Yes, the game was disappointing- we were so close to making it a game. Despite all the turnovers and 3rd down conversions West Virginia allowed, they were still right in the game up to that kickoff return. But props to LSU for winning in a very tough environment. If you don't believe that this 4-0 team should be #1 in the country after the four games that they've played, you don't deserve to call yourself a college football fan. Wins on the road against Mississippi State and WVU? Another win at a semi-neutral site over Oregon? Yeah, I'm pretty sure they deserve it. Oklahoma's best win is a team that is at .500 through four weeks and tied for last place in the ACC right now. Why not LSU?
But enough about that, I want to shift gears and focus on another team of mine that did win this weekend. No, I'm not talking about the Orioles ending Verlander's winning streak of insanity. I'm talking about the James Madison Dukes.
Last year, as JMU's football team fell into disarray, there wasn't really any hope for anything exciting. The team had used up all of its excitement in a single game- the 21-16 Blacksburg win over Virginia Tech. I don't think any JMU student would trade that day away for anything. Ever. But it needs to be said that the Dukes were incredibly mediocre and undeserving of a lot of praise after the 2-0 start to the year. They managed to upset then-top-ranked William and Mary at home in a complete where-did-come-from moment, but they didn't do a whole lot other than that after September 11, 2010.
Not the case this year. After JMU was handled by North Carolina, the Dukes have realed off three straight impressive victories: Central Connecticut State (a playoff team whether you realize it or not, people), at Liberty (ranked in the fringes of the FCS top 25), and at #5 William and Mary.
The Dukes are for real this year, folks. They aren't messing around.
That win over 20th ranked Liberty? It broke their 9-game home winning streak and most likely sent grown men crying to their beds prior to their 9:00 PM university-imposed bedtime. That W&M win? A signature win against a team hungry for some revenge. JMU not only racked up 271 yards of rushing offense (and Dae'Quan Scott had over 100 yards by himself), but they limited William and mary to 37 yards rushing. They barely averaged 1 ypc. You can't ask for much more than that out of your defense.
JMU sits around #12 in post polls right now, but as the FCS polls start to roll out today and tomorrow, expect for JMU to hop into the top 10. What you shouldn't expect, however, is for the road to get any easier. Archrival Richmond comes to town this weekend in an FCS top 10 showdown. If JMU wins, it will put us at 2-0 in the CAA. At that point, we would be in contention not just for the CAA title- we would be a serious contender for the national championship.
First thing is first. JMU cannot afford to sleep on Richmond, a team that I still have yet to see the Dukes beat as a student. We need this game not only for our CAA resume, but for our own momentum- the Homecoming game against Richmond (I'm assuming it's homecoming, since Richmond is always Homecoming) marks the first game of a crucial three-weekend homestand where we play top 10 Richmond, CAA foe Maine, and the always-dangerous Villanova. If we were to go 2-1 in that stretch, we would be a very good team. But if we could somehow make it 3-0, we would be a great team.
I think the 2009 and 2010 JMU teams have created a certain cautiousness among the students that were here and witnessed their shortcomings. We don't want to get our hopes up- those teams, after all, had such great potential too- because we've seen what happens when we do.
Throw caution to the wind people. JMU is a legitimate national title contender this year. Get out to games and support your team. When Richmond comes to Harrisonburg, Bridgeforth should be absolutely packed. We need to make that game as loud as possible. A quiet top 10 showdown is not an option.
LSU is a national title contender this year in FBS with a dominant defense, a power running game, and an opportunistic offense. If they can do it, why can't the Dukes of JMU?
This weekend: 16/19
This season: 38/42
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Thoughts from Game Day
In case you haven't heard me talking about it nonstop on facebook/twitter/real life for the last God knows how many days, I'm in Morgantown for college game day this week. Emotions are running high after a loss that looked a loss that looked a lot more lopsided than the game really was. Here are my thoughts: the good, the bad, and the ugly of both teams.
West Virginia:
Good: This passing offense of Holgorsen's is so legit, and it was an absolute treat to see it in person (meant literally and metaphorcally- scalper asking prices were around $300 as I was tailgatng). LSU's defense was highly touted and with good reason, but that didn't stop WVU from passing to the tune of FIVE HUNDRED YARDS? Absolutely absurd. It makes them a force to be reckoned with in just about any game.
Bad: The Mountaineers did display a surprisingly stout defense against a much larger front, but they showed lapses of fundamental tackling skills in critical situatioins. Giving up 9 yard rushes because of missed tackles in the backfield on your own 40, dropping balls that are easy catches... you cant do that and win football games, and WVU had one or two too many plays like this.
Ugly: Once again, West Virginia shows the absolute worst aspect of the team, year in and year out, is special teams kickoff coverage. West Virginia had cut the lead to 6 measely points and was threatening an absolutely epic comeback with all the momentum in the world focused on Morgantown's home team. Lack of quality kickoff coverage allowed a 99 yard kickoff touchdown, and the resulting loss of momentum pretty much doomed the rest of the game.
LSU:
Good: Maybe Lee is a little underrated. Regardless, LSU's offense was firing pretty well tonight. If the defense lives up to its hype and the offense plays like this, I can't see anyone beating them.
Bad: LSU's offense teamed really, really one dimensional. It's an interesting dichotomy, listing offensive prowess and offensive inadequecies as both a strength and a weakness. But as game film piles up against LSU, the offense is going to start to look more and more one-dimensional and focused on a power running game. I can't count how many times I saw a power toss to the right of the offensive line. Lee was certainly capable of doing enough to move the chains and advance the ball down the field, but I think the lack of creative play calling on LSU's offense has the potential to hurt them.
Ugly: It's gotta be said. LSU made the New York Giants look good in this game by (seemingly) faking injuries an inordinant amount of times. LSU "injuries" numbered in the double digits, and it got to the point that fans- myself included- started booing every time an injured player went down. The defense looked winded a lot, and injuries started occurring magically every time the WVU offense started clicking, or the tempo was getting pushed faster. At one point, I saw a referee told Les Miles that the next LSU injury would cost the Tigers a time out. Injuries stopped happening. I won't out and out call them dirty cheaters, and I'm not making excuses for WVU and the unacceptable amount of turnovers they were forced into. That being said, use your brain and draw your own conclusions.
In addition to all that, I think WVU fans deserve some serious credit. Milan Puskar stadium is not the biggest stadium in college football, but the dedication of this fan base puts it in strong contention for one of the loudest. For the most part, though, mountaineer fans kept it classy, and I think they should be acknowledged for the clean, hard-nosed competitiveness that was provided. I actually saw an LSU guy high fiving/ holding hands with a WVU guy while they were peeing into an open style latrine, which was as inspiring as it was slightly gay. Regardless, great atmosphere. My ears hurt, my heart hurts more, but what an incredible night.
West Virginia:
Good: This passing offense of Holgorsen's is so legit, and it was an absolute treat to see it in person (meant literally and metaphorcally- scalper asking prices were around $300 as I was tailgatng). LSU's defense was highly touted and with good reason, but that didn't stop WVU from passing to the tune of FIVE HUNDRED YARDS? Absolutely absurd. It makes them a force to be reckoned with in just about any game.
Bad: The Mountaineers did display a surprisingly stout defense against a much larger front, but they showed lapses of fundamental tackling skills in critical situatioins. Giving up 9 yard rushes because of missed tackles in the backfield on your own 40, dropping balls that are easy catches... you cant do that and win football games, and WVU had one or two too many plays like this.
Ugly: Once again, West Virginia shows the absolute worst aspect of the team, year in and year out, is special teams kickoff coverage. West Virginia had cut the lead to 6 measely points and was threatening an absolutely epic comeback with all the momentum in the world focused on Morgantown's home team. Lack of quality kickoff coverage allowed a 99 yard kickoff touchdown, and the resulting loss of momentum pretty much doomed the rest of the game.
LSU:
Good: Maybe Lee is a little underrated. Regardless, LSU's offense was firing pretty well tonight. If the defense lives up to its hype and the offense plays like this, I can't see anyone beating them.
Bad: LSU's offense teamed really, really one dimensional. It's an interesting dichotomy, listing offensive prowess and offensive inadequecies as both a strength and a weakness. But as game film piles up against LSU, the offense is going to start to look more and more one-dimensional and focused on a power running game. I can't count how many times I saw a power toss to the right of the offensive line. Lee was certainly capable of doing enough to move the chains and advance the ball down the field, but I think the lack of creative play calling on LSU's offense has the potential to hurt them.
Ugly: It's gotta be said. LSU made the New York Giants look good in this game by (seemingly) faking injuries an inordinant amount of times. LSU "injuries" numbered in the double digits, and it got to the point that fans- myself included- started booing every time an injured player went down. The defense looked winded a lot, and injuries started occurring magically every time the WVU offense started clicking, or the tempo was getting pushed faster. At one point, I saw a referee told Les Miles that the next LSU injury would cost the Tigers a time out. Injuries stopped happening. I won't out and out call them dirty cheaters, and I'm not making excuses for WVU and the unacceptable amount of turnovers they were forced into. That being said, use your brain and draw your own conclusions.
In addition to all that, I think WVU fans deserve some serious credit. Milan Puskar stadium is not the biggest stadium in college football, but the dedication of this fan base puts it in strong contention for one of the loudest. For the most part, though, mountaineer fans kept it classy, and I think they should be acknowledged for the clean, hard-nosed competitiveness that was provided. I actually saw an LSU guy high fiving/ holding hands with a WVU guy while they were peeing into an open style latrine, which was as inspiring as it was slightly gay. Regardless, great atmosphere. My ears hurt, my heart hurts more, but what an incredible night.
Friday, September 23, 2011
The Pregame For GameDay
I'm going to College Gameday this weekend. I am SO EXCITED. Let's look at some matchups.
Interesting Matchups
Vanderbilt at South Carolina: Vandy's defense has been surprisingly good of late, creating a lot of points off of turnovers. Compare that to a very high octane offense under Steve Spurrier's South Carolina team and we've got ourselves a ball game. I think the Commies might have their hands full here, but it's at least an interesting matchup to watch.
Arkansas at Alabama- STOP SAYING THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN GAMEDAY. Do you really think Alabama won't ever have game this year? Because you're out of your mind if you do. ESPN has to spread the love outside of the SEC a little bit, and week 4 in Morgantown is the only place they're going to be able to make a legitimate case for a Big East gameday.
Anyway, the matchup is pretty simple. Alabama has an absolutely dominant defense and a potent rush attack. Arkansas probably has the best receivers in the country along with a very good defensive front. We'll see which SEC team-that-starts-with-an-A wins. (probably the one with the "LABAMA" after the A)
LSU at West Virginia- If it's good enough for CGD, it's good enough for me. I've heard lots of descriptions of this game, everything from the more relevant mountaineer offense vs tiger defense all the way down to battle of the two best tailgating schools. I've also heard battle of the two most hillbillly states. To those people, on behalf of both states: Screw you.
Recommended Viewing Schedule:
12- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, ABC
3:30- Trio of great games here: personally, I'd watch Ok.St @ Texas A&M on ESPN2. Do what you gotta do.
7-8 First hour of Florida @ Kentucky, ESPN
8- Cmon, you gotta watch LSU @ WVU.
11:30- second half of USC @ Arizona State. Very underrated game here, if you're still in front of a TV. I won't be!
Predictions: I bet you'll never guess who I pick in the LSU-WVU game...
Mizzou @ Oklahoma
LSU @ West Virginia
Arkansas @ Alabama
Tulsa @ Boise St
South Dakota @ Wisconsin
Ok St @ Texas A&M
Nebraska @ Wyoming
Oregon @ Arizona
Florida St @ Clemson
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina
Virginia Tech @ Marshall
Florida @ Kentucky
Rice @ Baylor
UTEP @ USF
Portland St @ TCU
San Diego St @ Michigan
USC @ Arizona St
Western Michigan @ Illinois
UNC @ Georgia Tech
Interesting Matchups
Vanderbilt at South Carolina: Vandy's defense has been surprisingly good of late, creating a lot of points off of turnovers. Compare that to a very high octane offense under Steve Spurrier's South Carolina team and we've got ourselves a ball game. I think the Commies might have their hands full here, but it's at least an interesting matchup to watch.
Arkansas at Alabama- STOP SAYING THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN GAMEDAY. Do you really think Alabama won't ever have game this year? Because you're out of your mind if you do. ESPN has to spread the love outside of the SEC a little bit, and week 4 in Morgantown is the only place they're going to be able to make a legitimate case for a Big East gameday.
Anyway, the matchup is pretty simple. Alabama has an absolutely dominant defense and a potent rush attack. Arkansas probably has the best receivers in the country along with a very good defensive front. We'll see which SEC team-that-starts-with-an-A wins. (probably the one with the "LABAMA" after the A)
LSU at West Virginia- If it's good enough for CGD, it's good enough for me. I've heard lots of descriptions of this game, everything from the more relevant mountaineer offense vs tiger defense all the way down to battle of the two best tailgating schools. I've also heard battle of the two most hillbillly states. To those people, on behalf of both states: Screw you.
Recommended Viewing Schedule:
12- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, ABC
3:30- Trio of great games here: personally, I'd watch Ok.St @ Texas A&M on ESPN2. Do what you gotta do.
7-8 First hour of Florida @ Kentucky, ESPN
8- Cmon, you gotta watch LSU @ WVU.
11:30- second half of USC @ Arizona State. Very underrated game here, if you're still in front of a TV. I won't be!
Predictions: I bet you'll never guess who I pick in the LSU-WVU game...
Mizzou @ Oklahoma
LSU @ West Virginia
Arkansas @ Alabama
Tulsa @ Boise St
South Dakota @ Wisconsin
Ok St @ Texas A&M
Nebraska @ Wyoming
Oregon @ Arizona
Florida St @ Clemson
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina
Virginia Tech @ Marshall
Florida @ Kentucky
Rice @ Baylor
UTEP @ USF
Portland St @ TCU
San Diego St @ Michigan
USC @ Arizona St
Western Michigan @ Illinois
UNC @ Georgia Tech
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Rant Time: Boise Can't Beat the Best Just Yet
I think many of us had that friend in high school that cruised through all the easy classes. He might have been smart, but he was a major underachiever. While you were working hard to keep up with AP Lit homework, he was enjoying the fruits of advanced gym and reminding you that his GPA was just a little bit higher than yours.
The BCS system finds itself in a similar predicament this year. I’m talking, of course, about Boise State University. Boise’s athletic director does his best to schedule one fringe national title contender every year so that his team can lay the best possible groundwork for an argument that goes something like this: “did you see how badly we beat up on our in-conference competition? Did you see us win that one game against that team that is kind of good? Look, we’re undefeated! You can’t possibly deny us a bid in the national title game now!”
Well… why not?
For the second straight year, Boise State has traveled to the east coast to play a preseason top 20 team that many fancied a quiet contender for the national title. Boise eked out a win last year over Virginia Tech in their first game of the season. Evidently they enjoyed the weather on this side of the country, because they made a return trip just last weekend to beat Georgia in their 2011 season opener. The most notable statistic about both games isn’t something you’ll find in a box score, though- each BSU victim followed up their 0-1 start with another heartbreaking loss. Georgia fell to 0-2 on Saturday when they played South Carolina after turning the ball three times and allowing Marcus Lattimore to rush for over 150 yards. In 2010, our very own JMU Dukes played salt to Boise State’s wounds by capitalizing on key moments and taking advantage of Virginia Tech’s short week in a 21-16 upset of historic proportions. Both JMU and South Carolina have now played key roles in shaping Boise State’s ultimate destination. When you damage their already tenuous strength of schedule, you do real harm to the Bronco’s chances of appearing in the national title game. And you know what? Good.
In the Western Athletic Conference, Boise State played eight conference games a year. Since the 2009 season, they have won their conference games by an average of 35 points. No small amount of credit should go to the potency of the offense that hyperefficient quarterback Kellen Moore runs, but let’s be real. Boise State has been blowing their opponents out because they aren’t good teams. The casual football fan can’t name more than one or two teams from the WAC- that’s probably not a good sign for the strength of that particular conference. So while Boise State knocks around creampuffs and programs that could be mistaken for high school teams, SEC and other AQ teams are beating the crap out of each other and eliminating each other from title contention.
Look, I’m not saying Boise State should be barred from ever competing for the national championship. They actually play a significantly more difficult schedule this year as they have moved to the Mountain West and must host the likes of TCU and other more accomplished teams. But when you’re a team from a non-automatic qualifying league and you want to play for the championship against one of the big boys, I think you should have to prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that you belong at the table. As for me? I’m not buying in just yet.
The BCS system finds itself in a similar predicament this year. I’m talking, of course, about Boise State University. Boise’s athletic director does his best to schedule one fringe national title contender every year so that his team can lay the best possible groundwork for an argument that goes something like this: “did you see how badly we beat up on our in-conference competition? Did you see us win that one game against that team that is kind of good? Look, we’re undefeated! You can’t possibly deny us a bid in the national title game now!”
Well… why not?
For the second straight year, Boise State has traveled to the east coast to play a preseason top 20 team that many fancied a quiet contender for the national title. Boise eked out a win last year over Virginia Tech in their first game of the season. Evidently they enjoyed the weather on this side of the country, because they made a return trip just last weekend to beat Georgia in their 2011 season opener. The most notable statistic about both games isn’t something you’ll find in a box score, though- each BSU victim followed up their 0-1 start with another heartbreaking loss. Georgia fell to 0-2 on Saturday when they played South Carolina after turning the ball three times and allowing Marcus Lattimore to rush for over 150 yards. In 2010, our very own JMU Dukes played salt to Boise State’s wounds by capitalizing on key moments and taking advantage of Virginia Tech’s short week in a 21-16 upset of historic proportions. Both JMU and South Carolina have now played key roles in shaping Boise State’s ultimate destination. When you damage their already tenuous strength of schedule, you do real harm to the Bronco’s chances of appearing in the national title game. And you know what? Good.
In the Western Athletic Conference, Boise State played eight conference games a year. Since the 2009 season, they have won their conference games by an average of 35 points. No small amount of credit should go to the potency of the offense that hyperefficient quarterback Kellen Moore runs, but let’s be real. Boise State has been blowing their opponents out because they aren’t good teams. The casual football fan can’t name more than one or two teams from the WAC- that’s probably not a good sign for the strength of that particular conference. So while Boise State knocks around creampuffs and programs that could be mistaken for high school teams, SEC and other AQ teams are beating the crap out of each other and eliminating each other from title contention.
Look, I’m not saying Boise State should be barred from ever competing for the national championship. They actually play a significantly more difficult schedule this year as they have moved to the Mountain West and must host the likes of TCU and other more accomplished teams. But when you’re a team from a non-automatic qualifying league and you want to play for the championship against one of the big boys, I think you should have to prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that you belong at the table. As for me? I’m not buying in just yet.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
10 Things: Football Predictions
Today is a Tuesday, which means we're talking a little bit of NFL. With that in mind, here are 10 predictions I have for the upcoming NFL and college football seasons:
1. The AFC will be incredibly predictable and boring. Out of the AFC's six postseason bids, expect four of them to be repeats. More on this down the road.
2. The Oklahoma-FSU game will not directly impact the national championship. Everyone is billing this as THE game of the year. About 75% of national championship predictions this year are SEC Winner vs the winner of the Sooners and the Seminoles. My questions is... why? Why are we giving FSU and Oklahoma free passes for 11 weeks of the season, plus an ACC title game? I think the Sems drop their regular season finale at Florida (watch FSU @ Clemson, too). I think Oklahoma drops two conference games- Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. Ultimately, I don't think either one has a chance to make the national championship game, though FSU does make a BCS bowl game.
3. The Detroit Lions will finish with a better record than the Indianapolis Colts. This is kind of like two predictions rolled into one. First off, the colts: I'm sorry, Peyton Manning is going to miss how many weeks with a neck injury? Listen, Manning might be the best player in the NFL. Whether he is or isn't is irrelevant. What is certain, at least for me, is that Peyton Manning is the most valuable commodity to his team in the NFL. Find me a player that means more to their team than Peyton. I don't think you can. With Peyton Manning, the Colts are easily a 10, probably a 12 win team. Without him, even for 4 or 5 games? I think the Colts don't even get to .500; Houston will win the Week 1 matchup and the division. Meanwhile, I love the d-line addition of Fairley. The defense will be impressive up front. The running committee will be at least good enough to get defenses to respect it, and that's all Stafford and Megatron need. I think Detroit finishes right around .500. They don't make the playoffs, of course, with the Packers taking the only bid from the NFC North, but the franchise continues to move up.
4. The SEC's national title run will end this year. Okay, so I guess Arkansas is pretty balanced. But overall, I think The SEC offenses are just too weak to compete this year. Combine that with the incredible depth of the SEC West (whose winner will inevitably beat South Carolina in the SEC title game), and you're looking at a league who will most likely not field an undefeated team. The SEC might not even place a team in the national championship for the first time since 2006/2007.
5. The Eagles lose once again in wildcard weekend. When I saw the Philadelphia offseason additions, I'll admit... I was impressed. I hopped on the Superbowl or Bust media bandwagon, all too eager to crown the Eagles champs before the season even began. But the more I researched, the more I saw the writing on the wall. Vick really is not as amazing as everyone says. The line has major, major holes. People are gonna run against the eagles all day, and check out teams that will be frequently playing against them in the regular season AND the playoffs: the cowboys, redskins, and giants, three teams that feature strong running attacks.
6. Boise State will make the National Championship game. I'm not saying I like it. Frankly, I hate that you can play one relatively difficult game and 10 creampuffs and end up in the title conversation. But Kellen Moore and the broncos have hung around just long enough to convince just about everybody that they are contenders regardless of what conference they play in. They're d-line is admittedly very good, and other conferences are deep enough that most teams will not escape the regular season undefeated. Seriously, I hope I'm wrong. But there is a fairly significant chance that Boise runs the table when no one else does and plays for the title.
7. The two Virginia FBS football programs will end up closer in record than most people think. Virginia Tech is a popular outside pick to get to the national championship because the schedule is "managable." This is, of course, another way of saying that VT doesn't play ANYONE. Even their ACC schedule is a cakewalk. But don't expect Tech to run the table this year- Marshall is a bit of a trap game, and I just have this gut feeling that someone in the ACC is going to upset a team with surprisingly few adept skill players. No one runs the table in what is a rebuilding year on paper. Meanwhile, I think Virginia is a bit of a sleeper ACC team and will finish much better than people think. Expect the teams to only be separated by 2 or 3 wins at the end of the year.
8. The second place NFC East team will compete for the last wildcard bid with the third place NFC South team. Atlanta and New Orleans both seem like locks for the playoffs. As overrated as I find the Eagles to be, I still think they win their division. I think the Cowboys and Bucs find themselves in a close battle down the stretch for that last playoff spot. And if you doubt that the NFC South can't put forward three playoff teams, consider this: the fourth NFC south team is the Carolina Panthers.
9. The Big East will have three consistently ranked teams. West Virginia will most likely remain ranked all year because of Dana Holgorsen hype and lots of offensive talent. South Florida will most likely jump into the fringe rankings today after their big upset of Notre Dame on the road. I also think Cincinatti or Pitt will jump into the ranking around the end of September. All four of those teams will at least be in the mix to be ranked for a large majority of the season.
10. The New Orleans Saints will win their second superbowl in three years. Pretty self explanatory. Great offseason. Mark Ingram is a monster. Fantastic coach. Drew Brees. Enough said.
1. The AFC will be incredibly predictable and boring. Out of the AFC's six postseason bids, expect four of them to be repeats. More on this down the road.
2. The Oklahoma-FSU game will not directly impact the national championship. Everyone is billing this as THE game of the year. About 75% of national championship predictions this year are SEC Winner vs the winner of the Sooners and the Seminoles. My questions is... why? Why are we giving FSU and Oklahoma free passes for 11 weeks of the season, plus an ACC title game? I think the Sems drop their regular season finale at Florida (watch FSU @ Clemson, too). I think Oklahoma drops two conference games- Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. Ultimately, I don't think either one has a chance to make the national championship game, though FSU does make a BCS bowl game.
3. The Detroit Lions will finish with a better record than the Indianapolis Colts. This is kind of like two predictions rolled into one. First off, the colts: I'm sorry, Peyton Manning is going to miss how many weeks with a neck injury? Listen, Manning might be the best player in the NFL. Whether he is or isn't is irrelevant. What is certain, at least for me, is that Peyton Manning is the most valuable commodity to his team in the NFL. Find me a player that means more to their team than Peyton. I don't think you can. With Peyton Manning, the Colts are easily a 10, probably a 12 win team. Without him, even for 4 or 5 games? I think the Colts don't even get to .500; Houston will win the Week 1 matchup and the division. Meanwhile, I love the d-line addition of Fairley. The defense will be impressive up front. The running committee will be at least good enough to get defenses to respect it, and that's all Stafford and Megatron need. I think Detroit finishes right around .500. They don't make the playoffs, of course, with the Packers taking the only bid from the NFC North, but the franchise continues to move up.
4. The SEC's national title run will end this year. Okay, so I guess Arkansas is pretty balanced. But overall, I think The SEC offenses are just too weak to compete this year. Combine that with the incredible depth of the SEC West (whose winner will inevitably beat South Carolina in the SEC title game), and you're looking at a league who will most likely not field an undefeated team. The SEC might not even place a team in the national championship for the first time since 2006/2007.
5. The Eagles lose once again in wildcard weekend. When I saw the Philadelphia offseason additions, I'll admit... I was impressed. I hopped on the Superbowl or Bust media bandwagon, all too eager to crown the Eagles champs before the season even began. But the more I researched, the more I saw the writing on the wall. Vick really is not as amazing as everyone says. The line has major, major holes. People are gonna run against the eagles all day, and check out teams that will be frequently playing against them in the regular season AND the playoffs: the cowboys, redskins, and giants, three teams that feature strong running attacks.
6. Boise State will make the National Championship game. I'm not saying I like it. Frankly, I hate that you can play one relatively difficult game and 10 creampuffs and end up in the title conversation. But Kellen Moore and the broncos have hung around just long enough to convince just about everybody that they are contenders regardless of what conference they play in. They're d-line is admittedly very good, and other conferences are deep enough that most teams will not escape the regular season undefeated. Seriously, I hope I'm wrong. But there is a fairly significant chance that Boise runs the table when no one else does and plays for the title.
7. The two Virginia FBS football programs will end up closer in record than most people think. Virginia Tech is a popular outside pick to get to the national championship because the schedule is "managable." This is, of course, another way of saying that VT doesn't play ANYONE. Even their ACC schedule is a cakewalk. But don't expect Tech to run the table this year- Marshall is a bit of a trap game, and I just have this gut feeling that someone in the ACC is going to upset a team with surprisingly few adept skill players. No one runs the table in what is a rebuilding year on paper. Meanwhile, I think Virginia is a bit of a sleeper ACC team and will finish much better than people think. Expect the teams to only be separated by 2 or 3 wins at the end of the year.
8. The second place NFC East team will compete for the last wildcard bid with the third place NFC South team. Atlanta and New Orleans both seem like locks for the playoffs. As overrated as I find the Eagles to be, I still think they win their division. I think the Cowboys and Bucs find themselves in a close battle down the stretch for that last playoff spot. And if you doubt that the NFC South can't put forward three playoff teams, consider this: the fourth NFC south team is the Carolina Panthers.
9. The Big East will have three consistently ranked teams. West Virginia will most likely remain ranked all year because of Dana Holgorsen hype and lots of offensive talent. South Florida will most likely jump into the fringe rankings today after their big upset of Notre Dame on the road. I also think Cincinatti or Pitt will jump into the ranking around the end of September. All four of those teams will at least be in the mix to be ranked for a large majority of the season.
10. The New Orleans Saints will win their second superbowl in three years. Pretty self explanatory. Great offseason. Mark Ingram is a monster. Fantastic coach. Drew Brees. Enough said.
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Hangover: Big East Up, ACC Down at End of Week 1
He scoffed at South Florida.
My friend and former YMCA coworker, who we will call Peter (name changed to protect the hopelessly optimistic), was as big a Notre Dame fan as you can find amongst the non-Catholic, non-Irish-alumni on the east coast. "This is the year they're back," Peter said. "This is the year Notre Dame is back." He wasn't alone in his prognostication; media pundits and poll voters across the country put their faith in Brian Kelly's Irish Offense 2.0. Who was South Florida, perennial third place finisher of the Big East because of their inability to play well down the stretch, to come into South Bend and overthrow one of the most storied college football programs of all time in the year of their big comeback?
"Just watch and see, Peter. Notre Dame is back? Not quite yet they aren't, not until I say they are. And I'll tell you one thing, Peter- South Florida will shock Notre Dame in the opener. Your Irish will start 0-1." I don't think he liked that very much, as he kind of laughed at me. Peter knows that I am a sports guy- he even reads my blog avidly and will brag about me to just about anyone- but he just couldn't believe that South Florida would beat his revamped Notre Dame team. The bulls? A major AQ conference resident for not even ten years. They've never won a Big East title, never been to a BCS bowl game. Sure, they've made headlines a couple times for matching up well and upsetting the Pat White-led West Virginia squads of the mid 2000's, but they are a relatively unheralded team.
In short, they were scoffed at. They were scoffed at by the media who were only too desperate for the story that could have been a resurgent Notre Dame football team. They were scoffed at by my very own readers when I listed South Florida as my twentieth best preseason team. They were scoffed at by the Peters of the world.
Scoffing be damned.
South Florida was a notable storyline that was part of a larger perfect opening weekend for the Big East, a conference often billed as the weakest of the AQ conferences. Assuming WVU wins this never-ending, delayed-for-over-four-hours-now-because-of-weather game against Marshall (they are currently up 21 points with only 30 seconds or so elapsed in the fourth quarter), the Big East conference will have gone 8-0 this weekend. Sure, some of those games were against FCS squads, but those types of matchups have become more and more regular in this college football landscape. Power conference teams aren't guarenteed to pick up wins against FCS teams, either- ask the Pac-12 and Oregon State. WVU will most likely be getting a win against C-USA. USF picked up the aforementioned win against independent but ranked foe Notre Dame. Syracuse staged a dramatic, fourth quarter comeback win over Wake Forest. Which leads me to...
The ACC. Most twelve-teamed conferences average around 1 loss on opening weekend. The statistic is slightly skewed because of the Monday night conference game between Miami and Maryland, but still: only 8 of 12 Atlantic Coast teams will manage wins in week 1. As mentioned above, Wake Forest lost to Syracuse. FCS Richmond upset Duke. Boston College could never really get it going against Northwestern. All in all, the ACC goes 1-2 against nonconference FBS foes this weekend, with the lone victory coming against lowly Troy.
I'll continue to follow out of conference matchups closely through the month of September. If you are still craving more college football after four nonstop days of it, check out Al Golden and Randy Edsall's head coaching debuts tomorrow night when Miami visits Maryland. For the record, I like Maryland to win. And speaking of records...
This weekend: 22/23
This season: 22/23
My friend and former YMCA coworker, who we will call Peter (name changed to protect the hopelessly optimistic), was as big a Notre Dame fan as you can find amongst the non-Catholic, non-Irish-alumni on the east coast. "This is the year they're back," Peter said. "This is the year Notre Dame is back." He wasn't alone in his prognostication; media pundits and poll voters across the country put their faith in Brian Kelly's Irish Offense 2.0. Who was South Florida, perennial third place finisher of the Big East because of their inability to play well down the stretch, to come into South Bend and overthrow one of the most storied college football programs of all time in the year of their big comeback?
"Just watch and see, Peter. Notre Dame is back? Not quite yet they aren't, not until I say they are. And I'll tell you one thing, Peter- South Florida will shock Notre Dame in the opener. Your Irish will start 0-1." I don't think he liked that very much, as he kind of laughed at me. Peter knows that I am a sports guy- he even reads my blog avidly and will brag about me to just about anyone- but he just couldn't believe that South Florida would beat his revamped Notre Dame team. The bulls? A major AQ conference resident for not even ten years. They've never won a Big East title, never been to a BCS bowl game. Sure, they've made headlines a couple times for matching up well and upsetting the Pat White-led West Virginia squads of the mid 2000's, but they are a relatively unheralded team.
In short, they were scoffed at. They were scoffed at by the media who were only too desperate for the story that could have been a resurgent Notre Dame football team. They were scoffed at by my very own readers when I listed South Florida as my twentieth best preseason team. They were scoffed at by the Peters of the world.
Scoffing be damned.
South Florida was a notable storyline that was part of a larger perfect opening weekend for the Big East, a conference often billed as the weakest of the AQ conferences. Assuming WVU wins this never-ending, delayed-for-over-four-hours-now-because-of-weather game against Marshall (they are currently up 21 points with only 30 seconds or so elapsed in the fourth quarter), the Big East conference will have gone 8-0 this weekend. Sure, some of those games were against FCS squads, but those types of matchups have become more and more regular in this college football landscape. Power conference teams aren't guarenteed to pick up wins against FCS teams, either- ask the Pac-12 and Oregon State. WVU will most likely be getting a win against C-USA. USF picked up the aforementioned win against independent but ranked foe Notre Dame. Syracuse staged a dramatic, fourth quarter comeback win over Wake Forest. Which leads me to...
The ACC. Most twelve-teamed conferences average around 1 loss on opening weekend. The statistic is slightly skewed because of the Monday night conference game between Miami and Maryland, but still: only 8 of 12 Atlantic Coast teams will manage wins in week 1. As mentioned above, Wake Forest lost to Syracuse. FCS Richmond upset Duke. Boston College could never really get it going against Northwestern. All in all, the ACC goes 1-2 against nonconference FBS foes this weekend, with the lone victory coming against lowly Troy.
I'll continue to follow out of conference matchups closely through the month of September. If you are still craving more college football after four nonstop days of it, check out Al Golden and Randy Edsall's head coaching debuts tomorrow night when Miami visits Maryland. For the record, I like Maryland to win. And speaking of records...
This weekend: 22/23
This season: 22/23
Friday, September 2, 2011
It Feels Good to Pregame Again
A warm welcome back to the Friday Evening Pregame, an entry intended as a primer for the upcoming weekend of college sports. Today, I’ll briefly take you through some interesting weekend matchups, a recommended viewing schedule for football this weekend, and my own predictions for the top 25 teams in action. Grab your glass, the pregame starts now!
Interesting Matchups
South Florida at Notre Dame: A notable game for more than one reason. Second year USF coach Skip Holtz returns to South Bend to lead a Bulls team that, much like UConn last year, is a trendy dark horse candidate to win the Big East. They’ll face Brian Kelly, also a second year coach, as he continues his efforts to revive an Irish program that has struggled of late. As interesting as the coaching storylines are, I’m much more interested in what’s happening on the field. USF always fields a BDB type of quick defense that is sneaky good. They could prove an interesting matchup for newly reinstated quarterback Dayne Crist, who was not nearly as effective last year against quick defensive lines. Conversely, it should be interesting to see how Notre Dame’s defense, which has been rejuvenated with several SEC-type defensive prospects, will hold up against the dual threat capabilities of Bulls qb BJ Daniels.
Minnesota at USC- Minnesota sports has generally relegated to the corner of the sports world that generally involves using the words “golden gopher” as a punch line. Even still, Minnesota is going to run a style of offense that will grind USC down similar to how UVA did the last time those two teams played. Sure, UVA still lost- but it was a close game because of the style of play. Expect a close game and a great matchup.
Boise State at Georgia- SEC talent vs… well, Kellen Moore. Aside from Boise’s impressive running game, Bronco quarterback and 2010 Heisman finalist Kellen Moore will need to elevate a very mediocre group of receivers if they want to survive to be nationally relevant after week 1 of the college football season. The real great matchup will be Georgia’s front 7 against Boise’s O-line.
Recommended Viewing Schedule:
12:00- Northwestern at Boston College, ESPNU
3:30- USF at Notre Dame, NBC. Alternatively, check out Minnesota at USC (ABC) until 4:45 when BYU @ Ole Miss (ESPN3) starts. Then you could go either way.
7-8: The first quarter or so of ECU vs South Carolina, ESPN3.
8:00: LSU vs Oregon, ABC. If you don’t watch this game, shame on you.
Predictions: My bold predictions according to the USA Today’s top 25, which I compose early in the week before any games occur:
Thursday
UNLV @ Wisconsin
Miss St @ Memphis
Friday
TCU @ Baylor
Youngstown St @ Michigan St
Saturday
Utah St @ Auburn
Kent St @ Alabama
App St @ Virginia Tech
Akron @ Ohio St
Miami (OH) @ Mizzou
Tulsa @ Oklahoma
Oregon @ LSU
Boise St @ Georgia
LA-Monroe @ FSU
San Jose St @ Stanford
LA-Lafeyette @ Ok St
Chattanooga @ Nebraska
ECU @ S. Carolina
Missouri St @ Arkansas
South Florida @ Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic @ Florida
Minnesota @ USC
Sunday
SMU @ Texas A&M
Marshall @ WVU
Interesting Matchups
South Florida at Notre Dame: A notable game for more than one reason. Second year USF coach Skip Holtz returns to South Bend to lead a Bulls team that, much like UConn last year, is a trendy dark horse candidate to win the Big East. They’ll face Brian Kelly, also a second year coach, as he continues his efforts to revive an Irish program that has struggled of late. As interesting as the coaching storylines are, I’m much more interested in what’s happening on the field. USF always fields a BDB type of quick defense that is sneaky good. They could prove an interesting matchup for newly reinstated quarterback Dayne Crist, who was not nearly as effective last year against quick defensive lines. Conversely, it should be interesting to see how Notre Dame’s defense, which has been rejuvenated with several SEC-type defensive prospects, will hold up against the dual threat capabilities of Bulls qb BJ Daniels.
Minnesota at USC- Minnesota sports has generally relegated to the corner of the sports world that generally involves using the words “golden gopher” as a punch line. Even still, Minnesota is going to run a style of offense that will grind USC down similar to how UVA did the last time those two teams played. Sure, UVA still lost- but it was a close game because of the style of play. Expect a close game and a great matchup.
Boise State at Georgia- SEC talent vs… well, Kellen Moore. Aside from Boise’s impressive running game, Bronco quarterback and 2010 Heisman finalist Kellen Moore will need to elevate a very mediocre group of receivers if they want to survive to be nationally relevant after week 1 of the college football season. The real great matchup will be Georgia’s front 7 against Boise’s O-line.
Recommended Viewing Schedule:
12:00- Northwestern at Boston College, ESPNU
3:30- USF at Notre Dame, NBC. Alternatively, check out Minnesota at USC (ABC) until 4:45 when BYU @ Ole Miss (ESPN3) starts. Then you could go either way.
7-8: The first quarter or so of ECU vs South Carolina, ESPN3.
8:00: LSU vs Oregon, ABC. If you don’t watch this game, shame on you.
Predictions: My bold predictions according to the USA Today’s top 25, which I compose early in the week before any games occur:
Thursday
UNLV @ Wisconsin
Miss St @ Memphis
Friday
TCU @ Baylor
Youngstown St @ Michigan St
Saturday
Utah St @ Auburn
Kent St @ Alabama
App St @ Virginia Tech
Akron @ Ohio St
Miami (OH) @ Mizzou
Tulsa @ Oklahoma
Oregon @ LSU
Boise St @ Georgia
LA-Monroe @ FSU
San Jose St @ Stanford
LA-Lafeyette @ Ok St
Chattanooga @ Nebraska
ECU @ S. Carolina
Missouri St @ Arkansas
South Florida @ Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic @ Florida
Minnesota @ USC
Sunday
SMU @ Texas A&M
Marshall @ WVU
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