Five Colonial teams are 2-1 or better, so after a little bit of JMU talk, I'll be walking through the CAA contenders and forecasting who'll be in or out of the playoffs.
#18 JMU 38, Richmond 31
So we're starting at home in Harrisonburg, obviously, with the not-as-close-as-the-score-looked win over the Richmond Spiders. And despite giving up 22 points in the 4th quarter, this was one of the best games I've watched JMU play in some time. The playcalling was dynamic, particularly in the second half. Dae'Quan Scott, Khalid Abdullah, and Daniel Brown all look like first-rate conference playmakers. Birdsong wasn't perfect, overthrowing a receiver early on and getting picked play by a safety playing center field, but looked lethal spinning the ball downfield in the second half. He still needs to learn how to throw the ball away -- I think I saw him unnecessarily run the ball out of bounds for a loss close to half a dozen times -- but the Dukes' signal caller really looked lethal out there for large portions of Saturday's game.
On defense, JMU gave up 423 passing yards through the air, but since UR also set a stadium record for pass attempts, I think you can likely write the yardage off as a function of playing from behind as well as the Spiders' offensive strengths. The Spiders have too much talent on offense for JMU to completely shut them down, but on Saturday, the Dukes truly looked like a successful "bend, don't break" defense. Richmond got past midfield several times, but couldn't put 6 up on the board until the fourth quarter when the game was already out of hand.
As for Richmond, they're a decent teams suffering a bad fate. Their schedule gets awfully winnable after this, drawing Rhode Island, Stony Brook, and Albany over the next four weeks. They won't make the playoffs, but circle October 26 on your calendar. When Towson comes to Richmond and the Spiders are playing for pride, anything could happen.
And JMU, going forward? Well, the Dukes will need to survive Williamsburg on October 26, a game that will likely be a lot closer than people realize. If JMU gets caught looking past the Tribe toward a home showdown with undefeated Villanova on November 2, it could seriously jeopardize the Dukes' playoff chances... again.
I like JMU by double digits at home vs Stony Brook and at New Hampshire, and I'll give them the benefit of the doubt after a bye week at Bill & Mary. Assuming JMU splits with Nova and Towson, the Dukes are looking at a 9-3 overall record, with a 6-2 conference record. That's likely not good enough for a CAA title, but a 9-3 JMU team is a lock for the FCS playoffs... assuming they take care of business.
Delaware (5-2, 2-1 CAA)
The Hens have a somewhat high ceiling but a low floor, which is why you see them upend JMU, then get blown out by Maine and barely edge out Albany (the conference's worst team) at home. The Hens will get to 3-1 at Rhode Island this weekend, but with Towson, W&M, Richmond, and the annual rivalry game vs Villanova over the final four weeks, this teams nice start to conference play will ultimately be undone.
Verdict: Will not make Playoffs
Towson (6-1, 2-1 CAA)
The fightin' Rob Ambroses have the talent to win a conference title and go deep into the playoffs, but they've already lost a key matchup with Villanova at home. That means they'll need help from JMU and Maine/Delaware if they want to grab the CAA's automatic bid. I think that's probably too much to ask for. I don't see them finishing worse than 9-3, with all three losses coming in the heart of conference play. With 9 wins, a top-four CAA finish, and an upset win over the hapless UConn Huskies, Towson is locked into the playoffs.
Verdict: Will not win CAA; will make playoffs
Maine (5-1, 2-0 CAA)
You could play football in the Virginia High School League's Central District in Richmond and play a tougher schedule than Maine has this year. I don't know what kind of dirt the boys from Maine have on the league office, but this schedule is a gift from Walter Peyton himself. Maine travels to Philly for a road game with Villanova on October 26; that's going to be the big ole Black Bear's only loss. And if Nova stumbles down the stretch, Maine will be first in line to grab the crown at 10-2 with only one conference loss.
Verdict: Will not win CAA; will make playoffs
Villanova (4-2, 3-0 CAA)
Drawing Maine and JMU in back-to-back weekends is tough sledding for Villanova, particularly when they already played Towson. But what do you want me to do, feel sorry for them?
I like the Cats to win the CAA, but it won't be bloodless. They're going to lose at JMU. They're going to win the conference. But they're going to lose at JMU. Say it with me now kids. THEY'RE GOING TO LOSE AT JMU. RIGHT? AM I RIGHT? I'M RIGHT, RIGHT?
Verdict: Will win CAA
So there you have it. Four CAA teams make an expanded FCS playoff field. Sounds about right.
Hugely underrated aspect of this game has been UR's inability to block #JMU without holding them. 3 big penalties have wiped out nice gains.The pass rush was out in force last Saturday. Whether it was sacks or just forcing the UR offensive line to hold, JMU's defense did its job. It's going to give up big plays and it's going to give up yardage. But there's enough playmakers at all three levels of the defense to make big stops and force key turnovers, and that will be big throughout the rest of the regular season... and perhaps beyond.
— Chase Kiddy (@ckiddysports) October 12, 2013
As for Richmond, they're a decent teams suffering a bad fate. Their schedule gets awfully winnable after this, drawing Rhode Island, Stony Brook, and Albany over the next four weeks. They won't make the playoffs, but circle October 26 on your calendar. When Towson comes to Richmond and the Spiders are playing for pride, anything could happen.
And JMU, going forward? Well, the Dukes will need to survive Williamsburg on October 26, a game that will likely be a lot closer than people realize. If JMU gets caught looking past the Tribe toward a home showdown with undefeated Villanova on November 2, it could seriously jeopardize the Dukes' playoff chances... again.
I like JMU by double digits at home vs Stony Brook and at New Hampshire, and I'll give them the benefit of the doubt after a bye week at Bill & Mary. Assuming JMU splits with Nova and Towson, the Dukes are looking at a 9-3 overall record, with a 6-2 conference record. That's likely not good enough for a CAA title, but a 9-3 JMU team is a lock for the FCS playoffs... assuming they take care of business.
Delaware (5-2, 2-1 CAA)
The Hens have a somewhat high ceiling but a low floor, which is why you see them upend JMU, then get blown out by Maine and barely edge out Albany (the conference's worst team) at home. The Hens will get to 3-1 at Rhode Island this weekend, but with Towson, W&M, Richmond, and the annual rivalry game vs Villanova over the final four weeks, this teams nice start to conference play will ultimately be undone.
Verdict: Will not make Playoffs
Towson (6-1, 2-1 CAA)
The fightin' Rob Ambroses have the talent to win a conference title and go deep into the playoffs, but they've already lost a key matchup with Villanova at home. That means they'll need help from JMU and Maine/Delaware if they want to grab the CAA's automatic bid. I think that's probably too much to ask for. I don't see them finishing worse than 9-3, with all three losses coming in the heart of conference play. With 9 wins, a top-four CAA finish, and an upset win over the hapless UConn Huskies, Towson is locked into the playoffs.
Verdict: Will not win CAA; will make playoffs
Maine (5-1, 2-0 CAA)
You could play football in the Virginia High School League's Central District in Richmond and play a tougher schedule than Maine has this year. I don't know what kind of dirt the boys from Maine have on the league office, but this schedule is a gift from Walter Peyton himself. Maine travels to Philly for a road game with Villanova on October 26; that's going to be the big ole Black Bear's only loss. And if Nova stumbles down the stretch, Maine will be first in line to grab the crown at 10-2 with only one conference loss.
Verdict: Will not win CAA; will make playoffs
Villanova (4-2, 3-0 CAA)
Drawing Maine and JMU in back-to-back weekends is tough sledding for Villanova, particularly when they already played Towson. But what do you want me to do, feel sorry for them?
I like the Cats to win the CAA, but it won't be bloodless. They're going to lose at JMU. They're going to win the conference. But they're going to lose at JMU. Say it with me now kids. THEY'RE GOING TO LOSE AT JMU. RIGHT? AM I RIGHT? I'M RIGHT, RIGHT?
Verdict: Will win CAA
So there you have it. Four CAA teams make an expanded FCS playoff field. Sounds about right.
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