and sidewalks of JMU: they're so ubiquitous that it's kind of obnoxious. The offense is led by absolute freak Trent Richardson, who... well, there are no words for him. He's just a freak. Go youtube his workouts, you'll see what I mean. He doesn't have the lateral movement or pure lane running abilities of a Marcus Lattimore, but Richardson has the tenaciousness of a runner who is not afraid to drop his shoulder and shirk tough defenses. And in the SEC, that toughness is probably the most important quality you can find in a runningback.
Where their problems lie: There's not much you can say that's bad about Alabama. The departure of key offensive weapons Greg McElroy and first round draft pick Julio Jones will certainly leave the offense less explosive. Alabama will have to lean on the running game to put points up on the board and hope that its offense isn't left too one dimensional.
What you can expect: Regardless of how efficient the Crimson Tide offense is, expect their defense to keep them in every single game they play. They get other SEC west hopefuls Arkansas and LSU at home, which should lead to a definite inside track to the SEC title game. I don't think Alabama goes undefeated like they did two years ago, but I do think they have the easiest shot at the SEC title. Whether they execute with a young offense and actually win remains to be seen.
I will continue my preseason coverage right up til the college football kickoff next Thursday night. Welcome to football season!
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