Friday, March 8, 2013

2013 CAA Tournament Primer

(The following is an expanded version of a piece appearing on CAAHoops, CAAZone, and other Colonial Athletic Association hubs around the internet.)

The CAA tournament is developing a nasty little reputation as what might be the best conference tournament in the country that nobody west of Appalachia knows about. And we're less than 24 hours from throwing this party all over again.

But first, let's recognize some realities. The CAA, as a mid-major brand, is losing ground just as fast as it gained it. VCU, a former staple of the Colonial postseason, is now an Atlantic 10 commodity and a nationwide household name. The shell that once was Old Dominion basketball has now played its final game as a Colonial Team. Georgia State is out the door as well, though coach Hunter once said after a game that he might stop in Richmond just to stare longingly at the Richmond Coliseum.

That's all prologue to the APR penalties leveled at UNCW and Towson. The Tigers, who just capped what is literally the greatest single-year program turnaround in Division 1 men's basketball history, would have as good a shot as anyone at hoisting the goods in Richmond on Monday night. Instead, both teams are sitting at home, stuck playing pick-up at the YMCA and watching Law and Order reruns.

With all those familiar faces gone, you might think this CAA tournament feels a little watered down.

Yeah, watered down with flaming vodka.

Remember how the 2012 NBA season felt, with its compressed regular season and streaky hot teams? Welcome to the 2013 CAA championship, where literally any team can win it all. How about the fightin' Sherrod Wrights, who have that one really good player... what's his name again? If seeding holds, Northeastern could win its first CAA tournament title in league history. Or maybe the Tribe can shoot their way past JMU and into the finals conversation. Hey, third times the charm, right? (Mark Selig disagrees.)

Speaking of JMU, all of Harrisonburg must have let out a sigh of relief when they saw how their Dukes were seeded. For a team that never seems to catch a break -- at least not in the Matt Brady era anyway -- they sure caught some in this year's tournament. Teams on JMU's side of the 7-team bracket are a combined 0-5 against the Dukes this season, while 1-seed Northeastern, 4-seed Mason, and 5-seed Drexel are 4-1 against the Purple and Gold.

Does Murphy's Law have a converse? That's right, some of us paid attention in high school Geometry.

I don't typically find myself comparing NCAA basketball to FIFA soccer tournaments, but how about the Group of Death that's been created for the aforementioned Patriots, Dragons, and Huskies? Drexel split with George Mason during the regular season, so we're looking for a Round 3 tiebreaker... and, oh yeah, whoever wins the inevitable slugfest receives the unenviable task of upstaging Northeastern. Yeah, good luck with that one boys.

Truth be told though, the Huskies have looked a lot more mortal through the latter stages of the season. Though it looked almost indomitable in jumping out to a 12-1 start, Northeastern finished the season 2-3. Some people say it's not how you start, it's how you finish.

I don't know anyone that actually says that, but if I run into one in the next 48 hours, I'll be sure to ask them who they've got Sunday night. My guess is they'll bet against the Huskies. Old habits die hard.

Say what you want about the Huskies, but at least they have that first-round bye. Who knows what kind of factor fatigue could play in semifinal matchups.

And while we're on the topic of first-round byes, Delaware will play Hofstra in the opening round on Saturday!

No, I kid. A lot of fans are actually writing off the Pride this tournament, as the sort of exception that proves the "any team could win it" rule. But I'm here to tell you, don't count out the Pride. In their last three games, they handled ODU, nearly upended Delaware but lost by 1, and had Towson on the ropes down in Maryland, leading by as much as 10 early on before losing a close one 67-64. There's no question they could potentially make some noise in the CAA tournament.

Just like every other 20-something with a sports blog, I've got my opinions on who will take this year's tourney. But the truth is that this tournament is nothing short of a basketball equation shrouded in 100% Grade A American sports enigma. Anything can happen. That coveted auto-bid is as up for grabs as it ever was.

One things for certain, going into Saturday's opening rounds. There's only two types of basketball fans who'll be watching the CAA tournament this weekend:

People who have no idea what's going to happen, and bold-faced liars.






Round-by-Round Predictions

Now that I've postured about how this year's conference tourney is wildly unpredictable, I'm gonna work my magic and, well, predict it. If you need to familiarize yourself with the 2013 iteration of the conference bracket, you can find the link over at CAAsports.


Round 1:

George Mason vs Drexel:  Quick! Name a player from George Mason that isn't named Sherrod Wright!

Okay fine, I've used the same joke like ten times this season. But it's a classic, so why switch it up midseason? The painful truth for Fairfax Community College here is that any team that can lock down Sherrod Wright can lock down George Mason. The Patriots can go big(ish) in response to that type of gameplan, but the fact is that the Patriots are woefully inconsistent against teams that lock down the star junior guard. Drexel is one such team that matches up well.

Now, I want to give some credit to GMU here. They fought through a bad matchup to win in Philadelphia for a season split with Drexel. But I don't think lightning can strike twice. Drexel is finally starting to get healthy again, and Bruiser Flint is, in my humblest of opinions, the better coach here. So I'm taking the Dragons in an ugly, borderline unwatchable game.

Pick: Drexel


Delaware vs Hofstra: Look, Bruce Willis wasn't the only one that was a good boy scout. I did my good turn and pumped up the Pride. Ra-ra, black sheep, and something about corn. Or whatever.

I meant what I said -- I think Hofstra could potentially make some noise. Doesn't mean I'm picking them.

Pick: Delaware


JMU vs William & Mary: There's some stuff you just can't explain, like those weird winter rings around Richmond rocks near Belle Isle, how women make decisions, or what the hell type of planetary body Pluto is supposed to be. Equally deserving of belonging on this list: what goes through AJ Davis' head when he steps on a court with Marcus Thornton.

I know Davis has been lot the last half a dozen games of the season, but when he's played against the Pantless Griffins, he's just been downright stupid. Davis set a season-high with 27 the first time he played the Tribe this year, including shooting an Olympian 70% from behind the arc... and for an encore, all he managed was to drop a career-high 36 last weekend, the second-best individual scoring game of an CAA player all season, and more or less single handedly won the game for JMU. And if that sentence was a run-on, well, that's basically the only way to handle writing about AJ Davis right now. Load up on amphetamines and go from there.

Being a senior that has lived through some of the stuff that I have -- like, say, the CAA tournament's all-time greatest individual performance, just off the top of my head -- William & Mary scares the tar out of me. Moreso, in fact, than Delaware and Northeastern do, if we're being honest.

I felt rather foolish feeling that, to be honest. Until I told that to assistant coach and longtime Matt Brady mentor Mike Deane, and he didn't laugh me out of the room. So, hey! There's a win. Or at least a not-loss.

Whatever mythical deities AJ Davis is sacrificing small petting zoo animals to, KEEP DOING IT. IT'S WORKING. AND I'M SORRY I SAT NEXT TO YOU ON THE BUS THAT ONE TIME ALL AWKWARDLY WITHOUT SAYING ANYTHING. TOTALLY WON'T HAPPEN AGAIN.

Pick: JMU


Round 2: Semifinals

Drexel vs Northeastern: I really believe this game will be close. Drexel took NU to overtime in Philly early in the season, and they are a vastly superior team now than they were then. Look for Drexel to go big and pound the boards against a Huskies team that doesn't rebound particularly well -- though in their defense, their poor boarding numbers are largely a function of their great field goal percentage.

It's a shame this year's Drexel squad went through what it did. Injuries aside, it could have been a special team that sought vengeance for what I believe was a bit of an NCAA at large snub last year. Still, even with a retooled strategy and some momentum coming into the postseason, the Dragons run will end here. Northeastern shoots the ball, spreads the floor, and unlike Mason, ultimately has too many potential weapons out on the court at any given moment.

Pick: Northeastern


Delaware vs JMU: It would probably be a bit of an overstatement to say that JMU owns Delaware, but the chickens sure didn't pose much of a threat to the Dukes in Harrisonburg, and it's gonna require years of therapy to scratch the impression of Moore-to-Nation from the minds of those unfortunate souls clad in blue. Rest in Peace, old Joe Flacco. You were so much easier to make fun of.

While Rayshawn Goins almost definitely will not be a factor in the fast-pace, run-the-floor first round W&M game, I expect Goins to have a huge game should JMU and Delaware advance to play each other in the semi's. We're talking 15 & 15, maybe more. As Davis has gotten hot, teams have slowly started to forget about game-planning for Goins. The redshirt senior has owned Jamelle Hagins this season. Meanwhile, his teammate and fellow third team all-CAA honoree Devon Moore will likely lock down CAA leading scorer Devon Saddler in the second half with an effort level that could range anywhere from "swimming the English Channel in March" to "blowing up the second death star."

If Delaware wins this game, honestly, I'm not shocked. The Chicks have loads of offensive talent and are deserving of that second seed. But I've got a Kemba-wins-the-national-championship type of feeling here, and I'm gonna remain a homer. Unashamed.

Pick:  JMU


Round 3: Championship Matchup

Northeastern vs JMU: If you've been over to get JMUSB's take on this -- and I highly recommend you do, because they're great guys and, unlike me, totally grounded in realism -- you probably already know where this is going.

I've been saying it since about 9:01 PM on February 20. JMU played Northeastern to a draw in Boston; I've gotta think the table turns in our favor playing a championship matchup in Virginia. AJ Davis is on a role, JMU has seniors out the ass, and if prompted to actually play for something meaningful, I think the Dukes might actually find a higher gear than they've played with in my four years of being in Harrisonburg. Northeastern is a great team and they're guaranteed an NIT bid -- a tournament which they stand a great chance at winning. But similar to the last three Big East tournament champions, I think all signs point toward JMU stepping into the light just at the right moment and capturing lightning in a bottle.

Pick: JMU, 68-66.




I'll be neck-deep in press releases, statistics, and JMU baseball (wait, what?) for most of the weekend, but hit me on twitter with reactions. Get in on the discussion, and make sure you hash tag #caahoops.

And for more analysis regarding the CAA tournament than this lone ranger can provide you, sidle on over to caahoops.com and my friends there will hit you from all angles. Seriously, you'll be so overloaded with information and analysis, you'll almost wish you hadn't gone there at all.

Almost. But not quite. Stop being such a fifth grader, you L7 weeny.