A very happy New Year to you all, and welcome back. The blog has been on extended leave, with finals, JMU athletic department work, and other fun stuff I've been up to. For details, try texting me, you nosey lot. I didnt start a sports blog to brag about how awesome I am.
But speaking of the inception of this sports blog, I would like to take a moment to reflect on the last year. Believe it or not, at this time last year I was a declared Biology major, intent on studying to be a genetic counselor. Over the past 365 days I have become a WRTC major, started a surprisingly well-read sports blog (48 hits from Germany alone in December?), hung out in press boxes, sat courtside for basketball games, talked shit with Mickie Matthews, and called the sports information director by his first name- I don't know why that last one impresses me so much, but it does. Anyway, it's been a wild year for me, but I have all of you readers to thank for that. Thanks for putting up with my twitter rants and improving my self-esteem by checking the "cool" box. Thanks for frequently calling me 4 minutes after I've posted a blog to tell me about editing errors (okay, that one is only my mom). Thanks for bragging to friends about me.
Thanks for taking the time out of your day to listen to my opinions. Because, ultimately, all I have to offer is a writing style and a big basket of opinions. The fact that mine are sought above many others is an invaluable asset.
Okay, enough of that. Let's get on to the business of the day- counting down BCS games by level of interest!
Now, please note that I am rating BCS games solely on level of interest and watchability. I am in no way making comment on the quality of teams or where I believe the teams shoud be ranked in the BCS poll.
5. BCS National Championship Game: Alabama vs LSU
Let's cut the crap here people. I don't care if it's the national championship. The last time this game was played, it was maybe the most hyped up game of all time. "Game of the century," it was billed. Final score? 9-6, in overtime. What is this, the world series? I don't care how many All-Americans are in this game, it was physically painful to watch the first time. Gene W. from ESPN wrote an excellent response where he announced, and i quote: "Only a classic is worthy of a Jan. 9 rematch in New Orleans. And this wasn't one of them." I couldn't agree more, yet that's what we're going to be dragged into watching. The unpronouncable Geney wrote that "classics don't have four interceptions, four missed field goals, 13 penalties, one fumble, one botched punt return and zero touchdowns." If someone described a game you might potentially watch in advance and told you it would have four picks, four missed field goals, and no touchdowns... does that sound like an exciting game to you?
I know defense wins championships. All I'm saying is that it doesn't win TV ratings too.
4. Sugar Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Michigan
Alright, so I pretty much despise both of these programs. But so what? This game is still kind of lame. Let's put aside the fact that neither of these teams really belong in this game because, though I am obsessed with complaining about how unfair it is that these two teams received at large bids, it doesn't have anything to do with the actual watchability of the game. Instead, let's focus on the notable run game plotline. We've got Denard "I'm-not-quite-as-good-as-Pat-White-despite-1000-comparisons-a-game" Robinson and his impressive dual threat capabilities against the light speed of David Wilson. This game will revolve around which one of those two players will make more plays. Both defenses really suck- especially Michigan's, regardless of what their inflated stats say- so expect lots of big plays from both sides. That may be the only redeeming quality to this game. Virginia Tech's special teams kind of suck too; even Tech fans won't argue with you on how bad their kicking game is, and when Tech fans admit something is bad, then you know it must be REALLY bad.
3. Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Wisconsin
I love this matchup because its sort of a sign of the times bowl game. We've got the classic, gigantic offensive line, power running game with Wisconsin vs the spread option speed of Oregon. I also love that both of these teams were unstoppable last year, yet both got beat in their respective BCS games. Don't forget about the qb dual between Darron Thomas and Russell Wilson- both are mobile and can beat you both ways. In a game contestng two teams with dominating runningbacks, I'm looking for whoever has the edge in the passing game. Watch the exposed matchup between Oregon's DB's, who are down their top cornerback, going against Wisconsin's wide receivers.
2. Orange Bowl- WVU vs Clemson
This is the most evenly matched bowl game of the entire postseason. And talk about shootout potential, oh man. The WVU defense has really stepped it up their last three games, but I'm not sure I'm buying the hype against the likes of South Florida. They'll get their first real test since Cincinatti in Clemson, an offense that looked highly entertaining in th ACC chamionship against Virginia Tech. Sammy Watkins is a star in the making, there's no denying that, but WVU has offensive playmakers literally all over the place. Whoever comes up with the last defensive stop probably wins in a wildly high scoring game.
1. Fiesta Bowl- Stanford vs Oklahoma State
Admit it. You thought I was going to rank the Orange Bow highest because of West Virginia.
In all seriousness, this quarterback dual is one for the ages. You've got the second coming of John Elway going up against Brandon Weeden, the quintessential Air Raid quarterback. Weeden and OSU's offense is the WVU offense, just 1000 times better. Their quarterback is older, smarter, and knows how to play within himself. Justin Blackmon is Stedman Bailey, just much more freakishly athletic. Oh yeah. And they have a running game. After that, it's literally the exact same offense, instituted by Dana Holgorsen at both schools. But just becase I think State wins doesn't mean Stanford doesn't have weapons either. Or maybe I should say weapon, singular. Because all they need is Luck (pun intended). Andrew Luck runs an old school tight end-centric offense and is supplemented by an incredibly average defense, and they look like the Green Bay Packers out there week in and week out. So if you never watch another college football game again in your life, watch this one. Because odds are, you will never see quarterback play like this in one college football game for the rest of your life.
Find out how you stack up against me. My picks: LSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, WVU, Oklahoma State
happy new year everyone!
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Sunday, December 11, 2011
2011 Mid Majors Primer
Now that football is done and over with, we can all make the surprisingly difficult mental transition to basketball season. Once you’ve reminded yourself to look for new poll results one day later and adjusted yourself to the concept of actually meaningful games on a Wednesday night, we can all get on with the season!
If there’s one thing you can count on every year in basketball, it’s the same five or six programs being light years ahead of the other 300 schools in Division 1 basketball. I don’t mean to anoint the Duke’s and Kentucky’s of the world as unbeatable, but I do think it’s pretty hard to argue that their coaching, recruiting, and the intrinsic value of these bluebloods give them a consistently substantial leg up over other programs. So which nontraditional mid-major programs will bust through this year to challenge the familiar big boys? It may only be early December, but I’ve got five teams for you to watch as we chug right on through nonconference play:
5. Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt); The Blue Raiders might not face too much talent in the Sun Belt or their own out of conference schedule, but it’s hard to deny a team that leads all of college basketball in field goal percentage and averages 80 points a game. They’ve nabbed notable wins at Loyola Marymount and UCLA; those wins will improve their potential seeding if they can beat out Denver for the Sun Belt title. A late January showdown at Vanderbilt will show how dangerous this team can really be down the stretch. (Game to watch for- @Vanderbilt, January 28)-
4. Kent State (MAC); Kent State has a veteran team that knows how to close games and play unselfishly, as those of you who went to the Tuesday night game found out. This team has the schedule and the talent to play itself into the conversation for an at large berth in the NCAA tournament this year, and that’s probably a good thing. With Toledo and Ohio sniffing around with talented teams as well, the Mid-American could be looking at a rare multi-bid season. (Game to watch for- @Utah State, December 22)
3. Cleveland State (Horizon); Who’s Butler? The Vikes are out to prove that the Horizon league’s recent success has not been a flash in the plan. All Cleveland state has done this year is upset a top ten squad on the road in their opener and follow that up with quality wins against Rhode Island and fellow list member Kent state. Like the MAAC, the Horizon League wants to prove it too is worthy of being a multi-bid conference this year. Cleveland State is the obvious favorite, but Milwaukee could be a threat to the Vikings in the conference tournament. Don’t discount Butler either, since we all seemed to last year, and look where that got them. (Game to watch for- Robert Morris, December 8)
2. Creighton (MVC)- Picked by ESPN in the preseason to be the mid-major team to beat this year, the undefeated Bluejays are actually ranked as high as 17th in some polls now. They have wins over two teams from AQ leagues, with a third impressive win last year at San Diego State. Playing in the Valley has been no easy feat the last fear years with teams like Wichita State and Missouri State really playing well, but this may be the year Creighton rises to the top. I doubt they run the table in conference play, but a strong Valley record coupled with an impressive nonconference resume puts the Bluejays in position to make a deep tournament run in March. (Game to watch for- @Wichita St, December 31)
1. Harvard (Ivy)- Many of you might remember the Cornell team from two years ago that maybe went a little underappreciated. The Big Red got the last laugh though, as they joked their way into the Sweet Sixteen. The no-scholarship group’s impressive run might have gone even farther if had they not run into John Wall’s Kentucky team. Why is that important? Well, this year’s Harvard team is as good as that Ivy team, maybe even better. Poll voters finally relented and voted the Crimson into the Top 25 after holding a ranked Florida State team to 41 points. They beat a tough-minded Central Florida team, and have a big Litmus test this week at Connecticut. We’re going to find out how good this team really is. (Game to watch for- @UConn, December 8)
That’s all well and good for those teams, but now I have to address the elephant in the room. Since we’re talking mid-majors, where does JMU fit into all of this? It’s hard to tell for sure while Devon Moore is out, but suffice it to say that the 2011-2012 hard court Dukes are still a work in progress. When they remember to play good defense, they seem to look like a team that is completely capable of making a run at the CAA title. When they get hot, they can absolutely shoot lights out from the perimeter. On the other hand, sloppy play and impatience can really undermine this team, as the Dukes went 6 of 23 from behind the arc and turned the ball over 19 times in a twenty point home loss to Kent State Tuesday night. It doesn’t matter. I still believe in this team’s staying power. If the Dukes can find better penetration in the lane and clean up the transition game (JMU had only 10 points off 23 Kent State turnovers), the Dukes should be a legitimate conference threat for the title this year.
If there’s one thing you can count on every year in basketball, it’s the same five or six programs being light years ahead of the other 300 schools in Division 1 basketball. I don’t mean to anoint the Duke’s and Kentucky’s of the world as unbeatable, but I do think it’s pretty hard to argue that their coaching, recruiting, and the intrinsic value of these bluebloods give them a consistently substantial leg up over other programs. So which nontraditional mid-major programs will bust through this year to challenge the familiar big boys? It may only be early December, but I’ve got five teams for you to watch as we chug right on through nonconference play:
5. Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt); The Blue Raiders might not face too much talent in the Sun Belt or their own out of conference schedule, but it’s hard to deny a team that leads all of college basketball in field goal percentage and averages 80 points a game. They’ve nabbed notable wins at Loyola Marymount and UCLA; those wins will improve their potential seeding if they can beat out Denver for the Sun Belt title. A late January showdown at Vanderbilt will show how dangerous this team can really be down the stretch. (Game to watch for- @Vanderbilt, January 28)-
4. Kent State (MAC); Kent State has a veteran team that knows how to close games and play unselfishly, as those of you who went to the Tuesday night game found out. This team has the schedule and the talent to play itself into the conversation for an at large berth in the NCAA tournament this year, and that’s probably a good thing. With Toledo and Ohio sniffing around with talented teams as well, the Mid-American could be looking at a rare multi-bid season. (Game to watch for- @Utah State, December 22)
3. Cleveland State (Horizon); Who’s Butler? The Vikes are out to prove that the Horizon league’s recent success has not been a flash in the plan. All Cleveland state has done this year is upset a top ten squad on the road in their opener and follow that up with quality wins against Rhode Island and fellow list member Kent state. Like the MAAC, the Horizon League wants to prove it too is worthy of being a multi-bid conference this year. Cleveland State is the obvious favorite, but Milwaukee could be a threat to the Vikings in the conference tournament. Don’t discount Butler either, since we all seemed to last year, and look where that got them. (Game to watch for- Robert Morris, December 8)
2. Creighton (MVC)- Picked by ESPN in the preseason to be the mid-major team to beat this year, the undefeated Bluejays are actually ranked as high as 17th in some polls now. They have wins over two teams from AQ leagues, with a third impressive win last year at San Diego State. Playing in the Valley has been no easy feat the last fear years with teams like Wichita State and Missouri State really playing well, but this may be the year Creighton rises to the top. I doubt they run the table in conference play, but a strong Valley record coupled with an impressive nonconference resume puts the Bluejays in position to make a deep tournament run in March. (Game to watch for- @Wichita St, December 31)
1. Harvard (Ivy)- Many of you might remember the Cornell team from two years ago that maybe went a little underappreciated. The Big Red got the last laugh though, as they joked their way into the Sweet Sixteen. The no-scholarship group’s impressive run might have gone even farther if had they not run into John Wall’s Kentucky team. Why is that important? Well, this year’s Harvard team is as good as that Ivy team, maybe even better. Poll voters finally relented and voted the Crimson into the Top 25 after holding a ranked Florida State team to 41 points. They beat a tough-minded Central Florida team, and have a big Litmus test this week at Connecticut. We’re going to find out how good this team really is. (Game to watch for- @UConn, December 8)
That’s all well and good for those teams, but now I have to address the elephant in the room. Since we’re talking mid-majors, where does JMU fit into all of this? It’s hard to tell for sure while Devon Moore is out, but suffice it to say that the 2011-2012 hard court Dukes are still a work in progress. When they remember to play good defense, they seem to look like a team that is completely capable of making a run at the CAA title. When they get hot, they can absolutely shoot lights out from the perimeter. On the other hand, sloppy play and impatience can really undermine this team, as the Dukes went 6 of 23 from behind the arc and turned the ball over 19 times in a twenty point home loss to Kent State Tuesday night. It doesn’t matter. I still believe in this team’s staying power. If the Dukes can find better penetration in the lane and clean up the transition game (JMU had only 10 points off 23 Kent State turnovers), the Dukes should be a legitimate conference threat for the title this year.
BCS or Bust?
There is no doubt in my mind that it’s the most wonderful time of the year, and it’s got nothing to do with the Xbox games I’ll be unwrapping in a couple of weeks.
The autumn confluence of baseball, football, basketball, and hockey is the sports equivalent of metaphysical poetry-- the end result is so epic that mental ecstasy is inevitable. Days like last Saturday are so full of sports that I have to preplan my sports-watching schedule in advance. Money can’t buy that type of happiness. But you know what doesn’t bring happiness? The single black spot on an otherwise blissful sports continuum- the BCS.
Time for a splash of cold water sports fans. JMU football just lost to North Dakota State. To put it bluntly, it sucks. There is no getting around that. But we had a nice campaign at the end of this year, and we even sent our seniors out with our first playoff berth since 2008. After the pang of defeat settles and we can actually look back on the year, there will be a neat since of accomplishment and finality. After an eight win season, we were eliminated by a solid, balanced football team.
Eliminated. It’s an ugly word for the loser, of course. It’s definitely not fun to be eliminated. However unpleasant it might be, everyone knows where a team stands when they’re eliminated. It’s a black and white mould, either you’re still in or you’re out. You know where that doesn’t exist? The BCS.
Rather than creating hard lines in the sand, the BCS system relies on the court of public opinion to create indistinguishable shades of grey. There are sometimes years like 2010 where no system is really necessary to determine who should play for the national championship. The millions of people who watched the BCS national championship last year all probably agreed Oregon and Auburn should be playing each other for the title. On the other hand, for every simple year, there’s a year of pure and utter unadulterated chaos. Take this year. There’s LSU, and then… who else? Even Houston is a one-loss team now. Alabama was lined up to go rematch the Tigers for the national championship, but what about Oklahoma State? What about Stanford? Boise State, even two-loss teams like Wisconsin and Oregon? How can anyone pick one opponent for LSU without making five or six teams feel like they got left out in the cold?
Maybe you’re that guy with all the answers though, and you think it falls together oh so neatly in ways we mere mortals don’t understand. Well I see your 2011 season, and raise you the entire 2007 season. Otherwise known to fans as “that really crazy year in college football,” the #1 and #2 teams in the country lost in the same weekend on three separate weekends. Two of those were the last two consecutive weeks of the regular season, culminating in a Saturday night game where Pittsburgh upset #2 WVU, knocked the Mountaineers out of the national title game, and knocked eventual champion LSU back into the title game. That season was such a mess, a playoff could have very easily resulted in any team winning. Think VCU all over again, you know, if VCU actually had a football team.
The other problem I have with the BCS format is, as mentioned before, it sometimes relies way too much on human polls. Over 65% of the BCS is determined by what voters in the Harris Poll and USA Today Poll think of teams. Virginia Tech was ranked as high as #3 in polls this year. After watching Clemson play them twice, is this the third best team in the country? But it’s not just the Virginia Tech’s of the world that cause ranking problems. Non-automatic qualifying teams like Houston and Boise State are clearly good teams on their own level, but how much of that talent transfers over when playing an SEC team? No one really has an answer for that. The only way to know for sure is to stick them in a bracket and let them have at it.
I’m not going to pretend a playoff has all the answers. Frankly, I like the fact that the current bowl system creates niches for teams that would probably never get a playoff bid. Just as there’s a Orange Bowl bid waiting for the ACC champion, there’s always a Belk Bowl bid for mid-level east coast teams. I’m not a big believer in the everyone-should-get-a-trophy, let’s-award-mediocrity cause, but at the same time, this format allows every team to compete for some sort of post season trip, not just the best of the best. And you know what? Don’t even get me started on the injury and academic risks to the pro prospects with an extended, multiple game playoff. This newspaper column can’t even begin to offer enough space for that conversation.
No system fixes all the problems or answers all the questions. But when everyone from Congress to the weird guy in the corner of your 8:00AM class has been screaming about how awful the BCS is for months, maybe it’s time we as a society accept the fact that BCS might not stand for the best case scenario. Maybe it’s time we change this thing.
***writer's note***
The above was written for the purposes of print journalism for Monday, December 5. Because of my deadline, I had to write the article and turn it in before the actual BCS bowl schedule was announced and thus could not include my personal reaction to the BCS selections. The selection of Michigan and Virginia Tech as at large teams confirms many of the things said about the BCS. Is the purpose of the college football postseason to reward the best teams, or to make money? The BCS often walks this line like a very drunk man at a sobriety checkpoint. Sometimes they even poll vault this line all together, like when a Sugar Bowl affiliate, when asked why Virginia Tech was chosen over other teams, chose to cite Virginia Tech's fan base as reasoning why they were selected. I give credit to the Virginia Tech fans for being very dedicated to their team- one of the very, very few things wvu and vt fans have in common, and something I can't say about the fans of archrival pitt- but when the first reason named is 1. directly related to the making of money and 2. completely unrelated to on the field play.. you have to wonder what's going on these guys' minds when they choose the teams to play in their bowl games.
Actually, scratch that. You don't have to wonder. They pretty much just spelled it out for us.
The autumn confluence of baseball, football, basketball, and hockey is the sports equivalent of metaphysical poetry-- the end result is so epic that mental ecstasy is inevitable. Days like last Saturday are so full of sports that I have to preplan my sports-watching schedule in advance. Money can’t buy that type of happiness. But you know what doesn’t bring happiness? The single black spot on an otherwise blissful sports continuum- the BCS.
Time for a splash of cold water sports fans. JMU football just lost to North Dakota State. To put it bluntly, it sucks. There is no getting around that. But we had a nice campaign at the end of this year, and we even sent our seniors out with our first playoff berth since 2008. After the pang of defeat settles and we can actually look back on the year, there will be a neat since of accomplishment and finality. After an eight win season, we were eliminated by a solid, balanced football team.
Eliminated. It’s an ugly word for the loser, of course. It’s definitely not fun to be eliminated. However unpleasant it might be, everyone knows where a team stands when they’re eliminated. It’s a black and white mould, either you’re still in or you’re out. You know where that doesn’t exist? The BCS.
Rather than creating hard lines in the sand, the BCS system relies on the court of public opinion to create indistinguishable shades of grey. There are sometimes years like 2010 where no system is really necessary to determine who should play for the national championship. The millions of people who watched the BCS national championship last year all probably agreed Oregon and Auburn should be playing each other for the title. On the other hand, for every simple year, there’s a year of pure and utter unadulterated chaos. Take this year. There’s LSU, and then… who else? Even Houston is a one-loss team now. Alabama was lined up to go rematch the Tigers for the national championship, but what about Oklahoma State? What about Stanford? Boise State, even two-loss teams like Wisconsin and Oregon? How can anyone pick one opponent for LSU without making five or six teams feel like they got left out in the cold?
Maybe you’re that guy with all the answers though, and you think it falls together oh so neatly in ways we mere mortals don’t understand. Well I see your 2011 season, and raise you the entire 2007 season. Otherwise known to fans as “that really crazy year in college football,” the #1 and #2 teams in the country lost in the same weekend on three separate weekends. Two of those were the last two consecutive weeks of the regular season, culminating in a Saturday night game where Pittsburgh upset #2 WVU, knocked the Mountaineers out of the national title game, and knocked eventual champion LSU back into the title game. That season was such a mess, a playoff could have very easily resulted in any team winning. Think VCU all over again, you know, if VCU actually had a football team.
The other problem I have with the BCS format is, as mentioned before, it sometimes relies way too much on human polls. Over 65% of the BCS is determined by what voters in the Harris Poll and USA Today Poll think of teams. Virginia Tech was ranked as high as #3 in polls this year. After watching Clemson play them twice, is this the third best team in the country? But it’s not just the Virginia Tech’s of the world that cause ranking problems. Non-automatic qualifying teams like Houston and Boise State are clearly good teams on their own level, but how much of that talent transfers over when playing an SEC team? No one really has an answer for that. The only way to know for sure is to stick them in a bracket and let them have at it.
I’m not going to pretend a playoff has all the answers. Frankly, I like the fact that the current bowl system creates niches for teams that would probably never get a playoff bid. Just as there’s a Orange Bowl bid waiting for the ACC champion, there’s always a Belk Bowl bid for mid-level east coast teams. I’m not a big believer in the everyone-should-get-a-trophy, let’s-award-mediocrity cause, but at the same time, this format allows every team to compete for some sort of post season trip, not just the best of the best. And you know what? Don’t even get me started on the injury and academic risks to the pro prospects with an extended, multiple game playoff. This newspaper column can’t even begin to offer enough space for that conversation.
No system fixes all the problems or answers all the questions. But when everyone from Congress to the weird guy in the corner of your 8:00AM class has been screaming about how awful the BCS is for months, maybe it’s time we as a society accept the fact that BCS might not stand for the best case scenario. Maybe it’s time we change this thing.
***writer's note***
The above was written for the purposes of print journalism for Monday, December 5. Because of my deadline, I had to write the article and turn it in before the actual BCS bowl schedule was announced and thus could not include my personal reaction to the BCS selections. The selection of Michigan and Virginia Tech as at large teams confirms many of the things said about the BCS. Is the purpose of the college football postseason to reward the best teams, or to make money? The BCS often walks this line like a very drunk man at a sobriety checkpoint. Sometimes they even poll vault this line all together, like when a Sugar Bowl affiliate, when asked why Virginia Tech was chosen over other teams, chose to cite Virginia Tech's fan base as reasoning why they were selected. I give credit to the Virginia Tech fans for being very dedicated to their team- one of the very, very few things wvu and vt fans have in common, and something I can't say about the fans of archrival pitt- but when the first reason named is 1. directly related to the making of money and 2. completely unrelated to on the field play.. you have to wonder what's going on these guys' minds when they choose the teams to play in their bowl games.
Actually, scratch that. You don't have to wonder. They pretty much just spelled it out for us.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Pregame: Championship Week, Pt 2
Jumping right into Big 12 Play...
Big 12:
Kansas State can technically still snag a piece of the pie with an OkSt loss, but let's be honest. As far as the BCS is concerned, this is a two-pony show. That's probably a good thing too, because as good of a story as Bill Snyder's camp is this year, I'm not sure they're gonna hold up against the big boys. They barely beat a top 30 Texas team, and allowed 50 points to both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
Anyway, the winner of Bedlam this weekend goes to a BCS bowl. There's an outside chance that both teams go, assuming the Sooners win. Otherwise, there's not a whole lot of discussion required here. Both teams have great skill players on offense, and he quarterback dual will be quite a treat. But I like Weeden and JB to defend home turf. Even in the preseason, I wasn't buying into Oklahoma as the best team in the Big 12. I picked OSU to win the conference outright, and I'm sticking by that preseason pick.
Prediction: Oklahoma makes it interesting, but the pokes go to a BCS game. The real question is, how impressively do they have to win to jump Alabama in the polls? Oklahoma State 41, Oklahoma 31
Pac-12:
Tonight is the Pac-12 championship game between fringe national title contender Oregon and 6-6 UCLA. The Bruins sit in this title game not really out of personal merit, but because they are the least awfullest team in the Pac-12 south that is actually elligible to play in the title game. That's right- they're so bad that I actually had to invent the word awfullest just to fully describe the situation. It's that bad.
Prediction: Reggie Bush apologizes for tonight's inevitable blowout. Oregon 55, UCLA 20
SEC:
So, here we are. The elephant in the room. Undefeated LSU takes on Boise State's most recent overrated victim, Georgia. I've been on ESPN all week listening to how good Georgia has been playing recently, and how they're really gonna hang with LSU. The Tigers will prevail of course, because no one wants to upset the established order, but at least it will be a good game...
Prediction: Well I'm sorry, but that's a load of crap. Georgia is playing well? Because they hung 62 on New Mexico State? Color me unimpressed. Barely scraping out wins against the likes of Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, and a very injured Tennessee team does not mean you've caught fire. LSU is gonna do to Mark Reicht's team what Cam Newton did to South Carolina in last year's SEC title game. Remember that one? It wasn't pretty. LSU 42, Georgia 13.
Still... let's play the imagination game for a second. What happens if Georgia wins? There's a brain teaser for you. In my mind, LSU would remain the #1 team (after all, they'd just be another one loss team with a better resume than everyone else), though in the fickle minds of poll voters, I'm not so sure they wouldn't lose a step to a couple of other top teams. Georgia suddenly has to go to a BCS game, but you can't hold LSU back from an at large bid after dominating the whole regular season. Does Alabama get left out in the cold? It's pretty much a done deal that Houston is going to go to the BCS, but what do you do about Boise State, who has now beaten the SEC champion?
Scenarios abound. I look forward to delving into them all with you later this weekend.
Big 12:
Kansas State can technically still snag a piece of the pie with an OkSt loss, but let's be honest. As far as the BCS is concerned, this is a two-pony show. That's probably a good thing too, because as good of a story as Bill Snyder's camp is this year, I'm not sure they're gonna hold up against the big boys. They barely beat a top 30 Texas team, and allowed 50 points to both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
Anyway, the winner of Bedlam this weekend goes to a BCS bowl. There's an outside chance that both teams go, assuming the Sooners win. Otherwise, there's not a whole lot of discussion required here. Both teams have great skill players on offense, and he quarterback dual will be quite a treat. But I like Weeden and JB to defend home turf. Even in the preseason, I wasn't buying into Oklahoma as the best team in the Big 12. I picked OSU to win the conference outright, and I'm sticking by that preseason pick.
Prediction: Oklahoma makes it interesting, but the pokes go to a BCS game. The real question is, how impressively do they have to win to jump Alabama in the polls? Oklahoma State 41, Oklahoma 31
Pac-12:
Tonight is the Pac-12 championship game between fringe national title contender Oregon and 6-6 UCLA. The Bruins sit in this title game not really out of personal merit, but because they are the least awfullest team in the Pac-12 south that is actually elligible to play in the title game. That's right- they're so bad that I actually had to invent the word awfullest just to fully describe the situation. It's that bad.
Prediction: Reggie Bush apologizes for tonight's inevitable blowout. Oregon 55, UCLA 20
SEC:
So, here we are. The elephant in the room. Undefeated LSU takes on Boise State's most recent overrated victim, Georgia. I've been on ESPN all week listening to how good Georgia has been playing recently, and how they're really gonna hang with LSU. The Tigers will prevail of course, because no one wants to upset the established order, but at least it will be a good game...
Prediction: Well I'm sorry, but that's a load of crap. Georgia is playing well? Because they hung 62 on New Mexico State? Color me unimpressed. Barely scraping out wins against the likes of Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, and a very injured Tennessee team does not mean you've caught fire. LSU is gonna do to Mark Reicht's team what Cam Newton did to South Carolina in last year's SEC title game. Remember that one? It wasn't pretty. LSU 42, Georgia 13.
Still... let's play the imagination game for a second. What happens if Georgia wins? There's a brain teaser for you. In my mind, LSU would remain the #1 team (after all, they'd just be another one loss team with a better resume than everyone else), though in the fickle minds of poll voters, I'm not so sure they wouldn't lose a step to a couple of other top teams. Georgia suddenly has to go to a BCS game, but you can't hold LSU back from an at large bid after dominating the whole regular season. Does Alabama get left out in the cold? It's pretty much a done deal that Houston is going to go to the BCS, but what do you do about Boise State, who has now beaten the SEC champion?
Scenarios abound. I look forward to delving into them all with you later this weekend.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Pregame: Championship Week, Pt 1
Hey all and welcome to the weekend Pregame, championship week edition. I'll be giving you my thoughts on each conference's championship week matchups, and we'll even predict some winners. As always, feel free to tell me how incredibly amazing/stupid I am.
ACC:
Virginia Tech will play Clemson in Charlotte, North Carolina for the right to represent the ACC in a BCS game. Last year, the representative Hokies got bold italicized underlined CREAMED by at large Andrew Luck and company, and the conference is probably looking for a measure of redemption.
For these teams, it's really been a story of going in opposite directions. Clemson opened pretty hot, including this original romp of Virginia Tech as a part of their 8-0 start. But in the last four games, Clemson has gone 1-3 (including a rather embarassing rout at the hands of North Carolina State). Quarterback Tajh Boyd has thrown four touchdowns compared to seven interceptions, and his offensive line has allowed 11 sacks. Not to great.
Meanwhile, Virginia Tech... well, at least they haven't lost since the aforementioned Clemson game. Until last week's game in Charlottesville, I thought Tech looked incredibly unimpressive while running through their mindnumbingly easy schedule. Still, they turned it on against UVA last week that somehow appears to be the third best team in the ACC. It's hard to say for sure with a one-game sample size against your in-state rival, but the Hokies appear to be peaking at the right time.
Well, who cares. In a championship game, I'm not sure that really matters after the first quarter. Clemson is too good of a team AND matches up too well with Virginia Tech to get blown out by a team who is not outright athletically superior. Tajh Boyd needs to get his act together, and the offense as a hole needs to play better. If that happens, it'll be a good game. If not, then it'll be another early Christmas in Blacksburg.
Prediction: The media might be lined up to coddle Logan Thomas day in and day out, but I'm not. This kid is not the real deal, and lacks the experience to lead his team down the stretch. Virginia Tech will jump out to an early lead, but I expect Clemson to wake up some time late in the second quarter. The second half will be all defense, but I expect Clemson to score just enough points to eek out a small victory. Clemson 19, Virginia Tech 17
Big East:
If you haven't been following this conference race (and let's be honest, most of you probably haven't), it's an absolute mess. It's one of the only times I've ever seen where no one actually controls their own destiny. Here are the contenders and what's going on with them:
Louisville- Off this week, schedule is already completed with a conference record of 5-2. They own a h2h win over West Virginia, but lost at Cincinatti.
Cincinatti- Bearcats were undefeated in conference play and in the driver seat until their bigtime quarterback Zach Collaros was injured. Following that, Cincinatti lost to West Virginia and Rutgers, and now sit at 4-2. A win on Saturday at home against cellar dweller UConn keeps them in contention for a share of the Big East title and a possible BCS berth.
West Virginia- West Virginia easily boasts the most explosive offense and probably the most athletic team, but as always, they've got a couple losses that kind of just make you go... huh? WVU lost to Syracuse early on, and lost to Louisville at home in the beginning of November. They play tonight (Thursday night) against South Florida, and are currently 4-2.
SO. West Virginia beat Cincinatti, who beat Louisville, who beat West Virginia. Except Louisville is already done, and the other two aren't.
Louisville needs Cincinatti to lose on Saturday. Then they clinch the BCS berth with their head to head win over WVU.
Cincinatti needs to win on Saturday, but they also need a loss from WVU tonight. Then they would clench the BCS berth because of their head to head win over Louisville.
West Virginia needs to win Thursday night, and they need Cincinatti to win Saturday too. That keeps the 3-way tie with each team at 5-2. Each team's h2h record against the other two teams would be 1-1, which means you go to the next tiebreaker: BCS ranking. Right now, WVU is the only team ranked in the top 25 of the BCS rankings, and a Cincinatti win at home over UConn would not likely push them over WVU.
West Virginia certainly needs the most things, but...
Prediction: You say Rube Goldberg, I say common sense. Call me biased, but all those things happening is really not that unrealistic. South Florida has played WVU tough and even forced a little bit of a rivalry between the two schools, but the Bulls are pretty awful this year and have only managed one conference win. They haven't even qualified for bowl eligibility yet. Combine that with the liklihood of their backup quarterback Bobby Eveld starting with the poor quality of the USF secondary and I smell a rout. WVU 45, USF 10. Meanwhile, Cincinatti backup Munchie Legeaux is starting to figure things out, and though UConn has a surprisingly intimidating front 7, I don't think they will contain him or the outstanding runningback the Bearcats feature. They're gonna get Pead on (love saying that). Cincinatti 24, Connecticut 13
WVU finishes ranked 21st. Cincinatti remains unranked.
Big 10
This might be the best game all weekend. The Badgers get another shot to beat Michigan State after the Spartans' miraculous hail mary won the regular season meeting. MSU will have a couple defensive players back that weren't available in the regular season game, including one bigtime pass rusher, which is important to note because of the escapability of Russell Wilson. I love State's receiver Keshawn Martin too. He's a big time playmaker that steps up in big game situations, and I think he's got great reporte with Kirk Cousins too.
All of that pales in comparison, though, to Montee Ball. Ball has 1622 yards on the season and averages 6.5 yards a carry. He's got 34 TOUCHDOWNS this season. 34. Those numbers are pretty rediculous for a quarterback, but for a runningback? Absolutely rediculous. Even by his standards, he's been going off lately. If Montee Ball continues to play in his groove, I can't possibly see how Michigan State can do anything to stop him.
Prediction: Obviously I like Montee Ball and and Wisconsin, per mini-rant above. Michigan State's defense is underrated, but somehow so is Montee Ball. Despite the renewed blood on the defensive line, Wisconsin will dominate the line of scrimmage, pound the ball left and right, and go to their second straight BCS game to set up wonderful runningback and mobile quarterback duals. Wisconsin 35, Michigan State 24.
Tomorrow, I cover the remaining three conferences. Saturday/Sunday I'll be covering at large bids.
ACC:
Virginia Tech will play Clemson in Charlotte, North Carolina for the right to represent the ACC in a BCS game. Last year, the representative Hokies got bold italicized underlined CREAMED by at large Andrew Luck and company, and the conference is probably looking for a measure of redemption.
For these teams, it's really been a story of going in opposite directions. Clemson opened pretty hot, including this original romp of Virginia Tech as a part of their 8-0 start. But in the last four games, Clemson has gone 1-3 (including a rather embarassing rout at the hands of North Carolina State). Quarterback Tajh Boyd has thrown four touchdowns compared to seven interceptions, and his offensive line has allowed 11 sacks. Not to great.
Meanwhile, Virginia Tech... well, at least they haven't lost since the aforementioned Clemson game. Until last week's game in Charlottesville, I thought Tech looked incredibly unimpressive while running through their mindnumbingly easy schedule. Still, they turned it on against UVA last week that somehow appears to be the third best team in the ACC. It's hard to say for sure with a one-game sample size against your in-state rival, but the Hokies appear to be peaking at the right time.
Well, who cares. In a championship game, I'm not sure that really matters after the first quarter. Clemson is too good of a team AND matches up too well with Virginia Tech to get blown out by a team who is not outright athletically superior. Tajh Boyd needs to get his act together, and the offense as a hole needs to play better. If that happens, it'll be a good game. If not, then it'll be another early Christmas in Blacksburg.
Prediction: The media might be lined up to coddle Logan Thomas day in and day out, but I'm not. This kid is not the real deal, and lacks the experience to lead his team down the stretch. Virginia Tech will jump out to an early lead, but I expect Clemson to wake up some time late in the second quarter. The second half will be all defense, but I expect Clemson to score just enough points to eek out a small victory. Clemson 19, Virginia Tech 17
Big East:
If you haven't been following this conference race (and let's be honest, most of you probably haven't), it's an absolute mess. It's one of the only times I've ever seen where no one actually controls their own destiny. Here are the contenders and what's going on with them:
Louisville- Off this week, schedule is already completed with a conference record of 5-2. They own a h2h win over West Virginia, but lost at Cincinatti.
Cincinatti- Bearcats were undefeated in conference play and in the driver seat until their bigtime quarterback Zach Collaros was injured. Following that, Cincinatti lost to West Virginia and Rutgers, and now sit at 4-2. A win on Saturday at home against cellar dweller UConn keeps them in contention for a share of the Big East title and a possible BCS berth.
West Virginia- West Virginia easily boasts the most explosive offense and probably the most athletic team, but as always, they've got a couple losses that kind of just make you go... huh? WVU lost to Syracuse early on, and lost to Louisville at home in the beginning of November. They play tonight (Thursday night) against South Florida, and are currently 4-2.
SO. West Virginia beat Cincinatti, who beat Louisville, who beat West Virginia. Except Louisville is already done, and the other two aren't.
Louisville needs Cincinatti to lose on Saturday. Then they clinch the BCS berth with their head to head win over WVU.
Cincinatti needs to win on Saturday, but they also need a loss from WVU tonight. Then they would clench the BCS berth because of their head to head win over Louisville.
West Virginia needs to win Thursday night, and they need Cincinatti to win Saturday too. That keeps the 3-way tie with each team at 5-2. Each team's h2h record against the other two teams would be 1-1, which means you go to the next tiebreaker: BCS ranking. Right now, WVU is the only team ranked in the top 25 of the BCS rankings, and a Cincinatti win at home over UConn would not likely push them over WVU.
West Virginia certainly needs the most things, but...
Prediction: You say Rube Goldberg, I say common sense. Call me biased, but all those things happening is really not that unrealistic. South Florida has played WVU tough and even forced a little bit of a rivalry between the two schools, but the Bulls are pretty awful this year and have only managed one conference win. They haven't even qualified for bowl eligibility yet. Combine that with the liklihood of their backup quarterback Bobby Eveld starting with the poor quality of the USF secondary and I smell a rout. WVU 45, USF 10. Meanwhile, Cincinatti backup Munchie Legeaux is starting to figure things out, and though UConn has a surprisingly intimidating front 7, I don't think they will contain him or the outstanding runningback the Bearcats feature. They're gonna get Pead on (love saying that). Cincinatti 24, Connecticut 13
WVU finishes ranked 21st. Cincinatti remains unranked.
Big 10
This might be the best game all weekend. The Badgers get another shot to beat Michigan State after the Spartans' miraculous hail mary won the regular season meeting. MSU will have a couple defensive players back that weren't available in the regular season game, including one bigtime pass rusher, which is important to note because of the escapability of Russell Wilson. I love State's receiver Keshawn Martin too. He's a big time playmaker that steps up in big game situations, and I think he's got great reporte with Kirk Cousins too.
All of that pales in comparison, though, to Montee Ball. Ball has 1622 yards on the season and averages 6.5 yards a carry. He's got 34 TOUCHDOWNS this season. 34. Those numbers are pretty rediculous for a quarterback, but for a runningback? Absolutely rediculous. Even by his standards, he's been going off lately. If Montee Ball continues to play in his groove, I can't possibly see how Michigan State can do anything to stop him.
Prediction: Obviously I like Montee Ball and and Wisconsin, per mini-rant above. Michigan State's defense is underrated, but somehow so is Montee Ball. Despite the renewed blood on the defensive line, Wisconsin will dominate the line of scrimmage, pound the ball left and right, and go to their second straight BCS game to set up wonderful runningback and mobile quarterback duals. Wisconsin 35, Michigan State 24.
Tomorrow, I cover the remaining three conferences. Saturday/Sunday I'll be covering at large bids.
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