If you follow my stuff on CAAhoops.com, then you saw my CAA tournament preview earlier this week. I stand by the notion that the CAA needs it's best teams -- for my money: Towson, William & Mary, and Delaware, in that order -- to win this weekend and represent in the NCAA tournament. A Sweet 16 run and 17,000 replays of Marcus Thornton draining a half-court buzzer-beater brings a significant amount of credibility back to the League. Which is nice, since so much of it walked out the door with VCU and George Mason.
All that being said, it's tournament time, and what's "best" rarely happens. So let's predict the future, shall we?
Quarterfinals:
Delaware 77, Hofstra 74
This is an interesting matchup from a momentum standpoint. Delaware is the top seed, but they're not exactly trending up at the right time. Meanwhile, Hofstra is the lowest seed after disposing of a pretty awful Wilmington team last night. Hofstra is playing their second game in 18 hours, which is a pretty obvious difference-maker. But don't be surprised if the Pride keep this closer than you thought they would. They're luke-warm right now.
Drexel 52, Northeastern 50
Excuse me if I can't get excited for this uber-sexy matchup between half-broken teams. I love Frantz Massenat's game, and I enjoy watching Bruiser Flint coach. Aside from that, this will be a game that's probably pretty hard to watch.
Towson 65, JMU 61 (OT)
Towson is the best team in the CAA and my pick to win this tournament. Let me make that clear before I jump down the what-if JMU rabbit hole.
Now, on to wishful thinking. The only thing that keeps this game is close is the un-suspension of Andre Nation, whose defensive abilities and big-play potential force Towson to rely on Benimon for offense. If Nation can come up with a handful of big plays, Semenov can get start connecting from downtown, and Cooke can be the streaky scorer he was early in the season... if all that happens, and JMU limits turnovers, they have a chance. But that's a lot of what-ifs, and I have way too much faith in the things that Towson does well to put my stock in JMU. But hold on for the 2014-2015 season, kids. It's gonna be fun.
College of William & Mary 71, College of Charleston 59
If this wasn't Charleston's first year in the league, I'd seriously consider picking them in the upset here. In the two games these guys played this year, the Tribe won the first because they shot over 50% from behind the arc. In the second game, in Charleston, the Tribe shot 13% from behind the arc. If this third match-up turns out to be somewhere right in the middle of those two numbers -- say, 33% -- then I like Charleston. They have a clear advantage in the rebounding department, and if they can avoid cheap fouls, could crash the glass and keep Rusthoven frustrated inside. He's more of a finesse, shoot-the-11-footer, do-it-all big guy than a grinder like Benimon, anyway.
But I wonder if the moment might be too big for Charleston here. Far away from home, in an arena they've never played in, in the first year of a new conference tournament, without a go-to guy, playing in the nightcap. And I don't believe they can avoid cheap fouls, either. So I'm going with no-he-did-not-just-hit-another-three Marcus Thornton and the Tribe. There's not too many Virginia schools left to cheer for anyway.
Semifinals
Drexel 60, Delaware 59
We know Drexel can beat Delaware. It's already happened once this year. And I just have a gut feeling that the Hens aren't going to show up this year in Baltimore. Drexel's forwards dominate UD, and Drexel moves onto the championship round, where they probably don't have enough left in the tank to muster a final win.
Towson 74, William & Mary 67
Even if the Tribe manage to outlast Charleston, they're going to be beat up inside. That's not exactly the state you want to be if you have to face the nation's leading Double-Double producer. Benimon has a monster game, completely outshines Rusthoven, and the pseudo-home-team Tigers survive a fiendish late-game rally from Marcus Thornton, who walks off the court satisfied knowing that he is all but certain to be the 2014 CAA Preseason Player of the Year.
Championship Matchup: Towson vs Drexel
Towson dominates Drexel in front of a sold-out crowd. Jerrelle Benimon scores 18 points and pulls down 12 rebounds for his 22nd double-double. Towson takes the championship, two years removed from being the worst team in college basketball, and looks primed for an unsuspecting Sweet 16 run.
Towson 68, Drexel 52
