Big 12 Preseason Rankings

Since the media is all aflutter this week with coach interviews, player ranks, and preseason polls, I thought I'd do a couple rankings of my own. This is just quick hits, folks. No explanation, no endearing commentary. I'll be doing the Big 12 today, and the Big East and ACC later this weekend.



1. West Virginia
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. Kansas State
5. Oklahoma State
6. TCU
7. Texas Tech
8. Baylor
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas



...okay, so maybe a little endearing commentary. I think it's important to point out that I have West Virginia on top not just because I'm a fanboy (let's be honest, it was a factor), but because I think Oklahoma is almost as overrated this year as they were last year when they were the preseason #1 team in the land. They're going to be good again- almost certainly a top 2 finish in the conference- but just like last year when I had Oklahoma State taking the conference, I have the quote-unquote "second-best team" beating out the Normanites for all the gravy.

Other things to consider- Kansas State is being vastly overlooked and underrated by basically everyone on Earth. I don't think they have athletes to compete with the likes of Texas or the other top two teams, but they're head and shoulders above the rest of the conference and capable of knocking anyone off.

I wish people would hop off the respective crotches of Baylor and Oklahoma State. This is not a complex concept. The primary reasons their teams were good are now gone. They aren't going to pick up right where they left off. There will be major steps backward.

TCU will have a middle of the pack intro season. Their schedule gets pretty brutal down the stretch.

Texas Tech will finish ahead of the "other teams." They'll be noticably better, too. I'm thinking bowl eligible.

Iowa State will have another middling year, but will stage another huge upset.

Kansas will continue to remind their fans why they appreciate basketball so much.

2012 Bowl Forecasting/Phil Steele is a Moron

The Blog hasn't forgotten about you folks. The Blog does, however, have a second job that is consuming around 50-60 hours a week. Thankfully, Phil Steele has shaken me from my work-induced, apathetic coma.

I enjoy Phil Steele. He has a sleek, shiny website that really makes this blog look like a piece of shit (just being honest). But hey, sometimes a glossy coat of paint can't hide the inner machinations of a complete moron. Phil Steele, I'm calling you out.

Pop Quiz: Take a peek at Steele's 2012 bowl projections. Which of the following best describes these pairings?

A. Utterly Rediculous
B. Completely Idiotic
C. Entirely Wrong
D. Another Superlative Adverb/Degrading Adjective Combination
E. All of the Above


If you chose E, then congratulations! You have won a modicum of intelligence that apparently other bloggers in the field seem to have misplaced.


I won't make you read through all the projections listed on Steele's site-- bowl games are getting to be a bit like Redskin losses, it's just getting entirely too hard to keep track of them all-- so for your convenience, I will list the important ones below:

Rose Bowl: USC vs Wisconsin (C4G Bullshit Meter: 3/10)
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Michigan St (C4G Bullshit Meter: 4/10)
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs Alabama (C4G Bullshit Meter: 7/10)

Orange Bowl: Oregon vs USF & BCS National Championship: FSU vs Oklahoma (C4G Bullshit Meter: temporarily broken due to excessive BS)

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Arkansas (C4G Bullshit Meter: 5/10)
Capital One Bowl: Michigan vs Georgia (C4G Bullshit Meter: 2/10)
Outback Bowl: Nebraska vs Florida (C4G Bullshit Meter: 3/10)
Gator Bowl: Iowa vs South Carolina (C4G Bullshit Meter: 6/10)
Alamo Bowl: Stanford vs West Virginia (C4G Bullshit Meter: 5/10)
ChickFilA Bowl: Clemson vs Tennessee (C4G Bullshit Meter: 7/10)


Okay, so that's a lot to process. But most of that boils down into the following couple of take-away notes:


1. Oklahoma will win nearly every Big 12 game next year, if not go outright undefeated.
2. Florida State will go undefeated and win the ACC championship.
3. Wisconsin will win the Big 10 for the third straight year, followed (in order) by Michigan, MSU, Nebraska, and potentially Iowa.
4. After Oklahoma, Texas will finish second in the Big 12, followed by Oklahoma State, then West Virginia.
5. USC and LSU will each lose at least twice.
6. Georgia will win the SEC East, but the SEC West will have three of the four best teams. (LSU, Bama, Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, Tennesse, South Carolina in that order.)



Okay, so I'm gonna start at home in the Big 12. Thinking that Oklahoma and WVU will be 1 and 2 in some order is typical. Throwing Texas in there, understandable. Throwing OSU in... it's not unheard of, but I certainly wouldn't base postseason predictions off of it.

The Big 10 is a little hairy too. I think Nebraska is being entirely undervalued, but I'm okay with Wisconsin winning. Steele gets a stamp of approval here.

This is the point at which Steele seems to lose his sanity.

The Big 12 is deeper than the hole Leonidas kicks that Persian douchebag into in 300, and there's no way on Earth Oklahoma (or for my money, anyone else in the Big 12) is going to run through that gauntlet unscathed. Oklahoma will not play for the national championship. And Florida State? Is a response even necessary for that? I'm gonna just let that one go, and list it as charity next time I fill out my taxes.

Of course, placing FSU in the title game has far reaching implications. Steele informs us that he doesn't believe an ACC school will be up to snuff for the Orange Bowl in FSU's absence, so the OB selection committee will choose to take Oregon as an at large. They will of course play South Florida. Who else would be better to cap a tale that starts with Florida State not reaching its expectations than another perenially underachieving Florida school? It's all so poetic and flowery. And as they say in the League, pretty damn Frittata.


And let's not forget about Texas' at large BCS bid, or South Carolina having an even worse year than 2011. Ha. Right.

Steele makes some understandable concessions, and follows them up with some downright laughable ones. So for the sake of his education, here's by best shot at predicting the unpredictable:


BCS Title Game: LSU vs USC
Fiesta Bowl: West Virginia vs Pittsburgh
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs Nebraska
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs Oregon

Cotton Bowl: Texas vs Alabama
Capital One Bowl: Michigan vs Arkansas
Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs South Carolina
Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs Mississippi State
Alamo Bowl: Kansas State vs Washington
ChickFilA Bowl: Florida State vs Tennessee

Ascension

I am not going to break any new ground today. By now, you all know that LeBron James has earned-- emphasis on earned-- a championship. He's climbed the mountain, topped the tower, conquered all there was to be conquered (this year). The King has ascended his throne.

I watched James just about every game this postseason not because I am a fan of the Heat-- in terms of basketball, they're actually kind of difficult to watch outside of their transition game-- but because I am a fan of greatness. That's simply what LeBron is. As Mike Greenberg said via twitter, “You don't have to like Lebron, but if you refuse to respect his game, be aware you are taking a position that is indefensible.”

I truly think the flood gates are about to open. I really do. The Miami experiment has officially been justified with a title. Management doesn’t have to be afraid to pour money in to sustain what’s going on. They need guys at the 1 and 5 positions pretty badly (as badly as any championship team has ever needed them, probably), and odds are they’re probably going to get them now.

More importantly, Lebron James has exorcised some demons this postseason. I’m not talking about public perception either. It’s fun to debate what you and I think, but ultimately, it doesn’t quite matter. What does matter is the state of mind James can enter postseason games in. I fully believe the pressure is off now. Sure, he’s still expected to win. That’s a given. But he’s already got the snazzy hardware on his hand, and the ant-on-fire, microscopic focus with which Lebron has fallen under the last few seasons will be gone.

And I think they’re gonna pour it on. The Miami Heat are about to go on a tear. One for the ages.

The haters… well, they’ll continue to do their thing. I don’t know what Skip Bayless has to say this morning, nor do I particularly care that much. Someone said a few days ago that LeBron has become so polarizing, he’s actually on the level of politics at this point. People have made their decisions already. Conservatives are Conservatives and Liberals are Liberals; the same is true with LBJ. If you like him, you’re going to continue to like and appreciate him. And if you don’t like/hate him—whether it be because you didn’t like “The Decision,” and his $1,000,000 donation to charity, whether you’re jealous, whether your summer house is in Cleveland, or whatever other possible reasons there are—you will continue to not like him. It’s engrained.

If the best revenge is to live well, then today, LeBron James has his revenge. Dan Gilbert can suck it.

Some Memorable Quotes:

“So,let me get this straight: You hate guys who take less money and sacrifice individual glory to try to win titles in a team sport.” –Mike Greenberg, Twitter

“The past two months haven't been a coronation for the new Finals MVP as much as they've been an acquittal. That's what everything has been about for James since he decided to sign in Miami and then chased that with an end to last season that legitimately shamed him. Not all of it can be washed away with beer and champagne, but James was willing to try.” –Brian Windhorst, Daily Dime


“I did it the right way; I didn't short-cut anything. It's the hardest thing I've ever done.” –LeBron James, on this year’s playoffs.


“LeBron James, by the sheer tidal force of the 28.6 point/7.4 assist/10.2 rebound average line he posted in these NBA Finals -- including 26/13/11 in the clinching game -- didn't just refute the old arguments against his "clutchness," but obliterated them, rendered them ridiculous. Do yourself a favor: Take a minute to appreciate the mastery of the sport we witnessed these past eight weeks. It doesn't happen often.”   –Tom Sunnergren, Philadunkia/Daily Dime


“Great NBA season. Enjoyed playoffs. Congratulations to Miami & OKC for an exciting Finals. Back to work on next weeks promising Cavs draft.” –Dan Gilbert, Twitter


“His 26 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists in the closeout game represented, by any measure, the cherry on one of the greatest individual playoff runs in history. He averaged 30 points and 10 rebounds during the playoffs; moved to power forward when Chris Bosh missed nine playoff games with an injury; led rallies from deficits in three consecutive series; delivered one of the most dominating games of this generation with 45 points in a road elimination game in Boston; got his first Game 7 victory; set a record for number of playoff games with at least 25 points, five rebounds and five assists; and became the fifth player ever to have multiple Finals triple-doubles. You could go on and on. The summation is that James is a worthy champion.”  -Brian Windhorst, Daily Dime


“Finally.” –Skip Bayless

“LeBron James is the first player in nine years to win both the regular-season league MVP award and the NBA championship in the same season. The last was Tim Duncan in the 2002-03 season.” –Elias Sports Bureau

“What I meant to say was, the Cleveland Cavaliers will win one championship before LeBron wins seven.” –Dan Gilbert

(okay, fine,  I made that last one up)

“But really, I've known since the Pacers series; definitely since the end of the Boston series. This is the best player in the world. The best player of his generation. His lack of rings meant about as much as the number of Oscars sitting on Martin Scorsese's mantel when he made Goodfellas. Zero. I knew right then: I'm watching something special. It makes one Thursday night different than all the rest. It makes watching every minute worth every second.” –Chris Ryan, Grantland

“For the past two years, the sportosphere has been focused on the fallacy of deconstructing greatness. Although daily arguments over behavior in late-game situations and historical placement are part of the natural sports discourse, the NBA fan has been stuck in an unhealthy, argumentative state. We are more interested in analyzing individual body language than in deconstructing a team's pick-and-roll defense. Now that the Miami Heat have seized control of the NBA Finals, we are mentally preparing for a world where LeBron has officially earned his place in the discussion of greatness. All of our arguments are about to become irrelevant, exposing the flawed template we used to construct our anti-LeBron values.” –Carles, Grantland

“I’d been quietly pulling for the Miami Heat to win the title since April -- and not because I find LeBron James to be sympathetic or because I like the Heat’s brand of basketball or even because I have a lingering attachment to the Heat after covering them in Miami during the 2010-11 season.
I simply wanted it all to be about basketball again, because the public exercise of trying to probe James’ inner life had grown tiresome. The ease with which epithets like choke artist, fraud and much worse have been thrown at James has always been petty and, when examined closely, they usually rang false. In recent months, those takedowns had also become boring, and the prospect that they’d continue to dominate the NBA for at least another year was excruciating…  All that talk is over. The next time James falls short -- and he almost certainly will at some point -- we’ll measure that failure in the context of the game, not in the language of hysteria.”  -Kevin Arnovitz

“[Losing last year] was the best thing that ever happened to me in my career. Because basically, I got back to the basics, it humbled me, and I knew what it was going to take and I was going to have to change as a basketball player and change as a person to get what I wanted.” –LeBron James

Early ATS Predictions: Good Bets & a WVU Preview

Today on the C4G blog, we’re continuing in the same vein of betting ATS.

Earlier in the week, I made some predictions as to how some of the most important games of the season might fall. Often times, though, looking at spreads is a lot harder when there’s a lot on the line in a nationally televised game. So today, I recommend some less relevant games to look at for high-percentage ATS bets.



September 6- Pittsburgh at Cincinatti (-5)

So Pitt. Ugh. Most readers know I like the University of Pittsburgh somewhat similarly to how I like getting root canals, lobotomies, and prostate exams all at the same time. But even I know a good Pittsburgh-related bet when I see one.

Cincinatti has owned the Big East since Rich Rod’s departure from Morgantown, winning or sharing all but one of the titles since the 2008 season. So it’s not surprising to see them as a home favorite here early on in the season before individual team reputations can really get established. But the Bearcats lost Big East Offensive POY (RB Isaiah Pead) and Big East Co-Defensive POY (DT Derek Wolfe). Wolfe, along with other draft losses like JK Schaffer, were instrumental in stopping the run last year in all the UC games that I watched. Meanwhile, Pead was a major force of offense for the Cats.

That was then. Now, Cincinatti looks to reload and fix all their holes with young guys as Ray Graham and the Panthers roll in to town. Ray Graham probably would have gone on to win BE OPOY had he not gone down with a season-ending injury in the middle of the season.

So, what I’m seeing here is a really good runningback going up against a suddenly untested, young defense. Early on in the year, I’m taking the five points and my much maligned rivals in a game I believe Pittsburgh will win outright.

Pick: Pitt +5


September 8- Georgia at Missouri (+3)

Ouch. Welcome to the SEC.

Eastern favorite Georgia is gonna roll into town early on in week 2. Missouri hasn’t been relevant since ya boy Chase Daniel was hanging out. Three points isn’t nearly enough for Missouri to pull off an upset like this.

Pick: Georgia -3


September 14- Washington State at UNLV (+17.5)

Did WSU suddenly get really, really good when I wasn’t looking? Because if memory serves, the Cougs weren’t that close to something trivial like bowl eligibility last year, let alone a winning season. UNLV isn’t a worldbeater either, but I can’t really fathom State winning by over 17 points on the road.

Pick: UNLV +17.5


September 15- USC at Stanford (+7.5)

7.5 spreads are always dangerous, but USC is preseason #1 team in the land, and it seems Stanford has run out of Luck. I like the Trojans by double digits.

USC -7.5


September 8- Clemson at FSU (-8)

The ACC is the most overrated conference in America and has been for a long time (two BCS wins says it all). Hence why their conference champion can run through the conference like a hot knife through butter (okay, maybe a luke-warm knife…) and beat the second best team of the conference soundly, twice. I’m still offended this shitbucket of a conference got two BCS bids last year, and yeah, I want to take it out on someone or something. With all the Virginia Tech fans out of my sordid apartment, it looks like you, my lovely reader, are now the object of my aggression.

Clemson is going to get shit on this preseason. That’s a fact. The only thing people are going to see when they see Clemson Orange and that gay paw print in the number 70, and while part of me wants to beam with pride, another part of me feels kind of sorry for the Clemson fan base. They’re going to get disrespected a lot this year, and they still have a pretty good team.

(I still contend that the Orange Bowl was less about Clemson being overrated and more about WVU being underrated)

Can we get some respect for the champs up in here? The only team deserving of a 2011/2012 season BCS bid is not going to be a pushover, and I have 0 reason to believe in a Florida State team that takes a dump in their pants year after year after year. This is by far not the strongest bet on this page, but I’d still take it without question. Clemson wins outright, and I enjoy my eight point cushion.

Pick: Clemson +8


September 29- Arkansas at Texas A&M (+2.5)

Ahh yes, another welcome-to-the-SEC present, this time for the Aggies. Even in College Station, 2.5 points isn’t enough to overcome one of the premiere teams this upcoming season.

Arkansas -2.5

October 20- UNLV at Boise State (-35.5)

Again, UNLV pops up. I’m not saying they’re gonna be an epic team here or anything. But Boise is losing Kellen Moore, that rechargeable battery that has made the Broncos and their bedazzled field so near-invincible. Without him, and against a Boise team that is destined to have a comparatively down year, I am just logically obligated to take the five touchdowns being handed to me here.

Pick: UNLV +35.5


November 8- Florida State at Virginia Tech (-1)

This is basically a pick em contest on a Thursday night. And while I detest all things Tech (as well as the constantly growing “Enter Sandman” references like the city of Blacksburg owns the song—just like Boston thinks they own Neil Diamond’s “Sweet Caroline”), I’m taking the castrated turkeys to handle their business at home, at night, on ESPN.

Pick: Virginia Tech -1


November 20- Kansas State at TCU (-3.5)

I touch on this a little more later on, but Kansas State is underrated and TCU is overrated. Collin Klein is a baller. Cats win outright.

Pick: K-State +3.5

Okay, now for my fellow fans (and also those of you that like to mock my homer picks, I’m looking at you Karthik)… it’s time to take a peek at some early release West Virginia lines.

There might be other establishments that have released spread information for 2012 WVU football, but since I’ve been doing Golden Nugget thus far, I’ll stick with the guys that got me here.

September 1- Marshall at WVU (-20)

So this bet scares me more than you might think. The Herd seem to be more and more pissed off that they’ve never beat us every year, and they aren’t without some speedy little guys that can make plays of their own. And I love Doc Holliday. He’s a great coach.

I am somewhat tempted to believe in the power of the points here. But WVU won by 18 last year in a highly segmented game where Geno couldn’t get into a rhythm because of rain delays, not to mention it was his very first game in Dana’s system. The program enters the season with on an incredible high note, and I’ve got to think they can pick up three more points.

Pick: WVU -20


September 29- Baylor at WVU (-11)

Baylor is going to be offensively challenged without RG3 in the backfield. Maybe more importantly though, this game isn’t just in Morgantown—it’s the first Big 12 game, which happens to be at home. And remember, I don’t mean first of the season. I mean first, ever. And it happens to be in Morgantown. You think fans will be intoxicated fired up?

Pick: WVU -11

October 6- WVU at Texas (-4)

If you’ve talked me into talking football in person with you, I’ve probably already told you that this is it. This is the game that scares the bejesus out of me. Oklahoma will lose in Morgantown, I’ve all but guaranteed it, but this is the game that nobody will talk about until 10 days before it happens. It’s just Texas! They’ve been down!

Down or not, Texas still has a lot of hyperathletic recruits that can give our athletes like Tavon Austin problems. I think Texas is going to be really fired up to push around the new kids on the block, and this is West Virginia’s first real test of the season anyway. On the road against a team we’ve never played, I think this is the game that decides our fate.

Pick: Texas -4


October 20- Kansas State at WVU (-7.5)

K-State is a drastically underrated team in all of these spreads, and I think they will match the Mountaineers step for step in this game. I think they might even lead at halftime. But WVU will win this game by 10 or 11 and clear the spread.

Pick: WVU -7.5


November 3- TCU at WVU (-6)

What scares me about this game is not anything about TCU—just the opposite actually, I think they are incredibly unscary defensively—but external circumstances. West Virginia is probably only a one loss team at this point, and a potentially undefeated Oklahoma team is coming to town in the next home game. College Gameday rumors will be flying around. And it’s easy to look past TCU as an unexplosive team with nothing special about it.

If TCU goes to 7.5 or above, I think I’d take Gary and the inscrutable toads. But at six, I’m sticking with my team to win a scary, potentially overlooked game.

Pick: WVU -6

(Coincidentally, Gary and the Inscrutable Toads would be the name of my future hypothetical band.)



November 10- WVU at Oklahoma St (-6.5)

Dana’s homecoming will most likely be unpleasant, but the Pokes are being seriously overrated this preseason. They are losing their two most important players, both of whom were hugely mature playmakers, and odds makers seem to be failing to fully take this into account.

Now, no disrespect intended here. I’ve been to Stillwater, and their stadium is surprisingly imposing. (It’s right next to their basketball stadium.) WVU may very well lose this game, it wouldn’t surprise me terribly if this was a post-Oklahoma letdown. But I think it would be close (unlike a potential Texas loss) and I’m taking the points.

Pick: WVU +6.5


November 17- Oklahoma at WVU (+4)

It’s well documented at this point.  I believe Oklahoma will lose this game.

Pick: WVU +4

So there you have it. Homer picks from the homer writer.

Since we’re talking odds, I’d like to leave you an accurate depiction of WVU’s odds at the National Championship. This comes from Bleacher Report’s Alex Callos, and I think we absolutely nailed it, so all credit to him:

“West Virginia is a dark horse for the national championship and has one of the most explosive offenses in the country.

The Mountaineers are very talented led by quarterback Geno Smith and two dynamic wide receivers.

Others may not be as high on West Virginia, but this team has the potential to win all of its games and play for the BCS National Championship.

Whether or not that happens remains to be seen.

Odds- 12:1”


Couldn't have said it better myself.

Early ATS Predictions: Primetime Games

The blog likes college football. It’s common knowledge. It’s so common, the cold wants its adjectival modifier back.

So when Las Vegas’ Golden Nugget Hotel and Casino came out with 100 early lines on some of the bigger games of the 2012 season earlier this week, I was obviously ecstatic. Going ATS is a personal favorite hobby of mine, so I’m here to go on record with a handful of the biggest games from this upcoming season.

September 1: Michigan at Alabama (-12)

 Alabama is losing a lot of defensive pieces; Michigan has a powerful offensive punch. This is the first game of the season and the Wolverines have a ramblin, scrambling, seasoned vet at quarterback. Michigan is going to keep it close regardless of whether or not they win. I’d take the points.

Pick: Michigan +12


September 22: Michigan @ Notre Dame (-1)
I guess this is what happens when Michigan is remotely relative… they pop up on all sorts of lists like this. This is the second of three times Michigan is going to pop up on this list, and just like last time, I’m going with the fighting James Howletts. Notre Dame is offensively overrated, even as head coach Brian Kelly is not, and loses key defensive playmakers from their pass rush. Meanwhile, Michigan is still on the uptick. This feels like a 7-9 point Michigan win to me, so the fact that you’re getting even one point here as an underdog makes it an easy choice for me.

Pick: Michigan +1. And give yourself an additional ten C4G points if you picked up on the Marvel reference.


October 6: LSU @ Florida (+7.5)

Home dogs are always something to consider, especially when you get outside of the one touchdown range… but I have a serious asterisk next to the University of Florida in the Post-Tebow era. LSU will have the premiere defense in the country next year, and I’m not even sure the swamp can deter them from winning a mildly challenging road game. LSU probably leads most of the game and tacks on a few extra points at the end to put this into double-digit territory.

Pick: LSU -7.5


Octotber 13: The Red River Rivalry (Oklahoma -6)

I’ve always thought this game was kind of overblown on the national scene. I realize they’re two of the “traditional powers” in college football, but Oklahoma is overrated EVERY year (I’m hypervigilant of the current Four Horsemen of Apocalyptic Overratedness: the aforementioned Florida, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech) and the Longhorns aren’t quite back to their historically typical everything’s-bigger-including-our-win-total level.

All that being said, Texas’ sprinkled on talent and offensive inadequacies won’t be enough to deter Oklahoma. They might be overrated, but they’ve still got enough in the tank to beat Texas pretty soundly.

Pick: Oklahoma -6


October 27: Notre Dame at Oklahoma (-12)

This is just a mash up of previous things I’ve said. Oklahoma is a touch overrated, but in a battle of horsemen, I’m taking the top 10 home team in a big way.

Pick: Oklahoma -12


November 3: Oregon at USC (-6)

This might be the toughest pick to make. It’s certainly not a game I would bet on blindly in real life, but I’ve gotta throw it up here because it’s probably a Pac-12 championship preview. I think Oregon’s speed could give SoCal some real problems, and it’ll surely be a great game to watch. But in LA, with Barkley at the helm playing against a lot of new pieces out of Eugene, I think I’ll take my chances with the newly unshackled Trojans.

Pick: USC -6


November 3: Alabama at LSU (-2)

Game of the Century part 3? National championship built-in rematch? Opportunity for millions of Louisianans to get drunk? Mindlessly boring defensive showcase? Glaringly obvious first-round draft pick showcase?

I don’t care what you call it. But after a 6-3 decision in GOTC Part 1, I’ll take the home team by a marginal spread.

Pick: LSU -2


November 24: Michigan @ Ohio St (+3)

This is one of those games where part of me wish that neither team could win. Alas, they took ties out of college football. My plight is unbearable.

I kind of hate both of these teams, but Ohio State is going to be a solid football team after a little Meyer-based tutelage. I like the Bucks to beat Michigan at home this year, so the three point cushion is an early Christmas present from my Las Vegas Santa Claus.

Pick: Ohio State +3

Later this weekend, I preview some of the easiest preseason bets to take, as well as some West Virginia home cooking. Check it out Saturday.

The Sixth Man: WCF Preview

Lots of great reader feedback from some new  blog followers on last week's Sixth Man entry, so here we are again, previewing my Spurs' chances in the Western Conference Finals.


1. Which is more true?

A. The Spurs can win an NBA title with offense.
B. The Spurs' defensive shortcomings might be fatal.

It's A. Maybe this is my newly developed WVU-in-the-Big-12 mentality poking through where it doesn't belong, but you don't need to defend well when you can outscore everyone else. San Antonio had one of the highest scoring offenses in the Association back in the regular season, second only to the Denver Nuggests. There are too many scoring options- WAY too many- on this team for their defense to limit how high this team can achieve.

Is their defense as good as it was in heyday of the Tim Duncan era? Of course not. But it's not like they don't play any defense at all, either. The times, they are a changin. San Antonio will win this year behind a methodical approach on the other side of the ball.


2. Who means more to his team: James Harden or Manu Ginobili?

It's James Harden. I'm one to believe that Harden's Sixth Man Hardware, not to mention his midnight sonata with Metta World Mishaps' elbow, elevated him from a slightly underrated player to a drastically overhyped player who is talked about wayyyy too much these past few days. But the dude can still ball with the best of them, and he's a hugeplayer in this series for one main reason.

Manu is a nice deep threat and keys a lot of the spacing San Antonio uses to set up pick and roles and other aspects of their offense.  But that's just the thing- he is one part of a dynamic offense that has so many other creaters and role-players. Oklahoma City's best two players are point-scoring dynamos, but other prominent team members (like Serge Ibaka) are more known for their defensive presence rather than their offensive abilities. Harden provides a go-to third guy for offense where no one else may exist. San Antonio doesn't have that problem.


3. How important is the difference in coaching experience?

I don't want to say what Popovich brings to the table is a non-factor... but it's basically a non-factor. Pops is probably the best coach in the NBA right now, but this game is chalk full of superstar players. Put ten guys on the hardwood and let em play. Coaching is only going to determine so much.


4. What's the key for OKC to win?

Russell Westbrook. Tony Parker called him about before the series- not in a brash, arrogant way but merely saying they needed to guard him because KD was gonna get his regardless of what they did. Westbrook, however, the Spurs feel they can stop. Or, equally as likely, the Spurs want him to think that they think they can stop him. Fun with jedi mind tricks, Tony parker is having.

If Westbrook plays well, doesn't create a sloppy mess, and makes good decisions on when to shoot himself vs when to distribute effectively, the Thunder are likely to control their turnovers and play efficiently. After that, it's a matter of using their youth as an advantage and tiring out Tim Duncan's beloved knees.

If, however, Westbrook tries to throw down the gauntlet and do too much (or too little, depending on how you want to look at it), he might become a turnover machine. Giving up extra possessions to a lethal offense like San Antonio is nothing but damning. The Thunder have to limit themselves to 14 turnovers or fewer per game. 15 or more, and they have a 0% chance of winning the series.


5. Who wins?

I've struggled with this pick evers since the beginning of the playoffs, because this series was inevitable.

Originally, I had the Thunder in 6. Then the Spurs in 7. Then the Spurs in 5. Then the Spurs in 6. Then the Thunder in 7. And now I just don't know.

But I'm going to say the Spurs in 6. As even as this series seems, I don't think the Thunder will win in San Antonio, at least initially. They may grab game 5 in a measure of desperation, especially if the Spurs pick up a game in OKC. But I think the Thunder's weaknesses play right into the Spurs' strengths, and though I think Kevin Durant is just an absolute monster on the court, I don't know where he will find the buckets around him to keep up with San Antonio's offense.




That of course gives me quite a dilemna- do I want to see my Spurs win the championship, or do I want to not hear another offeseason of whining and complaining and "see, I told you so's, Lebron James will never win a championship"'s.

Ah, who am I kidding. Let's go Spurs.

The Sixth Man: Pacers-Heat, Game 6

It's time for another segment of the Sixth Man. If you're new to the blog, this segment is a response to ESPN's 5-on-5 NBA commentary articles. Today, we're talking about the Miami Heat potentially closing out Indiana in tonight's game 6.


1. How do you expect the Pacers to respond in Game 6 after Larry Bird called them "soft" following Game 5?


In the grand scheme of things, I'm not sure Bird's comments matter. Lots of people seem to be referencing games 3 & 4 of the 1984 finals when Bird famously called his teammates sissies, but that was then and this is now. Responding after a game 3 loss is a lot different than responding in a game 6 loss with elimination on the line.

The Pacers are going home to Indy and have their backs against the walls- if they still need Larry Bird to fire them up, they're already doomed.


2. Fact or Fiction: We'll see two or more flagrant fouls in Game 6.

Fiction. The Heat can't afford to have any players ejected with their depleted-for-various-reasons depth, and the Pacers are surely concentrated less on tough-guy machismo. The refs will surely be calling anything that's remotely close to borderline flagrant, but I still think both teams keep it pretty clean.


3. Fact or Fiction: The Heat will really miss Udonis Haslem.

Fact. Absolute fact. It doesn't matter that Haslem has statistically been one of the worst performers in the entire playoffs this year, he's a forward on a team that's already sorely missing Chris Bosh. Haslem's (and rookie Dexter Pittman's) suspension leaves the Heat so desperate that they will actually need to activate players for their first career playoff games. Beyond that, Miami will need to rely on the particular talents of Joel Anthony, Ronny Turiaf, Juwan Howard, and Eddy Curry... also known as the inadequate, the too small, the arthritis-ridden, and the oh-good-grief.



4. Fact or Fiction: If Danny Granger is hobbled, the Pacers are done.


That's a fact. By my reckoning, Danny Granger's hobbling is pretty similar to Chris Bosh's injury. Danny Granger is a really important source of offense, so the Pacers will clearly miss that if he's 100%, but he's just as important for the general spacing of the team. Indiana wants to bang it around inside in the paint, but Granger's presence on the perimiter and even in the elbow forces defenses to respect the outside shooting of the Pacers. His ineffectiveness means that if Miami can lock Paul George down, they can spend the rest of their time focusing on the Paint.

Just as importantly, Granger can't really guard Lebron James at 150%, let alone 50-80%. Even on the road, an uninhibited Lebron James should scare the crap out of the home fans tonight.

Even if the Pacers win tonight, LBJ will be smelling the blood in the water if Granger is hobbled. He will close the series out in game 7. The Pacers will be done regardless- the only thing that will change is how many ECF games Dexter Pittman will need to sit, 1 or 2.


5.  Fact or Fiction: Miami's Game 5 dominance will carry over.

Utter fiction. Even not if but WHEN Lebron James dominates both sides of the floor tonight, and even if Dwayne Wade has another huge game, the Heat's 5v2 quest just got even harder with the suspension of two more forwards. The Pacers are a physical  team, which means forward is the position that the Heat need some depth and skill at. Without either, it's sure to be a low-scoring, ugly kind of game.

I predicted yesterday morning on twitter that the Heat would close the series out if Granger wasn't at 100%. That was, of course, before the two suspensions were announced. Still, with Lebron still in name-taking mode, I think this game will be a coin toss. Who will win? I can't say, though I'm leaning Pacers. Either way, don't expect a blowout.