Fun with Math (and Other Hobbies that Won't Get me Invited to Parties)

Since this week is centered all around bracket possibilities, autobids, and the ever-changing bubble, I thought I'd do a piece that breaks down the math behind tournament selections.  So if you're looking to understand the big dance a little further... BEHOLD!  bracket math:


Including the "new" bids that have been added to the postseason this year, there are now 68 bids to the NCAA tournament.  31 teams get to the tournament via "autobids," one from each major Division 1 conference.  Most conferences choose to award an autobid based on the winner of their own postseason tournament (hence the importance of this week).  However, some conferences (most prominently the Ivy League) choose to award their autobid based on the winner of the regular season instead of a conference tournament.

So, since 31/68 are automatic handouts, the remaining 37 are referred to as "at large" bids.  Basically, the committee chooses the best remaining 37 teams based on marquee wins, overall records, strength of schedule, and the infamous "eye" test- how good you feel a team is just by watching it.

Now, here's where it gets interesting.

By my reckoning, the following teams are locks for at large bids.  For the purposes of this conversation, their seeding is irrelevant.

Duke
North Carolina
Florida State
Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Syracuse
West Virginia
Cincinatti
Louisville
St Johns
UConn
Ohio St
Purdue
Wisconsin
Kansas
Texas
Kansas State
Texas A&M
Missouri
Arizona
UCLA
Washington
Florida
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
San Diego State
BYU
UNLV
Xavier
Temple
George Mason
ODU
Gonzaga
St Marys
Richmond

In case you weren't counting, that's 37 teams.  However, because the above teams represent ten conferences which will all get multiple bids (the power 6 plus the MWC, the WCC, the CAA, and the A10), you can subtract 10 from the 37 to represent the above teams that are strong enough to get at large bids, but will end up with autobids and thus not take up an at large spot.

That leaves 10 spots available for all teams that do not get an autobid and are not listed above.  10 spots, people.  Remember that.

Now, for list number two.  The following are teams that are on the "bubble."  (They're profiles are not strong enough in order to guarentee an at large bid at this time).

Villanova
Marquette
Clemson
Virginia Tech
Boston College
Illinois
Michigan State
Colorado
Nebraska
Baylor
USC
Georgia
Alabama
Colorado State
Missouri State
Utah State
UAB

As you can see, I have listed 17 teams.  Only ten can enter the tournament; only six can avoid the "first four" round in Dayton, Ohio next Tuesday, where you essentially are playing your way into the round of 64 (even those these teams technically were already picked by the selection committee).  Who does ESPN think will go?  Well, ESPN's expert bracketologist Joe Lunardi can be found with his most updated picks here.  And if you wanna check out his latest live chat with fans, check that out here.  (you might recognize one of the participants)

As for my opinion?  Well, the bubble is so soft this year that I couldn't possibly figure out who the committee would pick.  But if I was in charge, I would probably choose the following ten teams, after slitting my wrists for lack of better teams to put forward.

Villanova
Marquette
Illinois
Michigan
UAB
Clemson
Boston College
Utah St
Georgia
Colorado

Check out the blog tomorrow for tournament updates and predictions.