It's a tradition unlike any other...
No, I'm not talking about a Scott Van Pelt-voiced Master's discussion. WE'RE TALKING PLAYOFFS.
Now someone go tell my 9th grade gym class.
Bengals at Texans:
Saturday, 4:30PM
Before we get started, it's worth noting that this year, I'll be making picks both SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread). Public Service Announcement: don't bet money you don't have. I'm not an ATM.
Breaking down Cincinatti and Houston is pretty uncomplex. Houston has a dynamic running game that will be facing off against a Bengals D-line that has been silently one of the best in the game this season. Cincinatti is a hot team; Houston, despite holding the AFC's best record for about 16 and a half weeks, finished their last four games 1-3.
So naturally, I'm rolling with Houston.
It's more of a gut feeling pick than anything else. Houston has looked very mortal over the course of December, but I want to attribute that more to an air of boredom than anything else. The playoffs are here now, and they're playing a team they beat up on last year- don't forget that the Texans blasted the Bengals 31-10 in this same spot last year.
Cincinatti is young and has a bright future, and they're even built to contain a brash running game like that of the Texans. They can even stage quick comebacks in a hurry with Dalton/Green. But I'm still confident Houston will fire on all cylinders in this game, play the ball control game, and keep Andy Dalton frustrated on the road.
SU Pick: Houston
ATS Pick: Houston -4.5
Minnesota at Green Bay
Saturday, 8PM
Honk three times if this matchup sounds familiar.
Except... does it? The difference is that, for the first time practically all year, the Justice League has fully assembled. Cobb is back after missing last week. Jennings has recovered. Jordy Nelson has gotten his head right. And though the offensive line is still cobbled together at best, Aaron Rodgers stands to have a better chance to get passes off with a full complement of receivers.
I love Adrian Peterson, and I was just crushed when he came up eight yards short of the NFL rushing record last weekend. But I think the Packers are going to completely outgun the Vikings this weekend, regardless of how well they manage to contain AP. Meanwhile, the Vikings as a team might come up flat after throwing everything they had at the Pack last week.
I dont like taking greater-than-a-touchdown favorites, but if you're gonna do it, you better hitch your wagon to a beast with some horsepower. With Rodgers, that's what you're getting, though the backdoor admittedly worries me here.
SU Pick: Green Bay
ATS Pick: Green Bay -7.5
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Sunday. 1PM
You could make a pretty compelling argument that, other than Rodgers, Andrew Luck is the best quarterback playing this weekend. Say what you want about the rookie, but he's got a bizarrely inexplicable staying power about him in games. Juxtapose that next to Ray Lewis' retirement, and we've got a good old fashioned fistfight abrewin.
Bottom line, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will find ways to wreck this game. Luck is as cerebral as they come and will improve as the game progresses, but even in a slump, the Ravens will pull a win out to extend the season.
Then, T.Y. Hilton and Dwight Freeney will guest star on the Wire in the offseason. They'll play gangsters that answer to Lewis, and have to put out a hit on Luck. The anti-symmetry is mindblowing.
SU Pick: Baltimore
ATS Pick: Indianapolis +6.5
Seattle at Washington
Sunday, 4:30PM
It's a shame that these two teams have to play each other, simply because they're the hottest teams in the NFL. Nobody has momentum like a suddenly explosive Washington offense, and the Seahawks are just blowing people out (minus a home loss to St Louis last weekend, after San Francisco's win over Arizona locked the 'Hawks into the 5-spot).
As a Dallas fan/coworker at Massanutten told me the other day, Seattle shits the bed in the playoffs every single year. Then again, his argument also highlighted their totally embarassing 2012 playoff loss, which I was quick to point didn't exist, because the Seahawks didn't make the playoffs last year. So maybe I don't agree with his conclusion that "Seattle and the playoffs don't get along," but I still believe in the Redskins. AHH!
Sorry, just threw up all over the keyboard for actually writing the words "I believe in the Redskins." Oh well. Moving on.
Even though it was a meaningless game, I still believe the loss to St. Louis may have cooled Seattle off a little bit. And while I don't believe in Seattle's playoff woes, I for years now have believed they are a far weaker team on the road. They're essentially the Anti-Giants. In fact, if Tom Coughlin says "Seattle Seahawks" backwards, Pete Carroll is forced to return to his home in the fifth dimension and must stay there for a minimum of 90 days.
RGIII is clearly not quite at 100%, but Morris is just as effective as ever. Seattle's secondary is going to force Griffin into some bad throws, there's no doubt about that. And even though I don't feel great about taking the Redskins to win, I love that they're getting three points at home. Best bet of the weekend, methinks.
SU Pick: Washington
ATS Pick: Washington +3
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