Consortium II: Gearing up for CAA's

The Consortium returns after a two month absence! I got so much great feedback from the first time around that we decided to do another roundtable on JMU Men's Basketball.

If you've been living under the kissing rock, JMU is tied for second place in the Colonial Athletic Association with three games left in the regular season. The Dukes play first-place Northeastern tonight in Boston. There's your context, now let's get to it.

A brief reminder: our bloggers today are myself, twitter goddess Carleigh Davis (@_carleigh), JMU MBB Breeze beat writer Stephen Proffitt (@JStheproffitt), Executive Editor of 22807 Magazine  Meaghan MacDonald (@megtothemac), and C4G virgin Evan Nicely (the very unoriginal @evan_nicely), making his first appearance here on the blog.

1. On a scale of 1-10, 1 being "the sun came up this morning" and 10 being "Earth-shatteringly shocking," how surprised are you that JMU is in second place in the CAA with three games to play?

Stephen Proffitt: 4. I’m gonna make it that simple. I have been optimistic about this team since the start. The only thing that surprises me is that they’ve done it without their best shooter and arguably one of the CAA’s best shooters, Andrey Semenov (the man is like 49 for his las 101 three’s or something). If asked this question with him active, I’d say a 1. The CAA is off this year and Brady’s combo of freshmen talent and fifth year senior leadership has had great potential since October. Rayshawn Goins said it earlier this year that he’s never been on a team that has been as close on and off the court as this one is. 

Carleigh Davis: Let's go with an 8. Mostly because, last time we discussed JMU men's basketball, I was the largest skeptic of the group. At the beginning, I was really furious with Brady's decision making as the Dukes would drop losses after being ahead at the half. But as the season has gone on, I have found myself in the student section booing refs for badly called games (we remember the Mason game, right?) and checking Twitter obsessively for scores or injury updates. I'm glad they're second in the CAA, but my concern lies in the CAA tourney and whether their ability to pull games out of NOWHERE can withstand the trial of the hardest competition of the season, where everyone's season is on the line.

Meaghan MacDonald: 10! I never thought I would see the day where JMU would be second in the CAA. As a senior, I have seen my share of tragic games, tragic plays and calls and tragic overall seasons. But, when the Dukes have a season like they did last year where even coach Brady hurts himself, I guess you can’t get any lower. I am happy that they’re playing so well, have good team chemistry and getting the most out of their freshman. It’s nice that my last year at JMU the team could end on a high note.

Evan Nicely: 5. JMU is a senior-laden team with talented freshman in a downtrodden CAA that is a shell of itself from the previous years. Without perennial power VCU combined with the shockingly down seasons of ODU and Drexel that we all saw coming after the beginning of the season, I would be much more surprised if they were closer to last. This is a squad that needed to win, to try and save the coaches job and for the seniors to prove to themselves that they can actually win at a school that hasn’t won consistently since the 1980s.

Chase Kiddy: 4. It's gotta be a 4. Because I always knew this team could be this good, maybe even better, if they just got their shit together. They get consistent numbers from Goins and Moore, and then someone else usually give them a big night. If no third player steps up, the Dukes probably lose. If Davis/Nation/Cooke goes off, they almost always win. This team is capable offensively, quite strong defensively, and takes great care of the ball. Couple that with usually unselfish play and underrated coaching, and that makes for a conference contender in a down year for the CAA.

2. Can JMU beat Northeastern tonight?

SP: Yes. Can I move on now? Na, I do think they can win. Northeastern is coming off two straight losses: against Delaware in overtime, which is not a bad loss, but the other was on the road in Trask against the Seahawks. JMU, however is coming off their third CAA sweep of the year on the road in Delaware. Sunday night was the biggest win of the season for the Dukes in my opinion. I’d argue that pretty hard too. While Brady told me today that he thinks any game, “is a coin flip” the amount of momentum they carry from Sunday is big and I think it helps. If they had lost Sunday night, it would be the typical, Dukes road loss, but they changed that. They played like a different road team Sunday night. Their patience really stood out to me. Also their lack of frustration helped keep them in the contest. Multiple times Sunday night, JMU was down double digits, but for once they didn’t let that faze them. Brady said Tuesday they would need to shoot the ball with consistency. Brady also needs A.J. Davis to have a strong impact off the bench. He’s become a key bench player and I think they may have finally found a good role for him. If Davis and Goins can dominate offensively, and Devon Moore can sew all the patches together, they stand a shot against the Huskies. Northeastern is also a terrible rebounding team averaging just over 30 so if the Dukes can control the boards, their chances go up too.

Brady likes to think his freshman are the keys to road wins, but I say if the big three, Davis, Goins, and Moore can play like they did Sunday (Combined for 54 of 72 JMU points) they should be southbound one game out of the CAA lead.

CD: This is difficult. Northeastern is coming off of two back-to-back losses, one in overtime against Delaware. They may be bloodthirsty looking for another win to go 13-3 in the conference. They are 6-7 at home, however, but we know the Dukes can't perform as well on the road. I think the Dukes will lose a very close game, with a final score within 4 points.

MM:  The Huskies lead the series against JMU all-time 10-3 and 3-1 in Boston. JMU is 2-8 away. They are coming off consecutive losses for the first time in months but they are hungry for first place and will put their best foot forward in this game. I think the Dukes will give Northeastern a real fight, if they can get some action from leading scorer Rayshawn Goins and Devon Moore. But the Huskies lead the CAA in scoring offense, field goal percentage and steals and will force JMU to play smart and play clean.

EN: This is a very hesitant yes. I did not believe this team could go on the road and beat Delaware, a team it was behind in the standings, and they did. Despite an atrocious road record, I think this JMU team has had its youth become a little more mature and gotten stellar production from senior guard Devon Moore who has been playing out of his mind recently. Northeastern is also slumping and I believe is feeling the pressure of the No. 1 seed slipping away. JMU wins, but it’s going to be a really close one.

CK: It all depends on the status of Joel Smith. He's the leading scorer on a team that thrives on offense, and he's been limited the last couple games, so it's no surprise Northeastern is suddenly on a losing spree. I think JMU might have exorcised some demons with that incredible win over Delaware (a team that beat Northeastern last week, by the way), and I think they play with a swagger and a force they have rarely exhibited on the road this season. 55% chance they upset the Huskies in Boston.

3. BradyWatch: Last time around, the general consensus was that Brady needed to pull a 20-win season out of his ass to merit keeping his job. Brady is now 4 wins away from achieving that mark. Has his position markedly improved over the last two months?

SP: Yes. First off he’s shown he can properly manage what he has. Besides using Semenov as an excuse for losses, he’s explaining how the Dukes came out victoriously. Does he still need to finish out the season strong and “cause damage in Richmond” as Towson coach Pat Skerry said they were capable of? Yes.After Wednesday the Dukes get Georgia State at home and William & Mary on the road. Although they had a bad loss on the road to the Panthers back in January, I expect them to take care of business on senior day. If you count the Hampton loss (yes that still happened) with the Georgia State loss, the Dukes are 9-4 since then. I only really say that two of those losses are bad too: at Towson and at Drexel. The other two were at George Mason and home against Mason. (JMU is historically terrible against the Patriots no matter how good they are).

CD: Brady. I still don't think I like Brady. Somehow he has managed to coach a bunch of freshmen (or maybe Devon did) and pull out some wins. Do I think 20 wins should allow him to keep his job? No. I still think we could hire someone amazing to come in and teach our Dukes how to play better basketball and put more W's up so that when someone hears JMU basketball, they don't laugh in your face because your program, and your coach, are a joke.

MM: I think Brady’s mark has improved overall. I don’t know if he can get all four wins but what he has done with the team this year compared to last year is incredibly impressive. The team did lose some key seniors, but his recruiting helped fill the void and put together a bench of promising talent. His recruiting has always been questionable in the past but this year may make skeptics take another look at his basketball philosophy. Plus adding Deane to the staff doesn’t hurt either. He has a remarkable relationship with the players, strong work ethic, knows how to out together dynamic plays and has the resume to back it up. Brady will be the coach of JMU next season thanks to the players and staff he brought in.

EN: I still think his job is as much up in the air as it has been and won’t be decided until after the confetti has fallen in Richmond. I feel like most people believe the ceiling for JMU as a program is higher than it actually is at this point. NCAA births almost every year is about as realistic as finding Jimmy Hoffa’s body right now. This is the first winning CAA record since the 99-00 season. The four years before Brady, JMU’s record was 25-89. Brady gave JMU their first winning record in nine years, and is 83-79 overall. That speaks for itself in my books. He can win at JMU, but there are still doubts to if he can win consistently enough to keep Jeff Bourne happy.

CK: Last week, I might have said no- especially because my last answer was so nebulous. I still think only concrete stuff like winning the CAA tourney will definitively secure Brady's job. But I also believe when people reflect on the season, they'll remember the dunk call that won the game over Delaware, and that probably shifts the conversation in Brady's favor.

More than anything, I'm inclined to agree with Evan, who stated JMU's four-year record pre-Brady. JMU basketball hasn't been electric in a while. Do we expect all that to get turned around, 100%, in five years? If so, the athletic department is much more out of touch than I've grown to believe in the last couple years. That's what I wrote in a column last February, and I'm sticking by that.

4. JMU will close out its season at Northeastern, at home vs Georgia State, and at William & Mary. What seed will JMU carry into the CAA tournament in March?

SP: I predict they roll into RVA with the second seed behind Northeastern. If they win at Northeastern, I predict they will win out. No one says I’m correct on that, but that’s my opinion. I predict the Dukes win out and finish 13-5 with number two seed.

Northeastern should win out depending Wednesday’s result. The Huskies play at Georgia State and back home against ODU. Remember though the Panthers were the team that finally broke NU’s perfect streak in conference. Huskies were 8-0 CAA before Ron Hunter brought some dirty south magic to Boston. I predict the Huskies finish 2-1 with a loss to the Dukes. 14-4, number one seed.

Towson faces Drexel, Mason on the road, and Hofstra. I predict they go 2-1 over this stretch with a loss to the Patriots on the road. Tigers finish 12-6 tied with the third seed as they hold the tiebreaker over Delaware. (Tigers swept Blue Hens)

Delaware plays at home against Drexel, on the road at UNCW and Hofstra before finishing the regular season at home against George Mason. I say the ‘Hens go 3-1 finish 12-6 in conference with fourth seed. (I say they lose to Mason on senior day at home)

CD: This is tough. It really depends on if we can beat No. 1 in the league to have 11-5 standing in CAA. If we lose, and Towson beats Drexel like they should, we should have a 3 or 4 seed going into the tournament which is significantly better than last year..

MM: 3-4 seed. JMU will lose tonight, win against Georgia State and lose to William and Mary. The Dukes’ away record is too strong to ignore and discount.

EN: I think JMU will head to Richmond as the number 2 seed in March. I think that even if they win both games I just don’t see Northeastern dropping their last four games in what would be a choke-job for the ages. JMU will just miss out on the bye but a number 2 seed could still see them make the short run at the title.

CK: I'll go with third. While I give JMU decent odds to beat Northeastern tonight, I'd be taking the optimism wayyyyy too far to suggest JMU will win out,  and Northeastern will blow a two-game lead with three games to play. That's just too much to bank on. I think it's far more likely that JMU could beat Northeastern, but lose to William & Mary, who has really owned JMU in Williamsburg the last few seasons. Not that it matters much — in the CAA tournament, the two and three seeds are nearly identical situations. Plus, as it is now, the one seed probably has to play George Mason. Who wants to deal with that?

5. Where will JMU's season end?

SP: This is tough, I could see this team running the table in Richmond and sneak into the NCAA tourney and maybe even get Semenov back into the lineup depending on another evaluation. He could be active by Richmond.   I could also see them losing on Saturday (based on their Richmond history) in their first game inside the grungy Coliseum.  

All in all I think it unfortunately ends somewhere in Richmond most likely Sunday. In 2011 they got a CBI invite, but they had some key wins, one being at VCU. JMU was the last team to beat the Rams before their Final Four run. The team has no big wins this season that amount to anything in the eyes of tourney holders so it’s either win out in RVA and find yourself with an at large or start prepping for next year. There won’t be any film crew inside the Convo on selection Sunday ready to capture the Dukes’ reaction with an at large bid.

CD: JMU's season will come up short in the last game of the CAA tourney. I just don't think it's possible for this team to hang on tight and play well enough to win the CAA. And, if they do, then they will be out of the NCAA in the first game. I can't say I'm a believer of these Dukes yet, but I wish them well.

MM: NIT. I love seeing my team playing so well and hope for the best, however I am realistic. The Dukes lost games that they shouldn’t have lost this year and time to time can make silly mistakes.

EN: JMU’s season, if it ends as a number two seed as I said, they will end up in a postseason tournament not named the NCAA tournament. Despite having more than enough depth and talent to win, JMU has not played well in the CAA tournament under Brady and have lost to teams that they shouldn’t have, like UNC-Wilmington last year. I hear the CBI giving JMU a phone call again just like they did in 10-11.

CK: Remember that part about taking the optimism too far? Well, fuck that guy. JMU will win the CAA tournament  and make its first NCAA appearance since I was a toddler. To me, they look a little bit like 2013 VCU, and while I'm not saying JMU will go to the Final Four or anything crazy like that, I do think they are getting hot at the right time, and can carry their run through the end of the CAA tournament. Brady keeps his job, and everyone gets a happy ending. Watch for the movie from Disney in 25 years.