I missed a large portion of the games yesterday because I was watching a mini-marathon of softball from 2-7:30 (eat shit Pitt!). So not a lot of basketball watching on my part. I did notice a sort of trend though... This weird thing happened where all the high seeded teams wons. Kind of weird. Thought I'd mention it.
This March has been a strange one for my bracket. I'm not doing too hot, yet all of my bigtime picks are still in tact. I've got some major demons to slay today as MSU battles Saint Louis (not worried), Florida State plays Cincinatti (okay, maybe somewhat worried), and Creighton faces off against North Carolina (should I have gone to church this morning?). If I can take two of those three, I'm still in good shape. If I somehow manage all three, my bracket will be primed to take a commanding lead in most pools.
However, I'll be rocking the press pass at a women's NIT game today, so it will be another day of box scores and gamecasts.
Other thoughts:
-After the last few years, why were we all so ready to jump on the Vanderbilt bandwagon? I'm just as guilty as the next person. I wasn't quite ready to throw them in the Final Four, but i did have them upsetting Wisconsin. Another preseason top 10 team... another year with no sweet 16 appearance for the Commies.
-Marquette is really showing the balance of a team that wants to win the national title. They basically have the easiest path EVER to the Elite Eight (they were dealt a shouldn't-even-be-in-the-NCAA-tournament BYU team, a nationally overrated Murray State squad, and the winner of UVA/Norfolk State). Once there, all they have to do is handle business against Michigan St/Louisville. They match up well with the Cards. If not, well hey. Nice run for the butcher, the baker, and the candlestick maker.
-Yeah, Buzz Williams may be first team all-press conference, but I seriously have no idea what this means.
-Ohio State looked pretty good as they handled Gonzaga. Some people are gonna say that the game never should have been as close as it was. But have you seen the last two games the Zags have played? They've played out of their mind, way above where they should be playing. Survive and advance. The Buckeyes have.
-Team that looked the best today: Syracuse. Clinging to a one point halftime lead, Syracuse shot like US army-trained snipers the second half. Scoop Jardine looked like a man possessed, hitting consecutive threes and distributing the ball like he played for the Clips or something. At one point, Syracuse went through some five or eight minute period where they actually shot 90% from the field. Oh, and their bench outscored K-State 33-0. Even though the habitual residents of the Octagon of Doom sorely outrebounded them, particularly on the offensive glass (where the Orange have had their biggest problem in games without Fab Melo this year), there was no stopping the kind of show that Syracuse was putting on in the second half yesterday.
Remaining S16 Teams after Day 3: 8/16 (Kansas St, Vanderbilt out)
Remaining F4 Teams after Day 3: 4/4 (UK, MSU, FSU, Creighton still in)
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Day Two Reaction
This is probably a historic day of upsets. It's probably safe to say that never before has such a rediculous day unfolded. 10's, 11's, and 12's all won, all topped off my the never-before-seen two separate 15 seeds topping two different 2 seeds. Good grief. Where to even begin.
Well, I guess I'll begin with my bracket. Today was almost the exact same as yesterday. The day started off perfect, and I moved through the day perfect until about 6 or 7. Then... well the shit hit the fan, to be frank. I dropped several of my last final games to finish the weekend 20/32. The bad news is that. I'm only 4 games above .500. The good news is that most of the teams I whiffed on don't matter, at least historically speaking. I missed on a lot of teams that are likely to lose before the end of the weekend. The bigtime players are all still in it. Neither Duke nor Missouri made it past the Sweet 16 in my bracket, which most people can't say. That means that, though I might be taking a point dip right now, I should end up ahead of most people in my pools.
For example, first place in one particular pool has scored 24/32 so far. He picked four more games correctly than I did. However, the absolute maximum number of points he can score is 132 because of the advancement of Mizzou and Duke. (Keep in mind we operate on a standard 1/2/4 scale in this particular pool.) Meanwhile, I'm sitting at 20/32 (still in the top 10 of the pool), but my maximum is 164. I had Missouri losing to Marquette and Duke losing to the ND/Xavier winner. So the damage is minimized. In the long term, I benefit from the chaos. So even though I lost points, I'm sitting pretty happy after the first full round.
Other thoughts from today:
-Offense beats defense... at least for today. That's the message when Creighton pulls out a one point win over defense-minded Alabama. I'm certainly anxious for the fate of my Bluejays, who I have in the NC game. If they can barely beat a 9 seed, can they really knock off UNC. Are they really a Final Four threat?
Then I remember Butler's game winner over ODU last March, and I feel alright.
-Like VCU, Cincinatti's ability to close out games might end up hurting them by the end of the NCAA touranment. But still, they looked pretty good today. Yancy Gates proved that he can fufill a role besides designated face-puncher, and they are a serious threat to knock off Florida State, who I have schedule to make a deep run in this tournament.
-HAHAHAHA, Georgetown is totally gonna drop another game as a high ranked seed playing a dangerous low-major team... wait, what? They won by 25?
My bracket has NC State upsetting both San Diego State and Georgetown. I like how the Pack has played recently, but it's hard to argue with the beatdown the Hoyas laid on a pretty good Belmont team today. This might finally be the year Georgetown breaks through and plays like the team they are capable of being.
-Lehigh (a team who has never won an NCAA game) defeating the ultra-elite Duke might make the best movie some day in the future, but don't get it twisted. Norfolk State over Mizzou was the biggest upset of the day, and maybe of all time. The MEAC is about as unheralded as they come, and Mizzou is a very good team, even if their unconventional sets (4 guards) do have flaws built into the system itself. Meanwhile, Duke might be the most overrated fourth-ranked team of all time. They occupied the top 5 for most of the seaosn, but they sure weren't playing like it. I picked Duke to lose before this weekend was over because all it would take for them to drop out was a bad shooting night. People will argue over whether today's outing should be classified as a "bad shooting night," but what they won't argue over is how disappointing Coach K's squad has been this year. Duke seems to be all or nothing in NCAA tournaments since the year 2001; either they win the whole thing, or they make a completely odd, unexpectedly early exit.
-You know what? Ditto for Michigan. Both Michigan and Duke are teams that have lived and died by the 3-point shot, and well... they both died by it tonight. Neither did enough to survive the night, and now John Beilein is stuck scratching his head. Shoulda stayed in Morgantown, Johnny.
-Team that looked the best today: Georgetown and Florida both deserve some honorable mention, but I'm going with NC State. The hottest team in this NCAA tournament continued their hotness by more or less dominating sixth seed San Diego St today. As I mentioned earlier, I have the Pack in the Sweet 16. They're capable of going farther than that based on how well they are playing right now, but I'm not sure they have to talent to knock off a Kansas or a UNC.
Remaining S16 Teams after Day 2: 10/16 (Notre Dame, Missouri, Temple out)
Remaining F4 Teams after Day 2: 4/4 (UK, MSU, FSU, Creighton still in)
Well, I guess I'll begin with my bracket. Today was almost the exact same as yesterday. The day started off perfect, and I moved through the day perfect until about 6 or 7. Then... well the shit hit the fan, to be frank. I dropped several of my last final games to finish the weekend 20/32. The bad news is that. I'm only 4 games above .500. The good news is that most of the teams I whiffed on don't matter, at least historically speaking. I missed on a lot of teams that are likely to lose before the end of the weekend. The bigtime players are all still in it. Neither Duke nor Missouri made it past the Sweet 16 in my bracket, which most people can't say. That means that, though I might be taking a point dip right now, I should end up ahead of most people in my pools.
For example, first place in one particular pool has scored 24/32 so far. He picked four more games correctly than I did. However, the absolute maximum number of points he can score is 132 because of the advancement of Mizzou and Duke. (Keep in mind we operate on a standard 1/2/4 scale in this particular pool.) Meanwhile, I'm sitting at 20/32 (still in the top 10 of the pool), but my maximum is 164. I had Missouri losing to Marquette and Duke losing to the ND/Xavier winner. So the damage is minimized. In the long term, I benefit from the chaos. So even though I lost points, I'm sitting pretty happy after the first full round.
Other thoughts from today:
-Offense beats defense... at least for today. That's the message when Creighton pulls out a one point win over defense-minded Alabama. I'm certainly anxious for the fate of my Bluejays, who I have in the NC game. If they can barely beat a 9 seed, can they really knock off UNC. Are they really a Final Four threat?
Then I remember Butler's game winner over ODU last March, and I feel alright.
-Like VCU, Cincinatti's ability to close out games might end up hurting them by the end of the NCAA touranment. But still, they looked pretty good today. Yancy Gates proved that he can fufill a role besides designated face-puncher, and they are a serious threat to knock off Florida State, who I have schedule to make a deep run in this tournament.
-HAHAHAHA, Georgetown is totally gonna drop another game as a high ranked seed playing a dangerous low-major team... wait, what? They won by 25?
My bracket has NC State upsetting both San Diego State and Georgetown. I like how the Pack has played recently, but it's hard to argue with the beatdown the Hoyas laid on a pretty good Belmont team today. This might finally be the year Georgetown breaks through and plays like the team they are capable of being.
-Lehigh (a team who has never won an NCAA game) defeating the ultra-elite Duke might make the best movie some day in the future, but don't get it twisted. Norfolk State over Mizzou was the biggest upset of the day, and maybe of all time. The MEAC is about as unheralded as they come, and Mizzou is a very good team, even if their unconventional sets (4 guards) do have flaws built into the system itself. Meanwhile, Duke might be the most overrated fourth-ranked team of all time. They occupied the top 5 for most of the seaosn, but they sure weren't playing like it. I picked Duke to lose before this weekend was over because all it would take for them to drop out was a bad shooting night. People will argue over whether today's outing should be classified as a "bad shooting night," but what they won't argue over is how disappointing Coach K's squad has been this year. Duke seems to be all or nothing in NCAA tournaments since the year 2001; either they win the whole thing, or they make a completely odd, unexpectedly early exit.
-You know what? Ditto for Michigan. Both Michigan and Duke are teams that have lived and died by the 3-point shot, and well... they both died by it tonight. Neither did enough to survive the night, and now John Beilein is stuck scratching his head. Shoulda stayed in Morgantown, Johnny.
-Team that looked the best today: Georgetown and Florida both deserve some honorable mention, but I'm going with NC State. The hottest team in this NCAA tournament continued their hotness by more or less dominating sixth seed San Diego St today. As I mentioned earlier, I have the Pack in the Sweet 16. They're capable of going farther than that based on how well they are playing right now, but I'm not sure they have to talent to knock off a Kansas or a UNC.
Remaining S16 Teams after Day 2: 10/16 (Notre Dame, Missouri, Temple out)
Remaining F4 Teams after Day 2: 4/4 (UK, MSU, FSU, Creighton still in)
Friday, March 16, 2012
Day One Reactions
Why was I looking forward to anything Pittsburgh-related again? Please remind me.
Coming in to today, I highlighted WVU-Gonzaga and Wichita-VCU as the two most exciting matchups of the day.
Well, at least I was right once.
Even as a diehard fan, it was hard to watch the West Virginia blowout while a mid-on-mid classic was raging on CBS. I'm famous for sticking around til the absolute eleventh hour in obvious WVU losses, but even I have my limits. With eight minutes to go and stuck in a never-changing 25-point hole, I finally called it quits. Close friends will tell you that you know I'm pretty pissed off when I have to go lift weights to purge the rage from my system. It's a rare event, but until I calm down, I am not a fun person to be around.
On the bright side, my Wichita/WVU picks were really my only incorrect notions on the day. Other than those two teams (both of whom I had advaned to the Sweet 16), my bracket did okay. Not blowing people out of the water, but not horrible either. Pretty typical first day for me- when my bracket does well, it's because I nail the later rounds, never because I start strong.
My other reactions:
-Boy, what to say about that Syracuse game. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but how many gifts can one program get in a year's time? There was the inexplicable extra point debacle last fall, don't forget. The saw-it-with-even-my-naked-eye goaltending miss at the end of regulation vs West Virginia. Who knows how many games Syracuse picked up because Fab Melo played when he was, in all actuality, probably ineligible. And now just blatant, egregious missed calls against Asheville today. I did not personally see the lane violation so I won't speak to that, but the horrible possession call at the end of the game (in a one possession game!) is just horrible. My heart breaks for those kids from UNCA. If a 16 seed was ever to knock off a 1 seed, this was it- not only was the Cuse at its most vulnerable in its first game without Fab Melo since the end of January, but UNC Asheville is a pretty solid team. You know, for low end major teams anyway. In all actuality, they probably deserved a 15 or a 14 seed.
Jim Boeheim said after the game that the "better team won." And he's right. Syracuse is a better team than UNC Asheville. I'm not sure anyone would argue the letter of that statement. But it doesn't mean they were a better team today. Because frankly, they weren't.
-It's only halftime, but Iowa State is handling UConn pretty handily. People thought UConn would not only dominate ISU, but really challenge overall #1 seed Kentucky. Remember- there's a reason they were 8-10 in the Big East. It's because they're honestly not that good of a team. (And just think about what that means for WVU, who the Huskies beat not once but twice this season.)
-Other than Syracuse looking like a 10 seed, not a 1 seed, the top 10 teams in the tournament cruised. The only other closish game was Baylor. That game was highly publicized as a tough matchup for the Bears, even as a 3-14 game. So not even that was totally shocking.
-Team that looked the best so far: Marquette. Missouri is a popular pick to get out of the West region and go onto the Final Four and beyond. But I have them losing to Marquette in the sweet 16. My upset picks are usually brilliant or completely idiotic (see: Creighton over UNC), but I think this one trends toward brilliant. Marquette can play small ball right with Mizzou, and have not one but two go-to players in Jae Crowder and DJO, whereas I think Kim English is the only guy on the Tigers that is THE GUY. Marquette can match the four guard set, they can match the inside-out play, and they can guard English in the 4 spot. If they continue to play like they did today (Thursday) then I feel good about the pick, and I shall watch as bracket empires crumble around me.
Remaining S16 Teams after Day 1: 13/16 (WVU, Wichita St, UNLV out)
Remaining F4 Teams after Day 1: 4/4 (UK, MSU, FSU, Creighton still in)
Coming in to today, I highlighted WVU-Gonzaga and Wichita-VCU as the two most exciting matchups of the day.
Well, at least I was right once.
Even as a diehard fan, it was hard to watch the West Virginia blowout while a mid-on-mid classic was raging on CBS. I'm famous for sticking around til the absolute eleventh hour in obvious WVU losses, but even I have my limits. With eight minutes to go and stuck in a never-changing 25-point hole, I finally called it quits. Close friends will tell you that you know I'm pretty pissed off when I have to go lift weights to purge the rage from my system. It's a rare event, but until I calm down, I am not a fun person to be around.
On the bright side, my Wichita/WVU picks were really my only incorrect notions on the day. Other than those two teams (both of whom I had advaned to the Sweet 16), my bracket did okay. Not blowing people out of the water, but not horrible either. Pretty typical first day for me- when my bracket does well, it's because I nail the later rounds, never because I start strong.
My other reactions:
-Boy, what to say about that Syracuse game. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but how many gifts can one program get in a year's time? There was the inexplicable extra point debacle last fall, don't forget. The saw-it-with-even-my-naked-eye goaltending miss at the end of regulation vs West Virginia. Who knows how many games Syracuse picked up because Fab Melo played when he was, in all actuality, probably ineligible. And now just blatant, egregious missed calls against Asheville today. I did not personally see the lane violation so I won't speak to that, but the horrible possession call at the end of the game (in a one possession game!) is just horrible. My heart breaks for those kids from UNCA. If a 16 seed was ever to knock off a 1 seed, this was it- not only was the Cuse at its most vulnerable in its first game without Fab Melo since the end of January, but UNC Asheville is a pretty solid team. You know, for low end major teams anyway. In all actuality, they probably deserved a 15 or a 14 seed.
Jim Boeheim said after the game that the "better team won." And he's right. Syracuse is a better team than UNC Asheville. I'm not sure anyone would argue the letter of that statement. But it doesn't mean they were a better team today. Because frankly, they weren't.
-It's only halftime, but Iowa State is handling UConn pretty handily. People thought UConn would not only dominate ISU, but really challenge overall #1 seed Kentucky. Remember- there's a reason they were 8-10 in the Big East. It's because they're honestly not that good of a team. (And just think about what that means for WVU, who the Huskies beat not once but twice this season.)
-Other than Syracuse looking like a 10 seed, not a 1 seed, the top 10 teams in the tournament cruised. The only other closish game was Baylor. That game was highly publicized as a tough matchup for the Bears, even as a 3-14 game. So not even that was totally shocking.
-Team that looked the best so far: Marquette. Missouri is a popular pick to get out of the West region and go onto the Final Four and beyond. But I have them losing to Marquette in the sweet 16. My upset picks are usually brilliant or completely idiotic (see: Creighton over UNC), but I think this one trends toward brilliant. Marquette can play small ball right with Mizzou, and have not one but two go-to players in Jae Crowder and DJO, whereas I think Kim English is the only guy on the Tigers that is THE GUY. Marquette can match the four guard set, they can match the inside-out play, and they can guard English in the 4 spot. If they continue to play like they did today (Thursday) then I feel good about the pick, and I shall watch as bracket empires crumble around me.
Remaining S16 Teams after Day 1: 13/16 (WVU, Wichita St, UNLV out)
Remaining F4 Teams after Day 1: 4/4 (UK, MSU, FSU, Creighton still in)
Saturday, March 10, 2012
10 Things: Blind NCAA Predictions
I say it every year- March is the greatest month of the year. Period. No sporting spectacle compares to the NCAA tournament. Not the Superbowl, bowl season, NBA/NHL finals, UEFA cup, World Cup, or Olympics. Nothing sweeps over America quite like March Madness.
Selection Sunday is tomorrow (stop by our Viewing Party if you happen to be in Harrisonburg for the Selection Show), but before the brackets are revealed... before we even know who all the autobids are, really, I'm going to make 10 predictions as to the nature of this year's bracket. Some may seem like common sense; some may seem rediculous. But I've watched enough basketball this season to really feel these in my gut, and now I'll be sharing them with you.
1. The Big East will surprise people. In what has been a "down year" for the reguarly dominant Big East, I think this conference is going to surprise people with what it does. While there isn't the talent at the top of the giant conference like there normally is, the middle of the pack from Georgetown to Seton Hall have all moved giant steps forward. (You may say 'Seton Hall, really??' but was the Hall even a fringe bubble candidate last year?)
If you want specifics, I predict two Big East teams will make the Elite Eight. At least one will seriously contend for the Final Four/National Championship.
2. The Big 10 will grab two final four spots. I have said all year that this is the year that the Big 10 has been the best conference. MSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Purdue have formed a core half of the conference who are capable of making deep runs in March. But it's not just quantity, it's quality- most of these teams have big physical bodies to go along with excellent guard play, and that inside-out play will enable the Big 10 to grab not just one but two spots in the national semi's.
3. The First Four will really, really suck. No one knew it at the time (and if someone says they did, they're lying) but last year's First Four ended up ripe with the intrigue of an actual National Championship contender. But it's not just that- the games were actually good. Fun to watch. Enjoyable. Don't expect the same treatment this year, with a historically weak bubble. Teams that are 8-10 in conference play are projected to make the final cut- and that's not even who will play in these games. When you're dealing with teams that are actually worse than the Big East's less than average, it's time to turn off the TV and grab the shotgun.
4. West Virginia will make the Sweet 16. Okay c'mon, by now you know I gotta stick a homer pick in here.
Fringe POY candidate Kevin Jones has absolutely carried this team through this calendar year, with Truck Bryant occassionally deciding to help out in big ways. Without him, this team is frighteningly bad. I expect Jones, fresh off a shocking Big East POY snub, to be locked in and focused on upsetting a couple of teams. The Mountaineers can go as far as the bracket allows them too- if they're a ten seed, they have a legit chance to win three games and get to the regional finals. If they're a eight/nine seed, I don't see them winning more than one game.
5. West Coast conferences will fall apart. Pac-12, MWC, and WCC- you are all on notice. I have no faith in your wildly inconsistent guards, and as the saying goes, guard play wins the games in March. I dont expect more than one or two teams from all three of these conferences to make the second weekend.
6. Another Cinderella will captivate America... Look, I have no idea who it's going to be, but with the wild parity in this year's season, it's safe to say that some off-the-beaten-path team is going to make some noise. Elite Eight. Final Four. I don't know. Maybe it's a more predictable team like Murray State (doubt it), Creighton (meh) or Wichita State (probably). Maybe it's a team that makes you google their University page just so you know where they're from (Belmont). Someone is gonna be that team this year.
7. ...But it won't be VCU. The Rams of Richmond had a run for the ages last year. Don't expect it to happen again. While Shaka's HAVOC pressure will return to the NCAA dance, that's about all that returns. Last year's magical run was largely based off a team that is as senior-heavy as senior gets, not to mention three-point shooting that would make Jerry West consider Prozac unnecessary (uhh... too soon?) Bottom line is that kind of combination of crazy luck and seniority is a once or twice in a generation type of thing. VCU is good and they'll probably even win a game. But realistically, I don't see them winning more than 2 games.
8. Syracuse won't make the Final Four. All year, as the Orange nearly ran the table, we said "wow, looks like they aren't the team they normally are.' Well, maybe they are. Every year, I think that there's no possible way that the Cuse can get beat in the BE/NCAA tourney and every year, they find a way to lose. This time, they managed to lose in the BE semifinals to unranked Cincinatti. I think the Bearcats are really good (Cronin deserved Coach of the Year over that guy from South Florida for sure) but better than Syracuse?
Judges Ruling? Helllll nah. Yeah, didn't think so.
Syracuse will once again find a way to drop a game in the second weekend of play despite their incredible depth. Farewell in advance, potential #1 overall seed.
9. Kentuck won't win the National Championship. Similar to my eighth prediction. Uhh... how many years has Calipari had the best class in the nation? Or a top ranked team? Or been a favorite to win the national championship? How many times has he done it? Yeah... that's kind of what I though.
Kentucky walks the walk during the regular season. They even win the SEC tournament, unlike Syracuse, who underperforms throughout the entire basketball postseason.
But Kentucky barely eeked out a win over Florida this weekend. Frankly, the team in Gainesville is crazy overrated. Kentucky might make a second straight final four, but they aren't gonna win the national championship this year.
Hey Calipari, can you hear those voices? No, you're not going crazy. They're just NBA GM's, and they're calling you. I'd pick up the phone.
10. The season will end where it started
with North Carolina playing Michigan State for the national title. Unlike on the aircraft carrier, the Spartans take the real prize. Anyone getting tired of rematches in National Championships this year?
Selection Sunday is tomorrow (stop by our Viewing Party if you happen to be in Harrisonburg for the Selection Show), but before the brackets are revealed... before we even know who all the autobids are, really, I'm going to make 10 predictions as to the nature of this year's bracket. Some may seem like common sense; some may seem rediculous. But I've watched enough basketball this season to really feel these in my gut, and now I'll be sharing them with you.
1. The Big East will surprise people. In what has been a "down year" for the reguarly dominant Big East, I think this conference is going to surprise people with what it does. While there isn't the talent at the top of the giant conference like there normally is, the middle of the pack from Georgetown to Seton Hall have all moved giant steps forward. (You may say 'Seton Hall, really??' but was the Hall even a fringe bubble candidate last year?)
If you want specifics, I predict two Big East teams will make the Elite Eight. At least one will seriously contend for the Final Four/National Championship.
2. The Big 10 will grab two final four spots. I have said all year that this is the year that the Big 10 has been the best conference. MSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Purdue have formed a core half of the conference who are capable of making deep runs in March. But it's not just quantity, it's quality- most of these teams have big physical bodies to go along with excellent guard play, and that inside-out play will enable the Big 10 to grab not just one but two spots in the national semi's.
3. The First Four will really, really suck. No one knew it at the time (and if someone says they did, they're lying) but last year's First Four ended up ripe with the intrigue of an actual National Championship contender. But it's not just that- the games were actually good. Fun to watch. Enjoyable. Don't expect the same treatment this year, with a historically weak bubble. Teams that are 8-10 in conference play are projected to make the final cut- and that's not even who will play in these games. When you're dealing with teams that are actually worse than the Big East's less than average, it's time to turn off the TV and grab the shotgun.
4. West Virginia will make the Sweet 16. Okay c'mon, by now you know I gotta stick a homer pick in here.
Fringe POY candidate Kevin Jones has absolutely carried this team through this calendar year, with Truck Bryant occassionally deciding to help out in big ways. Without him, this team is frighteningly bad. I expect Jones, fresh off a shocking Big East POY snub, to be locked in and focused on upsetting a couple of teams. The Mountaineers can go as far as the bracket allows them too- if they're a ten seed, they have a legit chance to win three games and get to the regional finals. If they're a eight/nine seed, I don't see them winning more than one game.
5. West Coast conferences will fall apart. Pac-12, MWC, and WCC- you are all on notice. I have no faith in your wildly inconsistent guards, and as the saying goes, guard play wins the games in March. I dont expect more than one or two teams from all three of these conferences to make the second weekend.
6. Another Cinderella will captivate America... Look, I have no idea who it's going to be, but with the wild parity in this year's season, it's safe to say that some off-the-beaten-path team is going to make some noise. Elite Eight. Final Four. I don't know. Maybe it's a more predictable team like Murray State (doubt it), Creighton (meh) or Wichita State (probably). Maybe it's a team that makes you google their University page just so you know where they're from (Belmont). Someone is gonna be that team this year.
7. ...But it won't be VCU. The Rams of Richmond had a run for the ages last year. Don't expect it to happen again. While Shaka's HAVOC pressure will return to the NCAA dance, that's about all that returns. Last year's magical run was largely based off a team that is as senior-heavy as senior gets, not to mention three-point shooting that would make Jerry West consider Prozac unnecessary (uhh... too soon?) Bottom line is that kind of combination of crazy luck and seniority is a once or twice in a generation type of thing. VCU is good and they'll probably even win a game. But realistically, I don't see them winning more than 2 games.
8. Syracuse won't make the Final Four. All year, as the Orange nearly ran the table, we said "wow, looks like they aren't the team they normally are.' Well, maybe they are. Every year, I think that there's no possible way that the Cuse can get beat in the BE/NCAA tourney and every year, they find a way to lose. This time, they managed to lose in the BE semifinals to unranked Cincinatti. I think the Bearcats are really good (Cronin deserved Coach of the Year over that guy from South Florida for sure) but better than Syracuse?
Judges Ruling? Helllll nah. Yeah, didn't think so.
Syracuse will once again find a way to drop a game in the second weekend of play despite their incredible depth. Farewell in advance, potential #1 overall seed.
9. Kentuck won't win the National Championship. Similar to my eighth prediction. Uhh... how many years has Calipari had the best class in the nation? Or a top ranked team? Or been a favorite to win the national championship? How many times has he done it? Yeah... that's kind of what I though.
Kentucky walks the walk during the regular season. They even win the SEC tournament, unlike Syracuse, who underperforms throughout the entire basketball postseason.
But Kentucky barely eeked out a win over Florida this weekend. Frankly, the team in Gainesville is crazy overrated. Kentucky might make a second straight final four, but they aren't gonna win the national championship this year.
Hey Calipari, can you hear those voices? No, you're not going crazy. They're just NBA GM's, and they're calling you. I'd pick up the phone.
10. The season will end where it started
with North Carolina playing Michigan State for the national title. Unlike on the aircraft carrier, the Spartans take the real prize. Anyone getting tired of rematches in National Championships this year?
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Rant Time: The Content of Your Game
(Editor's Note: This is the full version of an article posted in The Breeze on February 16, 2012.)
I always laugh a little bit when I hear fully grown adults with PhD’s start taking shots at Generation Y. They say that we’re too lazy. We’re the dumbest generation. Don’t trust anyone under 30. Google is making us stupid. Really? You want to put your 8-10 years of higher education to use by putting down young adults that aren’t even fully formed persons yet?
As you can tell, I tend to reject most of the criticism that is thrown around out there. Still, there is a grain of truth to some of what is said. If anything, I think GenY is too naïve. Now a full generation removed from the 1960’s, few of us even really have parents who can fully remember what this country was like before the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was ratified.
People who try to be trendy might say “I don’t see color.” But no one walks around saying that there are no differences between men and women. Growing up on either side of the turn of the millennium, I obviously saw color. I saw black, white, yellow, brown, and everything else. I just didn’t really care, nor did I see what the difference was. To a Generation Y kid, I can’t even understand what people were thinking when they might look at anyone different than themselves and think “gee, you’re a minority? That’s grounds for needing to go to a different bathroom.” It is truly unfathomable. In a world of overused hyperbole, it is a concept that literally boggles my mind.
That is why I don’t get Luis Suarez.
He’s a 25-year-old striker for Liverpool. Back in October, Suarez got into a bit of a verbal spat on the field with Manchester United player Patrice Evra. This was followed by a 115-page report that determined that Suarez kicked Evra and told him it was because he was black. When Evra understandably became angry because of this racial abuse and asked him to repeat what he had said, Suarez only replied, “I don’t speak to blacks.” Then Suarez called Evra a “negro” a couple times before scurrying along.
Still, there is a new hope rising in the (far) east, and his name is Jeremy Lin.
If I told you three weeks ago that an economics graduate sleeping on his friend’s couch was going to ignite the sports world and dominate ESPN, you’d have probably wondered aloud how I even got a sports column to begin with. Yet here we are nearing the end of week two of Linsanity. With Amar’e Stoudemire already back and Carmelo Anthony set to return to the lineup later this week, people are buzzing with anticipation. Will the ascent of previously unheralded point guard Jeremy Lin continue? I don’t know. I am not a Knicks fan, so I am not personally invested in their success, but at this rate, Lin could be elected Secretary-General of the UN by the end of this weekend.
I don’t want to anoint him just yet, but there is certainly some substance to the hype surrounding Jeremy Lin. After all, in his first four starts, he has outscored every player since the history of the NBA merger of 1976. So how much hype is appropriate, you ask? That’s all a matter of perspective. Many pundits have said he is the Tim Tebow of basketball, but Tebow was a Heisman-winning quarterback with two national championships who was drafted in the first round. Lin was undrafted and received zero Division 1 scholarships. Tebow’s stats are underwhelming; Lin’s stats are just the opposite.
Some have gone so far as to say he is a 21st century Jackie Robinson. Lin may have grown up as a minority at the turn of the 21st century, but Jackie Robinson was truly discriminated against. He surely would not have been allowed to attend Harvard. Lin may be a cultural phenomenon, but Robinson is a historically significant icon. Let’s slow that bus down just a little bit.
Still, as an Asian Harvard grad who wanted to play in the NBA, I’m guessing Lin knows a thing or two about unfair judgment. He’s no Robinson, but it’s reasonable to assume Linsanity hasn’t always been quite so, well, insane. These scouts have gotten so use to seeing a certain type of mould at combines, and let’s face facts. Jeremy Lin is not that mould.
It shouldn’t matter what you look like. In 2012, I would hope a player is judged not by the color of their skin, but by the content of their game.
But what do I know? I’m just a stupid kid.
I always laugh a little bit when I hear fully grown adults with PhD’s start taking shots at Generation Y. They say that we’re too lazy. We’re the dumbest generation. Don’t trust anyone under 30. Google is making us stupid. Really? You want to put your 8-10 years of higher education to use by putting down young adults that aren’t even fully formed persons yet?
As you can tell, I tend to reject most of the criticism that is thrown around out there. Still, there is a grain of truth to some of what is said. If anything, I think GenY is too naïve. Now a full generation removed from the 1960’s, few of us even really have parents who can fully remember what this country was like before the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was ratified.
People who try to be trendy might say “I don’t see color.” But no one walks around saying that there are no differences between men and women. Growing up on either side of the turn of the millennium, I obviously saw color. I saw black, white, yellow, brown, and everything else. I just didn’t really care, nor did I see what the difference was. To a Generation Y kid, I can’t even understand what people were thinking when they might look at anyone different than themselves and think “gee, you’re a minority? That’s grounds for needing to go to a different bathroom.” It is truly unfathomable. In a world of overused hyperbole, it is a concept that literally boggles my mind.
That is why I don’t get Luis Suarez.
Except that last weekend, when Suarez came back from his suspension, his first act was to skip Evra while the two clubs shook hands before their game. If you’ve ever played organized sports, you know that skipping someone in the handshake line generally isn’t an accident. It’s intentional, and it’s meant to send a message. I’d love to take Suarez’s £40,000 and bet that he planned and schemed up that little trick during his eight-game suspension. It would be great to come back with a racist bang, right where he left off, and start some fireworks.
Like all great vengeance plans, this one backfired. Evra and Man U of course felt disrespected and willed themselves to a 2-1 victory. This time, the football association failed to find Suarez’ actions as inappropriate, and they have announced there will be no sanctions against him. How the exact same commission that just spent 115 pages explaining why he was a racist can fail to find this inappropriate, I will never understand. But it does reinforce the fact that the subtle, ugly tones of racism still find themselves seeping into the world of sports every now and again. I don’t understand how someone just four years older than me can understand a mentality so completely when I don’t comprehend it at all.
Still, there is a new hope rising in the (far) east, and his name is Jeremy Lin.
If I told you three weeks ago that an economics graduate sleeping on his friend’s couch was going to ignite the sports world and dominate ESPN, you’d have probably wondered aloud how I even got a sports column to begin with. Yet here we are nearing the end of week two of Linsanity. With Amar’e Stoudemire already back and Carmelo Anthony set to return to the lineup later this week, people are buzzing with anticipation. Will the ascent of previously unheralded point guard Jeremy Lin continue? I don’t know. I am not a Knicks fan, so I am not personally invested in their success, but at this rate, Lin could be elected Secretary-General of the UN by the end of this weekend.
I don’t want to anoint him just yet, but there is certainly some substance to the hype surrounding Jeremy Lin. After all, in his first four starts, he has outscored every player since the history of the NBA merger of 1976. So how much hype is appropriate, you ask? That’s all a matter of perspective. Many pundits have said he is the Tim Tebow of basketball, but Tebow was a Heisman-winning quarterback with two national championships who was drafted in the first round. Lin was undrafted and received zero Division 1 scholarships. Tebow’s stats are underwhelming; Lin’s stats are just the opposite.
Some have gone so far as to say he is a 21st century Jackie Robinson. Lin may have grown up as a minority at the turn of the 21st century, but Jackie Robinson was truly discriminated against. He surely would not have been allowed to attend Harvard. Lin may be a cultural phenomenon, but Robinson is a historically significant icon. Let’s slow that bus down just a little bit.
Still, as an Asian Harvard grad who wanted to play in the NBA, I’m guessing Lin knows a thing or two about unfair judgment. He’s no Robinson, but it’s reasonable to assume Linsanity hasn’t always been quite so, well, insane. These scouts have gotten so use to seeing a certain type of mould at combines, and let’s face facts. Jeremy Lin is not that mould.
It shouldn’t matter what you look like. In 2012, I would hope a player is judged not by the color of their skin, but by the content of their game.
But what do I know? I’m just a stupid kid.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
What the CAA and Big 12 Have in Common
Happy Lupercalia to you all, may you enjoy high testosterone and estrogen levels.
On this wonderful day of random girls walking around with flowers and even larger than normal amounts of completely obnoxious PDA, I put a simple question to you:
What do the Big 12 and Colonial Athletic Association have in common? Anyone? Anybody?
Let's start with the BXII, who just got some pretty great news: Morgantown, WV is almost heaven. The 304 is officially cheering for a Big 12 team (unless you're in Huntington), as West Virginia and the Big East have officially announced their 20-million dollar divorce. WVU will pay 11 million, and the Big 12 will pick up the rest of the bar tab. And it's that simple. Facebook relationship statuses have been changed. The Mountaineers and the Big East are no more.
Fresh off the heels of that news, WVU's new conference was quick (and I mean lightning fast) to release their 2012 football schedule, complete with TCU and WVU's entire conference roadmap. Though most of it had already been finalized, the West Virginia court issues were considerably slowing things down. Now the schedule can be completely finalized with the Mountaineers' games present and accounted for. WVU plays a fairly balanced schedule next fall. Notable games:
9/29 (B12 opener): Baylor @ West Virginia
10/6: West Virginia @ Texas
11/3 TCU @ West Virginia
11/10 West Virginia @ Oklahoma State
11/17 Oklahoma @ West Virginia
Like I said, it's pretty balanced. In fact, it's downright favorable, with WVU's overall schedule featuring seven home games. Not bad for your premiere in a new conference.
Now, regarding the November 10 matchup of West Virginia and Oklahoma State:
1. It's actually not that farfetched to think WVU could be undefeated in early November (only two road games in conference, Texas and Texas Tech, plus Marshall, JMU, and Maryland all at home)
2. You're watching the two most prolific offenses on college football next year
3. It's Dana Holgorsen's return to the school and team he formerly coached.
All that adds up to one thing: buy your tickets now for college gameday in Stillwater, Oklahoma on November 10, 2012.
For the Big 12 complete schedule, click here.
For WVU's complete schedule, click here.
Now, onto the CAA. Remember them? They're that SEC-like conference of Division 1AA football and that basketball conference that has had two separate final four teams in the last five seasons. They are the conference that JMU is in, and that I must partially cover in an actual newspaper and not this online soapbox. What's that, my non-captive audience? You want to know what's going on with the CAA before The Breeze tells you on Thursday? Yeah, okay, I guess I can do that.
The Colonial has just recently (as in, information released in the last 24 hours) signed a TV deal with NBC's new sports broadcasting channel. You know, the one I frequently trash on twitter becuase it'll probably never be as big as ESPN? Yeah, that one. And by TV deal, I mean five years of the most extensive coverage the CAA has ever, bold italicized underlined EVER, had. The deal not only covers national coverage of football and men's basketball, but also additional regional coverage of multiple other sports.
The CAA is the first conference on any level to sign with NBC. I have learned from very credible sources how difficult it has been for JMU and the CAA to negotiate media rights with ESPN. For a conference that has been wildly successful in the last 5-10 years, they certainly don't get respected like it. So yes, take this as a wag of the finger- probably the middle one- toward ESPN. And rightfully so. We've taken are business elsewhere, and Adam Smith wouldn't have it any other way.
So what do the CAA and Big 12 have in common?
Well, they're both random girls walking around with bouquets of flowers. Happy Valentine's Day, CAA/Big 12. It's sure to be a memorable one.
On this wonderful day of random girls walking around with flowers and even larger than normal amounts of completely obnoxious PDA, I put a simple question to you:
What do the Big 12 and Colonial Athletic Association have in common? Anyone? Anybody?
Let's start with the BXII, who just got some pretty great news: Morgantown, WV is almost heaven. The 304 is officially cheering for a Big 12 team (unless you're in Huntington), as West Virginia and the Big East have officially announced their 20-million dollar divorce. WVU will pay 11 million, and the Big 12 will pick up the rest of the bar tab. And it's that simple. Facebook relationship statuses have been changed. The Mountaineers and the Big East are no more.
Fresh off the heels of that news, WVU's new conference was quick (and I mean lightning fast) to release their 2012 football schedule, complete with TCU and WVU's entire conference roadmap. Though most of it had already been finalized, the West Virginia court issues were considerably slowing things down. Now the schedule can be completely finalized with the Mountaineers' games present and accounted for. WVU plays a fairly balanced schedule next fall. Notable games:
9/29 (B12 opener): Baylor @ West Virginia
10/6: West Virginia @ Texas
11/3 TCU @ West Virginia
11/10 West Virginia @ Oklahoma State
11/17 Oklahoma @ West Virginia
Like I said, it's pretty balanced. In fact, it's downright favorable, with WVU's overall schedule featuring seven home games. Not bad for your premiere in a new conference.
Now, regarding the November 10 matchup of West Virginia and Oklahoma State:
1. It's actually not that farfetched to think WVU could be undefeated in early November (only two road games in conference, Texas and Texas Tech, plus Marshall, JMU, and Maryland all at home)
2. You're watching the two most prolific offenses on college football next year
3. It's Dana Holgorsen's return to the school and team he formerly coached.
All that adds up to one thing: buy your tickets now for college gameday in Stillwater, Oklahoma on November 10, 2012.
For the Big 12 complete schedule, click here.
For WVU's complete schedule, click here.
Now, onto the CAA. Remember them? They're that SEC-like conference of Division 1AA football and that basketball conference that has had two separate final four teams in the last five seasons. They are the conference that JMU is in, and that I must partially cover in an actual newspaper and not this online soapbox. What's that, my non-captive audience? You want to know what's going on with the CAA before The Breeze tells you on Thursday? Yeah, okay, I guess I can do that.
The Colonial has just recently (as in, information released in the last 24 hours) signed a TV deal with NBC's new sports broadcasting channel. You know, the one I frequently trash on twitter becuase it'll probably never be as big as ESPN? Yeah, that one. And by TV deal, I mean five years of the most extensive coverage the CAA has ever, bold italicized underlined EVER, had. The deal not only covers national coverage of football and men's basketball, but also additional regional coverage of multiple other sports.
The CAA is the first conference on any level to sign with NBC. I have learned from very credible sources how difficult it has been for JMU and the CAA to negotiate media rights with ESPN. For a conference that has been wildly successful in the last 5-10 years, they certainly don't get respected like it. So yes, take this as a wag of the finger- probably the middle one- toward ESPN. And rightfully so. We've taken are business elsewhere, and Adam Smith wouldn't have it any other way.
So what do the CAA and Big 12 have in common?
Well, they're both random girls walking around with bouquets of flowers. Happy Valentine's Day, CAA/Big 12. It's sure to be a memorable one.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Rant Time: Shaka Smart's Comments On the Mark
Eleven NCAA tournament bids, three Sweet 16 appearances, and two Final Four trips.
Any guesses on what I’m talking about?
That’s the combined achievements of George Mason, Old Dominion, and Virginia Commonwealth in the NCAA tournament in the last ten years. Just let that sink in- eleven, three, and two from three Mid- Majors in the same state.
Now let’s compare that to the two “Power Conference” teams from that same state. Virginia Tech and Virginia have combined for two bids to the Big Dance in the last ten years. That means that in the last decade, Virginia CAA schools have as many final four runs as Virginia ACC schools have NCAA bids. That’s pretty telling.
So I can’t really blame VCU coach Shaka Smart for stepping up Monday and announcing to the world that he believes “the best programs in the state [of Virginia] are in the CAA, and it’s not even close.” What? Cue the media uproar. How dare he blaspheme the ACC like that! After all, the ACC is the media darling of Dick Vitale and sportscasters everywhere. Does Smart think he can say whatever he wants just because he went to one measly little Final Four?
Well, yeah. Especially when what he is saying has the advantage of being entirely true. Last time I checked, North Carolina and Duke are the only ACC programs that have really been nationally relevant over the last six or eight years. According to my globe, those schools aren’t in Virginia.
I like the program that Tony Bennett is building at UVA. The Cavaliers are back in the national rankings, and they have been a more consistent #3 option in the ACC this year than Florida State. I think Bennett will build a program that will remain relevant for some time. However, if we’re talking about what programs have been doing in the past few years, then the boys in Charlottesville blue haven’t done much of anything recently. The team in Blacksburg has probably done even less. Don’t forget, eleven and two.
In an age where postseason results are all that seem to matter anymore, VCU, ODU, and Mason have entirely outperformed their supposed big brothers. Some people might argue that a comparison between the two groups is unfair because of the level of competition each school must endure in conference play, but think about it. ACC schools like UVA and Tech must play Duke, UNC, and each other. After that, there have been about two more average teams and around six other below average teams, to put it nicely. People think highly of the ACC because it is a storied conference, but look at their recent results. In a twelve team conference, they have only averaged about five teams per year. That’s 40% of the conference. Compared to other power conferences like the Big 12 and Big East who regularly get close to 75% of their conference in, the ACC is not nearly as deep. Even the CAA—a mid-major conference!—managed three bids (25% of the conference) in last year’s NCAA tourney. Who were those teams, I wonder? It was George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, and Old Dominion, and they combined for six wins. Stop me when this is starting to sound like a broken record.
I really just don’t understand the outrage and controversy surrounding Smart’s statements though. The “controversial comments” made headlines up and down the east coast and even trended regionally on twitter Monday afternoon. CAA coaches have since come out and defended his statements, but other coaches like Bennett still seemed upset. They seemed to think that the comments were unfair to the basketball programs at the University of Richmond, UVA, and Virginia Tech.
The only injustice I see is the unfair playing field that recruiting takes place on.
Head coaches like Tony Bennett and Virginia Tech’s Seth Greenberg get to tell recruits to come play for them because people love the Atlantic Coast Conference. They will be watched on TV. ESPN exclusively pays millions and millions of dollars to conferences like the ACC because of the status quo that has been established. The ACC is a “good conference,” even though results from the last decade might suggest that it’s overrated and full of bottom feeders. The CAA, meanwhile, must fight and scrap for the most marginal of television rights. Whereas the ACC has their own night carved out on ESPN (Sunday Night ACC basketball) in addition to countless other televised games, the CAA has virtually no bargaining power regarding their own television broadcasting schedule. ESPN will choose three or four Colonial conference games that they would like to televise, and that’s really all the CAA will be awarded despite being arguably the most successful mid-major conference of the last five years. The conference continues to succeed in spite of ESPN’s coverage, not because of it. This plays right into the hands of the power conference teams, who continue to ride the success of their conferences instead of the strength of their own programs.
So if these power schools can ride the benefits of their conference for recruiting, why shouldn’t Shaka Smart? Why shouldn’t Mason head coach Paul Hewitt or ODU coach Blaine Taylor? By extension, why can’t Matt Brady? The answer is that they can and should. The CAA has outclassed the other Virginia programs of the last five years, and yeah—it’s not that close. It’s time that people start recognizing that.
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