Sunday, January 13, 2013

Rant Time: Dynasty Warriors


(The following is an unabridged version of a column appearing in The Breeze, JMU's student newspaper. It is part of my weekly Fantatic and Proud series, printed every Thursday. The shortened version ran on Thursday, January 10, 2013.)

She was so sure.

She didn’t stutter or hesitate for one moment, except maybe to slur her words a bit. Her verbiage was littered with definitive statements like “we will win” and “those Crimson guys has no chance.” Sure, the alcohol might have been building her up unnecessarily, but given the chance to recant her bold claims later, under the clear eyes of sobriety, her confidence was nothing short of unwavering.

Notre Dame would win the national championship.

Those were the words of one Cindy Metcalf – name changed to protect the dumbfounded – a junior at Notre Dame. Brimming with pride in early December after her Irish completed their undefeated regular season, Cindy remained so sure that her school would win the BCS national championship that she was prepared to put her money where her mouth was.

Or rather, she was prepared to put her social calendar where her mouth was. Notre Dame would win, or Cindy agreed to go out on a date with me next time we were in town together.

Let’s just ignore the big part of this arrangement that’s altogether insulting, and cut straight to one of my biggest I-told-you-so’s of my college career. Notre Dame was absolutely blasted on Monday night by football powerhouse Alabama, in what ended up being the Irish’s biggest loss on a field since 1845. The Crimson Tide won by a final score of 42-14, and I was reaching for my wallet by the end of the first quarter.

Don't worry ladies. I’m a gentleman, of course. I always pay.

Ultimately, it’s foolish to bet against Alabama head coach Nick Saban. He’s proven time and time again what he can do with a month’s time to prepare for a marquee contest. Why would this January be any exception? Even against a highly touted Notre Dame team, the Southeastern Conference’s best squad looked immortal. They looked untouchable. They looked dynastic.

Dynasty is a rare word in college athletics, and it’s not hard to figure out why. With both athletes and coaches coming in and going out in relatively short amounts of time, turnover isn’t just a nuisance. It’s a built-in obstacle to climb over and work around. But much like his SEC colleague John Calipari has done for University of Kentucky basketball, Saban has turned his institution not into a conduit for learning and growth but a destination for top-end athletes. It might make some fans uncomfortable, but Saban ultimately has to be commended for circumnavigating the landscape of college athletics with such consistency.

The result, much to my friend Cindy’s displeasure, is three championships in the last four years and an 8-1 record in conference or national championship games. In an atmosphere where schools dish out increasingly skyrocketing salaries for wins, Saban’s performance truly is priceless.

Not much college football remains for us to talk about this season. A few more prognostications of how many first round draft picks Alabama will produce this year; an unfathomably early looks at next year’s top 25 teams; maybe even a few more tongue-in-cheek Miss Alabama USA references, pondering if Brent Musberger and discretion need to reintroduce themselves to one another.

Meanwhile, as the talking heads kick back and pontificate, Saban will be out on the recruiting trail (if he isn’t already). In his mind, 48 hours is more than enough time to enjoy that final win of the season before beginning preparation for that next championship. Dynasties aren’t born, after all. They’re built.

As for the Prozac-popping Notre Dame fans out there, they will have to content themselves with their first shot at the crystal trophy since 1988. A 12-0 regular season is certainly nothing to cry about.

...unless you’re my friend Cindy, that is. She very eloquently lamented during the game about how her team was losing to a dumb SEC team that probably couldn’t even read. I waited until the Irish scored a touchdown in the third quarter, and then reassured her that, hey, at least it wasn’t a shutout.

Cheer up, Cindy. At least you’re getting a free dinner out of this.

Friday, January 4, 2013

2013 Wildcard Weekend Predictions

It's a tradition unlike any other...

No, I'm not talking about a Scott Van Pelt-voiced Master's discussion. WE'RE TALKING PLAYOFFS.

Now someone go tell my 9th grade gym class.


Bengals at Texans:
Saturday, 4:30PM

Before we get started, it's worth noting that this year, I'll be making picks both SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread). Public Service Announcement: don't bet money you don't have. I'm not an ATM.

Breaking down Cincinatti and Houston is pretty uncomplex. Houston has a dynamic running game that will be facing off against a Bengals D-line that has been silently one of the best in the game this season. Cincinatti is a hot team; Houston, despite holding the AFC's best record for about 16 and a half weeks, finished their last four games 1-3.

So naturally, I'm rolling with Houston.

It's more of a gut feeling pick than anything else. Houston has looked very mortal over the course of December, but I want to attribute that more to an air of boredom than anything else. The playoffs are here now, and they're playing a team they beat up on last year- don't forget that the Texans blasted the Bengals 31-10 in this same spot last year.

Cincinatti is young and has a bright future, and they're even built to contain a brash running game like that of the Texans. They can even stage quick comebacks in a hurry with Dalton/Green. But I'm still confident Houston will fire on all cylinders in this game, play the ball control game, and keep Andy Dalton frustrated on the road.

SU Pick: Houston
ATS Pick: Houston -4.5


Minnesota at Green Bay
Saturday, 8PM

Honk three times if this matchup sounds familiar.

Except... does it? The difference is that, for the first time practically all year, the Justice League has fully assembled. Cobb is back after missing last week. Jennings has recovered. Jordy Nelson has gotten his head right. And though the offensive line is still cobbled together at best, Aaron Rodgers stands to have a better chance to get passes off with a full complement of receivers.

I love Adrian Peterson, and I was just crushed when he came up eight yards short of the NFL rushing record last weekend. But I think the Packers are going to completely outgun the Vikings this weekend, regardless of how well they manage to contain AP. Meanwhile, the Vikings as a team might come up flat after throwing everything they had at the Pack last week.

I dont like taking greater-than-a-touchdown favorites, but if you're gonna do it, you better hitch your wagon to a beast with some horsepower. With Rodgers, that's what you're getting, though the backdoor admittedly worries me here.

SU Pick: Green Bay
ATS Pick: Green Bay -7.5


Indianapolis at Baltimore
Sunday. 1PM

You could make a pretty compelling argument that, other than Rodgers, Andrew Luck is the best quarterback playing this weekend. Say what you want about the rookie, but he's got a bizarrely inexplicable staying power about him in games. Juxtapose that next to Ray Lewis' retirement, and we've got a good old fashioned fistfight abrewin.

Bottom line, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will find ways to wreck this game. Luck is as cerebral as they come and will improve as the game progresses, but even in a slump, the Ravens will pull a win out to extend the season.

Then, T.Y. Hilton and Dwight Freeney will guest star on the Wire in the offseason. They'll play gangsters that answer to Lewis, and have to put out a hit on Luck. The anti-symmetry is mindblowing.

SU Pick: Baltimore
ATS Pick: Indianapolis +6.5


Seattle at Washington
Sunday, 4:30PM

It's a shame that these two teams have to play each other, simply because they're the hottest teams in the NFL. Nobody has momentum like a suddenly explosive Washington offense, and the Seahawks are just blowing people out (minus a home loss to St Louis last weekend, after San Francisco's win over Arizona locked the 'Hawks into the 5-spot).

As a Dallas fan/coworker at Massanutten told me the other day, Seattle shits the bed in the playoffs every single year. Then again, his argument also highlighted their totally embarassing 2012 playoff loss, which I was quick to point didn't exist, because the Seahawks didn't make the playoffs last year. So maybe I don't agree with his conclusion that "Seattle and the playoffs don't get along," but I still believe in the Redskins. AHH!

Sorry, just threw up all over the keyboard for actually writing the words "I believe in the Redskins." Oh well. Moving on.

Even though it was a meaningless game, I still believe the loss to St. Louis may have cooled Seattle off a little bit. And while I don't believe in Seattle's playoff woes, I for years now have believed they are a far weaker team on the road. They're essentially the Anti-Giants. In fact, if Tom Coughlin says "Seattle Seahawks" backwards, Pete Carroll is forced to return to his home in the fifth dimension and must stay there for a minimum of 90 days.

RGIII is clearly not quite at 100%, but Morris is just as effective as ever. Seattle's secondary is going to force Griffin into some bad throws, there's no doubt about that. And even though I don't feel great about taking the Redskins to win, I love that they're getting three points at home. Best bet of the weekend, methinks.

SU Pick: Washington
ATS Pick: Washington +3