Please, fellow sports fans, tell me that you saw the Michigan State-Wisconsin game. Or at least the finish. If you didn’t, shame on you. You missed one of the greatest endings I have ever personally seen in my short seven year career of watching/being incredibly obsessed with college football. The Spartans total defensive effort isn’t going to blow anyone away- they allowed 443 total yards of offense to the Badgers- but big plays on defense really propelled MSU forward. Led by a safety, two interceptions, and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, Michigan State led for a majority of the game. No. 6 Wisconsin had something to say about that. They tied the game with 1:26 left, only to witness an unthinkable ending. With just seconds to go and right outside of field goal range, State quarterback Kirk Cousins quite literally heaved up a prayer from midfield. The ball was swatted around and, by some sort of divine miracle, was caught outside of the end zone by unheralded receiver Keith Nichol, his first catch of the night. He pushed to break the plane of the goal line, but was called just short. The game was destined for overtime… that is, until replay officials overturned the call with video evidence that unquestionably proved that the Hail Mary was indeed a touchdown. What a finish.
So that got me thinking… how does this remarkable game compare with some of the greatest finishes of my football-watching lifetime (circa 2004-present). This is certainly not a comprehensive list of all great finishes in the last few years- that would take much more room than this simple blog (writer’s note: or newspaper column) has available. I won’t be so presumptuous as to impose my own personal preferences on you readers, but I think many of you might hazard a guess at which of the following incredible finishes tops my all time favorite endings list:
The “Bush Push” (October 15, 2005)- Notre Dame thought they had won. Fans had already come on to the field to celebrate a huge Irish upset of USC. But after seven seconds were placed back on the clock and the fans had been chased off the field for one final play, USC quarterback Matt Leinart tried to take the ball in to the end zone himself. Just when you thought he was going to be dragged down short of the goal line, he got a bit of an unorthodox push from Heisman winner Reggie Bush. Touchdown Southern Cal. The Trojans win it 34-31; the Irish remain in an ever-humbling irrelevance.
Boise State’s Undefeated Season (January 1, 2007)- Back before Boise was America’s most frequently talked about Cinderella story, they were on the cusp of a rare undefeated season. The Broncos were on the wrong side of a close game against Oklahoma in the 2007 edition of the Fiesta Bowl, but a 50-yard hook and ladder play as time expired pushed the game to overtime. You would think that kind of magic might have used up all of the positive karma Boise had left in the tank, but a statue of liberty 2-pt conversion in overtime won the boys in blue their first BCS bowl game.
The “Miracle in Michigan” (September 1, 2007)- For the amount of FBS teams that buy wins from FCS schools, there aren’t a whole lot of upsets. Most would agree that the occasional upset is quite rare, but an FCS school beating a top ranked team? That’s just unheard of. Enter the two-time defending national champions, the 2007 rendition of the Appalachian State Mountaineers. They played a back and forth game with then-ranked #5 Michigan and found themselves up 34-32 with seconds to go. Michigan managed to put together one last drive that culminated with a go-ahead field goal attempt at the end of the game, only to have it blocked by the App State special teams. App State became the first FCS team to beat a ranked FBS opponent. (Anyone know who the second team was? Go ask a friend at Virginia Tech.)
Les’ Lucky Number 13 (October 1, 2010?)- Tennessee was on the brink of upsetting LSU 13-10 in Baton Rouge. With less than 30 seconds left in the game, all LSU head coach Les Miles had to do was somehow get the ball into the end zone. Atrocious clock management brought the game clock all the way down under ten seconds with LSU players scrambling around to find out the play call and get into position. Chaos ensued all the way through the play, too, as the quarterback muffed the snap and was sacked all the way out of the red zone. The clock struck 0. “FINAL: Tennessee 13, LSU 10” showed on the television. The game was, for all intents and purposes, concluded. That is, of course, until the referees ran onto the field, hauled everyone out of the tunnels to the locker room, and announced that Tennessee had too many men on the field during their last play. Video inspection by the commentators revealed Tennessee had not eleven, not twelve, but thirteen men on the field! LSU got one final play call, and the punched it in for the win. Final score- LSU 16, Tennessee 13.
Good Ole Scottie (October 1, 2008)- He was as much of a legend as a special teams player can be. JMU’s very own Devin Hester. Entire chants sang his name. He is Scottie McGee, and as the then-ranked #1 team in the land James Madison Dukes went on the road to play archrival #5 Richmond, a special sort of feeling was in the air. Most of the current student population, including myself, was still in high school at the time, but being a Richmond native, we still got the game on Comcast Sportsnet. It was one of those games you just happen to sit down and watch for no reason at all, but you end up witnessing something magical. The game was physical, close, and compelling- just as a rivalry game should be. As Richmond punted to the already-infamous McGee with a tie game and hardly any time left at all, Scottie ran up the sideline. He picked up a block, made one or two guys miss, and was just gone. He ran it in for the touchdown with just one second left on the clock, and the JMU special teams came up with the stop on the ensuing kickoff. Scottie may have been a fan favorite even earlier, but this was the game that transubstantiated him into the stuff of legend.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
Rant Time: In Tebow I Refuse to Trust
This was neither the first thing that I wanted to write about nor the last. To be honest, I feel like I go on about how not amazing Tebow is a lot to by friends and readers, and in my mind, it's with good reason. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's start at the beginning.
Week 7 of the NFL? The 1-win Broncoes are coming off a bye and traveling to winless Miami. Enter Tebow, making what we presume is his first of several starts on the year. I give some serious credit to the Denver coaching staff- if this was a drawn up conditional scenario (ie- if we are 1-4 going into the bye, let's get Tebow ready and give him a shot at Miami if they end up sucking like they have recently), then it was a brilliant strategy. In fact, it's probably the smartest thing they've done since firing Josh McDaniels. Anyway, to the game.
The following is an appropriately relevant excerpt from Bill Simmon's amazing website Grantland. I did not write this, but it very succintly describes my feelings, almost word for word. I say again. I did not write the following excerpt. 110% of credit should be given to Bill Barnwell. You know, the guy that wrote this? Because it wasn't me:
"Far be it [for me] to ruin an admittedly great story, but let's be real about the Tim Tebow plaudits being thrown around after the Broncos' 18-15 comeback over the Dolphins on Sunday. Tebow certainly deserves some of the credit, but not the massive outpouring of praise that is being thrown his way.
The Win Probability chart at advancednflstats.com for this game tells the true story of what happened. When Tebow took over on his own 20-yard line down 15 points with 5:23 left, both Broncos and Dolphins fans were leaving the stadium in Miami, and they weren't wrong to do so. The Broncos' chances of winning were estimated to be around 1 percent. Tebow proceeded to lead his most impressive drive of the day, going 80 yards in eight plays, throwing a five-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas.
For all that work, the Broncos' chances of winning had improved all the way to … 2 percent. Teams with an eight-point lead that are about to receive the kickoff simply don't lose very frequently; it takes an expected onside kick to pick it up, and teams recover expected onside kicks only about 20 percent of the time. When the Broncos were able to recover the kick, their win expectancy improved to 12 percent; the onside kick was six times more valuable than Tebow's drive. If that figure seems low, consider that the Broncos still needed to drive 50 yards, score, pick up a two-point conversion, and then win in overtime. They had momentum in their favor, but so have plenty of other teams in this scenario who haven't been able to pick up the W.
Tebow then proceeded to take advantage of a short field. Starting on his own 44-yard line, Tebow drove the team 56 yards in 10 plays, highlighted by a gorgeous 28-yard throw to (and equally impressive catch from) Daniel Fells. After that, Denver converted the two-pointer on a Tebow run1 and the Broncos' win expectancy was pushed all the way up to 46 percent. They'd made an incredible comeback, but they were still underdogs heading into overtime.
After they won the overtime coin toss and traded possessions with the Broncos, the Dolphins remained favorites. When Daniel Thomas converted a second-and-2 to give the Dolphins a new set of downs on their own 43-yard line, the Dolphins only needed to travel about 25 more yards to pick up a game-winning field goal. They win an estimated 67 percent of the time in that situation.
That, of course, led to the final dramatic swing. Broncos linebacker D.J. Williams sacked Matt Moore on the ensuing play, producing a single-play swing that was bigger than any of Tebow's drives. The Broncos went from a win expectancy of 33 percent to 78 percent by recovering the fumble, and while they proceeded to gain only two yards on the subsequent drive, they converted another short field into points to win the game.
On Sunday, Tim Tebow was given a total of 15 possessions. Four of them started with 56 yards or less to go for an offensive touchdown. Not coincidentally, of the four, three were his final three drives, and he produced a total of 11 points on those drives. His other 11 drives all started deep in his own territory, with six of them beginning on the 20-yard line and only one beyond the 25 (a drive that started on the Miami 41 that resulted in a missed field goal). Ten of those drives resulted in eight punts, a missed field goal, and a fumble. They gained, on average, less than 12 yards.
This isn't a one-week trend, either. When he came in against the Chargers last Sunday, Tebow started with three consecutive drives inside his own 31-yard line. The Broncos punted on all three drives. On the ensuing two possessions, though, Tebow started from his own 49-yard line and the San Diego 41-yard line. With the short fields, he proceeded to score two touchdowns. It can't be much simpler.
A lot of what we're crediting to Tim Tebow is actually the impact of things that are totally out of his control, a combination of field position, defensive turnovers, and a miracle on special teams. He deserves some of the plaudits that have come his way over the past two Sundays. Just not all of them."
Tebow should be commended for pulling his team out of a rut and winning the game, but let's not forget why they were in a shutout, 15-0 hole with 6 minutes to go to begin with. It's because Tebow played like absolute garbage for the first 54 minutes. In my mind, no amount of comeback leading can mask that kind of damning information. I mean, come one, you got shut out for the first 55 minutes by a defense that let the patriots rack up 600 yards of offense when they weren't even loose yet in week 1!
Now, to give some credit where credit is due. I don't think Tebow is a great NFL quarterback by any means. But the guy is a winner. Even when he loses, he's a winner. And where he excels is in a hurry up formation in the fourth quarter when trying to lead a comeback. Thanks to my friends over at ESPN Stats&Info, I can tell you that Tebow has now led two 13+ point comebacks in the fourth quarter. That's all in four starts with the Broncoes, yet it's the same amount of comebacks some little guy named John Elway pulled off in 231 starts. Half-full people will love the Elway comparison and take it at face value. Half-empty glasses will probably realize that Elway's teams were loaded with talent, and they never needed to come back from double digit deficits in the fourth quarter because they probably weren't losing, and they definitely weren't losing by that much. Where do I stand? It's probably somewhere in the middle, but I wanna give Tebow the benefit of the doubt here. You can credit a prevent defense too, but the hurry up no huddle is what Tebow can excel at. It's the scheme that compliments him best. Sue me for using this example, but if you put Pat White in a spread option offense, he's going to (and did) look like Zeus; if you put him in an NFL offense, he's going to (and, unfortunately, did) look like Ryan Leaf.
All in all, can we just calm down with handing him the keys to the city of Denver? He's not John Elway yet, but he's giving people some hope. And if you're team is 1-4, and your best player is you're rookie draft pick, isn't hope all you can really ask for? We can agree to disagree I suppose.
One thing we should all agree on? Tony Sporano should probably fire his defensive coordinator. Really, Tony? No linebacker is spying on Tim Tebow up the middle on a 2pt conversion to tie the game and send it to overtime?
That, my friends, is a fail.
Week 7 of the NFL? The 1-win Broncoes are coming off a bye and traveling to winless Miami. Enter Tebow, making what we presume is his first of several starts on the year. I give some serious credit to the Denver coaching staff- if this was a drawn up conditional scenario (ie- if we are 1-4 going into the bye, let's get Tebow ready and give him a shot at Miami if they end up sucking like they have recently), then it was a brilliant strategy. In fact, it's probably the smartest thing they've done since firing Josh McDaniels. Anyway, to the game.
The following is an appropriately relevant excerpt from Bill Simmon's amazing website Grantland. I did not write this, but it very succintly describes my feelings, almost word for word. I say again. I did not write the following excerpt. 110% of credit should be given to Bill Barnwell. You know, the guy that wrote this? Because it wasn't me:
"Far be it [for me] to ruin an admittedly great story, but let's be real about the Tim Tebow plaudits being thrown around after the Broncos' 18-15 comeback over the Dolphins on Sunday. Tebow certainly deserves some of the credit, but not the massive outpouring of praise that is being thrown his way.
The Win Probability chart at advancednflstats.com for this game tells the true story of what happened. When Tebow took over on his own 20-yard line down 15 points with 5:23 left, both Broncos and Dolphins fans were leaving the stadium in Miami, and they weren't wrong to do so. The Broncos' chances of winning were estimated to be around 1 percent. Tebow proceeded to lead his most impressive drive of the day, going 80 yards in eight plays, throwing a five-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas.
For all that work, the Broncos' chances of winning had improved all the way to … 2 percent. Teams with an eight-point lead that are about to receive the kickoff simply don't lose very frequently; it takes an expected onside kick to pick it up, and teams recover expected onside kicks only about 20 percent of the time. When the Broncos were able to recover the kick, their win expectancy improved to 12 percent; the onside kick was six times more valuable than Tebow's drive. If that figure seems low, consider that the Broncos still needed to drive 50 yards, score, pick up a two-point conversion, and then win in overtime. They had momentum in their favor, but so have plenty of other teams in this scenario who haven't been able to pick up the W.
Tebow then proceeded to take advantage of a short field. Starting on his own 44-yard line, Tebow drove the team 56 yards in 10 plays, highlighted by a gorgeous 28-yard throw to (and equally impressive catch from) Daniel Fells. After that, Denver converted the two-pointer on a Tebow run1 and the Broncos' win expectancy was pushed all the way up to 46 percent. They'd made an incredible comeback, but they were still underdogs heading into overtime.
After they won the overtime coin toss and traded possessions with the Broncos, the Dolphins remained favorites. When Daniel Thomas converted a second-and-2 to give the Dolphins a new set of downs on their own 43-yard line, the Dolphins only needed to travel about 25 more yards to pick up a game-winning field goal. They win an estimated 67 percent of the time in that situation.
That, of course, led to the final dramatic swing. Broncos linebacker D.J. Williams sacked Matt Moore on the ensuing play, producing a single-play swing that was bigger than any of Tebow's drives. The Broncos went from a win expectancy of 33 percent to 78 percent by recovering the fumble, and while they proceeded to gain only two yards on the subsequent drive, they converted another short field into points to win the game.
On Sunday, Tim Tebow was given a total of 15 possessions. Four of them started with 56 yards or less to go for an offensive touchdown. Not coincidentally, of the four, three were his final three drives, and he produced a total of 11 points on those drives. His other 11 drives all started deep in his own territory, with six of them beginning on the 20-yard line and only one beyond the 25 (a drive that started on the Miami 41 that resulted in a missed field goal). Ten of those drives resulted in eight punts, a missed field goal, and a fumble. They gained, on average, less than 12 yards.
This isn't a one-week trend, either. When he came in against the Chargers last Sunday, Tebow started with three consecutive drives inside his own 31-yard line. The Broncos punted on all three drives. On the ensuing two possessions, though, Tebow started from his own 49-yard line and the San Diego 41-yard line. With the short fields, he proceeded to score two touchdowns. It can't be much simpler.
A lot of what we're crediting to Tim Tebow is actually the impact of things that are totally out of his control, a combination of field position, defensive turnovers, and a miracle on special teams. He deserves some of the plaudits that have come his way over the past two Sundays. Just not all of them."
Tebow should be commended for pulling his team out of a rut and winning the game, but let's not forget why they were in a shutout, 15-0 hole with 6 minutes to go to begin with. It's because Tebow played like absolute garbage for the first 54 minutes. In my mind, no amount of comeback leading can mask that kind of damning information. I mean, come one, you got shut out for the first 55 minutes by a defense that let the patriots rack up 600 yards of offense when they weren't even loose yet in week 1!
Now, to give some credit where credit is due. I don't think Tebow is a great NFL quarterback by any means. But the guy is a winner. Even when he loses, he's a winner. And where he excels is in a hurry up formation in the fourth quarter when trying to lead a comeback. Thanks to my friends over at ESPN Stats&Info, I can tell you that Tebow has now led two 13+ point comebacks in the fourth quarter. That's all in four starts with the Broncoes, yet it's the same amount of comebacks some little guy named John Elway pulled off in 231 starts. Half-full people will love the Elway comparison and take it at face value. Half-empty glasses will probably realize that Elway's teams were loaded with talent, and they never needed to come back from double digit deficits in the fourth quarter because they probably weren't losing, and they definitely weren't losing by that much. Where do I stand? It's probably somewhere in the middle, but I wanna give Tebow the benefit of the doubt here. You can credit a prevent defense too, but the hurry up no huddle is what Tebow can excel at. It's the scheme that compliments him best. Sue me for using this example, but if you put Pat White in a spread option offense, he's going to (and did) look like Zeus; if you put him in an NFL offense, he's going to (and, unfortunately, did) look like Ryan Leaf.
All in all, can we just calm down with handing him the keys to the city of Denver? He's not John Elway yet, but he's giving people some hope. And if you're team is 1-4, and your best player is you're rookie draft pick, isn't hope all you can really ask for? We can agree to disagree I suppose.
One thing we should all agree on? Tony Sporano should probably fire his defensive coordinator. Really, Tony? No linebacker is spying on Tim Tebow up the middle on a 2pt conversion to tie the game and send it to overtime?
That, my friends, is a fail.
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
The Sixth Man: #NBARank Project
ESPN has been counting down who is, in their opinion, the very best of the NBA. Here lies the basis for this edition of the Blog's Sixth Man recurring segment.
1. Lebron James at #1. Too high, too low, or just right?
I'm going Goldielocks on this one. Look, LBJ might be the most controversial human being to ever play professional sports. But it doesn't mean he isn't the absolute best guy around, the number one guy you'd want to pick up if you were building a team. The guy is a freak- so much so that you can't even really do a sports science take on him because EVERYTHING about him defies scientific explanation (really? THAT is a small forward? yeah, okay.) Even with his strange inability to set his alarm clock for playoff games that really matter, he's still consistently the best player in the NBA on both sides of the ball. He's an offensive juggernaut, a defensive stalwart, and just forget about it on fast breaks. Don't tell me he doesn't have any rings. Frankly, I don't think that matters when you're talking about better players- only better player legacies.
And besides, who could you POSSIBLY put above him?
2. Dwight Howard at #2. Too high, too low, or just right?
Too high. Dwight Howard is an amazing defender, far and away the best center in the league. His physical tools alone place him in the top ten players. But what he lacks in his offensive game really hurts him sometimes. When you're alleged to be the second best player in the land, you can't be woefully one dimensional at times. Great player to build a franchise around, but the second best player.
3. Dwayne Wade at #3. Too high, too low, or just right?
I think that's right. Wade is an amazing player, but I've always admired his intangibles even more than his skills. Something about his personality just draws me as a fan in, so imagine what he's gotta do to the guys in the locker room that are playing on the same court as him. His leadership, his shooting, and his abillity to have an innate knowledge of just when he needs to take over a game put in him squarely in the top 5. Plus he just feels like a 3.
4. Chris Paul at #4. Too high, too low, or just right?
You know, I'm kind of going against the grain on this one, but I kind of like CP3 in this spot. Everyone else seemed to knock him down to more of a 6-8 kind of guy, but I think he deserves some wiggle room because of the knee. After all, aren't we measuring him as a player and not as a mortal? When he isn't physically limited, Chris Paul's play is nothing short of inspired. He can be Steve Nash/Rajon Rondo and rack up more assists than I have earned years of life on Earth, then turn around the next game and score 30 points. Look at the playoff series against the Lakers. New Orleans lost, but that's a prime example of CP3 in top form. And it was just downright scary.
5. Dirk Nowitzki at #5. Too high, too low, or just right?
Hey, ESPN. I realize TNT had the rights to most of the playoffs, so I gotta ask... did you guys even bother watching the NBA playoffs? News flash, Dirk is kind of good. Like... really good. And now he even has a ring to go with his, well, goodness.
Look, this is too low. I would have Dirk at number #2. How many dudes that big can shoot the three ball like he can? The answer to that riddle is nobody, besides Dirk Nowitzski. He's one of the most balanced players in the NBA, but it's more than that. He's a hard worker, the kind of guy that players with quiet fire. He toiled away on the Mavs for years to win a championship. He didn't ask to be traded. He didn't ask for other superstars to be mashed and grafted onto his half of the hardcourt. He's an old-fashioned, old-world player who knows what it takes to win and has all the right moves to get it done. It's a shame he doesn't have more rings.
And this ranking has nothing to do with the fact that he just won the NBA title. Dirk was one of the first players I ever knew about when I was just finding things out about the NBA. I played my first year of fantasy basketball with some governors school friends in ninth grade. I drafted Dirk because I thought his last name was cool. He rewarded me by constantly putting up numbers that were astronomical, though I really had no idea that they were at the time. He's really, really, really good. If it's even possible, he's actually a little undervalued, despite being head and shoulders above the rest of the team that just won the NBA finals. And that's why a ranking of fifth best is kind of rediculous.
Got a response? @ckiddysports, hash tag NBARank.
1. Lebron James at #1. Too high, too low, or just right?
I'm going Goldielocks on this one. Look, LBJ might be the most controversial human being to ever play professional sports. But it doesn't mean he isn't the absolute best guy around, the number one guy you'd want to pick up if you were building a team. The guy is a freak- so much so that you can't even really do a sports science take on him because EVERYTHING about him defies scientific explanation (really? THAT is a small forward? yeah, okay.) Even with his strange inability to set his alarm clock for playoff games that really matter, he's still consistently the best player in the NBA on both sides of the ball. He's an offensive juggernaut, a defensive stalwart, and just forget about it on fast breaks. Don't tell me he doesn't have any rings. Frankly, I don't think that matters when you're talking about better players- only better player legacies.
And besides, who could you POSSIBLY put above him?
2. Dwight Howard at #2. Too high, too low, or just right?
Too high. Dwight Howard is an amazing defender, far and away the best center in the league. His physical tools alone place him in the top ten players. But what he lacks in his offensive game really hurts him sometimes. When you're alleged to be the second best player in the land, you can't be woefully one dimensional at times. Great player to build a franchise around, but the second best player.
3. Dwayne Wade at #3. Too high, too low, or just right?
I think that's right. Wade is an amazing player, but I've always admired his intangibles even more than his skills. Something about his personality just draws me as a fan in, so imagine what he's gotta do to the guys in the locker room that are playing on the same court as him. His leadership, his shooting, and his abillity to have an innate knowledge of just when he needs to take over a game put in him squarely in the top 5. Plus he just feels like a 3.
4. Chris Paul at #4. Too high, too low, or just right?
You know, I'm kind of going against the grain on this one, but I kind of like CP3 in this spot. Everyone else seemed to knock him down to more of a 6-8 kind of guy, but I think he deserves some wiggle room because of the knee. After all, aren't we measuring him as a player and not as a mortal? When he isn't physically limited, Chris Paul's play is nothing short of inspired. He can be Steve Nash/Rajon Rondo and rack up more assists than I have earned years of life on Earth, then turn around the next game and score 30 points. Look at the playoff series against the Lakers. New Orleans lost, but that's a prime example of CP3 in top form. And it was just downright scary.
5. Dirk Nowitzki at #5. Too high, too low, or just right?
Hey, ESPN. I realize TNT had the rights to most of the playoffs, so I gotta ask... did you guys even bother watching the NBA playoffs? News flash, Dirk is kind of good. Like... really good. And now he even has a ring to go with his, well, goodness.
Look, this is too low. I would have Dirk at number #2. How many dudes that big can shoot the three ball like he can? The answer to that riddle is nobody, besides Dirk Nowitzski. He's one of the most balanced players in the NBA, but it's more than that. He's a hard worker, the kind of guy that players with quiet fire. He toiled away on the Mavs for years to win a championship. He didn't ask to be traded. He didn't ask for other superstars to be mashed and grafted onto his half of the hardcourt. He's an old-fashioned, old-world player who knows what it takes to win and has all the right moves to get it done. It's a shame he doesn't have more rings.
And this ranking has nothing to do with the fact that he just won the NBA title. Dirk was one of the first players I ever knew about when I was just finding things out about the NBA. I played my first year of fantasy basketball with some governors school friends in ninth grade. I drafted Dirk because I thought his last name was cool. He rewarded me by constantly putting up numbers that were astronomical, though I really had no idea that they were at the time. He's really, really, really good. If it's even possible, he's actually a little undervalued, despite being head and shoulders above the rest of the team that just won the NBA finals. And that's why a ranking of fifth best is kind of rediculous.
Got a response? @ckiddysports, hash tag NBARank.
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Rant Time: Maine Plays FBS Football Against JMU
If you didn’t know any better, you might have thought JMU lost to a team from the Football Bowl Subdivision on Saturday. No, Maine isn’t playing in the ACC or anything, and I’m not implying that their athletes are of the highest caliber either. I’m talking about schemes.
The Football Championship Subdivision (the level of competition that JMU, Maine, and others play on) can be described with one word- traditional. I hear people complaining all the time about Mickey Matthews’ ultraconservative style of play calling- that run-first, run-second, probably-run-third type of attack that makes a lot of fans question whether our quarterback is capable of doing anything other than handing the ball off. But if you’ve ever watched FCS football, you know it’s not just our school that keeps the fans wondering. JMU’s coaching staff may have perfected the art of one dimensional play calling at times, but it’s not like we’re doing things any different than most of the other teams out there in FCSland.
FBS, however, is very different. Unlike JMU’s level, the top teams in the country love to follow whatever offensive scheme is popular or trendy at the time. The preferred method of moving the football these days? Spread offenses. Spread options like Oregon and Auburn seek spread the field and run the ball behind a lightning fast ground attack. Both teams have landed in the national spotlight recently by putting up huge offensive numbers in just about every category, with Auburn winning the national championship last season. Meanwhile, Air Raid Spreads put up even more gaudy numbers. Teams like Oklahoma State and West Virginia regularly throw for 400 yards with a healthy mix of deep passes and little screens to the outside.
So what in the world does any of that have to do with us here at JMU? On Saturday, we saw the effects of a whole new trickle-down theory. JMU likes to pass so that we can run the ball; many big time FBS teams like to run so that they can pass the ball. Maine’s offensive strategy definitely fell into the latter of those two categories. From the second quarter on, Maine’s quarterback threw little four and five yard passes to the outside at will, and our defense wouldn’t really do anything to stop it. Only after passing it four or five times in a row, Maine would then break off big runs up the middle for seven and eight yards at a time- way too much given the caliber of our run defense. Then they would go back to short passes on the outside.
Nothing explains Maine’s FBS-style quite like that last two point conversion play in overtime though. That formation- the “Swinging Gate” scheme- is utilized in special short yardage plays by Oregon, USC, and other successful teams. The fact that Maine used it on what would have been the last play of the game whether they scored and won or failed to score and lost means that they were actively creating plays based on successful FBS schemes for this game. Maine is out to win this year. Conservatism be damned, as long as there’s a W next to your team’s name on the score sheet.
JMU has to be more flexible defensively. Our offense looks fine, even with a freshman quarterback calling the plays, but we can’t be so caught up with defending “traditional” FCS schemes that we can’t defend anything else. Sometimes, we just need to throw tradition out the window and do what makes sense.
The Football Championship Subdivision (the level of competition that JMU, Maine, and others play on) can be described with one word- traditional. I hear people complaining all the time about Mickey Matthews’ ultraconservative style of play calling- that run-first, run-second, probably-run-third type of attack that makes a lot of fans question whether our quarterback is capable of doing anything other than handing the ball off. But if you’ve ever watched FCS football, you know it’s not just our school that keeps the fans wondering. JMU’s coaching staff may have perfected the art of one dimensional play calling at times, but it’s not like we’re doing things any different than most of the other teams out there in FCSland.
FBS, however, is very different. Unlike JMU’s level, the top teams in the country love to follow whatever offensive scheme is popular or trendy at the time. The preferred method of moving the football these days? Spread offenses. Spread options like Oregon and Auburn seek spread the field and run the ball behind a lightning fast ground attack. Both teams have landed in the national spotlight recently by putting up huge offensive numbers in just about every category, with Auburn winning the national championship last season. Meanwhile, Air Raid Spreads put up even more gaudy numbers. Teams like Oklahoma State and West Virginia regularly throw for 400 yards with a healthy mix of deep passes and little screens to the outside.
So what in the world does any of that have to do with us here at JMU? On Saturday, we saw the effects of a whole new trickle-down theory. JMU likes to pass so that we can run the ball; many big time FBS teams like to run so that they can pass the ball. Maine’s offensive strategy definitely fell into the latter of those two categories. From the second quarter on, Maine’s quarterback threw little four and five yard passes to the outside at will, and our defense wouldn’t really do anything to stop it. Only after passing it four or five times in a row, Maine would then break off big runs up the middle for seven and eight yards at a time- way too much given the caliber of our run defense. Then they would go back to short passes on the outside.
Nothing explains Maine’s FBS-style quite like that last two point conversion play in overtime though. That formation- the “Swinging Gate” scheme- is utilized in special short yardage plays by Oregon, USC, and other successful teams. The fact that Maine used it on what would have been the last play of the game whether they scored and won or failed to score and lost means that they were actively creating plays based on successful FBS schemes for this game. Maine is out to win this year. Conservatism be damned, as long as there’s a W next to your team’s name on the score sheet.
JMU has to be more flexible defensively. Our offense looks fine, even with a freshman quarterback calling the plays, but we can’t be so caught up with defending “traditional” FCS schemes that we can’t defend anything else. Sometimes, we just need to throw tradition out the window and do what makes sense.
Monday, October 3, 2011
Hangovers are Overrated
We're finally getting into some conference play and exposing some teams that might have been a little overrated. In this week's Hangover, I wanna reflect on the weekend, and maybe even get some I told you so's in.
Overrated Watchlist:
The Team: Oklahoma
Their Current Ranking: 3
What they should be Ranked: 14
The Evidence: Let's put it this way- Oklahoma's best win is on the road at the team currently in last place in the ACC. Yeah, I'm talking about Florida State, and until they aren't trailing Wake Forest in the ACC standings, I don't wanna hear about what a good win it was for the Sooners. Other wins include incredibly mediocre Missouri, Tulsa, and Ball State. There's a reason Oklahoma has dropped in the standings behind SEC teams. It's because other teams are proving they belong, and the Sooners aren't doing anything.
Mark your Calendars: Even though the Big 12 slate starts this weekend, Oklahoma probably won't see much of a challenge until November. The Red River Rivalry against equally overrated Texas is this Saturday and is followed by Kansas, Texas Tech, and Kansas State.
Side note: KSU just squeezed out a 1 point home win over Baylor, the only team in America that has yet to realize they must actually field a defense. The media was quick to jump to the massive conclusion that the wildcats are good, and threw them into the top 20 ranked teams. Are you seeing a pattern here with Big 12 teams and being overrated?
Anyway, Oklahoma hosts Texas A&M on November 5 and will travel to Baylor on November 19. Their finale is in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. The Sooners will faulter down the stretch as they play their best competition, dropping 2 of the 3 games I just mentioned.
The Team: Virginia Tech
Their Current Ranking:21
What they should be Ranked: 24
The Evidence: I admit it, this is less of a heads up and more of an I TOLD YOU SO. Whoops, was that accidentally in bold? My bad.
Virginia Tech allowed 10 ppg through the first 4 weeks, notching one of the best scoring defense marks in the country. Congrats- that was against two C-USA teams and two FCS squads. Clemson game to town and handed VT a twenty point loss, the second largest negative scoring differential for the castrated turkies in the last 30 years. I'm looking at the AP Poll trying to be fair, but honestly, the only teams in this poll that I think Tech is better than are the likes of Kansas State and Baylor.
Tech averages fewer than 200 yards passing for game. I know that comes with the territory of having a first year starter at quarterback, but regardless of the reasoning, that tends to make them a little too one dimensional on offense. I don't care if David Wilson runs a 2.9 in the 40, if all you can do is run, defenders are just going to crowd the box all day long. Tech needs to work on open field tackling and balancing out their offense if they want to get back into the ACC title race.
Mark your Calendars: In the preseason, I recall predicting Tech would cruise through ACC play only to get smashed in the title game by Florida State. It's clear to me now that Tech won't even do that. The Georgia Tech game is a loss, just go ahead and book that now. I also believe there will be a surprise loss in there- look at Miami, Wake Forest, or UVA to spring an upset.
VT fans may now proceed to tell me how rediculous I am, much like they did when I said Clemson would own them at home...
The Team: Ohio State
Their Current Ranking: Unranked
What they should be Ranked: Really, Really unranked
The Evidence: Oh how the mighty have fallen. The Buckeyes just completed their second week out of the top 25, a place they haven't dwelled since 2004. After losing to a massively underachieving Miami squad in week 3, Ohio State bounced back with a 20 point trouncing of Pac-12 newcomer Colorado, only to be beaten at home by Michigan State now. Ohio State's only other wins came at the likes of Toledo (barely) and Akron (who cares?). They are barely averaging 20 points a game against that competition, and are ranked in the bottom ten in all of FBS when it comes to passing yards.
Mark your Calendars: The hits are gonna keep coming. The Buckeyes will almost certainly drop their next three games- @Nebraska, @Illinois, and Wisconsin. That would drop THE Ohio State university (note the sarcastic capitalization, please) to 3-5. Sure, they have a bye week to prepare for Wisconsin. Is that gonna help them? Eh. Probably not. I won't completely write them off, as Ohio State has a physical enough d-line to stay in the game. But I still think Wisconsin's smash mouth run game is too much and they Badgers stroll out of Columbus with a win. The buckeyes limp to a 6-6 finish.
The Team: Michigan
Their Current Ranking: 12
What they should be Ranked: 22
The Evidence: Here are the four public opinion categories I have managed to hear so far about Michigan's football team this year:
1. THE SANE (roughly 25%)- Michigan is undefeated, but they don't really have any really great, quality wins. I'll keep an eye on them going forward, but I really would like to see more out of them before I buy i into the hype.
2. THE BANDWAGON/FANBOYS (roughly 60%)- Michigan is back! Denard Robinson is just as great a passer as he is a runner! They should have never switched away from a pro style offense, their offense is clicking on all cylinders! Michigan will probably win the Big 10 at this rate!
3. THE REDICULOUS (roughly 13%)- The Michigan Defense is elite, they're holding all those opponents they're playing to practically nothing! Did you see them shut out Minnesota? Denard Robinson for Heisman, the voting won't even be close!
4. THE MENTALLY ILL (roughly 2%)- Denard Robinson just surpassed Tim Tebow as the greatest college football player to live.
Look folks. Now that Virginia Tech has made me look like a genius (or someone with common sense?), I'm gonna lay off my friends in Blacksburg and concentrate on Michigan. The hype is getting rediculous people. Denard Robinson is not the greatest player in college football, even right now, let alone of all time. You're probably the same people that think Vick is the best player in the NFL. Is Denard the most elusive quarterback? Probably. The fastest? He's up there. The most exciting to watch? It's arguable. The best passer? Absolutely not. The Best? Umm, no. He's not the quarterback at Stanford, after all.
Robinson is averaging 168 yards passing per game. I've seen college Intramural quarterbacks throw for more than that. As for the most embarassing part of the Wolverines, the Michigan football team has not only played a rediculously meaningless schedule (take out the last second win against ehh-inspiring Notre Dame, and you've got a punchline of a September lineup), they haven't even left the school campus yet. The Minnesota blowout/shutout? Oh PLEASE. Minnesota just lost by 13 points at home to an FCS school. They could have forfeited the game against Michigan and it would have meant about as much.
Mark your Calendars: Don't look too far. Michigan will face an interesting test at Northwestern this weekend in a game that I have no idea how to gauge because I don't really know how good either of these teams are. The following weekend, get ready for a loss as the Wolverines travel to Michigan State. Illinois? Probable loss. Nebraska? Loss. Overrated? Big time.
This Weekend: 14/18
This Season: 52/60
Overrated Watchlist:
The Team: Oklahoma
Their Current Ranking: 3
What they should be Ranked: 14
The Evidence: Let's put it this way- Oklahoma's best win is on the road at the team currently in last place in the ACC. Yeah, I'm talking about Florida State, and until they aren't trailing Wake Forest in the ACC standings, I don't wanna hear about what a good win it was for the Sooners. Other wins include incredibly mediocre Missouri, Tulsa, and Ball State. There's a reason Oklahoma has dropped in the standings behind SEC teams. It's because other teams are proving they belong, and the Sooners aren't doing anything.
Mark your Calendars: Even though the Big 12 slate starts this weekend, Oklahoma probably won't see much of a challenge until November. The Red River Rivalry against equally overrated Texas is this Saturday and is followed by Kansas, Texas Tech, and Kansas State.
Side note: KSU just squeezed out a 1 point home win over Baylor, the only team in America that has yet to realize they must actually field a defense. The media was quick to jump to the massive conclusion that the wildcats are good, and threw them into the top 20 ranked teams. Are you seeing a pattern here with Big 12 teams and being overrated?
Anyway, Oklahoma hosts Texas A&M on November 5 and will travel to Baylor on November 19. Their finale is in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. The Sooners will faulter down the stretch as they play their best competition, dropping 2 of the 3 games I just mentioned.
The Team: Virginia Tech
Their Current Ranking:21
What they should be Ranked: 24
The Evidence: I admit it, this is less of a heads up and more of an I TOLD YOU SO. Whoops, was that accidentally in bold? My bad.
Virginia Tech allowed 10 ppg through the first 4 weeks, notching one of the best scoring defense marks in the country. Congrats- that was against two C-USA teams and two FCS squads. Clemson game to town and handed VT a twenty point loss, the second largest negative scoring differential for the castrated turkies in the last 30 years. I'm looking at the AP Poll trying to be fair, but honestly, the only teams in this poll that I think Tech is better than are the likes of Kansas State and Baylor.
Tech averages fewer than 200 yards passing for game. I know that comes with the territory of having a first year starter at quarterback, but regardless of the reasoning, that tends to make them a little too one dimensional on offense. I don't care if David Wilson runs a 2.9 in the 40, if all you can do is run, defenders are just going to crowd the box all day long. Tech needs to work on open field tackling and balancing out their offense if they want to get back into the ACC title race.
Mark your Calendars: In the preseason, I recall predicting Tech would cruise through ACC play only to get smashed in the title game by Florida State. It's clear to me now that Tech won't even do that. The Georgia Tech game is a loss, just go ahead and book that now. I also believe there will be a surprise loss in there- look at Miami, Wake Forest, or UVA to spring an upset.
VT fans may now proceed to tell me how rediculous I am, much like they did when I said Clemson would own them at home...
The Team: Ohio State
Their Current Ranking: Unranked
What they should be Ranked: Really, Really unranked
The Evidence: Oh how the mighty have fallen. The Buckeyes just completed their second week out of the top 25, a place they haven't dwelled since 2004. After losing to a massively underachieving Miami squad in week 3, Ohio State bounced back with a 20 point trouncing of Pac-12 newcomer Colorado, only to be beaten at home by Michigan State now. Ohio State's only other wins came at the likes of Toledo (barely) and Akron (who cares?). They are barely averaging 20 points a game against that competition, and are ranked in the bottom ten in all of FBS when it comes to passing yards.
Mark your Calendars: The hits are gonna keep coming. The Buckeyes will almost certainly drop their next three games- @Nebraska, @Illinois, and Wisconsin. That would drop THE Ohio State university (note the sarcastic capitalization, please) to 3-5. Sure, they have a bye week to prepare for Wisconsin. Is that gonna help them? Eh. Probably not. I won't completely write them off, as Ohio State has a physical enough d-line to stay in the game. But I still think Wisconsin's smash mouth run game is too much and they Badgers stroll out of Columbus with a win. The buckeyes limp to a 6-6 finish.
The Team: Michigan
Their Current Ranking: 12
What they should be Ranked: 22
The Evidence: Here are the four public opinion categories I have managed to hear so far about Michigan's football team this year:
1. THE SANE (roughly 25%)- Michigan is undefeated, but they don't really have any really great, quality wins. I'll keep an eye on them going forward, but I really would like to see more out of them before I buy i into the hype.
2. THE BANDWAGON/FANBOYS (roughly 60%)- Michigan is back! Denard Robinson is just as great a passer as he is a runner! They should have never switched away from a pro style offense, their offense is clicking on all cylinders! Michigan will probably win the Big 10 at this rate!
3. THE REDICULOUS (roughly 13%)- The Michigan Defense is elite, they're holding all those opponents they're playing to practically nothing! Did you see them shut out Minnesota? Denard Robinson for Heisman, the voting won't even be close!
4. THE MENTALLY ILL (roughly 2%)- Denard Robinson just surpassed Tim Tebow as the greatest college football player to live.
Look folks. Now that Virginia Tech has made me look like a genius (or someone with common sense?), I'm gonna lay off my friends in Blacksburg and concentrate on Michigan. The hype is getting rediculous people. Denard Robinson is not the greatest player in college football, even right now, let alone of all time. You're probably the same people that think Vick is the best player in the NFL. Is Denard the most elusive quarterback? Probably. The fastest? He's up there. The most exciting to watch? It's arguable. The best passer? Absolutely not. The Best? Umm, no. He's not the quarterback at Stanford, after all.
Robinson is averaging 168 yards passing per game. I've seen college Intramural quarterbacks throw for more than that. As for the most embarassing part of the Wolverines, the Michigan football team has not only played a rediculously meaningless schedule (take out the last second win against ehh-inspiring Notre Dame, and you've got a punchline of a September lineup), they haven't even left the school campus yet. The Minnesota blowout/shutout? Oh PLEASE. Minnesota just lost by 13 points at home to an FCS school. They could have forfeited the game against Michigan and it would have meant about as much.
Mark your Calendars: Don't look too far. Michigan will face an interesting test at Northwestern this weekend in a game that I have no idea how to gauge because I don't really know how good either of these teams are. The following weekend, get ready for a loss as the Wolverines travel to Michigan State. Illinois? Probable loss. Nebraska? Loss. Overrated? Big time.
This Weekend: 14/18
This Season: 52/60
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