Consortium VI: JMU Prepares for Colgate in the FCS Playoffs' Round of 16

Tomorrow's clash between JMU and the fightin' Tubes of Colgate toothpaste is the first December football game inside Bridgeforth Stadium in quite some time. So to get you primed for it, I've gathered another gaggle of talking heads. And we're going to, ya know, talk.

Your panelists today:

• Wayne Epps, Editor-in-Chief of the award-winning Breeze
• JMU Sports Blog (Don't pretend like you don't know.)
• Dylan Garner, Sports Producer at the Richmond Times-Dispatch
• Luke Wachob, JMU Alum and former Breeze Opinion Columnist
• Me. Part-time journalist, full-time drunk fan.

1. Armed with a 9-2 regular season record, JMU football is feeling refreshed after a five-day Thanksgiving holiday. The team is playing in December for the first time since 2008; on the other hand, injuries and miscues threaten to take the title-contending Dukes out of Harrisonburg as soon as next weekend. So to this point, has JMU overachieved, underachieved, or performed right at expectations? 

Wayne Epps: I have to say that JMU is performing right at expectations. I expected the Dukes to build on last season’s experience, and here they are with a national seed this year and another home game. You certainly can’t be mad at a 9-2 record either. Yes, there was the undefeated run earlier in the season, and what could’ve been the opportunity for a higher seed if that run stretched longer. But if the goal is to make the playoffs and have a chance at a national championship, the Dukes have accomplished that. Plus, they’re in a better spot than they were last year. Now, after the first-round bye, JMU is four wins away from the ultimate prize.

JMU Sports Blog: From a total body of work perspective, I think 9-2 is in line with even some of the more optimistic fans' expectations heading into the season. The MVC might be the top league in the FCS, but the CAA is no slouch. We certainly didn't expect JMU to run the table and would have taken 9-2 and playoff seed in a heartbeat if they were offered to us back in August. 

However, JMU's play under Vad Lee up until the Richmond game was so stellar, that the hype and expectations were growing to unseen levels. I certainly thought that a National Championship could be in the cards. Since Vad's injury, the "Deathstar" offense has been far less frightening. A Championship or deep playoff run is still possible, but it seems a little less likely than it did a few months ago. Long story short, the team has performed right at preseason expectations, but is falling short of peak expectations when Vad and the offense were hitting on all cylinders.

That was basically two full paragraphs of hedging the fence and not really answering anything. You're welcome. 

Dylan Garner: This was a team that was built, at least strategically, to take advantage of Vad Lee’s skill set in a juggernaut offense. It certainly succeeded, and even with his exit from the lineup, the system is still working very well. I would say they performed at the level that everybody thought they could. Did I necessarily expect a team this strong? Not really. But to say they overachieved might take away from the great mix of talent this team fields, particularly on offense.

Luke Wachob:  Overachieved. If you followed JMU during the late Mickey Matthews era, you know how little preseason hype is worth. Every year is tough no matter what you did the year before, and you have to love playing at home in December. Period. 

Chase Kiddy: I don't disagree with anything that was said above. And I want to add the caveat that any fan who says JMU had a bad regular season is a spoiled, whiney brat who needs a reality check. JMU won the CAA, nabbed a first-round bye, and has (statistically) the best offense in FCS football. Check, please. Thanks for a great year, Everett and Co.

But... couldn't I still make a case that this team has underachieved? Six weeks ago, this team had a legitimate shot to go undefeated and start its own dynasty. The Dukes are still dancing in December, so it's easy to lose sight of what's happened over the last month, but the reality is the following: 

• The Dukes are only conference champions by virtue of William & Mary losing on the last day of the regular season.
• JMU's defense ranks in the back half of all FCS units, despite having the opportunity to pad the stats against some pretty awful teams (Elon, Albany, Morehead State).
• JMU is only guaranteed one home game. If seeding holds, the Dukes will be on the road for the remainder of the playoffs, despite the fact that JMU received first-place votes for the first two thirds of the season.

Look, I'm not saying JMU had a bad season, or that the team shouldn't be proud of their accomplishments. When your best player goes down for the season, expectations have to be re-calibrated. But I don't want to pretend that September and October never happened, either. You can cast a lot of the crash back to Earth on Vad's injury, but the defensive shortcomings? That's the reason for both losses, and that's nothing but failing to perform.

2. JMU has a date with Colgate, uber-methodical champions of the Patriot League, on Saturday at 1pm. Which player is most critical to JMU's success this weekend?

WE: Sophomore quarterback Bryan Schor. Through his first three starts, Schor has proved himself capable at piloting the Dukes’ offense. Even in the loss to the College of William & Mary, JMU was up 41-37 heading into the game’s final minute before a late touchdown run reversed the outcome. The offense may not be producing at the same clip it was with redshirt senior Vad Lee at the helm, but Schor is doing his thing and helping to put the Dukes in position to win games.

JMUSB: I guess Bryan Schor would be the name that first jumps out, but choosing the QB seems like a bit of cop out. I'm pretty confident he'll continue to take care of the ball and will make the plays he needs to when given the opportunity. For me the most critical thing is that his lineman give him protection he needs when passing and open up holes for the running game. So I could choose one particular lineman, but really I think it's the entire line as a unit that will dictate the outcome of this game. If JMU's offensive line dominates the line of scrimmage, the playmakers will take care of the rest.

DG:   I’m going to go with junior wide receiver Brandon Ravenel. Colgate’s weakness on both sides of the ball is the passing attack. The Raiders defense ranks 102nd in among FCS teams in passing yards allowed per game, and they’ve been particularly susceptible to the dink-and-dunk. They don’t allow the yards per play that the other teams dredging in the bottom of the FCS do, but a look at the sheer number of completions they give up makes it seem like they’ll give Ravenel and Bryan Schor plenty of room to work with. Ravenel has two options. He can take the space they give him and make them pay with first down after first down, or he can buck the trend with his big-play ability. I’d expect the former, but regardless, if JMU’s offense puts up 40+ once again, it wouldn’t surprise me to see his numbers jump off the stat sheet.

LW: It’s a quarterback’s sport, so the answer is Bryan Schor. Putting that aside, the JMU defense needs to be sharp against Colgate’s run-first attack, so look for leading tackler Kyre Hawkins to have a big day.

CK: How about Taylor Reynolds? I don't have an official stat on this, but when the dude makes plays, JMU wins. It's pretty much that simple. If JMU can trust their DBs in single coverage, the defense can stack the box and win the line of scrimmage. If JMU gets exposed on the back end, though, it could be a long afternoon.

3. What does Colgate need to do to beat JMU?

WE: Run the ball well. The Raiders rank last in the seven-team Patriot League in pass offense with 190.8 passing yards per game. But led by junior quarterback Jake Melville’s 837 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, Colgate has the Patriot League’s top-ranked rush attack with 196.8 rush yards per game. Meanwhile, JMU gives up an average of 184.4 rushing yards per game, which is eighth out of 12 teams in the CAA. 

Colgate has multiple other run threats besides Melville too. Senior running back Demetrius Russell has 544 yards and six touchdowns, sophomore running back James Holland has 532 yards and a team-high 13 touchdowns and junior running back John Wilkins has 448 yards and three touchdowns. JMU gave up a season-high 321 rushing yards to Villanova in the regular season finale, so the Dukes will be looking to rebound against the Raiders.

JMUSB: Run the ball effectively. Colgate doesn't want to get into a track meet with the Dukes. The Raiders can't match JMU's athleticism and aren't built to win a shootout in the air. Their strength is running the ball. JMU struggles stopping the run and has a bad habit of letting poor tackling turn 3 yard gains into long TD runs. Colgate can win if it moves the ball on the ground and has a few clock eating touchdown drives. 

DG:   Trigger warning -- if things go Colgate’s way, this could be a Jacobi Green situation all over again. The Raiders run the ball a lot, and they have a bunch of different people to run it with. Richmond showed the world what happens when the Dukes can’t control a runner. Don’t think Colgate hasn’t watched clips from that game over and over.

LW: Beat up the Dukes' front-7 and run the ball down their throats. I can’t pretend I’ve been watching Colgate games, but judging from James Hollande’s 4 TD runs in their win over UNH, it looks like they might have the team to do it.  

CK: Every coach I've talked to this season talks about running the ball effectively and winning the Time of Possession game against JMU. That's important, but I think the precursor to that is recognizing the holes in the short passing defense and exposing them. Because of JMU's defensive scheme, there are easy holes underneath that quarterbacks can find and unload into on almost every play. Quarterbacks who are confident in their ability to locate those holes on 3rd and 5 can keep their offense on the field, draw the Dukes' linebackers back into coverage, and spread the defense too thin, effectively setting up a winning ball-control strategy. So running the ball is key, but when you're playing JMU, you've got to pass to set up the run.

4. How far could JMU realistically go in the playoffs? What's the ceiling for this year's team?

WE: I could see JMU stringing together a couple of strong performances and making it as far as the semifinals. The Dukes’ offense is still potent and can still outscore teams. But a trip to the semifinals could mean a duel with the top seed in the bracket, a high-powered Jacksonville State University team. That would be too big of a hurdle this year.

JMUSB: Realistically, JMU could win the whole damn thing. I'm not sure how likely it is, and it's probably less likely than it would be if Vad were still playing, but the bracket sets up nicely for a run. All of the MVC teams are on the other side, as are Richmond and William & Mary. There are plenty of good teams remaining and no doubt, JMU could lose to any one of them. But JMU could also beat any of them. There is no clear cut favorite or single team that is heads and shoulders above the rest. If the Dukes win Saturday, they'd have a very winnable game against McNeese St or Sam Houston. At that point they'd be in the semifinals, playing with a ton of confidence, and anything could happen.

DG:  The 2003 Kansas City Chiefs, my favorite NFL team (don’t judge me), succeeded with two things. 1) They featured a stupidly powerful offense led by Priest Holmes, Trent Green and Tony Gonzalez. 2) The defense had one job -- just get the damn ball any way you can. Gamble on interceptions, and hit the other guy hard enough so that you can force fumbles (they had a +19 differential). Luck ran out for that team as soon as the playoffs hit... go figure. Maybe college football is a better avenue for a team like this to succeed. Maybe not. I’ll say a national championship appearance is the ceiling, but a title? I’m not going to be the one to predict that.

LW: With Vad, I thought JMU could go all the way. They might have been underdogs at times along the way, but the offense was so explosive that anything seemed possible. As impressive as Schor has been, it’s not enough for me to trust this defense once they’re playing top-tier offenses or forced to go on the road. I’ll take each game as it comes.

CK: It obviously depends on what kind of help JMU gets from other teams. I'm iffy about JMU playing McNeese State on the road; I definitely don't think they could survive a trip to Jacksonville without a huge defensive turnaround. But if upsets reign, and the Dukes draw some combination of Sam Houston State, Chatanooga, and/or the Citadel instead, anything truly could happen. Personally, I like them to advance to the quarterfinals before bowing out. It's not a National Championship, but with a season-ending injury to the star quarterback, it's not nothing, either.

5. Game prediction for Saturday?

WE: JMU 42, Colgate 35. Colgate could still have a solid day on the ground, but I think the rested JMU offense, which still leads the Football Championship Subdivision, will be too much for the Raiders at Bridgeforth Stadium.

JMUSB: Schor and the offense pick up the pace a bit, the defense tackles better, and the Dukes' athleticism eventually is too much for Colgate to handle. JMU 38 - Colgate 24.

DG:    Colgate 17:38 JMU. Chase would be pissed if I didn't make some sort of stupid musical reference before the end.

LW: The Dukes versus toothpaste? Gimme the Dukes all day! 30-20.

CK: Give me the Dukes big. I may be a naysayer for the big picture, but I think Colgate is out of steam. Beating New Hampshire in Durham is one thing; beating a rested JMU at (hopefully) sold-out BFS is another matter altogether. Dukes, 42-20.