Every week this season, I listen to talking heads tell me about how down the Big 12 is. They're no good. The format of the conference isn't tenable and can't challenge for a playoff spot. They don't play any defense. Without Texas and Oklahoma, this conference is a glorified version of the Mountain West.
But let's look at the numbers. It doesn't take a statistical wizard to figure out that, because the conference is smaller, it will have fewer championship contenders. All things being equal, it should also mean the conference has less pushovers at the bottom of the standings as well.
Breaking the Big 12 out into tiers, we have the following:
The Undefeated --
- No. 9 Baylor
- No. 12 West Virginia
The Contenders --
- No. 16 Oklahoma
- TCU
The Wildcards
- Kansas State
- Oklahoma State
The Middlers
- Texas
- Texas Tech
The Dumpster Fires
- Iowa State
- Kansas
Texas and Texas Tech have some good pieces, but neither plays any defense, so they're probably destined to be .500 teams. Iowa State and Kansas have been scrappy in conference play, but are generally pretty terrible. Kansas State and Oklahoma State have the potential to make things interesting, because of Snyder's defense and Gundy's offense. Each will probably cause one big upset before it's all said and done, but don't necessarily have a team to compete for a championship.
Then, we get to the guys worth talking about. I would argue the team we know the most about is West Virginia -- at least we have results from them worth parsing. Baylor has, literally, the weakest strength of schedule in FBS football. TCU has played six games; they went 4-0 against bad teams (South Dakota State, Iowa State, SMU, Kansas) and 0-2 against good teams (Arkansas, Oklahoma). Similarly, the Sooners lost a game to Ohio State -- no shame there -- as well as the well-watched loss to Houston.
The Houston loss was a real problem, for both OU and the Big 12 at large. Fresh off an appearance in last season's NCAA playoff (we'll come back to that later), Oklahoma dropped it's first game of the year to a G5 school, albeit maybe the best one of the young playoff era. This is the game that's responsible for the current Big 12 narrative.
So why did I take you through all that? Well, to point out the fact that 20% of the conference (West Virginia/Baylor) is undefeated and ranked in the top 15, and that a third team (Oklahoma) is ranked in the top 20 and could still challenge for a conference championship, and maybe even a playoff spot. From a purely mathematical standpoint, even Oklahoma State and TCU could still easily challenge for the conference title.
How many other conferences can say that? How many other conferences have 30% of their conference ranked and still in contention for one of the four playoff spots? How many other conferences still have 50% of their members in the thick of the conference title race?
For context, the SEC has eight teams (57%) in the top 25, though three of the five are slotted in the 21-25 spots, and appear to be in there simply because AP voters ran out of teams to rank. Ole Miss is 3-3 and still ranked.
The top-heavy Big 10 has four teams in the top 10, but the rest of the conference is a complete mess. The conference could very well win the national championship this year, and have its other three best teams goes 3-0 in prominent bowl games, but the rest of conference? Good luck finding a bowl-winner anywhere in there. Michigan State has fallen off a cliff, Purdue just fired its coach, Iowa is uninspiring. Who's left? Minnesota?
The ACC has three ranked teams. The coastal is approaching greek tragedy territory. The Pac-12? Washington has looked great, but after Stanford and Oregon's precipitous falls, shouldn't we re-evaluate their body of work?
My point is that this is all fluid and up for debate. You might not like the Big 12, and the lack of quality depth after Oklahoma is a legitimate criticism to levy at the conference. But the negatives of this conference have been unfairly magnified, and its three championship contenders have been mysteriously downplayed. This conference doesn't have a legitimacy problem; it has an optics one.
TCU at No. 12 West Virginia (3:30 on ABC)
TCU is coming off a bye. West Virginia is coming off a beatdown of Texas Tech. The game opened at WVU -4, and the Mountaineers are currently six-point favorites.
Like last week, I could spend time breaking down this game. I would talk about West Virginia's front seven, and how often Tony Gibson blitzes, and how TCU could neutralize that with its excellent run game.
Instead, I'm going to give you a short list of reasons why West Virginia isn't "for real," and whether or not they're legitimate criticisms.
1. West Virginia hasn't played anybody.
Strength of Schedule is in the 30s. Non-conference wins over BYU, Missouri, and Youngstown State. Sure, that doesn't scream gauntlet, but it's also not a bunch of cupcakes either. It's a solid, standard mix of teams. Let's look at the out of conference schedules for some of the teams ranked ahead of West Virginia:
No. 5 Washington -- Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State.
No. 8 Baylor -- Northwestern State, Southern Methodist, Rice.
No. 1 Alabama -- Southern Cal, Western Kentucky, Kent State, Chatanooga
No. 6 Texas A&M -- UCLA, Prairie View A&M, New Mexico State, Texas-San Antonio
Why, do you ask, does the SEC have four out-of-conference games? Well, that's because they play less conferences games! Conferences like the Pac-12 and Big 12 increase their schedule difficulty by playing 9 conference games. The SEC and ACC only play eight, and fills the ninth spot with a bullshit team.
Context matters. West Virginia's OOC schedule isn't daunting, but it's, at worst, par for the course.
Grade: False
2. The Big 12 doesn't have a realistic chance at the playoff, so there isn't much use getting excited over an undefeated West Virginia team.
The playoff committee has made it very clear that they value strength of schedule and conference champions. An undefeated Big 12 champion will likely get in over a one-loss Pac 12 or ACC champion. It's hard to make those calls without the context of a completed season, but I don't feel that the disparity between conferences is so great that a one-loss Washington team tops an undefeated Big 12 champion.
Grade: False
3. West Virginia is coasting off it's offensive reputation.
Okay, fine, so no one is actually saying that this week. But it is true. Lost in WVU's 50-point outing against Texas Tech's putrid defense was that, prior to Week 7, West Virginia's red zone offense was actually pretty terrible.
The Mountaineers move the ball fine, but when they're bunched up in space near the end zone, the offense starts to sputter. In a way, watching WVU's red zone offense is a bit like trying to pee on command -- you try so, so hard that nothing really comes out. They haven't been loose. If West Virginia really has figured something out, great. But without better offensive execution, this team may struggle to score against elite defenses.
Grade: True
4. West Virginia, like most Big 12 teams, doesn't play any defense.
If you have made a "West Virginia and defense? lolz" joke this week, you obviously have not watched this team.
Grade: False
Other games to watch:
No. 6 Texas A&M at Alabama.
Do you want to know how hard the media has doubled down on Alabama this year? Seven different times on seven different shows, this week, I have been forced to endure "is this Saban's best team ever?" I don't even know if this team cracks the top 5 of Saban squads.
The sixth-ranked team in college football is getting NINETEEN points against Alabama. We are barreling toward an over-correction. Give me the Aggies. Not, like, to cover. Give me A&M to win.
No. 22 North Carolina at UVA
According to the national weather service, there is not currently a hurricane over Charlottesville, so the Tarheels stand an excellent chance at winning this game and exerting some control over a lame Coastal division.
No. 23 Ole Miss at No. 25 LSU
Be honest, AP voters. Did you guys just run out of teams to rank?
GET OFF MY LAWN, DAMN IT
Here's video of Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy this week, where he goes full-on Clint Eastwood and blames cell phones and technology for parity in college football. No, seriously. It starts at the 16:10 mark. He finishes his statement by stating, "I know that seems a little extreme." Uhh, yeah.
"There are two theories when arguing with women, and neither one works."
If you've had themisfortune privilege to read some of my gaming reviews or listen to me ramble about video games, you know I consider high-level games to be a subsection of literature. Well, this week, a new bestseller was announced, via the following trailer.
I consider the original Red Dead Redemption to be one of the five best games ever created. It dealt with themes like the value of one's past and the price of progress in civilization. It is, simply put, a masterpiece. It has far-reaching influence -- most notably, the new HBO show Westworld, which pulls from Michael Crichton's original source material as well as 2010's Redemption. And now, we're getting a sequel.
I have no idea whether Rockstar can recapture the nuance and depth of protagonist John Marston. But it looks like this sequel pulls inspiration from The Magnificent Seven, so for that alone, plus the pedigree that Rockstar brings from its previous iteration, I'm all in.
Debts and Diseases Double-Down
3-2 last week, plus some bonus cash if you followed by BYU +7/Under parlay last night, so good for you guys. Don't spend it all in one place.
This week, we're feasting on some supremely questionable SEC lines, which don't make any sense at all. We shall shamelessly take advantage! (Or, perhaps, lose all the money we made last week, because Vegas is smarter than all of us, and don't you ever forget it.)
$: Ole Miss +7.5/LSU
$$: Arkansas +10.5/Auburn
$$$: Texas A&M +19/Alabama
Chalk play of the week: Ohio State -19.5. Sure, there could be a hangover after a big road win at Camp Randall. But 4-2 Penn State is the definition of a paper tiger, and the Nittany Lions just don't really have the personnel to hang with Ohio State. Ohio State should win by 3+ touchdowns, which mean you can feel relatively confident pulling the trigger on a relatively modest line, all things considered.
Bonus play: Kansas State +1 at home. Snyder's team has been undervalued for about three years now. You're getting points at home. Take it and run.
If you've had the
I consider the original Red Dead Redemption to be one of the five best games ever created. It dealt with themes like the value of one's past and the price of progress in civilization. It is, simply put, a masterpiece. It has far-reaching influence -- most notably, the new HBO show Westworld, which pulls from Michael Crichton's original source material as well as 2010's Redemption. And now, we're getting a sequel.
I have no idea whether Rockstar can recapture the nuance and depth of protagonist John Marston. But it looks like this sequel pulls inspiration from The Magnificent Seven, so for that alone, plus the pedigree that Rockstar brings from its previous iteration, I'm all in.
Debts and Diseases Double-Down
3-2 last week, plus some bonus cash if you followed by BYU +7/Under parlay last night, so good for you guys. Don't spend it all in one place.
This week, we're feasting on some supremely questionable SEC lines, which don't make any sense at all. We shall shamelessly take advantage! (Or, perhaps, lose all the money we made last week, because Vegas is smarter than all of us, and don't you ever forget it.)
$: Ole Miss +7.5/LSU
$$: Arkansas +10.5/Auburn
$$$: Texas A&M +19/Alabama
Chalk play of the week: Ohio State -19.5. Sure, there could be a hangover after a big road win at Camp Randall. But 4-2 Penn State is the definition of a paper tiger, and the Nittany Lions just don't really have the personnel to hang with Ohio State. Ohio State should win by 3+ touchdowns, which mean you can feel relatively confident pulling the trigger on a relatively modest line, all things considered.
Bonus play: Kansas State +1 at home. Snyder's team has been undervalued for about three years now. You're getting points at home. Take it and run.
No comments:
Post a Comment