New Year, New College Basketball season... New Consortium.
Last year, I put together a few well-written friends & colleagues of mine from various media outlets to talk about the state of JMU basketball. It was a popular segment, so here we are again for the third installation.
Currently, the Dukes are three games below .500. Despite the subpar record, the Dukes are 1-0 in Colonial Athletic Association play, and they have the opportunity to improve to 2-0 tonight when they play at the College of Charleston. CAA newcomer Charleston has the rather unenviable task of containing a young JMU sophomore guard who'll be playing in his first game of the season after being suspended for the first 15. His name is Andre Nation. Maybe you've heard of him.
That's the landscape thus far. Now, for today's bloggers.
This year, the consortium returns with some new and exciting names. We lead off, as we often do, with Breeze men's basketball beat writer and WXJM Sports Director Stephen Proffitt. Read his excellent work in the Breeze every Monday or Thursday, or find him on Twitter @JStheProffitt. Additionally, his sister followed me last night. I consider this to be newsworthy information.
Second on the panel are the esteemed members of JMU Sports Blog (@JMUsportsblog). If you don't know who Rob and Todd are, what are you even doing here? Read their stuff religiously at jmusportsblog.com. Or, you know, continue to live in the dark ages. It's your call.
In the coveted third spot we have George Nicholls, acting moderator and editor-in-chief of CAAhoops. George has been instrumental to the success of CAAhoops since Michael Litos' departure from the site a little over a year ago. You can find George and his writers (which, don't forget, includes me!) @CAAhoops.
Batting cleanup is James Irwin (@irwinjj), noted JMU graduate and author of the book Midnight in Chatanooga: The game, the team, and the dream behind the rise of JMU football. You remember that Kindle you got for Christmas? I think you know where I'm going with this.
And, of course, I am merely Chase Kiddy. Alright, let's get to it.
1. After grinding out a 60-55 road win in Wilmington at Saturday night, JMU has officially completed half of its regular season with a 6-9 record. How would you grade the first half of the Dukes' season?
Stephen: C+. I find this as a neutral grade, with the + being the optimism I have for conference play and the return of Andre Nation Tuesday night (#jan7). Matt Brady had never lost more than five games in a row at JMU until this season when the Dukes lost six straight. The team is extremely young, but it's a work in progress, as usual. A long-term investment. But that's not a bad thing. The backcourt is averaging in double figures (Ron Curry, 11.9, Charles Cooke, 15.7). Cooke has scored 20 plus points in five games this season. He's really heating up, netting 24 against UNCW Saturday night. Brady has done well with what he's had so far with some minor glitches and another strange Andrey Semenov injury in November. I'll finish by saying who needs grades anyway, at least that's what I tell my home at the end of each semester...
JMUSB: C+. We weren't expecting JMU to light the world on fire given all of the senior leadership they were forced to replace. And things were made even more difficult once Nation was suspended. Even with those hurdles to overcome and the fact that the Dukes are the second youngest team in the country, the early season schedule wasn't so challenging that .500 ball should have been out of the question. After a really rough patch where nobody other than Charles Cooke could buy a bucket, JMU has righted the ship somewhat. Cooke has the makings of an All CAA type player and Curry has shown glimpses of real scoring potential (prior to his 0-for performance in Wilmington at least). It's tough to tell what Brady has in the freshman, but we're optimistic and think Jackson Kent could develop into a legit player. A winning record and at least one of the freshmen showing star potential would have been an "A" performance. We think C+ is pretty fair based on actual events.
George: I'd give them a B-. Honestly, before Nation got suspended I was expecting the record to look something like this. Considering that the team has seven freshmen, that Semenov, Cooke and Curry are all shooting below 30% from three, and that 13 of the first 15 games were played on the road/at neutral sites, I'm okay with where they are.
James: C+. At times, it's been real painful watching this team try to score points. They've dropped a few games in real disappointing fashion (missing 19 free throws in a four-point home loss to Detroit and getting blown out of the gym by a mediocre Valparasio team being two of them). The Dukes completely flat-lined in the second half against UNC-Greensboro, and that's a really bad loss when you consider only four of UNC-G's seven wins are against Division I teams. Andrey Semenov (44% from 3-point range the last three seasons) has really struggled from distance. But Charles Cooke has been terrific, and the Dukes are playing pretty well defensively. They don't look like a team defending a title right now, but they haven't gone into the tank either.
Chase: B-. If you've read these before, you know I'm always the apologist of the group. That being said, it seems unfair not to grade this particular JMU team against realistic expectations. This team basically went on a tour of the lower 48 states over the last two months. More freshmen on the roster than home games on the schedule. Like, way more. Semenov has been up and down, Nation has been riding the pine (metaphorically speaking; I'm pretty sure he's not even allowed to sit on the bench), and still this team shows major signs of life. A 6-9 record is far from lighting the world on fire, but the Dukes are improving, learning from their mistakes, and trending upward at the right moment. For now, that seems to be enough to offset at least some of the bad stuff, like getting embarassed at Valpo, exposed at UVA, and dropping shoulda-coulda-woulda games to Detroit and Sam Houston State.
2. Let's get to what everyone wants to talk about. Tonight's game in Charleston marks game #16 for the Dukes, which means the return of Andre Nation. How much of a difference-maker is Nation once he's back on the court?
SP: #jan7 ::insert purple devil emoji:: The most interesting person in all of my social media is back. He's the most athletic player on the team, and arguably the best all around player. I'm a little worried about how much he will try do to in order to make up for his absence. Brady has said he will need to accept the role he's given. He doesn't want Nation coming in and trying to run the show after being suspended for the first half. It may take a game or two, maybe three but he will mesh back in. Curry/Nation/Cooke has the potential to be extremely dangerous. They showed last year that if they can run, they can sacrifice getting beat on the glass and in the paint night after night. I think the flow and I hate to say it, but swagger will be there with Nation on the court. While we were assigned to asses the analytics of on-court performance, Nation's personality off the court is complex, and needs to be mentioned. He's loud, he wears his emotions on his sleeves. This can hurt JMU, but more times than not, it brings positivity and confidence to a young basketball team. I'm optimistic and very excited.
JMUSB: Hopefully a huge difference. Thus far, we've seen Brady rely on the zone defense a lot. It's been better during the recent hot streak, but there were times when it wasn't very effective. Everyone seems to be focused on what Nation will bring to the table offensively, but he's one of the top on-the-ball defenders in the CAA. His return should give Brady the freedom to mix up defensive looks and rely less on the zone.
On offense, Nation's athleticism and pure scoring ability should open things up for everyone. Charles Cooke has emerged as the go-to guy in Andre's absence. That will probably continue for the first few games after Nation's return. Once Andre gets back into the swing of things, we expect it to more of a dual-threat type attack where both guys lead the offense together. Both guys are good enough that defenses have to adjust to stop them. If the other guys, particularly Semenov, Kent, and Curry, can exploit opportunities when Andre and Charles draw extra defenders, there should be plenty of easy buckets for the Dukes.
GN: I expect that Nation’s impact will be substantial. He’ll provide Brady (I assume Brady’s reluctance to recruit another point guard is a vote of confidence for Nation) with another guard to bring the ball up the floor. His basketball IQ and defensive prowess give him a pretty high floor, and his ability to attack the rim should create better looks from the perimeter.
Best-case scenario, he makes good on his promising end to last season, and joins Cooke as one of the offense’s two primary options. At worst, he becomes the fourth option on offense, and his defense helps the Dukes create an extra transition bucket each game. We’ll probably see something in the middle, and he should be a consistent double-digit scorer. People worry that he’ll try to do too much, but he’s not a selfish player. It’s important to remember that Nation had a prep year before college, so he’s not your average sophomore. If the offense we saw in the NCAA Tournament is a sign of things to come, his impact will be massive.
JI: Nation's suspension put the Dukes into triage before the season even started, leaving them with very little firepower on offense. Cooke has been dragging this group to the halfway point with his hot shooting. Nation adds a needed offensive weapon, he's a great on-ball defender, and he's probably the most athletic guy on the floor. In chess, this would be like losing your queen before the game started, and then being allowed to put it back on the board at the halfway point. Remember, Nation was suspended, not injured, so he should be ready to go physically. His return makes JMU a much deeper team, though there may be an adjustment period as Matt Brady works him back into the rotation.
CK: Nation is a completely different type of player than Devon Moore, but right now, the thing that makes them so similar is Nation's ability to tie together all of the other assets JMU has. Nation's basketball IQ, his physical abilities, and his balance as a scorer demands respect from the other team's defense. At times, that might demand double teams. But even when it doesn't, Nation's game opens up Semenov for the corner and wing 3-attempts he wants to take so badly. It opens up pockets in the elbow for Bessick and Vodanovich. It opens up some more room for Cooke and even Curry to cut to the basket. And on defense, it provides a hard anchor for JMU to work around that they might not have had before. I expect we're about to see a pretty significant jump in most of JMU's defensive metrics.
3. Besides Nation, who is the most important player on the team going forward through conference play?
SP: Ron Curry. In brief, I say this because of consistency. After UVA, talking to him, he was pumped to be 'the point guard.' He wasn't playing behind Devon Moore any longer. The offense was his to run. In the second game of the season at NIU, he went off for 19 points. That's a "hey I'm pretty good at this whole PG thing." I was extremely impressed, although I was subjected to just the audio for the game (like 3/4 of this season). Aren't we spoiled in this era? But I digress. 16 points here, 8 there, 23 here, 7 there. At an 11.9 average, I would like to see him find better offensive consistency, which I think he will. Cooke has found his groove and I believe Curry is very close to being there. Ron Curry is the key to this team's consistency and rhythm.
JMUSB: Lots of people will point to Ron Curry and talk about how crucial his development at the point will be. That's definitely true. The firmer he grasps the offense, the better off the Dukes will be. And Cooke and Semenov will definitely be relied on to help carry the scoring load. We're going to throw a slight curve ball though and say Taylor Bessick is the most important player on the team in CAA play. The Dukes are going to see stronger players in the paint in CAA play, than they did in the non-conference schedule. Bessick needs to be able to pull down boards, play strong defense, and stay out of foul trouble so he can play deep into games. And if he could simply finish more of the easy looks he so often gets, that'd be great too.
GN: When I read this I was so eager to say Ron Curry. The 33-point shellacking at Valpo sways me to believe that Curry might have the most important role on the team, but Nation’s return could prevent him from posting the gaudy numbers we’ve seen lately. If JMU’s going to sneak into the CAA’s top-tier, Andrey Semenov has to come alive. In eight CAA games from February 2012, Semenov average 4+ three-pointers per game on a scintillating 57.8% from behind the arc. He’s simply too good of a shooter to only hit 29.5% from downtown (as he is this season). I expect Semenov to keep firing away, and believe he’ll start connecting more frequently.
JI: I'd like to give you three guys, not just one. But I'll play by the rules. It's Taylor Bessick (Tom Vodanovich and Ivan Lukic were the other two guys). JMU's five best players are Ron Curry, Nation, Semenov, Cooke and Bessick, and they'd ideally be playing 25-35 minutes each. That lineup is big and physical around the perimeter, but fairly undersized inside. If Bessick can hold his own on the blocks, he allows JMU to play with this smaller, faster, more athletic lineup and create mismatch hell for other teams. Remember the CAA title game? It was JMU's physical size outside that overwhelmed Northeastern's offense in the first half.
CK: On paper, it's probably Taylor Bessick. I love his tools, and I'm a big fan of his potential. Unfortunately, I think his physical game is a little bit ahead of his mental game. When you watch him play, he's still young and a little bit raw emotionally; he can't shake his own mistakes off very easily yet. That's why you see him get in foul trouble so often. One silly foul early on turns into another one 30 seconds later. If I had a dollar for every time I've seen Brady have to adjust his game plan mid-game because Bessick has 2-3 fouls by halftime, I could finance the new Convocation Center myself.
So with Bessick still coming along and the forward position being handled by committee, I'm going with Ron Curry. JMU's three-guard set of Cooke, Nation and Curry is almost definitely going to be the starting rotation for the remainder of the year. Nation's return takes the pressure off Curry to be a scorer, so we're likely to see more of Curry, the distributor, instead of Curry, the reluctant scorer. How he develops as a dime-guy and ball handler-- particularly for late in the season, when JMU will see more of the dreaded press, which it has never fared well against-- could ultimately spell how successful this team is in the postseason.
4. What's the ceiling for this team?
SP: In the nine-team CAA, the ceiling for JMU is another trip to the NCAA tournament with an automatic bid in Baltimore come March. I don't see how anyone could really say otherwise and I'll confidently say that I knew they could win that tournament last year given the circumstances. I even predicted it on my blog. That is the beauty of conference tournaments with automatic bids. The CAA will most likely be a one-bid league so teams will be quite 'crabby' in Baltimore, but JMU has proven it can do the deed and slay the dragon. While young, the Dukes could find themselves back in the big dance yet again. I endorse this message as crazy as it may sound.
JMUSB: Can we say, getting hot and stealing the tourney in Baltimore? Because that would be our best guess. Based on what we've seen thus far, this doesn't have the makings of a team that is going to contend for the regular season title. They don't strike us as consistent enough and they haven't shot particularly well from the outside. But the CAA preseason favorites don't seem to be as good as advertised. And Charles Cooke seems to be way better than advertised. This team will have at least a puncher's chance against every team in the CAA. They're capable of beating every team in the league. Unfortunately, they also look capable of losing to any team in the league.
GN: Do I think the Dukes have the talent to rattle off three in a row and win another CAA Championship? I do. But more than half of the players on the roster are freshmen, and I’m worried about their interior defense against the Barus, Benimons, and Beasthovens of the CAA. I just think they’ll be hard-pressed to do more than spring an upset (maybe two) in the conference tournament. JMU will probably be matched up with a higher-seeded opponent in Saturday’s quarterfinals. If I told you before the season that the Dukes would lose in Sunday’s semifinals, you probably wouldn’t complain.
JI: The ceiling is a defense of their CAA title, and probably a 15 or 16 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Dukes lack size inside, but if Bessick, Vodanovich and Lukic can provide quality minutes, JMU is a dangerous team. They want to go small because they'll take the physical play of their guards (Curry, Cooke and Nation) over any other group of guards in the CAA. That also means Semenov can stay outside, in that tweener 3-4 role he prefers. He's 6-foot-7, which means his best looks at the basket are when he's away from the hoop being guarded by smaller defenders.
CK: An exact replica of last season. JMU has too many bad losses at this point, and the CAA is way too watered down, to get anything other than a 16 seed as a potential NCAA team. The best we can hope as fans is a nice regular season finish, a CAA tournament championship, and a shallow First Four win preceding a bad loss to a No. 1 seed. The big stuff comes next year, when the freshmen are sophomores, the sophomores are juniors, and the schedule is designed for success from the very first game. This has been a long-term investment from the beginning.
5. For now, JMU owns a one-game advantage over the rest of the CAA. When the dust settles in March, will JMU finish the regular season in the top third, middle third, or bottom third of the conference?
SP: I'll go with the middle third. I'll say they finish fifth. They have a very challenging three week stretch beginning January 15. Home and home's with Northeastern and William & Mary as well as Charleston at home and Towson on the road. These are six really challenging games that could make or break the season. Win four, they're solid. Win three, ok. Win two, I'd be a little worried. While it's speculation, the good teams (NE, Drexel, WM, Towson) will rise to the top. I think JMU will come in right behind them if all runs smoothly in ole' Rocktown.
JMUSB: Middle third. And that wouldn't be too bad all things considered. Lots of people, most notably Andre Nation, took great offense to JMU being picked to finish 7th in the CAA. That might be a little harsh, but it's not really a sign of disrespect. To the contrary, it might be a sign of how much respect the powers that be respected JMU's seniors from last year, particularly A.J. Davis and Devon Moore. We expect the Towson Tigers to right the ship now that CAA play is starting. Jerrelle Benimon alone makes it almost impossible that they won't. And both Drexel and Delaware have depth and experience that will make them tough outs. Throw in Marcus Thornton and the Tribe and you've got a bunch of tough teams battling for the top third. It might be slightly optimistic, but we still see JMU finishing somewhere in that second tier of teams in the middle third.
GN: What I love about a nine-team conference and a 16-game schedule is that everyone gets to play twice. The Dukes already stole one on the road at Trask, and I think they'll have a chance to get maybe one or two others on the road. More often than not, I think they'll defend home-court, where they really seem to get the fast-break offense going.
The last four games on the schedule – home versus UNCW, Drexel, and Towson before ending the regular season at Hofstra – present an interesting mix of bottom-feeders and contenders, and a huge opportunity to build momentum down the stretch. I expect the standings to be a jumbled mess, kind of like the race for the AFC’s final playoff spot (where one team finishes a game up on four others). They might be kind of like William & Mary last season, which means they’d head to Baltimore as a dangerously enigmatic team. Ultimately, I see them finishing in the middle third of the league (around 7-9 in the conference).
JI: Middle third. JMU finally gets some home games (they had two in the first 15 games of the season), but they better win now against Northeastern, William & Mary and Charleston. Starting Feb. 4, JMU begins a three-week stretch in which it plays Drexel, Delaware and Towson in five of seven games. How the Dukes fare against those three teams likely determines whether the Dukes are a CAA title contender. They're probably heading for anywhere from eight to 10 conference wins, which would put them right around .500 overall when the conference tournament opens in March.
CK: I'm envisioning a third or fourth-place finish. That's almost certainly optimistic... but then again, maybe it's not. The problem with JMU usually isn't lack of talent, but lack of performing (see also: shooting, foul line). Last year, the Dukes won at home whenever it suited them, but couldn't seem to beat Grandview Nursing Home on the road. If JMU can just mange to be a .500 team on the road in conference play, this is a team that can sneak into the top 3 regular season teams. Easier said than done, sure. But we'll get another great chance to see if they can beat less-talented teams on the road Tuesday night in Charleston.
