Saturday, March 17, 2012

Day Two Reaction

This is probably a historic day of upsets.  It's probably safe to say that never before has such a rediculous day unfolded. 10's, 11's, and 12's all won, all topped off my the never-before-seen two separate 15 seeds topping two different 2 seeds.  Good grief.  Where to even begin.

Well, I guess I'll begin with my bracket.  Today was almost the exact same as yesterday. The day started off perfect, and I moved through the day perfect until about 6 or 7.  Then... well the shit hit the fan, to be frank. I dropped several of my last final games to finish the weekend 20/32. The bad news is that. I'm only 4 games above .500.  The good news is that most of the teams I whiffed on don't matter, at least historically speaking.  I missed on a lot of teams that are likely to lose before the end of the weekend.  The bigtime players are all still in it.  Neither Duke nor Missouri made it past the Sweet 16 in my bracket, which most people can't say.  That means that, though I might be taking a point dip right now, I should end up ahead of most people in my pools.

For example, first place in one particular pool has scored 24/32 so far. He picked four more games correctly than I did. However, the absolute maximum number of points he can score is 132 because of the advancement of Mizzou and Duke. (Keep in mind we operate on a standard 1/2/4 scale in this particular pool.) Meanwhile, I'm sitting at 20/32 (still in the top 10 of the pool), but my maximum is 164.  I had Missouri losing to Marquette and Duke losing to the ND/Xavier winner. So the damage is minimized. In the long term, I benefit from the chaos.  So even though I lost points, I'm sitting pretty happy after the first full round.

Other thoughts from today:

-Offense beats defense... at least for today. That's the message when Creighton pulls out a one point win over defense-minded Alabama.  I'm certainly anxious for the fate of my Bluejays, who I have in the NC game.  If they can barely beat a 9 seed, can they really knock off UNC. Are they really a Final Four threat?

Then I remember Butler's game winner over ODU last March, and I feel alright.

-Like VCU, Cincinatti's ability to close out games might end up hurting them by the end of the NCAA touranment. But still, they looked pretty good today. Yancy Gates proved that he can fufill a role besides designated face-puncher, and they are a serious threat to knock off Florida State, who I have schedule to make a deep run in this tournament.

-HAHAHAHA, Georgetown is totally gonna drop another game as a high ranked seed playing a dangerous low-major team... wait, what? They won by 25?

My bracket has NC State upsetting both San Diego State and Georgetown. I like how the Pack has played recently, but it's hard to argue with the beatdown the Hoyas laid on a pretty good Belmont team today.  This might finally be the year Georgetown breaks through and plays like the team they are capable of being.

-Lehigh (a team who has never won an NCAA game) defeating the ultra-elite Duke might make the best movie some day in the future, but don't get it twisted. Norfolk State over Mizzou was the biggest upset of the day, and maybe of all time. The MEAC is about as unheralded as they come, and Mizzou is a very good team, even if their unconventional sets (4 guards) do have flaws built into the system itself. Meanwhile, Duke might be the most overrated fourth-ranked team of all time.  They occupied the top 5 for most of the seaosn, but they sure weren't playing like it. I picked Duke to lose before this weekend was over because all it would take for them to drop out was a bad shooting night. People will argue over whether today's outing should be classified as a "bad shooting night," but what they won't argue over is how disappointing Coach K's squad has been this year. Duke seems to be all or nothing in NCAA tournaments since the year 2001; either they win the whole thing, or they make a completely odd, unexpectedly early exit.

-You know what? Ditto for Michigan.  Both Michigan and Duke are teams that have lived and died by the 3-point shot, and well... they both died by it tonight. Neither did enough to survive the night, and now John Beilein is stuck scratching his head.  Shoulda stayed in Morgantown, Johnny.

-Team that looked the best today: Georgetown and Florida both deserve some honorable mention, but I'm going with NC State.  The hottest team in this NCAA tournament continued their hotness by more or less dominating sixth seed San Diego St today.  As I mentioned earlier, I have the Pack in the Sweet 16. They're capable of going farther than that based on how well they are playing right now, but I'm not sure they have to talent to knock off a Kansas or a UNC.

Remaining S16 Teams after Day 2: 10/16 (Notre Dame, Missouri, Temple out)
Remaining F4 Teams after Day 2: 4/4 (UK, MSU, FSU, Creighton still in)

No comments: