Lots of great reader feedback from some new blog followers on last week's Sixth Man entry, so here we are again, previewing my Spurs' chances in the Western Conference Finals.
1. Which is more true?
A. The Spurs can win an NBA title with offense.
B. The Spurs' defensive shortcomings might be fatal.
It's A. Maybe this is my newly developed WVU-in-the-Big-12 mentality poking through where it doesn't belong, but you don't need to defend well when you can outscore everyone else. San Antonio had one of the highest scoring offenses in the Association back in the regular season, second only to the Denver Nuggests. There are too many scoring options- WAY too many- on this team for their defense to limit how high this team can achieve.
Is their defense as good as it was in heyday of the Tim Duncan era? Of course not. But it's not like they don't play any defense at all, either. The times, they are a changin. San Antonio will win this year behind a methodical approach on the other side of the ball.
2. Who means more to his team: James Harden or Manu Ginobili?
It's James Harden. I'm one to believe that Harden's Sixth Man Hardware, not to mention his midnight sonata with Metta World Mishaps' elbow, elevated him from a slightly underrated player to a drastically overhyped player who is talked about wayyyy too much these past few days. But the dude can still ball with the best of them, and he's a hugeplayer in this series for one main reason.
Manu is a nice deep threat and keys a lot of the spacing San Antonio uses to set up pick and roles and other aspects of their offense. But that's just the thing- he is one part of a dynamic offense that has so many other creaters and role-players. Oklahoma City's best two players are point-scoring dynamos, but other prominent team members (like Serge Ibaka) are more known for their defensive presence rather than their offensive abilities. Harden provides a go-to third guy for offense where no one else may exist. San Antonio doesn't have that problem.
3. How important is the difference in coaching experience?
I don't want to say what Popovich brings to the table is a non-factor... but it's basically a non-factor. Pops is probably the best coach in the NBA right now, but this game is chalk full of superstar players. Put ten guys on the hardwood and let em play. Coaching is only going to determine so much.
4. What's the key for OKC to win?
Russell Westbrook. Tony Parker called him about before the series- not in a brash, arrogant way but merely saying they needed to guard him because KD was gonna get his regardless of what they did. Westbrook, however, the Spurs feel they can stop. Or, equally as likely, the Spurs want him to think that they think they can stop him. Fun with jedi mind tricks, Tony parker is having.
If Westbrook plays well, doesn't create a sloppy mess, and makes good decisions on when to shoot himself vs when to distribute effectively, the Thunder are likely to control their turnovers and play efficiently. After that, it's a matter of using their youth as an advantage and tiring out Tim Duncan's beloved knees.
If, however, Westbrook tries to throw down the gauntlet and do too much (or too little, depending on how you want to look at it), he might become a turnover machine. Giving up extra possessions to a lethal offense like San Antonio is nothing but damning. The Thunder have to limit themselves to 14 turnovers or fewer per game. 15 or more, and they have a 0% chance of winning the series.
5. Who wins?
I've struggled with this pick evers since the beginning of the playoffs, because this series was inevitable.
Originally, I had the Thunder in 6. Then the Spurs in 7. Then the Spurs in 5. Then the Spurs in 6. Then the Thunder in 7. And now I just don't know.
But I'm going to say the Spurs in 6. As even as this series seems, I don't think the Thunder will win in San Antonio, at least initially. They may grab game 5 in a measure of desperation, especially if the Spurs pick up a game in OKC. But I think the Thunder's weaknesses play right into the Spurs' strengths, and though I think Kevin Durant is just an absolute monster on the court, I don't know where he will find the buckets around him to keep up with San Antonio's offense.
That of course gives me quite a dilemna- do I want to see my Spurs win the championship, or do I want to not hear another offeseason of whining and complaining and "see, I told you so's, Lebron James will never win a championship"'s.
Ah, who am I kidding. Let's go Spurs.
Sunday, May 27, 2012
Thursday, May 24, 2012
The Sixth Man: Pacers-Heat, Game 6
It's time for another segment of the Sixth Man. If you're new to the blog, this segment is a response to ESPN's 5-on-5 NBA commentary articles. Today, we're talking about the Miami Heat potentially closing out Indiana in tonight's game 6.
1. How do you expect the Pacers to respond in Game 6 after Larry Bird called them "soft" following Game 5?
In the grand scheme of things, I'm not sure Bird's comments matter. Lots of people seem to be referencing games 3 & 4 of the 1984 finals when Bird famously called his teammates sissies, but that was then and this is now. Responding after a game 3 loss is a lot different than responding in a game 6 loss with elimination on the line.
The Pacers are going home to Indy and have their backs against the walls- if they still need Larry Bird to fire them up, they're already doomed.
2. Fact or Fiction: We'll see two or more flagrant fouls in Game 6.
Fiction. The Heat can't afford to have any players ejected with their depleted-for-various-reasons depth, and the Pacers are surely concentrated less on tough-guy machismo. The refs will surely be calling anything that's remotely close to borderline flagrant, but I still think both teams keep it pretty clean.
3. Fact or Fiction: The Heat will really miss Udonis Haslem.
Fact. Absolute fact. It doesn't matter that Haslem has statistically been one of the worst performers in the entire playoffs this year, he's a forward on a team that's already sorely missing Chris Bosh. Haslem's (and rookie Dexter Pittman's) suspension leaves the Heat so desperate that they will actually need to activate players for their first career playoff games. Beyond that, Miami will need to rely on the particular talents of Joel Anthony, Ronny Turiaf, Juwan Howard, and Eddy Curry... also known as the inadequate, the too small, the arthritis-ridden, and the oh-good-grief.
4. Fact or Fiction: If Danny Granger is hobbled, the Pacers are done.
That's a fact. By my reckoning, Danny Granger's hobbling is pretty similar to Chris Bosh's injury. Danny Granger is a really important source of offense, so the Pacers will clearly miss that if he's 100%, but he's just as important for the general spacing of the team. Indiana wants to bang it around inside in the paint, but Granger's presence on the perimiter and even in the elbow forces defenses to respect the outside shooting of the Pacers. His ineffectiveness means that if Miami can lock Paul George down, they can spend the rest of their time focusing on the Paint.
Just as importantly, Granger can't really guard Lebron James at 150%, let alone 50-80%. Even on the road, an uninhibited Lebron James should scare the crap out of the home fans tonight.
Even if the Pacers win tonight, LBJ will be smelling the blood in the water if Granger is hobbled. He will close the series out in game 7. The Pacers will be done regardless- the only thing that will change is how many ECF games Dexter Pittman will need to sit, 1 or 2.
5. Fact or Fiction: Miami's Game 5 dominance will carry over.
Utter fiction. Even not if but WHEN Lebron James dominates both sides of the floor tonight, and even if Dwayne Wade has another huge game, the Heat's 5v2 quest just got even harder with the suspension of two more forwards. The Pacers are a physical team, which means forward is the position that the Heat need some depth and skill at. Without either, it's sure to be a low-scoring, ugly kind of game.
I predicted yesterday morning on twitter that the Heat would close the series out if Granger wasn't at 100%. That was, of course, before the two suspensions were announced. Still, with Lebron still in name-taking mode, I think this game will be a coin toss. Who will win? I can't say, though I'm leaning Pacers. Either way, don't expect a blowout.
1. How do you expect the Pacers to respond in Game 6 after Larry Bird called them "soft" following Game 5?
In the grand scheme of things, I'm not sure Bird's comments matter. Lots of people seem to be referencing games 3 & 4 of the 1984 finals when Bird famously called his teammates sissies, but that was then and this is now. Responding after a game 3 loss is a lot different than responding in a game 6 loss with elimination on the line.
The Pacers are going home to Indy and have their backs against the walls- if they still need Larry Bird to fire them up, they're already doomed.
2. Fact or Fiction: We'll see two or more flagrant fouls in Game 6.
Fiction. The Heat can't afford to have any players ejected with their depleted-for-various-reasons depth, and the Pacers are surely concentrated less on tough-guy machismo. The refs will surely be calling anything that's remotely close to borderline flagrant, but I still think both teams keep it pretty clean.
3. Fact or Fiction: The Heat will really miss Udonis Haslem.
Fact. Absolute fact. It doesn't matter that Haslem has statistically been one of the worst performers in the entire playoffs this year, he's a forward on a team that's already sorely missing Chris Bosh. Haslem's (and rookie Dexter Pittman's) suspension leaves the Heat so desperate that they will actually need to activate players for their first career playoff games. Beyond that, Miami will need to rely on the particular talents of Joel Anthony, Ronny Turiaf, Juwan Howard, and Eddy Curry... also known as the inadequate, the too small, the arthritis-ridden, and the oh-good-grief.
4. Fact or Fiction: If Danny Granger is hobbled, the Pacers are done.
That's a fact. By my reckoning, Danny Granger's hobbling is pretty similar to Chris Bosh's injury. Danny Granger is a really important source of offense, so the Pacers will clearly miss that if he's 100%, but he's just as important for the general spacing of the team. Indiana wants to bang it around inside in the paint, but Granger's presence on the perimiter and even in the elbow forces defenses to respect the outside shooting of the Pacers. His ineffectiveness means that if Miami can lock Paul George down, they can spend the rest of their time focusing on the Paint.
Just as importantly, Granger can't really guard Lebron James at 150%, let alone 50-80%. Even on the road, an uninhibited Lebron James should scare the crap out of the home fans tonight.
Even if the Pacers win tonight, LBJ will be smelling the blood in the water if Granger is hobbled. He will close the series out in game 7. The Pacers will be done regardless- the only thing that will change is how many ECF games Dexter Pittman will need to sit, 1 or 2.
5. Fact or Fiction: Miami's Game 5 dominance will carry over.
Utter fiction. Even not if but WHEN Lebron James dominates both sides of the floor tonight, and even if Dwayne Wade has another huge game, the Heat's 5v2 quest just got even harder with the suspension of two more forwards. The Pacers are a physical team, which means forward is the position that the Heat need some depth and skill at. Without either, it's sure to be a low-scoring, ugly kind of game.
I predicted yesterday morning on twitter that the Heat would close the series out if Granger wasn't at 100%. That was, of course, before the two suspensions were announced. Still, with Lebron still in name-taking mode, I think this game will be a coin toss. Who will win? I can't say, though I'm leaning Pacers. Either way, don't expect a blowout.
Monday, May 21, 2012
Remembering Bill Stewart, 1952-2012
Morgantown's shot at their first crystal football? Erased.
The Mountain State's favorite son? Departed.
Hope? In short supply, to say the least.
West Virginia, then removed from the national championship discussion after a crushing defeat at the hands of a 4-7 archrival Pitt squad, was slated to play Oklahoma in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl. Despite their recent #1 ranking, the Moutaineers were massive, massive underdogs to the Sooners. No one on national TV gave them a chance. It was just a bunch of hopelessly lost boys, destined to flounder in a clear leadership vacuum.
Enter Bill Stewart.
Stewart single handedly put the emotional wellbeing of an entire state on his shoulders and just chugged right along. Here was an absolute nobody, an assistant that no one had ever heard of before and, had he lost the BCS Bowl and failed to obtain the promotion to head coach, no one would likely ever hear of again. By anyone's reckoning, he was not a man who was prepared to lead one of the most shocking upsets in bowl history.
Then, this happened. It's one of the most inspirational sports videos out there, in part because it's not fiction; it's not from a movie. It's a real life speech from an underdog coach, given to a 20-point underdog team. And yes, that team dominated one of the winningest programs on the biggest stage of BCS football.
Bill Stewart saved West Virginia football. It's not an understatement. Rather than watch the program crumble to mediocrity under the weight of a historically embarassing loss, he lifted up a team whose soul had eroded under sudden and unavoidably damning circumstances.
I don't care for the other stuff. If fans want to complain about 9-4 seasons, that's fine. Living up to the lofty expectations of Morgantown, WV is no easy task. In fact, I can only count about three coaches in the history of the program that truly have. Stew was 27-12 as head coach, and though it may have felt substandard at the time, the odds are we were an incredibly selfish fan base as a whole. I never felt right about how he was forced out, even if Coach Holgorsen was a "better" coach.
And today, at age 59, Coach Bill Stewart sufferend an apparent heart attack while golfing with former WVU AD Ed Pastilong at Stonewall Jackson park, a place I often played as a kid when visiting family. He died at a nearby hospital in Weston, WV-- the small town where my dad and his family are from. My proximity to the story makes his death even harder to swallow.
Just like legendary coaches Bear Bryant and Joe Paterno before him, it seems Stewart may have quite literally been unable to live without the football program he adored so greatly. The comparison is especially relevant for the late JoePa-- though their levels of success are wildly contrasted, both suffered from incredibly public exits from their respective, beloved Universities, and it seems neither's heart could take it for very long.
But don't remember Coach Stew for his departure. Remember him for his arrival. Remember him for the team that he bled for and was devoted to, just as much as the most fervent of fans. The man may not have been the sexiest or the flashiest, but anyone who knew or watched him would go to their grave saying he was truly devoted to the old gold and blue. Wins are great, but devotion to the fraternity that is Mountaineer football is what truly matters. In that regard, Coach Stew's success was unparalleled and without question.
Never leave your wingman ever, indeed.
Rest in Peace, Coach Stewart. You were one of the good ones, and you will be missed.
"Leave No Doubt"
Bill Stewart
June 6, 1952- May 21, 2012
Montani Semper Liberi
The Mountain State's favorite son? Departed.
Hope? In short supply, to say the least.
West Virginia, then removed from the national championship discussion after a crushing defeat at the hands of a 4-7 archrival Pitt squad, was slated to play Oklahoma in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl. Despite their recent #1 ranking, the Moutaineers were massive, massive underdogs to the Sooners. No one on national TV gave them a chance. It was just a bunch of hopelessly lost boys, destined to flounder in a clear leadership vacuum.
Enter Bill Stewart.
Stewart single handedly put the emotional wellbeing of an entire state on his shoulders and just chugged right along. Here was an absolute nobody, an assistant that no one had ever heard of before and, had he lost the BCS Bowl and failed to obtain the promotion to head coach, no one would likely ever hear of again. By anyone's reckoning, he was not a man who was prepared to lead one of the most shocking upsets in bowl history.
Then, this happened. It's one of the most inspirational sports videos out there, in part because it's not fiction; it's not from a movie. It's a real life speech from an underdog coach, given to a 20-point underdog team. And yes, that team dominated one of the winningest programs on the biggest stage of BCS football.
Bill Stewart saved West Virginia football. It's not an understatement. Rather than watch the program crumble to mediocrity under the weight of a historically embarassing loss, he lifted up a team whose soul had eroded under sudden and unavoidably damning circumstances.
I don't care for the other stuff. If fans want to complain about 9-4 seasons, that's fine. Living up to the lofty expectations of Morgantown, WV is no easy task. In fact, I can only count about three coaches in the history of the program that truly have. Stew was 27-12 as head coach, and though it may have felt substandard at the time, the odds are we were an incredibly selfish fan base as a whole. I never felt right about how he was forced out, even if Coach Holgorsen was a "better" coach.
And today, at age 59, Coach Bill Stewart sufferend an apparent heart attack while golfing with former WVU AD Ed Pastilong at Stonewall Jackson park, a place I often played as a kid when visiting family. He died at a nearby hospital in Weston, WV-- the small town where my dad and his family are from. My proximity to the story makes his death even harder to swallow.
Just like legendary coaches Bear Bryant and Joe Paterno before him, it seems Stewart may have quite literally been unable to live without the football program he adored so greatly. The comparison is especially relevant for the late JoePa-- though their levels of success are wildly contrasted, both suffered from incredibly public exits from their respective, beloved Universities, and it seems neither's heart could take it for very long.
But don't remember Coach Stew for his departure. Remember him for his arrival. Remember him for the team that he bled for and was devoted to, just as much as the most fervent of fans. The man may not have been the sexiest or the flashiest, but anyone who knew or watched him would go to their grave saying he was truly devoted to the old gold and blue. Wins are great, but devotion to the fraternity that is Mountaineer football is what truly matters. In that regard, Coach Stew's success was unparalleled and without question.
Never leave your wingman ever, indeed.
Rest in Peace, Coach Stewart. You were one of the good ones, and you will be missed.
"Leave No Doubt"
Bill Stewart
June 6, 1952- May 21, 2012
Montani Semper Liberi
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